Group 1: UK Economic Outlook - The UK economy shows slight improvement with a Q3 GDP growth of 0.1%, and corporate investment data revised from a decline of 0.3% to an increase of 1.5% [1] - Despite a decline in real household income, consumer spending willingness has strengthened, with household savings rate dropping from 10.2% in Q2 to 9.5% in Q3, the lowest in over a year [1] - Overall, the data remains lagging and does not alter the forecast of a slowdown in GDP growth in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: US CPI and Commodity Prices - The US November CPI fell more than expected, leading to revised market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, boosting prices of precious metals like gold and silver [2] - Gold prices have surged above $4,400 per ounce, with potential for further increases if it stabilizes above this level, although challenges may arise from central banks shifting from rate cuts to hikes [2] - Seasonal liquidity during the Christmas holiday may amplify current price increases, with December and January historically being strong months for gold [2] Group 3: German Automotive Exports - German automotive exports to the US fell nearly 14% in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly impacted by Trump's trade policies [3] - The engineering sector also faced challenges, with exports to the US down 9.5%, and the chemical industry experiencing a similar decline [3] - Overall, German exports to the US decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, contrasting with an average growth of about 5% from 2016 to 2024 [3] Group 4: Japanese Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates to address concerns over the weak yen, with predictions of two rate hikes in 2026 [3] - The potential for foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities is being closely monitored, although specific intervention levels remain uncertain [4] Group 5: Argentine Foreign Direct Investment - Argentina's foreign direct investment has seen a negative growth for the first time in 22 years, with a reported outflow of $1.52 billion from January to November 2025 [5] - The decline is attributed to multinational companies exiting the Argentine market or selling their local operations, driven by high inflation and currency volatility [5] - The exit of numerous multinational firms since December 2023 reflects a lack of confidence in Argentina's macroeconomic stability [5]

锌周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2025 年 12 月 22 日 海外加速交仓 锌价承压震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价承压回落。宏观面，美国 11 月非农数据 喜忧参半，通胀数据低于预期，且美联储官员释放鸽派信号， 降息预期略有提升。国内 11 月经济数据延续偏弱，市场期 待政策加码助力 26 年经济实现开门红。 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 风险因素：宏观风险扰动，炼厂减产低于预期 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，LME 将从 26 年 7 月实施持仓限额，LME 加速交仓， 库存回升至近 10 万吨，且 LME0-3 现货由前期高升水转为小 贴水，挤仓担忧快速降温，内外锌价均有回落。不过沪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of precious metals, including price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, and spreads. It also covers macro - and industry - related news [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products showed different trends. For example, Comex gold 2602 had a 0.11% increase, while Shanghai gold 2602 had a - 0.06% decrease. Comex silver 2602 rose by 2.97%, and Shanghai silver 2602 fell by 0.93% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of different gold and silver contracts also changed compared to the previous day. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 87,762, and its position decreased by 7,090 [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,052.54, and the SLV silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 48 to 16,066.24 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of gold and silver in different markets also had changes. For example, the inventory of Comex gold (in troy ounces, the day before yesterday) increased by 78,815 to 36,070,160, and the inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 12,528 to 899,636 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and products also changed. For example, the spread between gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged at - 4.08, and the spread between silver T + D and AG2602 increased by 1 to 58 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The competition for the Fed Chairmanship is intensifying. Waller is reported to have performed "excellently" in the interview and has the support of corporate executives, while Wall Street is lobbying for Warsh, and Trump may shift his focus to the job market [1][4]. - Fed's "third - in - command" Williams said there is no urgent need for further interest - rate cuts, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted [4]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and said it would continue to raise rates if the economic and price outlook is achieved. The yen fell more than 1% during trading, and traders bet that the next rate hike may be in September next year [4]. - The Ukrainian delegation held a series of meetings with the US and Europe from Friday to Sunday, and the US envoy said the meetings were "productive." Zelensky said the US proposed a tri - party meeting between Ukraine, Russia, and the US [4]. - The US intercepted a third oil tanker near Venezuelan waters [4]. - The State Council executive meeting emphasized taking proactive measures to ensure a good start for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [4]. - The Cyberspace Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly took action to deal with accounts spreading rumors and providing illegal stock - recommendation services [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

智通财经APP获悉，东方财富陈果团队发布研究报告称，此前提示美债利率呈现上升迹象，日本央行加 息在即，需留意外部扰动，从上周市场表现来看，A股有扰动，但增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿也较强 烈，结构上内需板块尤其是非耐用品消费明显占优。春季行情经历长时间高胜率演绎，已经从日历效应 迈过抢跑博弈，进入反身性阶段，后续除可能的1月业绩预告扰动外，利空因素能见度不高，可顺应抢 跑，逢低布局。结构上具备足够赔率吸引力且胜率在上升的内需板块重视程度上移，重点关注：保险、 券商、有色、AI算力/半导体、零售/美护/社服/乳品、航空、新能源、创新药等。 春季行情演化论 随着市场参与者结构变化、信息传播速度加快、投资者学习效应增强、经济新旧动能转换，春季行情经 历了深刻的演化，可以划分为三个阶段：第一阶段，2017年及以前，日历效应阶段。行情发酵于春节 后，依赖政策驱动和流动性回流；第二阶段，2018-2023年，抢跑博弈阶段。行情启动时点明显前移至 12月，源于学习效应与市场参与结构变化；第三阶段，2024-2025年，反身性阶段。"抢跑"消耗增量资 金，遇利空易致"深坑式调整"，后续依赖产业趋势+流动性驱动。 最新的美国CPI ...

12 月 23 日 12 月 24 日日本央行公布 10 月货币政策会议纪要（07:50）美国至 12 月 20 日当周初请失业金人数(万 人)（21:30）加拿大央行公布货币政策会议纪要（02:30） （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国 11 月 失业率 4.6% 超预期，未季调核心 CPI 2.6% 低于预期，日本 央行加息 25 bps；本周全球市场进入圣诞模式，可重点关注美国第三季度实际 GDP 以及核心 PCE 等。 上周回顾美国 11 月失业率 4.6%，为 2021 年 9 月以来新高，预期 4.4%。美国 11 月季调后非农就业人 口 6.4 万人，预期 5 万人。美国至 12 月 13 日当周初请失业金人数 22.4 万人，预期 22.5 万人，前值由 23.6 万人修正为 23.7 万人。美国 11 月未季调核心 CPI 年率 2.6%，预期 3%。美国 11 月未季调 CPI 年 率 2.7%，预期 3.1%。日本央行将基准利率上调至 30 年来的最高水平。日本央行行长植田和男称，该 行政策委员会一致决定将利率上调 0.25 个百分点至 ...

格隆汇12月19日｜凯投宏观在一份报告中表示，日本央行加息的决定并不令人意外，尽管其强硬的信息 表明，未来还会进一步收紧政策。日本央行表示，对日本经济抵御关税不确定性的能力有了更大的信 心，对企业利润预计将保持在高位有了更大的信心。预计，与日本央行的预测相比，即将公布的经济活 动和通胀数据更有可能超出预期。凯投宏观表示，其信心正在增强，预计2027年的最终利率将达到 1.75%，高于市场普遍预期。 ...

消息面上，日本央行加息"靴子"落地。12月19日，日本央行9:0一致投票通过政策决议，宣布加息25个 基点至0.75%，利率水平创30年来新高，符合市场预期。这是日本央行2024年3月货币政策正常化以来 的第四次加息，而上次加息还要追溯到今年1月。 此次加息已被投资者提前充分定价，同时也反映出日本央行当前的举措尚未改变整体宽松的货币基调， 更多被视为"渐进式正常化"进程中的一环。· 有券商机构认为，日本良性通胀循环已较稳固，日本央行即将再次加息。去年夏季日本加息后的全球市 场动荡主要是由衰退预期升温和AI叙事动摇等美国因素造成，套息交易逆转只是加剧彼时避险情绪的 次要因素，去年的"黑色星期一"不太可能在今年重演。在美日央行政策分歧的背景下，美国因素才是当 前全球流动性与美元资产定价的核心主线。目前市场对AI叙事的质疑集中体现于业务模式较激进的少 数企业，而多数财务状况较稳健的AI龙头仍能维持市场信任，产业智能化热潮应能在中短期继续支持 美股龙头的业绩表现。长端美债在本轮风险管理式降息周期内的配置性价比不高，短端美债则可能受益 于准备金管理购买操作对流动性的技术性改善，后者较前者更好。 日经225指数今日收涨1 ...

新华财经北京12月19日电澳新银行集团（ANZ）策略师菲利克斯·瑞安（Felix Ryan）表示，尽管日本央 行已启动加息，但美元兑日元汇率反而走高，反映出市场尚未获得关于其未来加息步伐与幅度的明确指 引。 这一预期意味着，即便日本货币政策逐步正常化，其相对于美国等主要经济体的利率优势仍显不足，难 以支撑日元显著升值。在全球主要央行货币政策分化持续的背景下，日元作为传统融资货币的地位短期 内或难有根本性改变。 （文章来源：新华财经） 瑞安指出："日本央行加息后，美元兑日元走高，这可能表明市场尚未看到日本央行加息步伐或幅度的 明确迹象。这一问题可能会在今天晚些时候行长植田和男的新闻发布会上得到进一步明确。" 他强调，虽然澳新银行确实预计日本央行将在2026年继续推进加息，但"日元在未来一年仍将落后于十 国集团（G10）交叉盘"，主要原因是当前利差格局对日元依然不利。基于此判断，该行维持对2026年 底美元兑日元汇率为153的预测。 ...

Investinglive分析师Eamonn Sheridan表示，人们普遍预计日本央行12月将加息25个基点，目前市场几乎 已经完全消化了这一预期。尽管加息几乎是板上钉钉的事，外界对植田和男将采取强硬态度的预期并不 高。政策制定者仍敏锐地留意着日本政府债券收益率的大幅上升，以及国内金融状况对利率上升的敏感 性。即使在符合预期的加息之后，日本央行仍将实际利率评估为负值，这强化了这样一种观点，即实际 政策将保持宽松，紧缩将谨慎进行。目前市场定价显示，日本央行最早将在明年6月或7月再次加息。然 而，一些分析人士认为，这一时间表过于激进。越来越多的观点认为，2026年10月是一个更现实的窗 口，让日本央行有时间评估借贷成本上升对企业融资、 银行贷款、家庭消费和资本支出的影响。春季 工资谈判和日元汇率将是这一评估的特别重要因素。 ...

中信证券研报认为，日本良性通胀循环已较稳固，日本央行即将再次加息。去年夏季日本加息后的全球 市场动荡主要是由衰退预期升温和AI叙事动摇等美国因素造成，套息交易逆转只是加剧彼时避险情绪 的次要因素，去年的"黑色星期一"不太可能在今年重演。在美日央行政策分歧的背景下，美国因素才是 当前全球流动性与美元资产定价的核心主线。目前市场对AI叙事的质疑集中体现于业务模式较激进的 少数企业，而多数财务状况较稳健的AI龙头仍能维持市场信任，产业智能化热潮应能在中短期继续支 持美股龙头的业绩表现。长端美债在本轮风险管理式降息周期内的配置性价比不高，短端美债则可能受 益于准备金管理购买操作对流动性的技术性改善，后者较前者更好 ...