国家统计局12月10日将发布11月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)月度报告， 《证券日报》记者近日采访了多位业内专家，对数据进行前瞻。 在CPI方面，民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，预计11月份CPI环比上 涨0.1%，同比上涨0.9%；兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委也认为，11月份CPI同比或上涨0.9%，较10月份 上升0.7个百分点。 分析原因，温彬表示，从食品价格来看，11月份农产品批发价格200指数均值环比上涨4.4%。其中，由 于气温降低，蔬菜、水果供应量下降、运输难度与成本增加，价格分别环比上涨10.1%、1.3%；产能释 放叠加市场需求偏弱，猪肉、鸡蛋价格承压，环比分别下降0.6%、2.3%。能源价格方面，11月10日国 内成品油价格上调后，因全球原油供应过剩预期加剧、地缘风险溢价削减等因素影响国际油价波动下 行，又于24日下调，整体来看涨幅高于跌幅，从而带动能源价格上涨。 在PPI方面，温彬预计，11月份PPI环比上涨0.2%，同比下跌2.0%；鲁政委认为，11月份，PPI同比或 为-2.2%，较10月份下降0.1个百分点。 鲁政委认为，工 ...

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Shenzhen increased by 0.7% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month in October 2025, while the purchasing prices for industrial producers decreased by 0.5% year-on-year and increased by 0.5% month-on-month [1][2] - For the period from January to October, the average PPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, while the purchasing prices fell by 0.3% year-on-year [1] Price Trends - Year-on-year, the prices of production materials decreased by 0.4%, with mining industry prices dropping by 10.5% and processing industry prices down by 0.4%. Raw materials prices increased by 1.2%. In contrast, living materials prices rose by 2.8%, with durable consumer goods prices down by 2.2% and clothing prices down by 1.7% [1] - Year-on-year, food prices increased by 2.2%, and general daily necessities saw a significant rise of 21.3% [1] - In terms of purchasing prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 8.1%, while prices for building materials and non-metallic products fell by 5.3% and wood and pulp prices dropped by 5.0%. Agricultural products prices decreased by 4.1% [1] Month-on-Month Changes - Month-on-month, production material prices increased by 0.1%, with mining prices down by 1.3% and both raw materials and processing prices up by 0.1%. Living materials prices rose by 1.2%, with food prices down by 1.3% [2] - Durable consumer goods prices increased by 0.3%, clothing prices rose by 0.6%, and general daily necessities prices surged by 4.8% [2] - For purchasing prices, building materials and non-metallic prices decreased by 0.8%, while fuel and power prices increased by 0.5% and chemical raw materials prices rose by 0.6% [2]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Guangdong increased by 0.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in October, indicating a rebound from previous declines [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to September [1] - The average CPI in Guangdong for the first ten months of the year decreased by 0.3% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Guangdong decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to September [2] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.2%, with production material prices shifting from a 0.3% decline in September to a 0.2% increase [2] - The prices of living materials also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reversing a 0.3% decline in September [2]

Group 1 - In October, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first rise of the year due to improved supply-demand relationships and international commodity price transmission [1] - The coal mining and washing industry saw a month-on-month price increase of 1.6%, while coal processing prices rose by 0.8%. Prices for photovoltaic equipment and components increased by 0.6%, continuing an upward trend for over two months [1] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal and oil-related industries showed divergence due to input factors, with domestic non-ferrous metal mining prices rising by 5.3% and oil and gas extraction prices declining by 2.3% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.1% in October, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing [2] - The coal mining and washing industry's year-on-year price decline narrowed by 1.2 percentage points due to increased capacity checks and safety regulations, along with rising winter storage and electricity demand [2] - The competitive order in the market is improving, leading to a gradual exit of backward production capacity, with year-on-year price declines in photovoltaic equipment, battery manufacturing, and automotive manufacturing narrowing by 1.4, 1.3, and 0.7 percentage points respectively [2]

Core Insights - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.6%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][2][4] - The core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the highest point since February 2023, driven by increased service prices and improvements in industrial consumer goods prices due to "anti-involution" policies [1][4][5] Price Movements - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices increased by 5.7% and 2.2% month-on-month, respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors and the demand surge during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [1][3][4] - Pork prices continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year drop of 20.2%, attributed to sufficient market supply and the timing of seasonal consumption [1][3][4] - Egg prices also fell by 1.3% month-on-month due to temporary oversupply and reduced demand post-holiday [4] Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI in Sichuan decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, reversing from an increase in the previous month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5% [1][6][7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month price drop of 0.5%, while electricity and heat production prices also fell [6][7] - Despite the overall decline, some industries, such as computer manufacturing and non-ferrous metal processing, showed signs of price recovery [7][8] Economic Outlook - The ongoing implementation of demand expansion policies and improvements in market competition are expected to stabilize and potentially increase prices in certain sectors [5][8] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting the PPI, leading to a reduction in price declines in various industries [6][8] - The real estate market's adjustment continues to exert downward pressure on prices in sectors like black metals and building materials, which may hinder PPI recovery [8]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in October, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shifted from flat to a 0.1% increase month-on-month, representing the first increase of the year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Service prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month after a 0.3% decline in the previous month, contributing approximately 0.07 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] Group 2 - Food and energy prices remain low, but their rate of decline has narrowed, with service prices increasing by 0.8% in October, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 2.0%, marking the sixth consecutive month of increase [1] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are showing effects, with prices of household appliances, cultural and entertainment durable goods, and daily necessities increasing between 2.4% and 5.0% [1]

Group 1 - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, marking a shift from decline to growth, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month [1] Group 2 - In October, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first increase of the year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points for the third consecutive month [1] - The continuous improvement in supply and demand relationships in certain domestic industries has led to price increases in key sectors such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, with prices rising for over two consecutive months [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices down 2.9% and non-food prices up 0.9%. The average CPI from January to October decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The average PPI from January to October decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [4]. - China's gold reserves at the end of October 2025 were 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 300,000 ounces from the end of August, showing a continuous increase for 12 months. The scale of foreign exchange reserves at the end of October was US$3.3433 trillion, an increase of US$470 million from the end of September, with a growth rate of 0.14% [4]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The operating income was 102.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [5]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year-on-year growth rates from Q2 2023 to Q3 2025 were 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively. Different industries showed varying growth trends during this period [7]. - The contributions of different industries to the GDP growth rate also changed over time. For example, the contribution of the primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry to the constant-price GDP year-on-year growth rate and the pull effect on GDP showed different trends from 2013 to 2025 [13]. Industry - The year-on-year growth rates of added value in different industries showed fluctuations. For example, the coal mining and washing industry, oil and gas extraction industry, and other industries had different growth rates from August 2024 to September 2025 [22]. - The output of major industrial products also showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil, coal, steel, and other products changed from September 2024 to September 2025 [24]. - In September 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The electricity consumption of different industries also showed different growth trends [31]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Different industries had different profit growth rates, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline [5][35]. - As of the end of September 2025, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. The inventory turnover days were 20.2 days, an increase of 0.2 days compared to the same period last year [5]. Price Index - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices having a significant impact on the CPI decline. Different CPI sub-items showed different year-on-year and month-on-month changes [4][49]. - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing. Different industries' PPI also showed different trends, with production materials prices generally declining more than living materials prices [56]. - The purchase price of industrial producers also showed different trends, with some categories such as fuel and power showing a decline, while others such as non-ferrous metal materials and wires showing an increase [60].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% both year-on-year and month-on-month, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [3][7][8] - The rise in CPI was influenced by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and the effects of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [4][6] - Food prices increased by 0.3% in October, contrary to the seasonal expectation of a decline, with significant price rises in fresh vegetables, lamb, fresh fruits, and seafood [7][8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, marking the first positive change of the year, while the year-on-year decline was 2.1%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [8][10] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries contributed to the price increases, particularly in coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [10][11] - The prices of non-ferrous metals rose significantly due to international price increases, with the mining sector seeing a month-on-month rise of 5.3% [10][11]

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a comprehensive improvement in price data, with a steady recovery in domestic consumption demand, particularly in service consumption [1][3][6] CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, reversing a previous decline of 0.3% [3][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and the sixth consecutive month of growth [2][3][6] - Service prices increased by 0.2%, with significant rises in hotel accommodation (8.6%), airfares (4.5%), and travel costs (2.5%), all exceeding seasonal levels [5][6] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise of the year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1% [1][8] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships led to price increases in several industries, including coal mining (1.6%) and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing (0.6%) [8][9] - The ongoing governance of production capacity and safety regulations has contributed to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in key industries [8][9] Future Outlook - The overall price structure is expected to strengthen, with the core CPI's upward momentum likely to become more pronounced, driving the overall price index higher [6][9] - The recovery in domestic demand is anticipated to continue supporting industrial product prices, with the PPI's year-on-year decline expected to further narrow [8][9]