机构：中金公司 研究员：Yan CHEN/Hanxiao WU four expense items fell 13% YoY to Rmb2.12bn, and its expense ratio dropped 0.1ppt YoY to 10.6%. We believe that the decline in cement sales volume might be much smaller than the decline in expenses, and that the firm's expenses per tonne declined YoY in 3Q25. 4) Capex increased marginally. In 1-3Q25, cumulative net operating cash flow rose 7% YoY to Rmb11.1bn, cumulative capex reached Rmb6.5bn, and free cash flow remained abundant at Rmb4.6bn. Trends to watch We suggest keep ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index fell by 4.0% and 3.7% respectively last week, primarily due to tariff issues and concerns surrounding U.S. regional banks Zions and Western Alliance involved in credit fraud cases [1] - On Friday, the Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index dropped by 2.5% and 2.7% respectively, with major sectors like technology, healthcare, brokerage, and automotive seeing significant declines, while gold-related stocks like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook rose due to increasing gold prices [1] Company Performance - Chow Tai Fook reported a recovery in same-store sales growth in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau for Q2 (July-September), with retail value increasing by 4.1% year-on-year [1] - Insurance companies, including China Pacific Insurance and China Life, released positive profit forecasts, expecting net profit growth of 40%-60% and 50%-70% respectively for the first three quarters [2] Macroeconomic Dynamics - The Eurozone's harmonized consumer price index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from August, aligning with Bloomberg's forecast [3] - Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding both August's figures and Bloomberg's predictions by 0.1 percentage points [3] Industry Dynamics - In the gaming sector, Macau's gaming revenue for Q3 reached 62.57 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4% [4] - Despite a general decline in Hong Kong stocks due to fluctuations in U.S.-China trade relations, new consumer stocks like Lao Pu Gold performed well, rising by 18.0% last week [4] - In the automotive sector, NIO responded to GIC's allegations, stating that the related unfounded claims were investigated three years ago, with its stock rebounding by 2.1% on Friday after a 12.9% decline over the week [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry saw a general decline last week, influenced by U.S. Senate discussions on banning certain Chinese biotech companies from receiving federal funding and President Trump's remarks on lowering prices for popular diabetes and weight loss drugs [5] - Despite these challenges, Chinese pharmaceutical companies have made significant progress in overseas licensing, with Hansoh Pharmaceutical granting Roche rights to develop and commercialize a colorectal cancer drug outside of mainland China and Hong Kong, receiving an upfront payment of $80 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.45 billion [5] New Energy and Utilities - The new energy and utilities sector in Hong Kong experienced a general decline, although defensive stocks like Huaneng International, China Everbright Environment, and Power Assets Holdings saw gains of 3.9%, 6.6%, and 2.1% respectively [6] - The photovoltaic sector faced notable declines, with companies like Xinyi Solar, Flat Glass Group, and GCL-Poly Energy dropping by 4.5%, 3.9%, and 0.8% respectively [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant inflow of 34 billion yuan into dividend low-volatility ETFs, indicating a divergence in fund allocation as investors seek both offensive and defensive positions in the market [2][10][16] - Gold and silver have shown strong performance, with silver futures rising by 7.15% and gold futures achieving a record nine consecutive weekly gains, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets [4][9] - The average weekly return for commodity ETFs was notably high at 9.05%, while stock and cross-border ETFs experienced an average decline of over 3% [4][10] Group 2 - In the stock ETF segment, traditional energy and banking sectors have shown resilience, with the banking sector experiencing its first significant weekly gain since early July [13][16] - The report suggests that investors should consider reallocating to new economy sectors such as artificial intelligence and robotics during market adjustments, while also recognizing seasonal opportunities in high-dividend coal stocks [13][16] - The bond ETF segment saw a net outflow of 138.97 billion yuan, with convertible bond ETFs underperforming due to pressure from equity funds, while long-term interest rate bonds showed stronger performance [17][19] Group 3 - The analysis of financing and margin trading indicates a split in high-risk leveraged funds, with some betting on safe-haven assets like gold and others on technology sectors supported by loose monetary policy [20][21] - The report emphasizes that the divergence in fund flows between recession and growth bets is expected to converge, depending on economic recovery or recession risks [20]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months [1][4] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a "tail effect," with food prices dropping by 4.4%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [4][5] - The increase in core CPI is attributed to the effects of consumption promotion policies and rising prices in appliances and mobile phones, which offset the decline in food prices [4][5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, a reduction in the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [6][7] - The flat PPI reflects weak domestic demand despite stable international oil prices and rising copper prices, with certain export-heavy industries facing price pressures [6][7] - Future PPI trends are expected to remain flat in October, with a year-on-year decline projected to be around 2.2%, indicating challenges in turning positive by year-end [6][7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve officials show significant divergence regarding future interest rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the outlook[2] - Powell indicates that any rate cuts will likely be slow and moderate unless there is a clear economic downturn[2] - U.S. economic data remains resilient, with PPI's year-on-year decline narrowing and industrial profits turning positive, suggesting the effectiveness of anti-involution measures[2] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - As of September 26, 2023, passenger car sales reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 5.9%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2118.6, up 5.9% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year, indicating strong export resilience[2] - Industrial production shows a month-on-month increase, with average blast furnace operating rates rising by 0.47 percentage points to 84.47%[2] Group 3: Price Trends and Inflation - As of September 26, 2023, pork prices fell by 0.94% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 1.16%[2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a slight increase in food prices, with energy prices rising by 0.8% and food prices by 0.5%[4] - Core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation levels[4] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - This week, ordinary government bonds issued totaled 247.5 billion, with an issuance progress of 79%[3] - The central bank's net MLF injection was 300 billion, signaling a monetary easing policy[3] - The yield curve for government bonds steepened, with the 30-year yield at 2.217% and the 10-year yield at 1.8768%[3]

Core Viewpoint - Sinopec's stock has declined nearly 4% following the release of its mid-year financial results, reflecting significant drops in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Sinopec reported a revenue of 1.41 trillion yuan for the first half of the year, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.483 billion yuan, down 39.8% year-on-year [1] - Main business revenue for the first half was 1.3804 trillion yuan, a decline of 10.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of oil and petrochemical products as well as decreased sales volumes [1] Quarterly Insights - UBS reported that Sinopec's net profit for the second quarter was 8.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 53% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38% [1] - The firm anticipates a slight improvement in Sinopec's profitability for the third quarter, citing stable oil prices compared to the previous quarter and minimal negative impact from crude oil inventory [1] - The third quarter is traditionally a peak season for chemical products, which may lead to increased profits in that segment [1] Long-term Outlook - UBS believes that China's anti-involution measures, combined with the exit of foreign production capacity, will enhance the fundamentals of refining in the long term [1] - Sinopec has lowered its full-year capital expenditure guidance by 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sinopec's stock has declined nearly 4% following the release of its mid-year financial results, reflecting a significant drop in revenue and profit compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Sinopec reported a revenue of 1.41 trillion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.483 billion yuan, down 39.8% year-on-year [1] - Main business revenue for the first half was 1.3804 trillion yuan, a decline of 10.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of oil and petrochemical products as well as decreased sales volumes [1] Quarterly Insights - UBS reported that Sinopec's net profit for the second quarter was 8.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 53% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38% [1] - The firm anticipates a slight improvement in Sinopec's profitability for the third quarter, citing stable oil prices compared to the previous quarter and minimal negative impact from crude oil inventory [1] - The third quarter is traditionally a peak season for chemical products, which may lead to increased profits in that segment [1] Long-term Outlook - UBS believes that China's anti-involution measures, combined with the exit of foreign production capacity, will enhance the fundamentals of refining in the long term [1] - Sinopec has lowered its full-year capital expenditure guidance by 5% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, domestic urea's domestic demand was insufficient, dragging down the price. On Friday, the anti - involution measures continued to ferment, increasing the market's expectation of capacity reduction, which stimulated capital sentiment. Bulls entered the market, leading to a sharp rise today. However, the fundamentals have not significantly improved. With export containerization ongoing, there is a game between upward and downward support pressures, and the market is oscillating strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, domestic demand for urea was insufficient, and the spot price decreased. In the second half, upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, and order collection improved. Since the weekend, the urea price has been rising steadily, and some factories have restricted sales or stopped accepting orders today [4] 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. On Monday this week, the main contract opened with a gap up and oscillated strongly. As of July 21, the urea main September contract closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the settlement price on July 14. The weekly trading volume of the main contract last week was 17.8598 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 674,500 tons; the open interest was 6.6731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 103,700 tons. Affected by anti - involution measures, the futures market opened with a gap up. Last week, the futures price increase was stronger than the spot price increase, and the basis weakened [7] 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly urea output decreased. Coal - based weekly output showed a slight increase, while gas - based weekly output decreased significantly. Next week, 4 - 5 factories are expected to resume production, and the output is expected to recover. As of July 21, the national daily urea output was 197,500 tons, with an operating rate of 84.07%. In the raw material market, coal prices generally rose, and the price of liquefied natural gas increased. The price of synthetic ammonia decreased, and the price of methanol increased [13][15][16] 4. Urea Demand - side - Last week, the compound fertilizer price increased. The raw material procurement of nitrogen fertilizer for autumn fertilizer preparation has reached 30%, but the demand for urea is limited. The operating rate of compound fertilizer and melamine increased. As of July 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to rise in the second half of the year [18][20] 5. International Market - India's demand is strong, and RCF's urea import tender was settled at 1.47 million tons. It is expected to conduct another import tender in August. Other regions are cautious about following high prices, and the urea price is expected to weaken. As of July 17, the FOB prices of small and large - sized urea in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [22]