在月初举行的澳大利亚联邦选举中，工党政府以压倒性优势实现连任，进一步巩固了其在政坛的主导地 位。目前，工党在众议院已占据90个席位，而反对党仅获40席，这一悬殊结果对保守派阵营构成沉重打 击。 尤为引人注目的是，素有"澳大利亚特朗普"之称的反对党领袖彼得·达顿在此次选举中意外落败，失去 了其议席。 此次选举结果标志着澳大利亚保守反对派已陷入边缘化境地，其内部因激烈争斗和相互指责而元气大 伤，未来数年恐难以重振旗鼓，更遑论成为主流政治力量。 无独有偶，早些时候，加拿大中间偏左的自由党也在联邦大选中脱颖而出，成功击败了此前民调领先25 个百分点的保守党。 加拿大保守党领袖皮埃尔·波利耶夫尔，这位曾被视为"加拿大特朗普"的政客，同样在选举中折戟沉 沙，失去了议席。 而在英国地方议会选举中，保守党更是遭遇了滑铁卢。在奈杰尔·法拉奇领导的民粹主义改革党的猛烈 攻势下，保守党失去了对多个地方议会和市长职位的控制权。 保守党领袖凯米·巴登诺克，这位特朗普的忠实拥趸，曾公开赞誉特朗普为"世界上一股向善的力量"， 并要求工党首相和外交部长为批评特朗普的行为道歉。 但她的这一立场并未能挽救保守党的颓势，反而使其陷入了更深的政治困 ...

Group 1 - The concept of fragmentation is defined as the phenomenon where global trade, investment, and technology exchanges become increasingly divided into relatively independent economic groups and regions due to cognitive biases, geopolitical factors, populism, and trade protectionism [2] - Trade protectionism and populism stem from cognitive biases, such as the belief that trade surpluses are exploitative and that tariffs primarily burden exporting countries rather than importing ones [2] - The recent agreement between the US and China to suspend most mutual tariffs highlights the importance of cooperation in the face of fragmentation [2] Group 2 - Constructive global cooperation is essential in addressing common challenges such as economic recession, climate change, and technological transformation [3] - There is a need to correct cognitive biases and emphasize the importance of economic trade balance and the relationship between trade deficits and the status of sovereign currencies as world currencies [3] - Encouraging technological innovation and cooperation, strengthening international capital ties, and improving policy coordination and transparency are crucial steps to counter fragmentation [3] Group 3 - The approach to dealing with conflicts should involve a firm commitment to beliefs, principles, and actions, emphasizing that globalization is an unstoppable trend [4] - The notion of "everyone's well-being is the true well-being" should guide efforts to address the issues of fragmentation [4]

Group 1 - The Democratic Party is currently facing significant internal divisions and challenges in responding to the Trump administration's policies, leading to a lack of unified strategy and direction [1][2][3] - There is a notable split within the Democratic Party regarding how to approach Trump, with some members advocating for compromise while others call for a clear opposition [2][3] - The party's internal conflicts are exacerbated by generational divides and differing ideologies, which hinder its ability to present a cohesive front [3][4] Group 2 - The expansion of presidential power under Trump has raised concerns about the balance of power in the U.S. government, with Trump utilizing executive orders to bypass Congress [5][6] - The Democratic Party's response to Trump's actions has been characterized by confusion and a lack of decisive action, leading to increased pressure from grassroots supporters for a stronger stance [6][10] - Recent grassroots movements and protests indicate a potential shift within the Democratic Party towards a more progressive and confrontational approach against Trump and his policies [10][11] Group 3 - The Democratic Party's historical ability to propose grand governance ideas is being challenged, as current internal divisions may lead to the emergence of more extreme factions within the party [9][10] - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 are seen as a critical opportunity for the Democratic Party to regroup and potentially introduce new leadership to revitalize its platform [12]

森特代表着三股势力（Reuters） 马斯克、特朗普、贝 河浪武史：特朗普的民粹主义、贝森特等致力于重组的全球主义、以及马斯克等酝酿的自由意志 主义，这三股势力在破坏现有体制上是一致的，但他们各自追求的"黄金时代"是不同的。特朗普 政府可能在四年内什么也建立不起来…… 河浪武史： 第二届特朗普政府已上台100天。政府刚上台时被亲昵地称为"蜜月期"，但特朗普所 推进的却是对战后80年秩序的彻底破坏。 "美中贸易有可能最多减少80％",敲响这一警钟的是世界贸易组织（WTO）总干事奥孔乔·伊韦阿 拉。特朗普政府对全世界课征额外关税，迅速将战后贸易秩序逼迫到了崩溃的边缘。 奥孔乔·伊韦阿拉的另一个烦恼是，WTO突然陷入资金困境。美国是承担WTO预算10％的最大出 资国，但特朗普政府冻结了相关资金。世界卫生组织（WHO）等机构也因美国冻结资金而面临 裁员担忧。 特朗普冻结的不只是对外资金。哈佛大学等美国知名大学的部分资助金也被叫停。从事癌症治疗 等研究的全球性组织"美国国立卫生研究院（NIH）"将裁员愈1000人，就连美国航空航天局 （NASA）也在讨论削减一半科学预算的问题。 美国一直用充裕的资金来培养最顶尖的人才， ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Trump's aggressive trade policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is intensifying, with Trump criticizing Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy amid rising tariffs and supply chain disruptions [1][3][11]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Criticism - Trump has previously criticized Powell's interest rate hikes, claiming they stifle economic growth, and has hinted at wanting Powell to resign [3]. - Trump attempted to use public opinion and legal avenues to remove Powell, threatening to fire him and exploring the possibility of doing so under "just cause" [3][6]. - Following warnings from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross about potential market turmoil from Powell's dismissal, Trump stated he had "never intended" to remove Powell but continued to criticize the Fed's policies [4][11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, has maintained its independence, emphasizing that monetary policy should not be influenced by political pressures [3][8]. - The Fed's internal unity is strong, with officials collectively defending their independence and emphasizing the need to combat inflation [7][8]. - The release of the Fed's Beige Book highlighted the negative impacts of tariffs, including rising costs and supply chain issues, which Powell used to reinforce the Fed's stance against political interference [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Financial markets reacted negatively to the rumors of Powell's potential dismissal, with significant sell-offs in stocks and bonds [4][7]. - The Beige Book reported widespread "cost-push inflation" across the U.S., with specific examples of industries facing severe cost increases and layoffs [7][8]. - As the 2026 elections approach, the ongoing conflict between the Fed's independence and political pressures will continue to shape economic conditions and market confidence in the U.S. financial system [11].

图片来源： linkedin 本⽂是桥⽔基⾦创始⼈达⾥奥的最新洞⻅。世界正站在⼀场深刻变⾰的悬崖边缘，⽽⼤多数⼈仍在凝 视脚下的裂痕，却未察觉整座⼭崖正在崩塌。特朗普的关税政策不过是表象，其背后是货币、政治与 地缘秩序的结构性断裂 —— 债务泡沫的膨胀已使全球经济沦为⼀场危险的债务狂欢，政治极化正撕裂 民主制度的根基，⽽单边主义的崛起正加速旧秩序的⽡解。历史从不重复，却总是押着相似的韵脚： 当不可持续的⽭盾堆积⾄临界点，系统终将以剧烈的⽅式重构。 瑞 · 达⾥奥是 全球最⼤对冲基⾦桥⽔的创始⼈。作为管理着 1600 亿美元资产的投资巨擘，达⾥奥以研 究债务周期和帝国兴衰闻名，其 " 原则 " ⽅法论被全球政商领袖奉为圭臬。以下是全⽂翻译： 当前，公众的注意⼒正合理聚焦于已宣布的关税政策及其对市场经济的重⼤冲击，但鲜少有⼈关注引 发这些政策的深层动因，以及未来可能出现的更⼤规模系统性断裂。 需要澄清的是，尽管特朗普政府的关税决策举⾜轻重，但多数⼈忽视了其当选总统的底层逻辑。 正 是这些未被充分认知的根源⼒量，不仅催⽣了关税政策，更驱动着⼏乎所有重⼤变⾰的进程。 真正需要警惕的，是主要货币秩序、政治秩序与地缘秩序 ...

Economic Policies - Trump's administration has initiated significant economic policies, notably threatening to impose tariffs on China, citing that the U.S. has been at a disadvantage in global trade [3][5] - A 25% tariff on all imported cars is set to take effect on April 2, which is expected to increase costs for Chinese products and ultimately raise prices for American consumers, leading to inflation and reduced profits for small businesses [5][32] Trade Relations - The trade war with China is anticipated to have severe repercussions, including reduced orders for Chinese export-oriented companies, potential layoffs, and bankruptcies [7] - The deterioration of U.S.-China trade relations could disrupt global industries and lead to significant volatility in stock, currency, and bond markets [7] Military and Foreign Policy - Trump's aggressive military stance is evident, with recent discussions among U.S. officials about potential military actions in Yemen, reflecting his broader ambitions in the Middle East [9][10] - The administration's approach towards Iran has been confrontational, having withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed sanctions, which has strained U.S.-Iran relations [10][12] Global Economic Impact - The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with economic challenges in Europe, create a precarious global environment, exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies [14][16] - The potential for increased oil prices due to military actions in the Middle East could further complicate the global economic landscape [12] Political Support - Trump's political backing from the Republican Party, which controls the Senate, facilitates the passage of his proposals, strengthening his position to implement aggressive economic measures [19][21] - The U.S. military's global dominance provides Trump with leverage in international relations, allowing him to pursue a more assertive foreign policy [23] Public Sentiment and Influence - Trump's ability to connect with his base through social media and populist rhetoric has solidified his support, despite facing opposition [25][28] - His recent experiences, including a near-assassination, have seemingly bolstered his public image and electoral support, contributing to his confidence in pursuing controversial policies [30] Upcoming Developments - With only five days until the implementation of the 25% tariff on imported cars, the global community is closely monitoring the situation, which could mark a significant shift in U.S. trade policy [32][34]