Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate concerns about recent tariff policy changes potentially leading Japanese companies to excessively cut costs, which could suppress wage growth and investment [1] Group 1 - A member of the Bank of Japan emphasized the need for careful evaluation of recent tariff policy changes [1] - There is a risk that these changes may prompt Japanese companies to implement aggressive cost-cutting measures [1] - Such cost-cutting could have negative implications for wage growth and overall investment in the economy [1]

工资增长放缓可能不足以加快降息步伐，因为政策制定者仍担心通胀和关税对经济增长的影响。几乎所 有经济学家和市场都预计，英国央行将在8月进行下一次降息，并在年底前再降息一次，降至3.75%。 自2024年8月以来，英国央行仅在每个季度降息一次，总共降息四次，原因是持续的通胀压力和工资增 长。5月的货币政策委员会以5比4的投票结果将利率从4.5%降至4.25%，决策分歧较大。 本周较弱的劳 动力市场数据帮助恢复了市场对英国央行继续按季度降息的预期，尽管就业税增加和最低工资推高了4 月的劳动力成本。英国4月工资增长放缓至5%以上，仍高于英国央行的舒适水平，5月公司员工数量下 降，失业率升至2021年以来最高水平。英国国家统计局报告称，4月消费者价格通胀从3月的2.6%升至 3.5%，但随后修正为3.4%。 ⑼金融市场目前预计英国央行将再降息两次，每次25个基点，这一预期在 以色列对伊朗发动大规模军事打击后略有下降。英国央行的降息速度远慢于欧洲央行，后者自2024年6 月以来已降息2个百分点。 英镑兑美元相对强弱指标(RSI)运行于58一线，虽未进入超买区间，但高位回落趋势明显，反映多头动 能逐步减弱。若RSI继续跌破 ...

欧洲央行的工资追踪显示，2025年谈判工资将增长3.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The UK job market shows signs of distress, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years, but this may not prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting due to persistent inflation above target levels [1] - Average regular wages in the UK increased by 5.2% over the three months to April, which, despite a slowdown, remains above inflation levels, causing concern for the Bank of England regarding potential inflationary effects [2] - The Bank of Japan faces significant obstacles to raising interest rates this year, including the impact of US tariffs on the domestic economy and price levels, as well as government economic stimulus measures [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that Japan is still some distance from achieving the 2% inflation target, which has led to a depreciation of the yen, although he denied the possibility of rate cuts [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance and not lower interest rates in the short term, as uncertainties related to tariffs and the labor market persist [2] - Analysts suggest that the worst effects of US tariffs may end by January 2026, with expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise rates in that timeframe while keeping rates unchanged in the fiscal year 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of wages in the U.S. is driving inflation in the service sector, with wages increasing at a rate of over 3% [1] Group 1 - Analysts indicate that businesses are compelled to pass on wage increases to consumers, contributing significantly to inflation in the service industry [1] - The current trend of wage growth and its impact on inflation appears to be consistent with observations over the past 18 months, showing no signs of slowing down [1]

金十数据6月6日讯，机构分析师就美国非农报告表示，失业率保持稳定，工资增长超出预期，工资时薪 小幅上涨，这将平息人们对劳动力市场开始大幅放缓的担忧。5月就业人数增幅超过预期中值，但前两 个月的累计下修为95,000人，远远抵消了5月超出预期的影响。分析师指出，制造业就业人数减少8000 人并不是特朗普政府希望看到的。毫无疑问，我们将听到白宫经济团队发出预测，即随着包括苹果在内 的许多公司承诺在美国的投资开始，这种情况将会好转。 分析师：美国失业率保持稳定 劳动市场大幅放缓的担忧将平息 ...

欧洲央行：工资增长仍然较高，但持续放缓。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周四公布的日本最新工资数据对寻求进一步加息以推进货币政策正常化的日本央行而言是一个积极的进展。数据显示，日本4月基本工 资同比增长2.2%，高于3月经修正后的1.4%;名义工资同比增长2.3%，不及经济学家预期的2.6%。一项更稳定的工资趋势指标则显示，全职工人的工资同比 上涨了2.5%，连续第20个月保持在2%或以上(该指标避免了抽样问题，也不包括奖金和加班费)。但不利的一方面是，实际薪资收入同比下降了1.8%，大于 市场预期的1.6%降幅。 在年度劳资谈判之后，工资前景普遍乐观。日本企业连续第二年承诺将工资提高5%以上。据日本最大工会联合会Rengo的最新统计，一些工人获得了30多年 来最大幅度的加薪。根据日本央行以往研究，这些加薪将在6月左右的工资单中更全面地体现出来。 不过，也有一些经济学家警告称，美国总统特朗普的关税可能压缩企业利润，限制部分企业为员工提供更慷慨薪资的能力。日本央行在其最新的展望报告中 指出，名义工资增长的速度可能会因企业利润下降而在未来放缓，但并未进一步说明具体背景。 Bloomberg Economics经济学家Taro Kimura指出，前几个月的数据受到闰 ...

英国央行行长贝利：工资增长高于与2%通胀目标相符的水平，但低于二月份的预期。 ...

英国央行副行长布里登：没有理由怀疑代理机构薪酬调查的指引，预计今年年底工资增长将降至 3.7%-3.8%。 ...