跨品种套利跟踪 2025/12/09 | 铜/锌 | 铜/铝 | 铜/铅 | 铝/锌 | 铝/铅 | 铅/锌 | 3.99 | 4.16 | 5.37 | 0.96 | 1.29 | 0.74 | 沪（三连） | 3.73 | 4.03 | 5.82 | 0.93 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 伦（三连） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 免责声明: | 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 | 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 | 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 | 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 1820 1860 1840 1760 理论价差 557 1012 1475 1939 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 485 495 515 505 理论价差 217 340 463 586 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 290 345 360 375 理论价差 221 344 466 588 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 70 85 110 120 理论价差 211 318 425 532 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 450 610 860 1100 锡 5-1 价差 530 理论价差 6540 期现套利跟踪 2025/12/08 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -565 1255 理论价差 138 909 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -300 185 理论价差 137 272 免责声明: 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -30 ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：上行动力不足，价格高位震荡 强弱分析：中性 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A00价差短期走弱 -2000 - ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/05 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 91250 11526 7.75 三月 91020 11476 7.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -1611.35 现货出口 - 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22980 3302 6.96 三月 22905 3060 5.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.43 -4870.73 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22010 2868 7.68 三月 22115 2899 7.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.32 -1844.30 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120300 14694 8.19 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1266.98 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/05 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17150 1966 8.70 三月 17235 2005 11.43 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 39.38 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged, reaching a historical high of over $57 per ounce, coinciding with a significant trading disruption at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) due to a cooling system failure at a data center, leading to speculation about market manipulation to protect market makers from potential losses [6][25][33] Group 1: CME Incident - On November 28, CME announced a trading halt due to a cooling issue at the CyrusOne data center, which lasted for 9 hours and affected various markets including gold, silver, and U.S. Treasury futures, with nominal contract values reaching several hundred million dollars [7][25][29] - The incident disrupted the price discovery process in global derivatives markets, causing significant volatility and widening spreads in gold and silver [7][26] - Analysts noted that the timing of the CME outage, coinciding with a spike in silver prices, led to discussions about potential market manipulation to protect exposed market makers [8][26] Group 2: Market Maker Risks - Market makers, who provide liquidity, faced extreme risks during the silver price surge due to their reliance on real-time hedging, which became ineffective in a rapidly moving market [9][27] - The concentration of short positions among market makers during a one-sided market led to significant losses as they accumulated large amounts of losing positions [10][28] - The volatility index for silver options surged by 12.74% on November 28, indicating heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for hedging [10][29] Group 3: Historical Context - The speculation surrounding CME's actions is reminiscent of past incidents where exchanges intervened during extreme market conditions, such as the nickel trading halt by the London Metal Exchange (LME) in March 2022 [12][31] - Historical events involving silver, such as the Hunt brothers' market manipulation in the 1970s, highlight the potential for liquidity crises in commodity markets [12][32] Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent surge in silver prices, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, raises questions about whether this trend will continue or if it marks a turning point [15][33] - Analysts suggest that the tightness in silver supply and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties may support prices, but caution against potential volatility due to speculative profit-taking [16][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 2, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the domestic spot price was 89280, the LME spot price was 11311, and the spot ratio was 7.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a profit of - 1332.99. The domestic March price was 89320, the LME March price was 11242, and the ratio was 7.93 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22550, the LME spot price was 3334, and the spot ratio was 6.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.43, with a profit of - 5558.00. The domestic March price was 22620, the LME March price was 3066, and the ratio was 5.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21730, the LME spot price was 2852, and the spot ratio was 7.61. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.30, with a profit of - 1955.44. The domestic March price was 21900, the LME March price was 2880, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119850, the LME spot price was 14698, and the spot ratio was 8.15. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a profit of - 1597.05 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16975, the LME spot price was 1941, and the spot ratio was 8.75. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.69, with a profit of 117.55. The domestic March price was 17055, the LME March price was 1983, and the ratio was 11.37 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 1810, 1850, 1820, and 1710 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 539, 977, 1423, and 1869 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 205, 235, 250, and 270 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, and 578 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 265, 300, 310, and 320 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, and 579 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 20, 0, 25, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1120, 1330, 1510, and 1800 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 330, and the theoretical spread was 6322 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 1725 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 36 and 792 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 165 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 132 and 264 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80 and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 137 and 250 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 2, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.95, 4.08, 5.24, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.75 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.63, 3.89, 5.62, 0.93, 1.45, and 0.65 respectively [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/01 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 87440 11040 7.88 三月 87400 10995 7.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -1071.50 现货出口 869.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22370 3261 6.86 三月 22450 3037 5.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.44 -5161.67 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21450 2819 7.61 三月 21650 2845 7.56 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.31 -1969.45 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119500 14663 8.15 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1633.66 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 28, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 87060, LME price is 10952, and the ratio is 7.95; for three - month, the price in China is 87030, LME price is 10936, and the ratio is 7.96. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.04 with a profit of - 1077.91, and spot export profit is 539.42 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22450, LME price is 3214, and the ratio is 6.99; for three - month, the price in China is 22445, LME price is 3049, and the ratio is 5.56. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.45 with a profit of - 4718.86 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 21460, LME price is 2826, and the ratio is 7.60; for three - month, the price in China is 21545, LME price is 2854, and the ratio is 7.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.31 with a profit of - 2019.25 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 119150, LME price is 14633, and the ratio is 8.14. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.14 with a profit of - 1696.98 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16850, LME price is 1938, and the ratio is 8.72; for three - month, the price in China is 16955, LME price is 1977, and the ratio is 11.34. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.70 with a profit of 51.81 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 60, 100, 90, and 40 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 537, 971, 1415, and 1859 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 35, 65, 95, and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 457, and 578 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 30, 75, 95, and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 218, 338, 457, and 576 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 10, 10, 35, and 95 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, and 527 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 190, 400, 610, and 890 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of 5 - 1 is - 180, and the theoretical spread is 6234 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are - and - 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 338 and 828 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are - 70 and - 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 139 and 269 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are 95 and 105 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 154 and 266 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - consecutive) are 3.88, 4.04, 5.13, 0.96, 1.27, and 0.76 respectively, and for LME (triple - consecutive) are 3.63, 3.87, 5.51, 0.94, 1.42, and 0.66 respectively [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/27 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86690 10873 7.97 三月 86600 10865 7.97 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -712.75 现货出口 293.03 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22390 3171 7.06 三月 22365 3008 5.67 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.45 -4415.71 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21400 2784 7.68 三月 21505 2811 7.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.31 -1733.11 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120450 14652 8.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1756.72 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16950 1945 8.74 三月 17065 1986 11.26 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.69 96 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium futures are set to be listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27, 2025. The theoretical values of platinum and palladium on the listing day are lower than the benchmark prices, so the prices may initially decline to approach the forward parity structure. However, considering the high trading activity at the beginning of the domestic futures listing, the prices may first rise. In the long - term, the fundamentals of platinum and palladium are differentiated. Platinum has a stable and good fundamental situation and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, with a price range of 400 - 480 yuan/gram in the first half of next year. Palladium's demand is expected to remain weak, but its price center may rise slightly, with a price range of 350 - 420 yuan/gram in the first half of next year [2][41]. - Various investment strategies are proposed, including single - side strategies, spot - futures strategies, inter - period strategies, cross - variety strategies, and cross - market strategies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum Futures Contract Key Element Analysis - **Contract Details**: Platinum futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are PT2606, PT2608, and PT2610, with PT2606 expected to be the most active and the main contract. The listing price of each contract on the first day is 405 yuan/gram. The trading margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 14% of the benchmark price. If the contract has trading volume, from the next trading day, the trading margin level is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. Otherwise, the margin and limit range of the listing day will continue to apply [8]. - **Delivery Product Standards**: The benchmark delivery product of platinum futures requires a purity of not less than 99.95%. The impurity element content is specified according to different forms and sources, with different requirements for domestic and imported platinum ingots, spongy platinum, and powdered platinum [10]. - **Delivery Warehouse Settings and Regions**: Platinum futures have three types of delivery locations: warehouses, production - type factory warehouses, and trading - type factory warehouses. The first batch of factory warehouses and warehouses are all benchmark warehouses without any premium or discount. The maximum capacity of platinum in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 50.25 tons, with warehouses accounting for 79.6% and factory warehouses accounting for 20.4%. Factory warehouses are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Shanghai, and warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai [14][15]. - **Delivery Brand Settings**: Platinum futures implement a brand - based delivery system. There are 14 domestic registered brands and 26 overseas registered brands. Different brands can deliver different forms of platinum products [18]. 3.2 Palladium Futures Contract Key Element Analysis - **Contract Details**: Palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are PD2606, PD2608, and PD2610, with PD2606 expected to be the most active and the main contract. The listing price of each contract on the first day is 365 yuan/gram. The trading margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 14% of the benchmark price. If the contract has trading volume, from the next trading day, the trading margin level is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. Otherwise, the margin and limit range of the listing day will continue to apply [21]. - **Delivery Product Standards**: The benchmark delivery product of palladium futures requires a purity of not less than 99.95%. The impurity element content is specified according to different forms and sources, with different requirements for domestic and imported palladium ingots, spongy palladium, and powdered palladium [24]. - **Delivery Warehouse Settings and Regions**: Palladium futures have three types of delivery locations: warehouses, production - type factory warehouses, and trading - type factory warehouses. The first batch of factory warehouses and warehouses are all benchmark warehouses without any premium or discount. The maximum capacity of palladium in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 42.705 tons, with warehouses accounting for 93.67% and factory warehouses accounting for 6.33%. Factory warehouses are mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Gansu, and warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai [27][28]. - **Delivery Brand Settings**: Palladium futures implement a brand - based delivery system. There are 13 domestic registered brands and 24 overseas registered brands. Different brands can deliver different forms of palladium products [29]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Futures Investment Outlook - **Single - side Strategy on the Listing Day**: The theoretical values of platinum and palladium on the listing day are lower than the benchmark prices. In the short - term, the prices may decline to approach the forward parity structure. However, considering the high trading activity at the beginning of the domestic futures listing, the prices may first rise. From a fundamental perspective, the prices may show a pattern of rising first and then falling. In the next 12 months, the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate narrowly downward. In the medium - to - long term, platinum is expected to rise, with a price range of 400 - 480 yuan/gram in the first half of next year, while palladium's price center may rise slightly, with a price range of 350 - 420 yuan/gram in the first half of next year [2][39][41]. - **Spot - Futures Strategy Cost Calculation**: Taking the strategy of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract as an example, the cost of the platinum spot - futures strategy is about 7.5 yuan/gram, and the cost of the palladium spot - futures strategy is about 6.7 yuan/gram. If relevant opportunities arise, risk - free arbitrage strategies can be considered [43][44]. - **Inter - period Strategy**: Due to the regulation that the platinum and palladium delivery factories in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be uniformly cancelled in August each year, the price of the 2608 contract may be under pressure. Therefore, the inter - period strategy can consider buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract. When the price of PT2610 is about 5.1 yuan/gram higher than PT2606, and the price of PD2610 is about 4.6 yuan/gram higher than PD2606, there are risk - free positive arbitrage opportunities [48]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Based on the differentiated fundamentals of platinum and palladium, the cross - variety arbitrage strategy considers going long on platinum and short on palladium. If the platinum - to - palladium ratio approaches 1 after the contract listing, an arbitrage position can be considered, with a target ratio of 1.2 - 1.3 [53]. - **Cross - market Strategy**: There may be positive risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the cross - market part, which can be achieved by selling domestic futures and buying overseas spot forwards. The break - even points of this type of strategy are about 46.2 yuan/gram for platinum and about 42.9 yuan/gram for palladium [62].