今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第5个工作日，当前预计上调油价120元/吨，折合每升油价上调0.09-0.11 元，相比昨日的油价预计涨幅增加5元/吨， 超上调红线，油价大涨中。 注意，国际油价转跌 注意，此前暂停生产的哈萨克斯坦油田正计划恢复供应，外加地缘政治紧张局势暂缓影响，国际油价目 前又有下跌走势，本轮油价调整有机会转跌了？ 本轮油价调整时间：2月3日24时 | 地区 | 92号汽油 | 95号汽油 | 98号汽油 | 0号柴油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 6.77 | 7.21 | 8.71 | 6.45 | | 上海 | 6.74 | 7.17 | 9.17 | 6.39 | | 江苏 | 6.75 | 7.18 | 9.24 | 6.37 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天津 | 6.76 | 7.15 | 8.65 | 6.41 | | 重庆 | 6.85 | 7.23 | 8.73 | 6.48 | | 江西 | 6.74 | 7.23 | 8.73 | 6.45 | | 辽宁 | 6.86 | 7.33 ...

但是，按照油价以隔夜原油变化为引导，因此，1月23日隔夜原油价格的变化，这也将影响下一个工作日国内汽柴油调整的幅度！受此影响，下周一1月25 日，新周期第4个工作日，基于原油市场，隔夜WTI原油报价61.07美元/桶（+2.9%），布伦特原油报价65.88美元/桶（+2.8%），国内油价涨幅或大幅增 加，下周初，三地原油变化率或增加至2.4%，笔者预估上涨幅度或扩大至115-120元/吨左右，新周期油价上涨或大势所趋…… 如今，按照油价调整安排，距离2月3日24时新周期调价，倒计时还剩10天，理论来看，此次油价将迎来2026年"第2涨"，笔者也将继续跟踪市场的变化，希 望下周原油价格能够降下来，对此，大家认为汽柴油最终能涨多少？欢迎留言！ 油价调整，进入1月末，本月，成品油2次调价皆已落地，市场呈现"1涨1平"的局面，这也扭转了2025年末汽柴油"寻底"的基本面，油价重心上移！且，2026 年油价"首涨"后，新周期，受原油市场支撑较强，国内原油变化率正向调整，尤其是，隔夜地缘局势陡然升温，下周初，新周期第4个工作日，国内油价涨 幅"或大增"，具体分析如下： 在原油市场，近期，国际油价呈现剧烈震荡的走势，元月以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oil prices are currently on an upward trend, but the rate of increase has significantly narrowed, with expectations of potential price adjustments in the upcoming cycle [1][3]. Oil Price Historical Context - In the second adjustment of 2026, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 85 yuan per ton, with a total price increase of 205 yuan per ton during the cycle due to a rebound in international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions [3]. - As of now, the domestic fuel prices reflect the first increase of 2026, with gasoline prices rising to 0.07 yuan per liter, indicating that the cost for consumers remains relatively low compared to recent years [3]. Latest Oil Price Developments - The current adjustment cycle began on January 21, 2026, and is set to conclude on February 3, 2026, with initial expectations of a price increase of 125 yuan per ton due to strong international oil prices [5]. - However, recent declines in international oil prices, including a drop of 2.08% for WTI crude to $59.36 per barrel and a 1.81% drop for Brent crude to $64.06 per barrel, have led to a significant reduction in the expected price increase for domestic oil [5]. - The current average price of crude oil is $62.42 per barrel, with a reference change rate of 1.96%, suggesting a potential increase of 0.08 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel prices [5]. Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a positive trend in oil prices, but with the recent drop in international oil prices, there is a possibility of price adjustments downward in the domestic market if the trend continues [5]. - The increase in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories by 3 million barrels has strengthened expectations of oversupply, which could further influence domestic price movements [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil market in 2026 is experiencing a significant shift from a period of low prices to an anticipated increase, signaling a rise in consumer costs [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices are evaluated every 10 working days, closely linked to international oil prices, reflecting global supply and demand fluctuations [3]. - By the end of 2025, oil prices had undergone three consecutive reductions, with a total decrease of nearly 300 yuan per ton, bringing 92 and 95 gasoline prices to their lowest levels in five years [3]. - The first price adjustment window in January 2026 was suspended due to a change not exceeding 50 yuan per ton, maintaining prices at the end of 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A turning point occurred in the new pricing cycle starting January 7, 2026, where initial expectations indicated a drop of about 120 yuan per ton, but international oil prices unexpectedly rebounded, leading to an anticipated increase of 80 yuan per ton [4]. - The current average price for 92 gasoline is approximately 6.76 yuan per liter, with regional variations reflecting transportation costs, supply-demand relationships, and tax policies [6]. - The price differences across regions, such as 7.82 yuan in Hainan and 6.53 yuan in Xinjiang for 92 gasoline, illustrate the complex interplay of logistics, consumption habits, and policy influences [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The second adjustment in 2026 is expected to conclude with a slight increase, marking the end of the previous downward trend and indicating that the low oil price window may be closing [8]. - Future oil price trends will closely follow international oil supply and demand dynamics, influenced by geopolitical factors, speculative sentiments, and macroeconomic policies [8]. - Consumers are advised to stay informed about official price adjustments and manage their consumption accordingly, as oil price fluctuations impact living costs and economic expectations [8].

Group 1 - The domestic refined oil retail prices are expected to increase for the first time in 2023, with a predicted rise of 85 yuan per ton for both gasoline and diesel [1] - As of January 19, the reference crude oil change rate was 2.03%, leading to an increase in retail prices of approximately 0.07 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 gasoline, and 0.07 yuan for 0 diesel [1] - After the price adjustment, the standard price for 92 gasoline in Zibo will rise to around 6.74 yuan per liter, while 95 gasoline will increase to approximately 7.23 yuan per liter [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks continue to create uncertainties that may disrupt international oil prices, while macroeconomic pressures and industry oversupply are suppressing upward momentum [2] - Analysts predict that the global oil supply will remain relatively loose by 2026, with structural oversupply pressures continuing, leading to a rebalancing period characterized by inventory accumulation and price pressure [2] - The next price adjustment window is scheduled to open on February 3, 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's refined oil prices will increase starting January 21, with a rise of 0.07-0.08 yuan per liter for various fuel types [1] Price Adjustments - The price of 92-octane gasoline will be adjusted to 6.74 yuan per liter [1] - The price of 95-octane gasoline will be adjusted to 7.17 yuan per liter [1] - The price of 0-octane diesel will be adjusted to 6.39 yuan per liter [1] - The increase in cost for filling a 50L tank with 92-octane gasoline will be approximately 3.5 yuan [1] Additional Information - The price of 98-octane gasoline is subject to enterprise self-pricing [1] - The prices listed comply with the sixth phase of the mandatory national standards for vehicle gasoline and diesel [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have led to an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China, effective from January 20, with a rise of 85 yuan per ton for both fuels [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 85 yuan per ton starting January 20 at 24:00 [1]. - The adjustment is based on the average price comparison of the first ten working days of January with the previous adjustment period [1]. Group 2: Market Regulation - Major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are required to ensure stable supply and adhere to national pricing policies [1]. - Local authorities are tasked with enhancing market supervision and strictly enforcing compliance with national price policies to maintain market order [1]. Group 3: Retail Prices - The highest retail prices for gasoline and diesel across various provinces and municipalities have been detailed, with prices varying by region [2][3]. - The prices include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax, and educational fees [3].

| 索 引 号: | 011043110/2026-03318 | 分 | 物价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布机构: | 价格管理处 む | 发文日期： | 2026年01月20日 | | 名 称: | 2026年1月20日24时起湖北成品油价格按机制上调 | 文 | 元 | | 效力状态: | 有效 | 发布日期: | 2026年01月20日 | 以油箱容量50升的普通私家车计算，此次调整后，用92号汽油加满一箱油要多花3.5元。 本轮是2026年成品油的第2次调价。按照当前成品油调价周期测算，下一次调价窗口将在2026年2月3日24时开启。 省发改委发布油价最新调整通知 湖北日报讯（记者谢慧敏）车主们注意了，2026年油价第一波涨价要来了！ 从省发改委获悉，自今晚（1月20日）24时起，我省将上调汽柴油限价，省内92号、95号汽油、0号柴油每升分别上调0.07元、0.07元、0.08元。 省发改委价格管理处介绍，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据1月20日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品 油价格机制，自1月20日24时起，国内汽 ...

Group 1 - The current oil price adjustment is expected to increase by 80 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.06-0.07 yuan per liter, which is a rise of 5 yuan per ton compared to last Friday's prices, exceeding the adjustment threshold [1][3] - International oil prices have shown a fluctuating trend following a significant drop last Thursday, with U.S. crude oil rising by 0.12% to $59.22 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.30% to $64.04 per barrel [3] - The market is anticipating a steady increase in domestic oil prices, with the next adjustment expected to be an upward trend, encouraging consumers to refuel in advance [3][4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation has cooled, but potential conflict risks remain, which could affect oil prices if the U.S. does not take substantial actions [3] - The U.S. has communicated directly with Iran regarding its economic situation, suggesting that diplomatic solutions could be pursued for Iran to reintegrate into the international community [3] - Overall, international oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits further data and news [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in oil prices have created uncertainty for consumers, with a potential price increase looming after a series of recent price adjustments [1][13]. Price Fluctuations - Over the past five months, oil prices have been highly volatile, with ten adjustments made: six decreases, one increase, and three unchanged [1]. - The price of gasoline has decreased significantly, with savings of approximately 30-40 yuan per tank for consumers [1]. Regional Price Differences - There are notable regional disparities in gasoline prices across China, with northern regions generally enjoying lower prices compared to southern areas like Hainan, where prices are significantly higher due to transportation costs and seasonal demand [2][3]. - For example, the price of 92-octane gasoline in Hainan is nearing 8.1 yuan per liter, while in places like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, it is around 6.67 yuan [2]. Current Pricing Data - Latest gasoline prices (in yuan per liter) include: - Northeast: Liaoning 7.91, Jilin 7.84, Heilongjiang 8.14 [4] - North China: Beijing 8.64, Tianjin 8.57, Hebei 7.89 [5] - East China: Shanghai 9.10, Jiangsu 9.16, Zhejiang 8.61 [6] - Diesel prices in various regions are also provided, with Northeast prices around 6.19-6.26 yuan per liter [7]. Upcoming Price Adjustments - A new price adjustment is expected soon, with current data indicating a potential increase of 70 yuan per ton, surpassing the threshold for an increase [13]. - Consumers are advised to monitor the situation closely, as international oil prices have shown recent downward trends, adding to the uncertainty of future price movements [13].