智通财经获悉，由于投资者愈发担忧美国可能即将在中东采取军事行动并扰乱该地区石油供应，对冲基 金对布伦特原油的看涨情绪达到自2024年4月以来最高水平。洲际交易所欧洲期货市场数据显示，截至2 月24日当周，基金经理将其布伦特原油净多头头寸增加57,766手，至320,952手，为近两年来的最高水 平。美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示，对美国WTI原油的看涨押注也升至七个月高点。 伊朗军方2月27日表示，将对美国的任何侵略行为予以"毁灭性"回应。伊朗媒体援引伊朗武装部队总参 谋部发言人谢卡尔希的话报道称，美国的任何挑衅行为都将遭到伊朗武装部队"果断且毁灭性"的回击。 美国总统特朗普2月27日表示，他"不满意"当前伊核谈判进展，但尚未就是否对伊朗发动军事打击作出 最终决定。他在离开白宫时对记者说，谈判中，伊朗不愿意向美国提供美方"应得的东西"，他"很不满 意"。特朗普称，美国尚未就是否对伊朗发起军事打击作出最终决定，将观察"进一步谈判后会发生什 么"。特朗普还表示，他不想动武，"但有时候不得不这么做"。他重申不允许伊朗拥有核武器。此外， 随着局势持续紧张，多国纷纷发布安全提醒，建议本国公民撤离、或呼吁避 ...

在供应端，高盛报告还指出，俄罗斯石油生产正受到乌克兰袭击的持续压力，进一步加剧了短期供应的 不确定性。不过从中长期来看，新增产能正在陆续释放。高盛表示，沙特、巴西、尼日利亚、乌干达和 美国的多个新项目将于今年投产，其中沙特的贾富拉油气田已于去年12月投产，祖卢夫油田也将在年内 上线。 综合地缘风险与供需格局的演变，高盛重申其此前预测：布伦特原油价格将在今年第四季度回落至每桶 60美元。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 在美伊紧张局势持续发酵的背景下，地缘政治因素正深刻影响着全球原油定价逻辑。高盛集团在2月25 日发布的研报中指出，当前油价已隐含每桶5至6美元的伊朗风险溢价，这一溢价源于美国可能对伊朗发 动军事打击的预期。 高盛在报告中分析称，上述风险溢价与全球主要定价中心库存持续下降两大因素叠加，共同支撑布伦特 原油价格维持在每桶70美元出头的水平。数据显示，全球显性库存上周日均减少50万桶，2月以来日均 降幅达30万桶，库存去化趋势明显。 与此同时，伊朗方面的供应动态同样值得关注。高盛在报告中提到，伊朗原油装载量已攀升至2018年以 ...

但是，按照油价以隔夜原油变化为引导，因此，1月23日隔夜原油价格的变化，这也将影响下一个工作日国内汽柴油调整的幅度！受此影响，下周一1月25 日，新周期第4个工作日，基于原油市场，隔夜WTI原油报价61.07美元/桶（+2.9%），布伦特原油报价65.88美元/桶（+2.8%），国内油价涨幅或大幅增 加，下周初，三地原油变化率或增加至2.4%，笔者预估上涨幅度或扩大至115-120元/吨左右，新周期油价上涨或大势所趋…… 如今，按照油价调整安排，距离2月3日24时新周期调价，倒计时还剩10天，理论来看，此次油价将迎来2026年"第2涨"，笔者也将继续跟踪市场的变化，希 望下周原油价格能够降下来，对此，大家认为汽柴油最终能涨多少？欢迎留言！ 油价调整，进入1月末，本月，成品油2次调价皆已落地，市场呈现"1涨1平"的局面，这也扭转了2025年末汽柴油"寻底"的基本面，油价重心上移！且，2026 年油价"首涨"后，新周期，受原油市场支撑较强，国内原油变化率正向调整，尤其是，隔夜地缘局势陡然升温，下周初，新周期第4个工作日，国内油价涨 幅"或大增"，具体分析如下： 在原油市场，近期，国际油价呈现剧烈震荡的走势，元月以 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate and move upward as the market continues to price in geopolitical risks [1] - The absolute prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are likely to follow the oil price fluctuations, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing greater subsequent supply - demand pressure [2] - The asphalt market is expected to be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation", with prices expected to stabilize and strengthen [2] - Polyester prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to the game between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices [3] - Rubber prices may rebound due to a warming macro - expectation but could be pressured by inventory accumulation [3] - Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the current tense situation in Iran potentially increasing its volatility [5] - Polyolefins are likely to oscillate at the bottom, with inventory expected to rise gradually from late January [5] - PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the 05 contract showing a structure of weak reality and strong expectation [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI February contract rose $0.38 to $59.50 per barrel (0.64% increase), Brent March contract rose $0.53 to $63.87 per barrel (0.84% increase), and SC2602 fell 0.3 yuan to 435.4 yuan per barrel (0.07% decrease). Market concerns about reduced Iranian exports offset the expected increase in Venezuelan supply. The price center of oil is expected to oscillate upward [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 fell 1.32% to 2461 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.93% to 3026 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market will have sufficient supply in the short - term, while the high - sulfur market has some support. With Venezuelan heavy crude entering the market, it may be negative for relevant spreads. Short - term prices are expected to follow oil prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 fell 0.25% to 3157 yuan per ton. Due to the Venezuelan situation, the expectation of tight processing raw materials strengthens cost - side support, and refinery supply decreases. The market is expected to be in a game between weak demand and strong cost expectation, with prices expected to stabilize and strengthen [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 0.67% to 5142 yuan per ton, EG2605 rose 0.36% to 3880 yuan per ton, and the PX futures contract 603 rose 0.97% to 7308 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were moderately good. Some devices had changes. The market is in a game between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices, with prices expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. The supply of ethylene glycol is still abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 100 yuan to 16130 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 60 yuan to 13010 yuan per ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. In the United States, tire imports from different countries had different changes. In December 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year. The rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. Rubber prices may rebound due to a warming macro - expectation but could be pressured by inventory accumulation [3][5] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2260 yuan per ton. In January, the arrival volume will decline significantly, and the MTO device load will also decrease. The port will face de - stocking pressure. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the Iranian situation potentially increasing volatility [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6350 - 6500 yuan per ton. In January, the supply may decrease slightly, and demand is expected to recover in the first half of the month but weaken in the second half due to the Spring Festival. Polyolefins are likely to oscillate at the bottom [5][7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China had different adjustments. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. The export policy change will put pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7] Daily Data Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The spot price of Oman crude was 426.82 yuan per barrel on January 12, the futures price of SC was 435.70 yuan per barrel, the basis was - 8.88 yuan per barrel, and the basis rate was - 2.04% [8] - **Other Varieties**: Similar data on spot prices, futures prices, basis, and basis rates are provided for various energy - chemical products such as liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. [8] Market News - Market concerns about reduced Iranian exports during the anti - government protests offset the expected increase in Venezuelan supply. Iran is in communication with the US, and Trump is considering how to respond to the protests in Iran [10] - After the Venezuelan president was taken away by the US, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon. Trump said Venezuela will transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and oil companies are preparing for transportation [10] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. from 2022 to 2026 [12][14][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis data for main contracts of different products, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over different time periods [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts illustrate the production profits of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [66][68] Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards, and has served many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises [71] - **Du Bingqin**: Research Director of Energy and Chemicals. She has a background in finance, has won many industry awards, and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [72] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards in the industry and is good at data analysis [73] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, etc. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [74]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve in Q1 2026, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets [1][18]. - The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index is due to rising geopolitical risks after the US's actions in Venezuela [3][12][13]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued, while the bond market may still face downward pressure after a rapid rise [19][22]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, palm oil may face supply pressure, and copper prices are mainly affected by macro factors [24][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The arrest of the Venezuelan president by the US has increased geopolitical tensions, but the impact on the financial market is expected to be limited. Short - term precious metals may face correction risks [10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US's actions in Venezuela have raised geopolitical risks, causing the US dollar index to strengthen in the short term. The US dollar is expected to rise in the short term [3][12][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US air strike on Venezuela may cause short - term market risk aversion, but the market risk appetite is expected to improve. US stocks are expected to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [15][16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets. The long - position strategy for stock indices should be continued [18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The new fee rate regulations are short - term positive for the bond market, but cannot reverse the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices [2][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In December 2025, Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased, and the inventory may exceed 3 million tons. It is advisable to wait for India's increased purchases and consider going long at low levels [23][24][25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CBOT soybeans declined due to poor export prospects. Domestic soybean crushing is expected to decrease in January. Soybean meal is expected to decline with CBOT soybean futures prices [28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The global sugar market is expected to have a small surplus in 2025/26. The sugar price may be sensitive to weather and production changes. Pay attention to the actual stocking and sales progress [30][32][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton export demand is weak, and the Indian import tariff exemption has expired. The external market is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Be wary of the risk of a decline in Zhengzhou cotton [38][39]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of market contradictions [44][45]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on December 31, 2025. The demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the coal mine's production in January [45][46]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Samarco mine expansion project was suspended. The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the steel mills' raw material replenishment after January [47][48]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro factors have a great impact on copper prices. Fundamentally, short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to buy at low prices [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's supply contraction expectation is being realized. Unilaterally, it is advisable to consider going long at low levels. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There may be short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the medium term [58][59][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon enterprises have raised spot quotes. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels, but investors should hold positions carefully [60][61]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The current production reduction scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern in 2026. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [63][64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand contradictions of tin are alleviated, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the withdrawal of funds [68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fundamental contradictions of lead are marginally alleviated. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach both unilaterally and in terms of arbitrage [69][70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The short - term fundamentals of zinc have no obvious contradictions. Unilaterally, wait for the opportunity to take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [71][72][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The short - term risk premium of crude oil prices may rise moderately, and the long - term supply growth depends on US investment [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant decline due to the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, with prices dropping over 8% in a single day, effectively reversing gains made since June 13 [1][2][3] Oil Price Movement - On June 23, international oil prices fell sharply after initial increases due to heightened geopolitical risks, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by $6.61 to $67.23 per barrel (down 8.95%) and Brent crude oil futures falling by $6.36 to $70.65 per barrel (down 8.26%) [2] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, oil prices continued to decline, nearly erasing all gains from the previous weeks [1][3] Impact on Oil and Shipping Stocks - The oil and shipping sectors in the A-share market faced significant losses on June 24, with companies like Shandong Molong and Tongyuan Petroleum hitting their daily limit down [1][4] - Prior to the decline, oil-related stocks had surged, with Shandong Molong experiencing a nearly 95.44% increase from June 13 to June 23 [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the easing of geopolitical tensions will shift market focus back to fundamental and macroeconomic drivers, with expectations of oil prices stabilizing in the $60-$65 per barrel range for Q3, but facing potential downward pressure in Q4 [6] - The market is also influenced by OPEC's continued production increases and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Israel and Palestine have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, leading to a significant impact on the crude oil market, with multiple SC crude oil contracts hitting the limit down [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The ceasefire has resulted in a near disappearance of risk premium in crude oil prices, raising questions about whether oil prices will return to a downward trend in the future [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On June 23, the domestic commodity futures market saw more declines than gains, with main contracts for logs, pulp, LU, and coking coal rising over 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1403.89 points, down 0.89 points or 0.06% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - SC crude oil opened high but closed with a 0.30% increase, influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential Iranian actions affecting oil supply [2] - The geopolitical risk premium for oil is expected to rise by approximately $15 due to the situation in the Middle East, with an additional $5 expected for China's SC crude oil due to increased freight costs and supply concerns [2] Group 3: Lumber Market Activity - The main contract for logs rose by 1.87% on June 23, reaching a two-month high, driven by active inquiries and increased procurement by spot enterprises [3] - The market for logs is supported by tight supply in Shandong and improved export policies, with rising costs due to increased shipping rates and currency depreciation [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - Pulp and coking coal also saw increases of over 1% [4] - The main contract for the European shipping index fell sharply by 4.67%, leading the market decline, attributed to weak market sentiment despite geopolitical concerns [5] - The main contract for polysilicon fell for the fifth consecutive trading day, down 3.30%, reaching a new low of 30,605 yuan/ton, driven by declining demand and supply expectations [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices rose significantly, with the largest single - day increase in years on Friday and an enlarged intraday amplitude. The geopolitical risk has soared due to the conflict between Israel and Iran. The risk of oil price increase remains high as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories are flat, U.S. commercial inventories continue to decline, and refined oil products are accumulating. The profits of refineries around the world have declined this week, while the operating rate of domestic main refineries has increased significantly. The absolute price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Oil Price Data - From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the price of BRENT crude oil increased from $74.23 to $78.85, a change of $2.15. The price of SC increased from 529.90 to 570.90, a change of 18.20. Other related oil - related product prices also showed certain fluctuations [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Citi estimates that a 1.1 million - barrel - per - day disruption of Iranian oil supply means the Brent crude price should be between $75 and $78 per barrel. If the oil supply disruption reaches 3 million barrels per day, the oil price will rise to $90. JPMorgan predicts that in the most extreme case of a wider - area conflict including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may soar to $120 - $130 per barrel. Trump postponed the decision on striking Iran, which alleviated the concern of immediate escalation of the situation, and the oil price remained stable [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 1.075 million barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 0.3 million barrels to 13.431 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 2.65%. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 402.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. In China, the operating rate of main refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - The recent rise in oil prices is mainly due to geopolitical risks. The conflict between Israel and Iran is out of the negotiation framework and beyond market expectations. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is the biggest factor affecting oil prices. Fundamentally, the support of fundamentals for oil prices is weaker than during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The absolute price of oil is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [5].

Group 1: Macro and Stock Index - The Lujiazui Forum released eight major financial policies, including the establishment of a bank - to - bank market transaction reporting library and a digital RMB international operation center. Policies such as optimizing the functions of free trade accounts and developing free - trade offshore bonds are beneficial to cross - border capital flows and foreign - trade enterprise financing, injecting liquidity expectations into the market [2]. - The Shanghai Composite 50 index fell 0.15%, the CSI 300 rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 fell 0.09%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.53%. The 1 - year implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index option was 21.2%, higher than that of the CSI 300 (15.6%), indicating a higher expected volatility for small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - The futures discount rates of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, reflecting short - term selling pressure. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the resonance between technical repair and policy benefits [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The conflict between Iran and Israel is a key factor affecting oil prices. Market sentiment is cautious, and oil price volatility has increased significantly. The summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, supporting price increases [3]. - If the Middle East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel, continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Multiple institutions predict that if the conflict expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the conflict eases, the risk premium of crude oil will quickly decline [3]. - The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3]. Group 3: Gold - Israel's expanded military strikes on Iran and the threat of enhanced sanctions by the Trump administration have increased the risk of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a continuous increase in the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. Trump's claim to impose new tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry has also intensified concerns about global trade frictions [4]. - The world's largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) has seen inflows for three consecutive days. Gold prices have been consolidating for two consecutive days, trading below $3400 per ounce in the Asian session. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and policy guidance [4][5]. - In the short term, gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, central - bank gold purchases, and expectations of interest - rate cuts, but volatility will increase. If the Fed sends a dovish signal or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, gold prices may break through $3400. If the geopolitical situation eases or the Fed delays interest - rate cuts, gold prices may回调 to $3350 [5]. Group 4: Silver - On June 18, 2025, during the Asian session, the spot silver price reached a high of $37.313 per ounce, the highest since 2012, and maintained a high - level volatile pattern [6]. - The continuous escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the strengthening of the US military deployment in the Middle East, and Trump's threat to impose new tariffs have increased geopolitical risks, driving up the price of silver. The short - term profit - taking of funds has not changed the net increase in holdings throughout the year [6]. - Silver has broken through the resistance around $37 under the resonance of its financial and industrial attributes. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the Fed's FOMC interest - rate decision on silver prices [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China was 5205 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton, and the basis was 309 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil prices supported PTA prices, but the upside was limited [7]. - In June, PTA plant maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The inventory days were 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period. Polyester factory and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom loads decreased, and the textile market was in a off - season [7]. - In the short term, PTA prices may fluctuate following the cost side [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China was 4547 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 77 yuan/ton, and the basis was 76 yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants stopped production, but the overall operating rate increased [8]. - The inventory in East China's main ports decreased, and the demand from polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms declined, with a decrease in terminal order days [8]. - In the short term, ethylene glycol prices may show a narrow - range bullish fluctuation [8]. PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton. The supply side decreased slightly, and the demand from domestic downstream enterprises did not improve significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [9]. - As of June 12, PVC social inventory decreased, but the fundamentals did not improve significantly, and the futures price was oscillating at a low level [9]. - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [9]. PP - The mainstream prices of PP拉丝 in North, East, and South China increased slightly. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene increased, and domestic production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - The average operating rate of downstream industries decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals were weak [10]. - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in market sentiment [10][11]. Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North, East, and South China increased. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises increased, while the operating rate of downstream products decreased [12]. - The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased. The futures price rebounded due to the increase in crude - oil prices, but the fundamentals were weak [12]. - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in market sentiment [12]. Soda Ash - The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The overall operating rate of soda ash increased, and production increased significantly [14]. - The manufacturer's inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The demand was average, and the market lacked new driving forces [14]. - The futures market of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The market prices of 5mm large - size glass in different regions remained unchanged. The operating rate of float glass increased slightly, and the weekly output decreased slightly [15]. - The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand remained weak [15]. - The glass futures market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber and raw - material prices in He'ai were provided. Rubber prices rebounded due to market sentiment, but the increase was restricted by the repeated trade - war situation and the oversupply situation [17]. - The domestic and Southeast - Asian rubber - producing areas have entered the harvest season, with a loose supply situation. The operating rates of downstream tire enterprises increased [17]. - Attention should be paid to the operating conditions of the downstream rubber industry, and rubber prices are expected to rebound due to market resonance [17]. Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol increased. The futures price of the main contract increased, and the port inventory increased. The domestic operating rate of the methanol industry decreased slightly, and Iranian methanol plants stopped production due to geopolitical conflicts [18][19]. - The operating rates of MTO and MTBE devices increased, while the demand from traditional downstream industries remained weak [19]. - In the short term, the futures price of methanol may maintain a slightly bullish oscillation. Attention should be paid to changes in port inventory and the recovery of Iranian plants [19]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China and North China were provided. The USDA's June supply - and - demand report was slightly bullish, but the support was limited [20]. - The domestic corn market is in a transitional period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Downstream demand is weak, but the substitution effect of wheat has decreased, which is beneficial to corn prices [20]. - The main corn futures contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the upper resistance level [20]. Peanut - The spot prices of peanuts in different regions were provided. The increase in the bio - fuel standard in the United States has supported the peanut - futures market, but there is no continuous upward momentum for peanut prices [21]. - It is estimated that the domestic peanut - planting area will increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with a situation of weak supply and demand. Low inventory may drive up prices [21]. - In the short term, the main peanut - futures contract is unlikely to have a trending market and is expected to oscillate within a range [21]. Cotton - The spot price index of Chinese cotton and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton were provided. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the USDA's supply - and - demand report have had a bullish impact on cotton prices [22]. - The expected increase in cotton production in the new year may lead to a loose supply situation. Currently, cotton imports are low, and commercial inventory is lower than in previous years. The textile market is in an off - season, with insufficient new orders and increasing inventory pressure [22][23]. - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the previous gap can be filled [23]. Pig - The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas increased. The supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, while the demand for pork is low. The short - term price increase is due to the adjustment of the supply side by farmers, and the increase is limited [24]. - Attention should be paid to whether the 2509 pig - futures contract can break through the upper resistance level of 14000, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation of pigs [24]. Egg - The egg prices in the main production areas increased. The supply pressure has been relieved due to the continuous elimination of old hens, but the demand is still weak due to the difficulty of egg storage in hot and humid weather [25]. - After a short - term rebound, egg prices are still under pressure. The continuous elimination of old hens will support the market to some extent. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [25]. Soybean No. 2 - The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans were provided. The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans, and weather factors will have a greater impact on the market during the critical growth period of US soybeans [26]. - Soybean No. 2 is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [26]. Soybean Meal - The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions were provided. The repeated US tariff policy and global geopolitical turmoil have affected the market. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for prices [27]. - The operating rate and crushing volume of domestic oil mills are at a high level, with a large supply of soybean meal. Downstream demand is strong, and the inventory accumulation of soybean meal is slow [27]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [27]. Soybean Oil - The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions were provided. The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to a rebound in the external market, driving up domestic soybean - oil prices. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas during the critical growth period [29]. - The operating rate and crushing volume of domestic oil mills have returned to a high level, with an expected increase in the supply of soybean meal. The catering industry is in an off - season, and the inventory - accumulation pressure of soybean oil has increased [29]. - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [29]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import - copper ore index decreased. The continued conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East and the complex situation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts have affected market sentiment [30]. - Domestic support policies have boosted market confidence. The raw - material supply of copper is still disturbed, and domestic copper inventory is decreasing. The game between reality and expectation, as well as between the domestic and foreign markets, has intensified [30]. - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and a defensive strategy is recommended for the time being [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - The Shanghai spot price of aluminum increased. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with sufficient supply [31]. - The traditional off - season effect is significant, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. However, the decline in inventory and the rebound of alumina prices have supported aluminum prices [31]. - Aggressive investors can try to go long with a light position, while conservative investors should wait and see [31]. Alumina - The national average price of alumina decreased. The supply side has increased production capacity, with a serious oversupply situation. The demand from electrolytic - aluminum enterprises is mainly rigid, and there is no arbitrage space for imports and exports [32]. - The port inventory of bauxite has increased, and the cost center of alumina has moved down. The alumina 2509 contract is showing a weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The national and East - China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy increased. The tight supply of scrap aluminum has provided cost support, but the industry is facing the pressure of oversupply due to continuous capacity expansion [33]. - The new - energy vehicle industry is performing well, but it will enter the off - season in the second half of the year. The inventory of aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the current inventory - accumulation trend will continue [33]. - The cast - aluminum - alloy 2511 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventory has decreased significantly. The supply side is still operating at a high level, but demand is weak, except for the resilience of power - battery demand [34]. - The current fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Conservative investors are recommended to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [34]. Industrial Silicon - The market prices of different types of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The supply side has continued to resume production, with an increase in output. The demand side maintains on - demand procurement, and the inventory is showing a slight downward trend [35]. - The industrial - silicon 2509 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. Polysilicon - The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The supply side has increased production due to the resumption of production in Sichuan and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand side is weak, with a significant decline in the demand from the photovoltaic industry [36][37]. - The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short when the price is high [37]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils remained unchanged. Technically, the downward trend may turn into a low - level oscillation, and the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cost support has weakened, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak, with poor inventory reduction [38]. - Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [38]. Rebar - The spot price of rebar increased. The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The macro sentiment has improved, raw materials in the industrial chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. The demand is in the off - season, inventory is low, and the valuation is relatively low [39]. - It is recommended to take a light - position, low - buying, and slightly bullish approach in the short term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coils increased. Technically, the downward trend is gradually turning to stabilization. Fundamentally, external talks have progressed smoothly, raw materials in the industrial chain have stabilized, the cost center is dynamically operating, apparent demand has rebounded, inventory is low, and the valuation is relatively low [40]. - It is recommended to take a light - position, low - buying, and slightly bullish approach [40]. Iron Ore - The spot prices of iron ore were provided. The supply side has maintained a high level of shipments, and the demand side has a high production enthusiasm of steel mills, with an increase in molten - iron output. The port