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无法终结的关税
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-10 02:01
Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting narratives that arise during economic crises in capitalist countries, highlighting the tendency to attribute crises to class oppression or to blame foreign entities and specific domestic groups [1][2] - Trump's narrative aligns with the latter, attributing job losses and income declines to trade surplus countries and immigrants, which has resonated with voters in the Rust Belt [3][4][6] - The article notes that Trump's economic nationalism has led to significant political support from traditionally Democratic voters in struggling industrial regions [6][7] Group 2 - The U.S. is the largest steel importer, relying on imports for about 30% of its steel needs, primarily from Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea [8] - During his first term, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum, which had limited effects due to exemptions for certain "friendly countries" [9][10] - In a recent announcement, Trump stated that tariffs on steel and aluminum would be doubled to 50%, claiming it would force American companies to buy from domestic suppliers [11] Group 3 - As of May 26, the average price of steel in the U.S. reached $901 per ton, double the global average, indicating that increased tariffs will further elevate domestic steel prices [12] - While higher steel prices may benefit the U.S. steel industry, they will impose cost pressures on sectors like automotive and construction, with Ford estimating a $1.5 billion profit reduction due to tariff impacts [13] - Economic analyses from Trump's first term suggest that while tariffs created thousands of steel jobs, they also resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of jobs in manufacturing and construction [14] Group 4 - The unprecedented 50% tariff will likely lead to continued reliance on imports in the short term, as equipment investments in the steel industry typically take years to materialize [15] - Rising prices for steel and aluminum could diminish the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing [16] - The article suggests that Trump's focus on economic nationalism may prioritize populist sentiments over actual manufacturing recovery [17] Group 5 - Canada and Mexico, as primary suppliers of steel and aluminum to the U.S., face severe industry impacts from the 50% tariffs, with suppliers indicating that such tariffs could devastate their sectors [18] - The article highlights the deep economic integration between Canada and the U.S., which has been beneficial for both nations, but notes that Trump's policies have prompted Canada to consider trade diversification [20][21] - The trade dependency is heavily skewed, with 78% of Canada's exports and 80% of Mexico's exports going to the U.S., while the U.S. imports only 14% and 15% from these countries, respectively [25][26] Group 6 - Trump's trade policies extend beyond economic issues, affecting immigration, drug cooperation, and water rights disputes [22][23] - The article emphasizes that the tariffs serve as a political tool, effectively a consumption tax that shifts costs and responsibilities while aiming to secure votes [34] - The potential for more radical populist leaders to emerge in the future is noted, suggesting that the current political climate may lead to even more extreme measures [36][37]
特朗普“死磕”哈佛,美国精英教育陷入“至暗时刻”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 01:31
Group 1 - Harvard University has become a focal point of global public opinion due to a series of controversial events reflecting deep societal contradictions in the U.S. [1] - The conflict between the Trump administration and Harvard is fundamentally about the boundaries of educational autonomy and government regulation, originating from protests supporting Palestine that sparked anti-Semitic controversies [3] - Harvard's response to the government's pressure included a public rebuttal, emphasizing academic freedom and institutional autonomy, contrasting sharply with the Trump administration's hardline stance [5] Group 2 - The Trump administration's measures, while causing widespread public uproar, face significant implementation challenges, such as vague standards for reporting international students' activities [5] - The financial implications of these policies could severely impact Harvard's revenue from international students, which amounts to hundreds of millions annually, and could hinder its STEM research projects due to talent loss [5] - The ongoing debate over educational equity in the U.S. highlights accusations against Harvard for implementing de facto discrimination through racial quotas in admissions, particularly against Asian students [11] Group 3 - The rise of nativist sentiments in the U.S. is reflected in the Trump administration's policies towards international students, which could undermine America's global innovation leadership [9] - The events at Harvard and other universities illustrate the tension between maintaining free speech and ensuring personal safety amid rising identity politics [13] - Overall, the controversies surrounding Harvard represent a microcosm of the broader challenges facing American society in balancing multicultural coexistence with national interests [15]
哈佛“封杀令”背后:当教育沦为政治博弈的牺牲品
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-06-04 22:36
Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced the suspension of Harvard University's eligibility to enroll new international students, revoking its SEVP certification, which directly impacts the university's ability to provide I-20 forms and F-1 visa applications [1] - Harvard will not accept any foreign students holding F/J visas for the 2025-2026 academic year, and current international students must transfer to other certified institutions to maintain their legal status in the U.S. [1] - Harvard has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration regarding the international student ban, and a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order to maintain the status quo until a hearing [1][2] Group 2 - The incident reflects a broader struggle between populism and elitism in American society, highlighting deep-rooted issues such as political interference, structural conflicts among elites, and the politicization of higher education [2] - Trump's administration's actions against Harvard are seen as a political maneuver to appeal to his base, which is characterized by populist sentiments and anti-elitism [9][15] - The event underscores the tension between the elite institutions of higher education and the working-class sentiments, as many feel marginalized by the prevailing meritocratic system [6][8] Group 3 - The concept of meritocracy in the U.S. has been criticized for perpetuating inequality, as it often favors affluent families over middle-class children, leading to a perception that the system is rigged against the latter [7][11] - Trump's rise to power is attributed to his ability to channel public discontent with the meritocratic system, positioning himself as a voice for those who feel left behind [8][10] - The ongoing conflict between populism and elitism raises questions about the future of education as a tool for social mobility and its role in political power dynamics [16]
历史学家、拳击手、反俄亲美,波兰新总统是谁?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-06-02 09:16
Core Points - Independent candidate Karol Nawrocki won the Polish presidential election with 50.89% of the votes, narrowly defeating Rafal Trzaskowski of the Civic Coalition, who received 49.11% [1] - The election results reflect deep social divisions in Poland, with Nawrocki's victory indicating a potential shift towards a more populist and nationalist direction under U.S. support [1][10] - Nawrocki, a historian and amateur boxer, received backing from the right-wing Law and Justice Party, suggesting a possible collaboration that could challenge the current government led by Prime Minister Tusk [1][5] Election Context - The Polish presidential role holds significant power in influencing foreign policy and legislative vetoes, beyond ceremonial duties [3] - Nawrocki will succeed Andrzej Duda, whose term ends on August 6, 2023, and the presidential term lasts five years with the possibility of one re-election [3] - The first round of voting on May 18 did not yield a majority winner, leading to a runoff between the top two candidates [3] Political Implications - Tusk's coalition government, which took office at the end of 2023, faces challenges in fulfilling campaign promises due to ideological divisions and legislative vetoes from Duda [5] - Nawrocki's election may complicate Tusk's ability to deliver on reforms, particularly in the judiciary, which has faced criticism from the EU [5] - Observers suggest that unfulfilled promises could jeopardize Tusk's government ahead of the next parliamentary elections scheduled for late 2027 [5] Nawrocki's Background - Nawrocki, currently the head of the Polish National Memory Institute, is seen as a new face for the Law and Justice Party, distancing from past scandals [7] - He has been involved in nationalist initiatives, including the removal of Soviet monuments, and is viewed as a protector of traditional values by his supporters [7][9] - Despite controversies regarding alleged criminal ties and past street fights, these issues have not significantly impacted his support among right-wing voters [9] International Relations - Former U.S. President Trump has openly supported Nawrocki, indicating potential strengthening of military relations between Poland and the U.S. if he assumes office [10] - Nawrocki has pledged continued support for Ukraine while criticizing its leadership and addressing concerns about Ukrainian refugees in Poland [10]
特朗普与哈佛的冲突:3亿美国人的意识形态在分裂
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-30 13:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between the Trump administration and Harvard University regarding the admission of international students, highlighting the ideological battle between right and left in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Background - The conflict stems from student protests against U.S. support for Israel, leading the Trump administration to accuse these movements of anti-Semitism and to impose restrictions on universities, including Harvard [4] - The Trump administration froze $2.6 billion in research funding to Harvard, which is significant given that Harvard's total revenue for 2024 is projected at $6.5 billion and its expenses at $6.4 billion [4] - Harvard's international students contribute over $300 million annually in tuition, making the administration's decision to revoke its ability to enroll international students impactful [4] Group 2: Ideological Divisions - The article identifies three core ideological conflicts shaping American society: globalism vs. nationalism, liberalism vs. conservatism, and elitism vs. populism [5][6][11] - Globalists advocate for U.S. involvement in international affairs and multiculturalism, while nationalists prioritize national interests and border control [7] - Liberals focus on individual rights and social justice, contrasting with conservatives who emphasize traditional values and limited government [10] - The rise of populism, exemplified by Trump, challenges the established elite, leading to a polarized information ecosystem where both sides have increasingly divergent views on facts [12] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The article notes that the Democratic Party is reflecting on its disconnect with ordinary citizens, as many feel alienated by the party's focus on diversity and identity politics [14] - Trump's support among Asian and Hispanic voters has increased, indicating a shift in political dynamics as these groups react against extreme policies [15] - The U.S. constitutional system is described as a balancing mechanism that encourages coexistence rather than the complete victory of one side over the other [15][16]
最新!特朗普再威胁哈佛,要求校方提供国际学生名单
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-26 01:19
每经编辑|毕陆名 据央视新闻26日消息,当地时间25日,美国总统特朗普威胁称,联邦政府将可能不再继续向哈佛大学提供新的拨款,并要求校方提供所有国际学生的姓名及 国籍信息,以便进一步审查。 《日本经济新闻》网站文章认为,来自全球的优秀人才曾支撑起美国的繁荣,而特朗普政府正试图切断这一循环。 近期在英国伦敦发布的《2025年全球软实力指数》显示,美国在国际社会的"声誉"指标明显下滑。软实力概念的提出者、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院前院长约 瑟夫·奈在去世前曾撰文说,美国吸引其他国家的能力已日渐衰落,特朗普政府的种种做法正严重损害美国的"软实力"。 斯普雷策表示,美国教育委员会在4月就给美国国务院和国土安全部致信,要求他们如果要撤销学生签证,终止学生及交流访问学者项目,就需要提供更多 信息,但并没有收到回应。 斯普雷策说,她担心准入学的国际学生觉得来美国风险太大,从而导致学生数量开始下降,而国际学生去年一年就给美国带来了430亿美元的经济收益。 另据新华社报道,针对特朗普政府对哈佛大学的"国际禁招令",哈佛大学教授瑞安·伊诺斯称,美国政府正试图对一个美国机构施加惩罚,原因仅仅是这个 机构没有屈服于美国政府的政治意愿。 美 ...
越模仿特朗普,“死”得越快?
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-19 05:58
在月初举行的澳大利亚联邦选举中,工党政府以压倒性优势实现连任,进一步巩固了其在政坛的主导地 位。目前,工党在众议院已占据90个席位,而反对党仅获40席,这一悬殊结果对保守派阵营构成沉重打 击。 尤为引人注目的是,素有"澳大利亚特朗普"之称的反对党领袖彼得·达顿在此次选举中意外落败,失去 了其议席。 此次选举结果标志着澳大利亚保守反对派已陷入边缘化境地,其内部因激烈争斗和相互指责而元气大 伤,未来数年恐难以重振旗鼓,更遑论成为主流政治力量。 无独有偶,早些时候,加拿大中间偏左的自由党也在联邦大选中脱颖而出,成功击败了此前民调领先25 个百分点的保守党。 加拿大保守党领袖皮埃尔·波利耶夫尔,这位曾被视为"加拿大特朗普"的政客,同样在选举中折戟沉 沙,失去了议席。 而在英国地方议会选举中,保守党更是遭遇了滑铁卢。在奈杰尔·法拉奇领导的民粹主义改革党的猛烈 攻势下,保守党失去了对多个地方议会和市长职位的控制权。 保守党领袖凯米·巴登诺克,这位特朗普的忠实拥趸,曾公开赞誉特朗普为"世界上一股向善的力量", 并要求工党首相和外交部长为批评特朗普的行为道歉。 但她的这一立场并未能挽救保守党的颓势,反而使其陷入了更深的政治困 ...
2025五道口金融论坛|欧阳卫民:贸易保护主义、民粹主义首先源于认知偏差
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-05-17 22:59
Group 1 - The concept of fragmentation is defined as the phenomenon where global trade, investment, and technology exchanges become increasingly divided into relatively independent economic groups and regions due to cognitive biases, geopolitical factors, populism, and trade protectionism [2] - Trade protectionism and populism stem from cognitive biases, such as the belief that trade surpluses are exploitative and that tariffs primarily burden exporting countries rather than importing ones [2] - The recent agreement between the US and China to suspend most mutual tariffs highlights the importance of cooperation in the face of fragmentation [2] Group 2 - Constructive global cooperation is essential in addressing common challenges such as economic recession, climate change, and technological transformation [3] - There is a need to correct cognitive biases and emphasize the importance of economic trade balance and the relationship between trade deficits and the status of sovereign currencies as world currencies [3] - Encouraging technological innovation and cooperation, strengthening international capital ties, and improving policy coordination and transparency are crucial steps to counter fragmentation [3] Group 3 - The approach to dealing with conflicts should involve a firm commitment to beliefs, principles, and actions, emphasizing that globalization is an unstoppable trend [4] - The notion of "everyone's well-being is the true well-being" should guide efforts to address the issues of fragmentation [4]
美国民主党去哪儿了
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-02 01:45
Group 1 - The Democratic Party is currently facing significant internal divisions and challenges in responding to the Trump administration's policies, leading to a lack of unified strategy and direction [1][2][3] - There is a notable split within the Democratic Party regarding how to approach Trump, with some members advocating for compromise while others call for a clear opposition [2][3] - The party's internal conflicts are exacerbated by generational divides and differing ideologies, which hinder its ability to present a cohesive front [3][4] Group 2 - The expansion of presidential power under Trump has raised concerns about the balance of power in the U.S. government, with Trump utilizing executive orders to bypass Congress [5][6] - The Democratic Party's response to Trump's actions has been characterized by confusion and a lack of decisive action, leading to increased pressure from grassroots supporters for a stronger stance [6][10] - Recent grassroots movements and protests indicate a potential shift within the Democratic Party towards a more progressive and confrontational approach against Trump and his policies [10][11] Group 3 - The Democratic Party's historical ability to propose grand governance ideas is being challenged, as current internal divisions may lead to the emergence of more extreme factions within the party [9][10] - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 are seen as a critical opportunity for the Democratic Party to regroup and potentially introduce new leadership to revitalize its platform [12]
三股合力摧毁美国现有体制,但愿景不同
日经中文网· 2025-04-30 03:05
森特代表着三股势力(Reuters) 马斯克、特朗普、贝 河浪武史:特朗普的民粹主义、贝森特等致力于重组的全球主义、以及马斯克等酝酿的自由意志 主义,这三股势力在破坏现有体制上是一致的,但他们各自追求的"黄金时代"是不同的。特朗普 政府可能在四年内什么也建立不起来…… 河浪武史: 第二届特朗普政府已上台100天。政府刚上台时被亲昵地称为"蜜月期",但特朗普所 推进的却是对战后80年秩序的彻底破坏。 "美中贸易有可能最多减少80%",敲响这一警钟的是世界贸易组织(WTO)总干事奥孔乔·伊韦阿 拉。特朗普政府对全世界课征额外关税,迅速将战后贸易秩序逼迫到了崩溃的边缘。 奥孔乔·伊韦阿拉的另一个烦恼是,WTO突然陷入资金困境。美国是承担WTO预算10%的最大出 资国,但特朗普政府冻结了相关资金。世界卫生组织(WHO)等机构也因美国冻结资金而面临 裁员担忧。 特朗普冻结的不只是对外资金。哈佛大学等美国知名大学的部分资助金也被叫停。从事癌症治疗 等研究的全球性组织"美国国立卫生研究院(NIH)"将裁员愈1000人,就连美国航空航天局 (NASA)也在讨论削减一半科学预算的问题。 美国一直用充裕的资金来培养最顶尖的人才, ...