根据最新调查显示，多数关注日本央行政策的分析师预计，日本央行将在明年1月之前上调基准利率。 不过，与此前相比，下个月加息的预期比例有所下降，这可能与近期政治和经济环境不确定性增加有 关，从而延后了加息时点。 在下周五，日本央行行长主持的政策委员会会议上，市场普遍不预期会立即调整利率。然而，一项针对 50名经济学家的调查显示，有88%的受访者认为，日本央行将在明年1月底前将利率从0.5%上调。10月 仍然是最受关注的加息时点，但支持率已从上次调查的42%降至36%。 尽管市场预期美日利差缩小，但日元仍相对疲软。约四分之三的受访者将其归因于日本央行的谨慎态 度，13%认为原因另有他处，其余人表示难以判断。 分析人士将重点关注日本央行对风险状况以及实现稳健通胀目标的表述。央行将在9月19日公布政策决 定后举行新闻发布会。部分研究机构分析员指出："9月会议关键在于观察下一次加息信号出现的时机， 以及经济稳定性和成本推动型通胀压力的警觉程度。今年内加息的可能性约为60%。" 近期的不确定性因素促使一些金融机构将加息时间推迟至10月以后，理由是市场和经济环境的波动加 大。部分机构分析指出，日本央行可能会继续采取观望策略， ...

虽然在下周五日本央行行长植田和男领导的委员会做出政策决定时，没有人预测会有利率变动，但根据 一项调查，50 名接受调查的经济学家中有 88%认为，到 1 月底之前，日本央行将把利率从 0.5%上调。 10 月仍是最受青睐的加息时间选择，但该选项的支持率从上一次 7 月政策会议后的调查中所占的 42% 下降到了此次调查中的 36%。 智通财经APP获悉，据一项调查，大多数关注日本央行动向的人分析师预计，日本央行将在明年 1 月之 前上调基准利率;大部分人预计下月将加息，但比例较此前调查有所下降，因为首相石破茂辞职后，政 治不确定性加剧，这使得加息时间可能有所推迟。 展望未来，12 月期间有关加息的预期有所升温，目前有 22%的人预计会在当月实施加息，这一比例较 之前的 11%有所上升。约 30%的人预计加息将在 1 月进行，这一比例与上一次调查中的 33%基本相 同。 石破茂即将离职一事已促使下个月将展开一场自民党领导层的竞选活动，随后还将举行一次议会投票， 以选出下一任首相。 法国巴黎银行等机构已将加息时间推迟至 10 月以后，其理由是政治局势愈发不稳定，且美联储加大了 采取连续降息措施的可能性，以支撑美国经 ...

Group 1 - The market is facing increased instability as investors prepare for the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and speculate on his successor [1] - The Japanese yen has weakened, dropping 0.7% against the US dollar, making it one of the weakest G-10 currencies last week [1] - Concerns over government spending are leading to potential sell-offs in long-term Japanese government bonds, while US Treasury bonds have seen an increase [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates this year due to the current political situation, leading to increased volatility in the yen and higher trading risks for rate traders [2]

日本央行前首席经济学家关根敏隆认为，市场对日本央行10月可能加息的押注，低估了特朗普关税措施 带来的不确定性。 "特朗普政府采取的举措对抗性强且难以预测，几乎让我都不想看新闻了，"现任一桥大学经济学教授的 关根敏隆说。"市场可以犯错，这没关系；但货币政策不行。政策不能这么轻易改变。" 这位前央行官员提到本世纪头十年日本央行的历史：当时加息并退出宽松被广泛批评为过早。事后来 看，经济仍深陷通缩之中。 日本央行行长植田和男已承诺将密切关注美国关税的影响。市场普遍预计，央行在9月19日结束的政策 会议将把利率维持在0.5%。 责任编辑：栎树 "我想说的是，不确定性比市场参与者可能认为的更大，"关根敏隆称。"如果让我在10月份确定关税的 潜在影响，我会说'不'。" 随着日本经济韧性显现，部分经济学家将10月列为日本央行下一次加息的最可能时点。关根敏隆表示， 他并不完全排除加息的可能性，因为包括汇率在内的一系列因素都会影响决策。但要在那个时间点宣称 经济风险已充分消退，恐怕很难。 ...

Group 1 - Japan's nominal wages grew by 4.1% year-on-year in July, marking the fastest increase in seven months and surpassing economists' expectations of 3% [1] - Real cash income also saw its first year-on-year increase this year, rising by 0.5%, contrary to market expectations of a decline [1] - Basic wages increased by 2.5%, while a more stable indicator showed a 2.4% rise in formal employee wages [1] Group 2 - The data supports the notion that Japan's economy is on a positive trajectory, bolstering confidence in domestic demand despite potential external shocks [3] - Market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike have intensified, with economists predicting a possible increase of 25 basis points as early as October [3][4] - The anticipated rate hike could lead to significant selling pressure in the Japanese government bond market, potentially causing long-term bond yields to rise [3] Group 3 - The recent wage statistics were bolstered by strong summer bonuses, which increased by 7.9% compared to June [5] - However, the sustainability of these bonuses is uncertain, particularly for major automotive manufacturers facing tariff pressures [5] - Toyota has warned that tariffs could significantly impact its profits, raising concerns about future wage increases if profit margins remain under pressure [5] Group 4 - Private consumption in Japan has contributed positively to economic growth for five consecutive quarters [6] - The government's ability to implement stimulus measures is in question, especially with political pressures mounting on Prime Minister Kishida [6] - Japan's export data has been declining for three consecutive months, with July's drop being the largest in four years, indicating challenges for exporters [6]

日本央行10月加息的可能性正浮出水面，但最终的决定权似乎已不完全掌握在货币政策制定者手中，而 是与首相石破茂的政治命运紧密相连。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券分析师Tomoaki Shishido和Tomoya Narita在一份报告中指出，日本央行审 议委员Junko Nakagawa上周的讲话暗示，10月的货币政策会议将可能做出加息决定，这一表态被市场解 读为对先前鸽派预期的修正，显著提升了短期内政策收紧的概率。 然而，货币政策的窗口期正受到政治不确定性的严重挤压。野村认为，如果首相石破茂的政府能够维持 到10月，加息的可能性将更高。反之，若执政党自民党提前举行领导人选举并导致政府更迭，日本央行 将需要时间评估新内阁的政策意图，从而大概率推迟加息决策。 日央行鹰派信号重现 市场对10月加息的预期升温，直接源于日本央行官员近期措辞的微妙变化。审议委员Junko Nakagawa在 8月28日的讲话中表示，"若经济活动与物价前景得以实现，央行将'相应地'继续上调政策利率"。 政治变数成最大掣肘 尽管加息的经济条件和央行的鹰派倾向似乎正在铺垫，但政治因素构成了最大的不确定性。 报告直言，10月是否加息，日本的政治 ...

Group 1: Economic Developments - Brazilian President Lula plans to convene a special summit of BRICS leaders on September 8 to discuss U.S. trade policies [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the U.S. has remained unchanged, with consumer spending flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's Waller suggests that interest rate cuts should begin this month, with multiple reductions expected in the coming months depending on future economic data [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda stated that if economic growth and prices align with expectations, the central bank will consider raising interest rates [2] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari mentioned that there is room to lower short-term interest rates, although he did not specify when policy easing would occur [2] - The Federal Reserve's Bostic believes that a soft labor market warrants some policy easing, suggesting a rate cut in 2025 may be appropriate [1][2] Group 3: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05% to 45,271.23 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.51% to 6,448.26 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 1.02% to 21,497.73 points [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.77% to $3,619.70 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.52% to $41.81 per ounce [6] - U.S. crude oil futures dropped by 2.77% to $63.77 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 2.53% to $67.39 per barrel [6] Group 4: Global Economic Indicators - Japan's new fiscal year budget request reached a record 122.4 trillion yen, a 4.1% increase from the previous year, with debt financing needs at a historical high of 32.4 trillion yen [2] - The U.S. July job openings fell to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months, significantly below the expected 7.382 million [2] - Eurozone's August composite PMI slightly increased to 51, while the services PMI dropped to 50.5, indicating mixed economic signals [2]

Core Points - Suntory Holdings Group announced the resignation of its Chairman and CEO, Niinami Takeshi, due to his involvement in a police investigation related to suspected illegal substances [1][3] - The investigation centers around a supplement containing THC (tetrahydrocannabinol), which is illegal in Japan, and was reportedly gifted to Niinami by a friend from the U.S. [3][4] - Suntory stated that Niinami's actions indicated a lack of understanding regarding the legality of the supplement, leading to his inability to continue in a key representative role [3] Company Overview - Suntory Holdings was established in 1899 in Osaka, Japan, and has grown into a global food and beverage conglomerate with over 270 subsidiaries and more than 40,000 employees worldwide [4] - The company offers a diverse range of products, including alcoholic beverages, non-alcoholic drinks, health foods, and operates in various sectors such as dining and floral businesses [4] - Niinami Takeshi had a significant background in corporate leadership, previously serving as Chairman of Lawson and holding positions at Mitsubishi Corporation before joining Suntory in 2014 [6] Legal Context - Japan's laws regarding cannabis and its psychoactive components, including THC, are strict, with severe penalties for possession, sale, or importation [4] - The revised Cannabis Control Law and Narcotics Control Law, effective December 2024, explicitly classify THC as a narcotic, highlighting the legal risks associated with such substances in Japan [4] Industry Impact - Niinami's resignation may have implications for Suntory's corporate governance and public perception, given his influential role in Japan's economic circles, including as the head of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives [6] - The incident raises concerns about compliance and risk management within the company, particularly in relation to product sourcing and employee conduct [3][4]

2025.09. 02 资料图：日本三得利控股社长兼首席执行官（CEO）新浪刚史。 新浪刚史有丰富的企业高管经验。在2014年7月进入三得利之前，曾担任罗森董事长。三得利控股彼 时希望利用新浪刚史丰富的经验加速公司的发展。此前，他还曾任职三菱商事。 此外，新浪刚史还在日本经济界"分量颇重"。他是日本最大的商业游说团体之一的日本经济同友会会 长。同时，还是日本首相办公室高级经济顾问。他经常对日本政经大事发表评论。 日本经济同友会成立于1946年，是由企业家以个人名义参与的经营者团体，与经团联、日本商工会 议所并称日本三大经济团体。作为"日本财界智囊"，日本经济同友会会员覆盖日本商界领袖。该团体 以超越行业利益的宏观视角研究经济社会问题，通过政策建议和国际交流推动日本与世界经济协调发 展。 对于当前备受关注的日本央行加息问题，7月29日，新浪刚史在新闻发布会上代表颇具影响力的日本 经济同友会表示，如果日本央行在应对经济形势变化方面落后，"那将是行长的责任"。此前，他呼吁 政策制定者上调基准利率。日本企业高管直接呼吁央行行长植田和男采取行动属罕见。 本文字数：1625，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 ...

Core Viewpoint - Suntory Holdings Group's CEO and Chairman, Niinami Takeshi, resigned amid a police investigation related to suspected illegal substances, specifically a supplement containing THC, which is illegal in Japan [1][2]. Company Overview - Suntory Holdings was established in 1899 in Osaka, Japan, and has grown into a global food and beverage conglomerate with over 270 subsidiaries and more than 40,000 employees worldwide [2]. - The company offers a diverse range of products, including alcoholic beverages, non-alcoholic drinks, health foods, and operates in various sectors such as dining and floral businesses [2]. Leadership Changes - Niinami Takeshi had been in his role since 2014, previously serving as Chairman of Lawson and held positions at Mitsubishi Corporation [2]. - Following Niinami's resignation, the company announced that Nobuhiro Torii, a member of the founding family, will assume the presidency in March 2025, marking a return of the founding family to leadership after nearly a decade [2]. Economic Influence - Niinami was a prominent figure in Japan's economic landscape, serving as the chairman of the Japan Association of Corporate Executives and as a senior economic advisor to the Prime Minister's office [2][3]. - He publicly addressed significant economic issues, including advocating for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan to combat yen depreciation and rising import prices [3][4]. Market Trends - Niinami noted a decline in consumer confidence, leading to a shift towards budget products over premium items, which could prompt companies to focus on markets in India and Indonesia [4]. - He warned that U.S. tariff measures could negatively impact Japan's GDP by 1% to 1.2% [4].