导语 上游行业价格出现回升，中下游仍需更多政策支持。 国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉表示，从总的数据变化看，工业利润的改善与营收增长、成本下降，其他相关财务指标好转等情况是 相互印证、相互匹配的，这也证明了当前工业利润边际改善的加快，对市场预期起到较好的提振作用，也为全年工业利润改善打下了良好的基础。 价格改善是利润增长的重要原因。从量、价、利润率三要素来看，8月生产的韧性、工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）跌幅的收窄和利润率的持续改善，共 同支撑工业企业利润回升。8月PPI同比下降2.9%，降幅比7月收窄0.7个百分点，为今年3月份以来首次收窄；环比则结束连续8个月的下行态势，由7月下 降0.2%转为持平。 综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争已取得积极成效，政策后续如何发力备受期待。 国家统计局近日发布的多项数据显示，相关行业的利润和价格都出现改善。比如，1～8月原材料制造业利润同比增长22.1%，钢铁行业同比扭亏为盈。8 月份光伏、新能源车整车制造价格同比降幅分别收窄2.8和0.6个百分点。 "反内卷"依然是一场持久战。国资委主任张玉卓日前主持召开部分国有企业经济运行座谈会，要求中央企业带头坚决抵制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing efforts to combat "involution" and disordered competition in various industries have shown positive results, with expectations for further policy support to sustain this momentum [1][7]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Improvement - From January to August, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises turned from a decline of 1.7% to a growth of 0.9%, marking a significant recovery [2]. - In August alone, industrial profits saw a notable increase of 20.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 1.5% [2]. - The improvement in industrial profits is attributed to macroeconomic policies, a unified national market, and a low base effect from the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 2.9% in August, the smallest drop since March, indicating a recovery in pricing power [3]. - Specific industries, such as coal processing and steel manufacturing, experienced reduced price declines, contributing to the overall improvement in industrial profits [3][4]. - The recovery in prices is linked to enhanced market competition and effective governance of industry practices [3][7]. Group 3: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing targeted policies to stimulate downstream demand, particularly in consumer goods and real estate [1][6]. - Analysts suggest that if policies effectively boost demand, the benefits of profit improvements could extend to downstream sectors, leading to a more comprehensive recovery in industrial profits [6][8]. - Recent government initiatives focus on stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel and automotive, emphasizing the need for structured governance and competition regulation [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of upstream industry prices has been observed, while the midstream and downstream sectors still require more policy support to combat "involution" and promote sustainable development [1][5][7] Group 1: Industrial Profit and Price Trends - From January to August, the profit of the raw materials manufacturing industry increased by 22.1% year-on-year, with the steel industry turning from loss to profit [1][5] - The overall industrial profit growth turned positive, with a 0.9% increase in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises from January to August, reversing a decline since May [2][4] - In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline narrowed to 2.9% year-on-year, marking the first reduction in the decline since March [3][4] Group 2: Policy Measures and Industry Support - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to resist "involution" and promote healthy competition [1][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released multiple industry stabilization plans, focusing on sectors like automotive, steel, and non-ferrous metals to enhance governance and competition order [7][8] - Future policies should focus on expanding domestic demand and ensuring the effective implementation of "anti-involution" measures to support downstream industries [6][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Despite improvements in industrial profits, revenue growth indicates that demand has not significantly improved, with rising inventory levels and longer accounts receivable periods [4][6] - The structural differentiation of profits between upstream and downstream industries persists, with upstream benefiting from "anti-involution" policies while downstream remains constrained by weak terminal demand [6][8] - The steel industry faces challenges with excess capacity and demand imbalance, necessitating precise capacity control and supply-demand coordination [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the persistent low inflation in China as a significant challenge for the economy, affecting both macroeconomic stability and microeconomic sentiment [1][8][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a positive trend, with the core CPI rising by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the highest level since February 2024, indicating potential recovery in prices [1][4][3] - The industrial producer price index (PPI) has also shown signs of improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9% in August, a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [6][8] Group 2 - Experts emphasize the need for a combination of short-term policies and long-term reforms to stabilize prices, suggesting a target CPI growth of 2% as a long-term goal for the 14th Five-Year Plan [11][12] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a crucial measure for structural adjustment in the economy, aimed at reducing excess capacity and optimizing supply structures [12][10] - The current economic environment is characterized by insufficient demand, which is expected to continue influencing price trends during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [9][8]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in August is stable, with steady progress and no change in the growth stability [2][4][11] - Industrial production shows rapid growth, with the industrial added value increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [4] - The service sector also performs well, with a production index growth of 5.6% year-on-year, surpassing industrial growth [4] Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales from January to August increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [5] - Fixed asset investment rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate, it grew by 4.2% [5] - Consumer goods retail sales in August increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with significant growth in furniture and home appliances [8] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, unchanged from the previous year [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to falling food prices, while core CPI rose by 0.9% [7] Trade Performance - In August, the total import and export value of goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [6] Industrial and Technological Development - The manufacturing sector shows positive trends, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increasing by 9.3% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [10] - New energy vehicles and related components saw significant production increases, with new energy vehicle production up by 22.7% [10] Policy Impact - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [11] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the economy are showing positive results, with various sectors experiencing growth [12] Future Outlook - Despite external challenges, the foundation for economic growth remains strong, with potential for continued stable and progressive development [12][13]

9月15日，国家统计局新闻发言人就2025年8月份国民经济运行情况答记者问。会上，有记者提问"8月 份，PPI 环比结束连续 8 个月下行态势，同比降幅收窄。PPI 出现积极变化，背后的主要原因是什么?预 计后续 PPI 走势如何?" 对此，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，在宏观政策发力显 效、全国统一大市场建设纵深推进、企业竞争秩序逐步优化、新动能快速成长等因素带动下，8月份PPI 环比由降转平，同比降幅收窄。8月份，PPI同比下降2.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.7个百分点;环比持平，上 月环比下降0.2%。 8月份PPI同比降幅明显收窄：一是市场竞争秩序得到优化。近期相关部门积极推进行业自律，倡导抵制 企业无序竞争，推动重点行业产能治理，效果逐步显现。8月份，煤炭加工、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工 业、煤炭开采和洗选业出厂价格比上月收窄3.2-10.3个百分点，光伏设备及元器件制造、新能源车整车 制造价格同比降幅分别收窄2.8和0.6个百分点，上述5个行业对PPI同比的下拉影响比上月减少约0.5个百 分点。 二是新兴行业需求带动增强。随着我国经济结构调整稳步推进，产业高端化、智能化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson, Fu Linghui, announced that recent efforts to promote industry self-discipline and resist disorderly competition have shown gradual effects, particularly in key industries [1] Group 1: Industry Price Changes - In August, the ex-factory prices in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling industries, and coal mining and washing industries narrowed by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [1] - The price decline in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, as well as new energy vehicle manufacturing, saw year-on-year reductions narrow by 2.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The downward impact of these five industries on the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that recent industry self-regulation measures have shown positive effects, leading to a reduction in price declines in certain sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In August, the ex-factory prices in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, and coal mining and washing industries narrowed their decline by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [1] - The price decline in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, as well as in new energy vehicle manufacturing, decreased year-on-year by 2.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The impact of these five industries on the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) has reduced by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in August 2025 shows stability and progress, with macro policies effectively supporting high-quality development despite external uncertainties and risks [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Month-on-month, the PPI remained flat, ending an eight-month streak of negative growth [5][6]. - The PPI's year-on-year decline was influenced by improved market competition order, with significant price reductions in industries such as coal processing and black metal smelting, which saw price decreases narrow by 3.2% to 10.3% [6][7]. Group 2: Factors Influencing PPI - The optimization of market competition order has been a key factor, with government initiatives promoting industry self-discipline and curbing disorderly competition, leading to a reduced downward impact on PPI from key industries [6][7]. - Demand from emerging industries has strengthened, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing rising by 1.1%, and smart wearable devices increasing by 1.6% year-on-year [6][7]. - Consumption-boosting policies have shown positive effects, with prices in certain consumer goods sectors, such as arts and crafts, increasing by 13% year-on-year, indicating a rise in demand for upgraded products [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the positive changes, the PPI remains in a declining range, which poses challenges for industrial enterprises. Future efforts should focus on expanding domestic demand and further promoting a unified national market to stabilize industrial prices [7].

Group 1 - In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month-on-month change shifted from a decrease of 0.2% to flat, ending an eight-month negative growth trend [1] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to macro policy effectiveness, the deepening of the national unified market construction, optimization of enterprise competition order, and rapid growth of new driving forces [1][2] - The optimization of market competition order has been a significant factor, with key industries such as coal processing and black metal smelting seeing price reductions narrowing by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [2] Group 2 - Demand from emerging industries has strengthened, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing manufacturing increasing by 1.1%, and shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing prices rising by 0.9% [2] - Consumption-boosting policies have shown effects, with prices in categories such as arts and crafts manufacturing increasing by 13% year-on-year, and sports equipment prices rising by 4.7% [3] - Despite the positive changes, PPI remains in a declining range, which is unfavorable for industrial enterprise operations, indicating a need for further expansion of domestic demand and regulation of competition [3]