文/中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长 盛松成 ，宁波财 经学院会计学院讲师 汪恒 中国房地产正站在新旧模式转换的关键节点。"十五五"规划为行业明确 了"先化风险、再谋新路"的清晰路径。现阶段，须以稳住市场为前提，以 构建新模式为核心，以提升居住品质为根本，通过分层供给、因城施策、 财政协同等多维发力，推动房地产真正回归居住本源，实现从规模扩张向 质量提升的深刻转型。这不仅关乎行业自身可持续发展，更是中国经济行 稳致远的基本要求。 旧有的房地产发展模式具有鲜明的时代特征，基本符合过去我国快速城镇化进程的需要。旺盛的住房需求、多元的供给主 体、"土地财政"的支持以及金融体系的深度参与，共同推动了行业二十多年的高速增长。从短缺经济中崛起的中国房地产业牢牢 把握解决中国百姓不够住的这一历史命题，各参与方均以拉动投资为主要手段推动行业发展并带动经济增长。我国人均城镇住宅 建筑面积由1998年的18.7平方米上升到2023年的超过40平方米，以美国六分之一的人均GDP实现了三分之二的人均住房面积，房 地产业占GDP的比重由1998年的4.58%上升到2025年的5.92%。 去风险是当前行业发展第一要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of the real estate industry from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, with 2025 being a pivotal year for establishing a new development model framework, supported by comprehensive policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing inventory issues [6][10][19]. Policy Framework and Market Stabilization - The central government has strengthened top-level design, incorporating high-quality real estate development into the "14th Five-Year Plan" as part of the social welfare framework, indicating a long-term direction for the new development model [6][21]. - Policies are being implemented to coordinate supply and demand, including optimizing land reserves through special bonds and adjusting personal housing fund loan rates to stimulate housing demand [6][10]. - Urban renewal has become a strategic focus, with multiple ministries promoting the renovation of urban villages and old communities to address resource idleness and meet new urbanization demands [6][10][12]. - The construction of "good houses" is being advanced, with regulations defining quality standards for residential projects and promoting a shift from single development to quality service [6][10][12]. Market Trends and Inventory Management - By the end of November, the inventory of unsold commercial housing had decreased for ten consecutive months, indicating a trend of market stabilization and reduced inventory pressure [10][12]. - The core task for the industry is to consolidate existing stabilization achievements and ensure continued improvement in market conditions through coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides [10][12]. Future Outlook - In 2026, real estate policies are expected to continue focusing on stabilizing the market and constructing a new model, with supply-side measures aimed at optimizing land supply and demand-side measures aimed at reducing housing costs [8][19]. - The article anticipates that the real estate industry will gradually form a balanced supply and demand structure, with stable prices and improved quality, providing solid support for high-quality economic and social development [8][19]. Key Policy Developments - A series of policies were introduced throughout the year, including the adjustment of personal housing fund loan rates and the promotion of high-quality housing supply, which collectively laid the groundwork for market recovery [11][12][14]. - The "good house" initiative has been supported by local governments, with over 700 policies released to stabilize the market, focusing on optimizing housing funds and ensuring affordable housing supply [35][36]. Urban Renewal and Quality Housing - Urban renewal has been highlighted as a critical strategy for stabilizing the market, addressing both immediate housing needs and long-term urban development goals [30][31]. - The "good house" initiative aims to enhance housing quality through comprehensive standards and lifecycle management, aligning with the evolving demands of residents for better living conditions [30][41].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 本报记者 张芗逸 2月10日，中国人民银行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》）。 对于2025年的货币政策操作，《报告》提到，支持房地产平稳健康发展。稳步实施保障性住房再贷款政 策。优化抵押补充贷款管理，支持政策性开发性金融机构为保障性住房建设、城中村改造、"平急两 用"公共基础设施建设等提供信贷支持，2025年末抵押补充贷款余额1.0万亿元。 保障性住房再贷款创设于2024年，用于激励银行发放贷款支持地方国企收购已建成存量商品房用作保障 性住房。2025年，中国人民银行对保障性住房再贷款进行了多次优化。 2025年5月份，中国人民银行决定下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点。同年7月份，中国人民银行印发《关于 拓宽保障性住房再贷款使用范围的通知》，拓宽保障性住房再贷款支持范围，加强与相关部门政策的统 筹协调，给予地方政府更大自主权，推动存量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing targeted monetary policies to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate sector, particularly through the promotion of affordable housing and urban village renovations [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC's report outlines the implementation of a re-loan policy for affordable housing, with a target balance of 1 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [1]. - In May 2025, the PBOC reduced the re-loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and in July, it expanded the scope of the re-loan policy to enhance coordination with relevant departments [1]. - By December 2025, the interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans are expected to be around 3.1%, marking a decline of 2.5 and 2.7 percentage points respectively since the second half of 2018 [2]. Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - The reduction in housing loan interest rates and down payment ratios in 2025 is expected to significantly lower purchasing costs, thereby increasing the willingness of buyers to enter the market [2]. - The PBOC is guiding localities to implement more flexible credit policies, with moderate easing in core cities and comprehensive easing in more small and medium-sized cities, leading to improved market expectations [2]. Group 3: Future Financial Support - There is considerable potential for future financial support for the real estate sector, as indicated by ongoing pilot projects in cities like Shanghai, which involve state-owned enterprises acquiring older properties [3]. - The use of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) is encouraged to revitalize existing real estate and attract more social capital into the sector [3].

始于去年年末的楼市翘尾行情，至今仍在持续。综合多家机构的研究数据，2026年重点城市房地产市场 交易继续保持热度，其中占据市场主流的二手房交易，尤其值得关注。 根据中指研究院的数据，今年1月，20城二手住宅共成交11.8万套，环比微降3.1%，同比增长 15.3%，"市场整体交易保持一定活跃度"。 二手房交易同比升温，与春节假期错位有关，但即使从绝对规模来看，重点城市也表现不俗。以上海为 例，1月上海二手商品房成交2.28万套，环比增长1.1%，同比增长26.1%，仍是表现最好的城市。 另一个值得关注的变化是，在二手房交易中，业主议价空间略有收窄，说明以价换量的情况有所缓和。 在部分区域，市场交易价格有所上调。 从数据层面来看，经过近年来的调整，房地产市场的量、价均有止跌趋势。与此同时，自去年末以来， 政策端不断释放利好消息，尤其是着眼于长远发展的中长期利好，市场预期也较此前大幅改善。 尽管仍有不同看法，但越来越多的观点认为，2026年房地产市场有望迎来"底部确认"。 "必要的出清" 在多数市场人士看来，本轮房地产市场的调整始于2021年下半年，主要体现在两个方面。一方面，房地 产市场的量、价出现持续调整；另 ...

证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 行业研究 春节假期临近，关注节后需求——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 2 日至 2 月 8 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为-1 BP 至 4 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债保持零发行，公司债、中期票据、定向工具发行金额增加，短期融资 券发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，短期融资券净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债 净融资额为负，其余品种 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while monitoring liquidity and financial market changes [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the importance of maintaining liquidity in the banking system and using various monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable growth in social financing and money supply, aligning with economic growth and price expectations [1] - Experts suggest that the cumulative effects of the moderately accommodative monetary policy will continue to manifest, with both incremental and stock policies working together to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] Group 2: Support for Economic Structure Transformation - The report includes measures to optimize financial services to support economic structure transformation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [2] - In January 2026, the PBOC announced policies to lower interest rates on structural monetary policy tools and enhance support for key areas, indicating a comprehensive coverage of financial services for the "Five Major Financial Tasks" [2] Group 3: Financial Support for Consumption and Housing - The report stresses the need to build a robust pension financial system and support the development of the silver economy, while also promoting financial policies to boost service consumption and improve housing finance systems [3] Group 4: Monetary Policy Transmission - The report calls for deepening interest rate marketization reforms and improving the transmission channels of monetary policy, ensuring that short-term market interest rates align with central bank policy rates [4] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border capital flows and maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate within a reasonable range [4] Group 5: Liquidity Management - Recent statistics indicate that the PBOC has injected a net of 6 trillion yuan into the market through open market operations in 2025, reflecting a relatively loose social financing condition [5] - The adjustment in asset allocation by residents does not imply significant changes in liquidity, as most funds are redirected back into the banking system, indicating a shift in the structure of bank deposits rather than a decrease in overall liquidity [5]

[ 业内认为，房地产市场至今已历经四年的下跌，从销售规模和价格来看，当前市场已开始探底，各地 正在多措并举，通过盘活存量、城市更新、建设"好房子"等方式来稳定市场信心和预期，激活市场需 求，在筑牢安全底线的同时，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 ] 作为关乎民生和经济发展的重要领域，房地产工作如何部署一直是地方两会的重要内容。随着各地两会 相继召开，2026年房地产领域的工作重点也逐渐明晰。 第一财经记者梳理各地政府工作报告发现，"着力稳定房地产市场""强化住房保障""好房子""加快构建 房地产发展新模式""大力推进城市更新"等提法高频出现，"稳市场、去库存、强保障、促更新"为主要 方向。在稳市场方面，河南、云南、江苏、山东、辽宁、吉林等地都提出，鼓励收购存量商品房用于保 障性住房等。 房地产行业专家对第一财经记者表示，地方两会中关于房地产市场的基调与"十五五"总体规划高度一 致，包括明确构建房地产新模式、风险防范，以及"好房子"建设等，同时各地又结合区域实际，提出差 异化的目标和举措，预计未来随着各项政策的落地见效，房地产市场有望筑底企稳，行业转型加速推 进。 稳市场成2026年首要工作 "各地在房地产和住房领域的 ...

2026.02. 10 本文字数：2760，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑娜 作为关乎民生和经济发展的重要领域，房地产工作如何部署一直是地方两会的重要内容。随着各地两 会相继召开，2026年房地产领域的工作重点也逐渐明晰。 第一财经记者梳理各地政府工作报告发现，"着力稳定房地产市场""强化住房保障""好房子""加快构 建房地产发展新模式""大力推进城市更新"等提法高频出现，"稳市场、去库存、强保障、促更新"为 主要方向。在稳市场方面，河南、云南、江苏、山东、辽宁、吉林等地都提出，鼓励收购存量商品房 用于保障性住房等。 房地产行业专家对第一财经记者表示，地方两会中关于房地产市场的基调与"十五五"总体规划高度 一致，包括明确构建房地产新模式、风险防范，以及"好房子"建设等，同时各地又结合区域实际， 提出差异化的目标和举措，预计未来随着各项政策的落地见效，房地产市场有望筑底企稳，行业转型 加速推进。 稳市场成2026年首要工作 "各地在房地产和住房领域的表述高度聚焦于稳市场、去库存、强保障、促更新四大方向。"广东省 城乡规划院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉表示，稳市场基本是各地2026年房地产工作的第 ...

作为关乎民生和经济发展的重要领域，房地产工作如何部署一直是地方两会的重要内容。随着各地两会 相继召开，2026年房地产领域的工作重点也逐渐明晰。 第一财经记者梳理各地政府工作报告发现，"着力稳定房地产市场"、"强化住房保障"、"好房子"、"加 快构建房地产发展新模式"、"大力推进城市更新"等提法高频出现，"稳市场、去库存、强保障、促更 新"为主要方向。在稳市场方面，河南、云南、江苏、山东、辽宁、吉林等地都提出，鼓励收购存量商 品房用于保障性住房等。 房地产行业专家对第一财经记者表示，地方两会中关于房地产市场的基调与"十五五"总体规划高度一 致，包括明确构建房地产新模式、风险防范，以及"好房子"建设等，同时各地又结合区域实际，提出差 异化的目标和举措，预计未来随着各项政策的落地见效，房地产市场有望筑底企稳，行业转型加速推 进。 在实现"住有所居"的同时，满足居民持续升级的住房需求也是保障民生的重要内容，"好房子"建设也成 为各地工作部署中的关键词。例如广东系统推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设，满足多样化住 房需求；吉林提出要打造20个以上"好房子"示范项目。 城市更新转向存量提质增效 稳市场成2026年首 ...