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建信期货棉花日报-20250411
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 01:09
Industry - The industry covered in the report is cotton [1] Report Date - The report is dated April 11, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Amid the ongoing round - based game between China and the US, Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,144 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are cautious, with reduced trading volumes [7] - Trump has suspended the reciprocal tariff policy for most countries for 90 days for negotiations, still imposing a 10% global tariff during this period. China has raised the tariff rate on imported goods from the US from 34% to 84%, and Trump has increased tariffs on China to 125%. The White House will increase tariffs on small parcels from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong to 90% starting May 2. The current high tariff rates have led to an effective decoupling, but the re - export trade window remains. As of April 8, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states is 4%, slightly slower than last year's 5%. Cotton spring sowing has fully started in three major cotton - growing areas in China. After the release of pessimistic sentiment, the commodity market has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the weekly US cotton export contract signing and the USDA's April supply - demand report [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,144 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton. The basis quotes for cotton in different regions and contracts vary. The cotton yarn market is cautious, and the cotton fabric market has significantly reduced trading volumes [7] - **Policy and International Situation**: Trump's tariff policies and China's counter - measures have led to high tariff rates and an effective decoupling, but the re - export trade window remains. The cotton planting rate in the US is slightly slower than last year, and cotton spring sowing has started in China. After the release of pessimistic sentiment, the commodity market has rebounded. Attention should be paid to US cotton export contracts and the USDA report [8] 2. Industry News - In the US, new cotton sowing has started, with a planting rate of 4% as of April 6, 2025. Texas and Arizona have the highest planting rates at 6% and 13% respectively. In China, cotton spring sowing has fully started in three major cotton - growing areas, and local governments are promoting measures to improve cotton quality [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventory levels, and exchange rates, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][23][30]