Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 28, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 79400, LME spot price is 9786, spot price ratio is 8.17, and spot import profit is - 722.84 [1] - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22750, LME spot price is 2838, spot price ratio is 8.02, and spot import profit is - 1763.87 [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20780, LME spot price is 2649, spot price ratio is 7.84, and spot import profit is - 1734.41 [1] - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 122700, LME spot price is 15340, spot price ratio is 8.00, and spot import profit is - 1990.99 [1] - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16725, LME spot price is 2007, spot price ratio is 8.35, and spot import profit is - 974.42 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are - 580, - 540, - 590, and - 660 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1308, and 1717 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are - 80, - 90, - 130, and - 170 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 342, 465, and 589 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are - 25, - 60, - 125, and - 180 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 70, 110, 100, and 170 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of the second - month, third - month, fourth - month, and fifth - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 200, 330, 500, and 750 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract is - 350, and the theoretical spread is 5622 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for the Shanghai (three - continuous) contracts are 3.47, 3.83, 4.67, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; for the London (three - continuous) contracts, they are 3.46, 3.71, 4.85, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 respectively [5]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly Report" and is from the Black Metal Research Center of Guomao Futures, dated July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The market sentiment has cooled down, and short - term volatility has increased. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the far - month coking coal contracts hit the daily limit after consecutive limit - up boards. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. Different sub - sectors in the black metal industry have different supply - demand situations and investment outlooks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Steel - **Supply**: Neutral. Pig iron production decreased slightly within market expectations. Near September, production restrictions may occur due to important events. Short - process production may fluctuate in some areas during the peak power season, but it won't significantly impact the total output. Recently, the price of scrap steel has lagged behind, and some electric furnaces may increase their operating rates [6] - **Demand**: Neutral. After the price rebound, the trading volume improved, and the "buy on rising" mentality supported the demand. The spot market's liquidity is still locked. The large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the trading in the black metal sector [6] - **Inventory**: Bullish. The total inventory level is low, and the inventory accumulation during the off - season is not significant, which may trigger unexpected restocking [6] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis decreased slightly this week. The rb2510 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 44 on Friday, down 20 from the previous week [6] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process steel mills still have profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, and the reduction in production has increased slightly [6] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The production links in the industry chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuation and moderately high absolute valuation [6] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The market is waiting for the Politburo meeting in July to set the direction. The "anti - involution" in the industry has digested some optimistic expectations [6] - **Investment View**: Hold. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's guidance on policies in the second half of the year. The data shows the resilience of steel products, but the large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the black metal sector. Consider taking profit on positive cash - and - carry positions [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold; Arbitrage: None; Cash - and - carry: Take profit on rolling positions [6] 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Bullish. The five major steel products have not shown obvious inventory accumulation during the off - season. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills remained at a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate increased, indicating high demand for furnace materials [48] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bullish. Domestic over - production inspections have lowered the supply expectation. The port clearance has reached a high level, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has rebounded from a low level, but the coking profit has decreased, and the cost of raw coal has increased, leading to faster price increases [48] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Downstream replenishment demand has been released, and the overall inventory of coking coal and coke has shifted downstream. The total inventory has continued to decline significantly [48] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis cost of coke and coking coal has increased, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have a high profitability rate, while coking profits are negative and the cost of raw coal has risen rapidly [48] - **Summary**: Neutral. The off - season data of the black metal industry is still good, but the previous rapid rise in futures prices may have over - anticipated the market. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions; Arbitrage: Hold [48] 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bullish. The shipping volume will seasonally increase in the following weeks, but the typhoon weather has affected the arrival and unloading rhythm. The arrival volume will decline later, and the supply pressure is not significant based on the current pig iron demand [94] - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly this week due to a temporary blast furnace maintenance. The steel mill profitability rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased slightly [94] - **Inventory**: Neutral. Although the arrival volume usually increases in July and August, it is difficult to enter a large - scale inventory accumulation stage in the short term with high pig iron production [94] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still high, so pig iron production can remain at a high level in the short term [94] - **Valuation**: Neutral. With high pig iron production, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [94] - **Summary**: Neutral. Pig iron production remained at a high level with small fluctuations. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. The port inventory accumulation is small, and there is still room for the port inventory to decline in the short term. It is not recommended to short the black metal market in the short term [94] - **Investment View**: Consolidation - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Hold [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea spot prices are weakly operating. In the futures market, last week, urea futures showed an N - shaped trend. Looking ahead to next week, in an environment where commodity futures decline significantly, urea futures are expected to open and move lower. There is a possibility of a large outflow of cash - and - carry arbitrage goods, leading to a negative feedback loop, and the weak situation is expected to be maintained in the short term. However, domestic urea production has decreased month - on - month, external demand has increased month - on - month, and domestic demand has strengthened month - on - month. It is recommended to actively close short positions after a significant decline in futures and wait for opportunities to enter long positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: From July 17 - 24, 2025, the weekly average daily output was 19.35 million tons. It is expected to be 19.00 million tons from July 25 - 31, 19.00 million tons from August 1 - 7, and 19.43 million tons from August 8 - 14. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production and 4 resumed, and this week, 2 enterprises are expected to conduct maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5]. - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is gradually ending and will basically disappear later [5]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 32.55% from July 17 - 24, 2025, and is expected to increase slowly. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.58%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 percentage points. From January to June, the cumulative domestic thermal power generation was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, as the temperature rises, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this cycle, but the decline narrowed [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 1300 yuan, and the anthracite price fluctuated [5]. - **Profit**: The production profit of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 390 yuan and is expected to increase. The current profit is at a reasonable level, and with potential exports, the profit is expected to strengthen [5]. - **Strategy**: After a significant decline, maintain a long - position thinking for UR2509 and UR2509 - UR2601. For options, use a cumulative purchase option for UR2509 [5]. 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Data on domestic urea spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and different particle sizes in Shanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7][8]. - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Data on international urea prices, spreads such as small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), and FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Data on the prices of phosphate and potassium fertilizers such as Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong potassium chloride from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12]. - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: Data on urea futures prices, basis, and inter - month spreads from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15]. 3.3 Supply - **Urea Production**: Data on the weekly average daily production of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 - 2025 are presented [17][18]. - **Urea Cost and Profit**: Data on the cost of anthracite and bituminous coal, and the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi and the new process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 are presented [20][21]. - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 are presented [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: Data on the start - up rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][28]. - **Melamine Industry**: Data on the weekly output, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2021 - 2025 are presented [29][30]. - **Export**: Data on China's monthly and cumulative monthly urea export volume and year - on - year changes from 2021 - 2025 are presented [31][32]

如何看浮法玻璃反内卷前景？20250723 摘要 反内卷共识增强背景下，浮法玻璃基本面触底，或迎来反弹机会。当前 亏损幅度若超 10%-20%难以长期维持，成本支撑依然存在，燃料和纯 碱价格是关键因素。 市场情绪受政策影响，悲观预期有所缓解，但具体政策落地效果仍待观 察。期货价格上涨带动套保增加，期现商通过套保将货物存放在市场中， 从而带动现货价格上涨，并提供套保机会。 沙河小板与大板价差几乎为零，表明家装需求尚存，工程需求未恢复。 湖北地区大板套保空间充足，但期货涨势过快导致套保热情下降，需等 待供需改善和政策传导。 当前挑战包括供需关系未根本改变，下游情绪未显著提升，政策效果待 观察，库存下降幅度有限。未来发展取决于政策、房地产复苏和全球经 济，有效政策传导有望改善前景。 期货市场给出较高价格，企业套保意愿平稳，观望情绪浓厚。部分厂家 已实现盈利，套保积极性下降，湖北地区仍有套保需求，若价差持续存 在，或增加套保需求。 Q&A 如何看待浮法玻璃行业近期的市场表现及其反内卷前景？ 近期浮法玻璃市场表现出一些积极迹象，尤其是在期货市场上出现了显著的波 动。尽管目前是传统淡季，但现货价格也有所上涨，生产企业库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 25, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,790, the LME price was 9,897, and the ratio was 8.05; the domestic March price was 79,920, the LME price was 9,947, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.14, with a profit of - 630.69, and the profit for spot export was 402.52 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,870, the LME price was 2,875, and the ratio was 7.95; the domestic March price was 23,015, the LME price was 2,876, and the ratio was 5.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.62, with a profit of - 1,901.83 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot and March prices were both 20,730, the LME spot price was 2,648, the March price was 2,646, and the ratio was 7.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, with a profit of - 1,741.60 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,850, the LME price was 15,403, and the ratio was 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.22, with a profit of - 2,151.35 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME price was 2,011, and the ratio was 8.30; the domestic March price was 16,935, the LME price was 2,036, and the ratio was 11.26. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.81, with a profit of - 1,022.60 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 370, 400, 360, and 270 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 897, 1304, and 1710 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 95, 95, 45, and 0 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 341, 465, and 588 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 85, - 155, and - 210 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 125, 145, and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1140, 1300, 1490, and 1720 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 240, and the theoretical spread was 5663 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 240 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 337 and 832 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50 and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 180 and 313 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 285 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 25, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.47, 3.86, 4.72, 0.90, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; in London (triple - continuous), they were 3.47, 3.73, 4.88, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 respectively [5]

7月24日，焦煤期货主力合约再度涨停，报收1198元/吨，从而刷新近5个月高点。目前，焦煤期货已连 续6个交易日上涨，累计涨幅32.5%。焦炭期货也出现跟涨，24日收报1735元/吨。 一德期货分析，当前焦煤及焦炭供应格局仍显紧平衡，前期山西等地的环保、安监等因素导致的减产尚 未完全恢复；同时本轮盘面上涨显著带动了现货补库、期现套利（正套）入场以及贸易商囤货行为，这 些操作共同加速了现货去库节奏，共同推动价格上涨。 行业人士对第一财经称，当前资金扰动明显，部分品种如多晶硅、碳酸锂的基本面仍处于"强预期、弱 现实"局面，不过煤炭供应格局偏紧，随着前期两轮现货提涨落地，或继续带动这轮行情火热。 沉寂数月的焦煤期货迎来"六连涨"行情 沉寂数月的焦煤期货迎来"六连涨"行情。 资金涌入，煤炭期现货携手上涨 反内卷政策催化下，煤炭期货从6月初的709元/吨低位反弹， 如今冲上1198元/吨，两个月累计涨幅超 53%。 拉长周期看，国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，截至2025年7月中旬，焦煤(主焦煤)流通领域价格环比 上涨6.98%，报1150元/吨。 "由于钢厂的高利润，焦煤焦炭需求尚可，短期对煤焦价格有一定支撑。"魏亚如 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 23, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79760 (domestic) and 9794 (LME) with a ratio of 8.16; March price is 79770 (domestic) and 9863 (LME) with a ratio of 8.07. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of 76.62, and spot export profit is - 67.76 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22800 (domestic) and 2841 (LME) with a ratio of 8.02; March price is 22940 (domestic) and 2846 (LME) with a ratio of 5.92. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.64 with a profit of - 1742.69 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20950 (domestic) and 2647 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20835 (domestic) and 2645 (LME) with a ratio of 7.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.50 with a profit of - 1559.16 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 121600 (domestic) and 15283 (LME) with a ratio of 7.96. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.24 with a profit of - 2250.36 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 16675 (domestic) and 1976 (LME) with a ratio of 8.46; March price is 16965 (domestic) and 2002 (LME) with a ratio of 11.40. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 739.70 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 70, 30, - 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 501, 899, 1307, 1714 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 60, 55, 35, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 217, 341, 464, 588 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 30, - 35, - 100, - 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 564 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 30, 5, 5, 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 421, 527 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 1170, 1260, 1500, 1710 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 370 with a theoretical spread of 5556 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.48, 3.83, 4.70, 0.91, 1.23, 0.74 (Shanghai continuous three - month), and 3.47, 3.73, 4.93, 0.93, 1.32, 0.70 (LME continuous three - month) [8] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 5 and 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 397 and 844 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 85 and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 155 and 285 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 285 and 255 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 199 and 311 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 22, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 79600, LME price is 9790, and the ratio is 8.03; for three - month contracts, China price is 79770, LME price is 9857, and the ratio is 8.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.16 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22820, LME price is 2848, and the ratio is 8.01; for three - month contracts, China price is 22915, LME price is 2850, and the ratio is 5.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.64, with a profit of - 1778.34 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20890, LME price is 2640, and the ratio is 7.91; for three - month contracts, China price is 20785, LME price is 2638, and the ratio is 7.87. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.50, with a profit of - 1547.06 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 121350, LME price is 15134, and the ratio is 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.24, with a profit of - 1872.54 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16725, LME price is 1985, and the ratio is 8.47; for three - month contracts, China price is 17015, LME price is 2011, and the ratio is 11.38. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.84, with a profit of - 736.74 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 1360, 1360, 1340, and 1290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 494, 886, 1287, and 1688 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are 625, 615, 570, and 530, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 335, 456, and 576 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 275, 220, 140, and 85, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 443, and 558 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 175, 195, 225, and 200, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads are 2200, 2310, 2500, and 2720 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 3300, and the theoretical spread is 5533 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1100 and 260 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 246 and 885 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are - 520 and 105, and the theoretical spreads are 187 and 320 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 95 and 270, and the theoretical spreads are 176 and 288 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.48, 3.84, 4.69, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts), they are 3.47, 3.73, 4.89, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 18, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,010, the LME price was 9,538, and the ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 219.86. The domestic three - month price was 77,830, the LME price was 9,597, and the ratio was 8.12 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,120, the LME price was 2,693, and the ratio was 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,248.97. The domestic three - month price was 22,085, the LME price was 2,696, and the ratio was 6.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,570, the LME price was 2,564, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53, with a profit of - 1,293.96. The domestic three - month price was 20,355, the LME price was 2,567, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,550, the LME price was 14,787, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,413.78 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,625, the LME price was 1,946, and the ratio was 8.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 540.93. The domestic three - month price was 16,905, the LME price was 1,974, and the ratio was 11.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 130, - 150, - 190, and - 290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 492, 882, 1281, and 1680 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75, 40, 10, and - 35, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 120, - 185, and - 240, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 10, 30, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 580, - 460, - 220, and - 70 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 450, and the theoretical spread was 5437 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 20 and - 150, and the theoretical spreads were 465 and 878 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 315 (also 172 and 286 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 270 and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216 and 327 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.53, 3.75, 4.90, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/17 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78060 9576 8.15 三月 77940 9641 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -149.02 现货出口 -105.62 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22060 2686 8.21 三月 21995 2695 6.27 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 -1243.32 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20520 2579 7.96 三月 20360 2581 7.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -1436.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14947 8.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2104.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...