Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including financing difficulties and the need for debt restructuring among property companies, while the government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize the market [1][2][3]. Financing and Debt Restructuring - Financing difficulties remain prominent, with property companies' financing in the first half of 2025 reaching 184.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [7]. - The approval of "white list" loans for real estate has increased, with 6.7 trillion approved by May 2025, indicating some marginal improvement in financing support [3][5]. - The cost of offshore bond financing for property companies in the first half of 2025 was 8.60%, while domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71% [9][10]. - The total debt maturity for property companies in 2025 is projected to be 532.7 billion, with the third quarter being a peak repayment period [14]. Government Policies and Market Stabilization - The government is maintaining a loose monetary policy and has proposed a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion for local governments, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Urban renewal is a key focus for 2025, with significant progress in the renovation of old urban areas, with 5,679 projects initiated in the first four months [4][17]. - The government emphasizes the need for a new sustainable development model in the real estate sector, with urban renewal as a critical strategy [17]. Industry Outlook and Opportunities - The successful debt restructuring of companies like Xiexin and Jinke provides a model for other struggling firms, indicating a potential path for industry-wide risk mitigation [13][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal efforts are expected to create new opportunities for capable property companies, encouraging them to enhance housing quality and competitiveness [17].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen-based company Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A has successfully acquired land use rights in Guangming District for a total price of RMB 1.994 billion, indicating active participation in the local real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Details - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A, in collaboration with Qianhai Tianjian Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. and Jianchen Development Co., Ltd., won the bidding for a land parcel in Guangming District, Shenzhen, with a total area of 34,995.97 square meters and a building area of 108,487 square meters [1]. - The land is designated for residential use with a usage period of 70 years and a plot ratio of ≤3.1 [1]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - The shareholding distribution for the land acquisition is as follows: Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A holds 40%, Qianhai Tianjian 30%, and Jianchen Development 30% [2]. - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A is primarily controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shenzhen Municipal Government, which holds a direct stake of 21.93% [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A reported a revenue increase of 115.79% to RMB 6.065 billion, while the first quarter of 2025 saw a staggering 540.28% increase to RMB 1.618 billion [2]. - Despite the revenue growth, the company recorded losses of RMB 1.568 billion in 2024 and RMB 25.94 million in the first quarter of 2025 [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on innovation and reform, optimizing its investment layout in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and accelerating project turnover to ensure stable cash flow [3]. - Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A plans to explore new business areas, including urban village renovation, to promote sustainable and healthy development [3]. Group 5: Market Position - As of June 27, the stock price of Shen Zhen Zhen Ye A was reported at RMB 6.69 per share, with a total market capitalization of RMB 9.031 billion [4].

在受访专家看来，下半年政策将进一步发力稳市场、促转型，在以更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳的 同时，也将通过搭建基础性制度、统筹城市更新等工作，助推房地产行业提质向新。 政策助力市场回暖 上半年，房地产政策保持宽松基调，中央层面进一步优化统筹房地产政策，调整供给结构，提振住房消 费。 58安居客研究院院长张波在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："2025年上半年房地产调控政策围绕'止 跌回稳'展开，通过精准施策带动市场不断向稳。" 一方面，财政政策工具持续发挥作用。自然资源部、财政部3月份印发《关于做好运用地方政府专项债 券支持土地储备有关工作的通知》，支持运用专项债开展土地储备工作，调节市场存量土地规模，有效 推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 另一方面，金融政策加大支持力度。中国人民银行于5月份下调政策利率0.1个百分点、降低个人住房公 积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，住房按揭利率降至历史最低水平，助力住房消费需求充分释放。 地方层面，各地发力落实金融支持、城市更新、购房补助等各方面政策，并积极运用专项债收购存量闲 置土地及存量商品房。 据克而瑞研究中心统计，2025年上半年，地方层面出台362次稳市场政策，全国拟收储土 ...

2025 年 6 月 26 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、镍、锡、工业硅、碳酸锂、 焦煤期货将偏强震荡 原油、燃料油、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3944 和 3964 点，支撑位 3910 和 3890 点；IH2509 阻力位 2735 和 2750 点，支撑位 2719 和 2707 点；IC2509 阻力位 5838 和 5888 点，支撑位 5740 和 5690 点；IM2509 阻力位 62 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating [3] 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly, with downstream consumption gradually weakening. The supply growth is accelerating due to increased production by smelters and the release of new and restarted capacities. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. The domestic social inventory is stable, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - selling pressure is weakening with reduced positions. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,710 dollars/ton, up 29.5 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 264,399 lots, up 4,519 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,294 lots, up 3,065 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,473 tons, down 696 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory is 42,864 tons, down 2,602 tons; the LME inventory is 122,875 tons, down 575 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 17.39 dollars/ton, up 2.78 dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, an improvement of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an improvement of 10,400 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 58,400 tons, down 2,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.73%, up 12.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.69%, up 10.48 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.1%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.23%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and decisions should be based on actual data. The US economy outperforms others, so interest rates may be higher, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [3] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus on effective regulation is needed [3] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and build a new real - estate development model [3]

加快建设全国统一大市场 全国政协常委曹卫星（代表民盟中央） 面对国内外形势新变化，我国积极构建多元化市场，在深化与各方合作的同时，通过纵深推进全国统一 大市场建设，不断增强自身发展的韧性。如何发挥好经济体制改革的牵引作用，推动有效市场和有为政 府更好结合，强化竞争政策基础地位，建设高效规范、公平竞争、充分开放的全国统一大市场尤为关 键。为此，建议： 强化公平竞争审查刚性约束，打通制约经济循环堵点。着力纠治限制企业迁移、歧视性对待外地企业等 突出问题，全面清理资质认定等各种显性隐性进入壁垒，破除地方保护。增强制度衔接，将公平竞争审 查制度同约谈、行政垄断执法等结合起来，形成合力破除体制机制障碍。 加强竞争执法和合规引导，用好超大规模市场优势。一体推进法治监管、信用监管和智慧监管，增强监 管穿透力，通过有力监管破除统一市场建设的桎梏。加强对企业的竞争合规宣导和培训，鼓励企业通过 自主创新获取市场优势。 完善要素市场化体系建设，扩大统一大市场影响力。优化技术和数据要素市场配置机制，推动区域或行 业技术交易平台互联互通，健全数据资源产权、交易流通、跨境传输和安全等基础制度和标准规范。破 除各种政策壁垒，促进国内市场和 ...

在宏观经济的大棋局中，房地产市场始终占据着举足轻重的地位。近年来，随着国内外经济形势的风云变幻，我国房地产市场也经历着深刻的变革与调整。 从政策端的频繁发力，到市场供需结构的悄然转变，再到行业发展模式的积极探索，房地产市场的每一个动向都牵动着各方的神经。 尤其是2025年，房地产将处在一个非常关键的时期，对未来起到起承转合的作用。 自 2025 年以来，从4月的会再到6月13日的会，一系列关于房地产市场的重要决策部署不断出台，释放出强烈的政策信号。政策基调从过去的 "止跌回稳" 逐 步升级为 "持续巩固稳定态势"，这一转变意义深远。 在 "优存量" 方面，各地积极探索优化存量商品房收购政策。纷纷参与到存量商品房的收购行动中，将其转化为保障性住房、租赁住房等多种形式。在一些 城市，通过收购闲置的商业公寓并改造为租赁住房，既盘活了大量的闲置资产，又极大地增加了租赁住房的供给，有效缓解了租赁市场房源紧张的局面。这 一举措不仅消化了库存，完善了住房供应体系，还改善了房地产企业的现金流状况，助力企业轻装上阵应对市场调整。 在金融政策方面，对房地产企业合理融资需求的支持力度持续加大。银行等金融机构积极优化对房地产企业的信 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 新房成交面积同比下滑，多地放松政策持续出 台 增持（维持） 2025 年 06 月 23 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -3% 3% 9% 15% 21% 27% 33% 39% 45% 2024/6/24 2024/10/23 2025/2/21 2025/6/22 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《新房成交面积同比回落，更大力度 推动房地产市场止跌回稳》 2025-06-17 《新房二手房成交同环比回落，城市 更新政策持续释放动能》 2025-06-09 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 ◼ 上周（2025.6.16-2025.6.20）：上周房地产板块（中信）涨跌幅-1.9%,同期 沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为-0.5%、-1.1%，超额收益分别为 -1.5%、-0.9%。29 个中信行业板块中房地产位列第 17。 ◼ （1）新房市场：上周 36 城 ...

止跌回稳定调行业，静待投资端变化——地产行业 2025 年中期投资策略 20250622 摘要 央行维持 MLF 利率不变，释放流动性，或促使银行下调商业贷款利率。 金融监管总局强调对高品质住宅资金供给，加快出台与房地产发展新模 式相匹配的融资制度。 现房销售政策拉长开发周期至 2-3 年，增加市场不确定性。住建部强调 城市更新，财政部等加大资金支持，房地产市场将从无到有进化到从有 到优，以品质住宅为主导。 专项债落地速度未达预期，截至 2025 年 6 月，不同省市使用专项债收 购存量土地规模约 4,000 亿元，但实际完成交易额度仅 700 亿元，未来 政府或加强推进力度。 REITs 常态化发行提速，底层资产范围扩大，类型多样化。中证 REITs 指数今年以来涨幅达 9.07%，优于股债两市，波动性居股债之间，相对 可控。 推荐保障房类及消费类 REITs，二级市场表现稳定且分红稳定性较高。 今年一季度保障房类 REITs 营收同比增长 15%，可供分配资金同比增长 11%，韧性明显。 Q&A 当前市场关注的地产政策主要有四个方面。首先是央行的政策，包括降准和降 息，下调结构性货币政策工具利率以及公积金 ...

房地产 房地产 2025 年 06 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房杭州环比领涨，二手房价同比 降幅缩小—行业点评报告》-2025.6.16 《单月销售数据仍降，新房市场延续 弱复苏趋势 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.16 《新房二手房成交面积环比增长，广 州全面取消限购限售—行业周报》 -2025.6.15 新房二手房成交面积环比增长，西安公积金直付新房 首付款 ——行业周报 | qidong@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 核心观点：新房二手房成交面积环比增长，西安公积金直付新房首付款 本周我们跟踪的 68 城新房成交环比增长，同比下降， 20 城 ...