Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have been continuously rebounding recently, but the expected upside is limited. The reasons for the rebound are the escalating Iran situation, the continuous low - level of CPC crude oil exports, and the short - term large - scale buying due to the annual re - balancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index funds. In the future, the impact of commodity index funds will dissipate, and the Iran situation has been controlled in the short term, with no impact on the actual supply chain [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a 2.77% increase. The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel, a 2.51% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.90% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - Venezuela's crude oil production dropped significantly from 1.16 million barrels per day at the end of November 2025 to about 880,000 barrels per day last week. PDVSA has ordered the restart of oil wells to restore production and is preparing for an internal audit and new business and investment after a cyber - attack [1] - Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar have been lobbying the Trump administration not to launch a military strike against Iran. They warned that overthrowing the Iranian regime would disrupt the oil market and harm the US economy [1] - The US government has applied to the court for seizure orders to seize dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade. US military and coast guard have seized five vessels in recent weeks. Although the transportation has resumed under US supervision, the government has filed multiple civil forfeiture lawsuits [1] Investment Logic - The reasons for the recent oil price rebound are the escalating Iran situation, low CPC crude oil exports, and short - term buying from index fund re - balancing. In the future, these factors will weaken, and the actual supply chain remains unaffected [2] Strategy - Short - term oil price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is advisable [3] Risks - Downside risks include the reaching of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events. Upside risks are supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that Venezuela's restoration of oil production will take time, with limited short-term gains expected [1] Group 1: Oil Production and Demand - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that U.S. crude oil production, after reaching a record high last year, is expected to decline this year and next [1] - EIA forecasts that oil demand will remain stable in 2023 [1] Group 2: Price and Inventory Outlook - EIA predicts that oil prices will decrease by 2026 due to global oil production exceeding demand, leading to an increase in oil inventories [1] - Global oil inventories are expected to continue rising in 2027, although the growth rate will slow down [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market continues to rise despite geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, with WTI crude surpassing $60 and Brent crude exceeding $65, driven by concerns over potential military actions and U.S. sanctions [4][6][20] Market Performance - WTI crude oil futures closed at $61.15, up $1.65 (2.77%), while Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.47, up $1.60 (2.51%) [7][21] - The Chinese SC crude oil futures rose by 2.90% to 450.40 yuan [3][21] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has ordered citizens to evacuate Iran, and France has withdrawn non-essential embassy staff, raising fears of military escalation [4][6] - The geopolitical risk premium is more pronounced in the global benchmark (Brent) compared to the Middle Eastern physical market, with Brent's premium over Dubai crude reaching its highest level since July [4][9][18] EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook - The EIA's report indicates that U.S. crude oil production is expected to decline after reaching a record of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, with a slight decrease of less than 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 [6][22] - WTI prices are forecasted to average $52.21 per barrel in 2026 and $50.36 in 2027, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [6][20][22] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - API reported a significant increase in crude oil inventories by 5.278 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a decrease, indicating a supply surplus [6][20] - Global liquid fuel production is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by OPEC+ production growth [22][24] Regional Price Disparities - The price of Dubai crude has weakened while Oman and Murban crude prices have strengthened, indicating widening price differentials within the region [9][23] - Major traders are actively engaging in spot market transactions, with prices concentrated between $61.70 and $61.84 per barrel, reflecting a vibrant trading environment [9][23] Future Considerations - Close monitoring of Iran's floating oil inventory and Venezuela's actual export flows will be crucial for understanding price dynamics between hemispheres [9][24] - The market is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty, with recommendations to manage risk effectively while identifying potential opportunities [6][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate current investment opportunities [2] Core Viewpoints - The main tone of oil prices is a downward trend in the central level dominated by loose supply and demand [4] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil still mainly follows the fluctuations of the crude oil cost side, and the tense geopolitical situation continues to be a key influencing factor [5] - The tight supply of Venezuelan crude oil may affect the raw material supply of domestic refineries, and the market needs to pay close attention to the arrival situation [6] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - In January 2026, the global crude oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure [4] - If the US relaxes sanctions on Venezuela, Venezuelan oil production and exports may increase [4] - Geopolitical risks drive oil prices to rebound, but the short-term upward space of oil prices is expected to be limited [4] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the fluctuations of the crude oil cost side, and the tense geopolitical situation is a key influencing factor [5] - In the high-sulfur market, if there is a supply interruption or trade flow diversion, domestic refineries may increase the use of fuel oil as an alternative raw material for asphalt production [5] - In the low-sulfur market, the supply scale is expected to gradually increase, and the overseas supply recovery brings a loose pressure, making the fundamentals continue to be weak [5] Asphalt - The arrival volume of imported Venezuelan crude oil in January is sufficient, but the supply may be more affected after February [6] - If the supply of Venezuelan crude oil continues to tighten, refineries may turn to higher-priced alternative oil sources [6] - The market needs to closely monitor the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global oil supply increase is leading to market oversupply, which may pressure oil prices downward this year, despite ongoing geopolitical risks causing market volatility [1][3] - The firm maintains its price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil at $56 and $52 per barrel for 2026, respectively, expecting prices to bottom out at $54 and $50 per barrel in Q4 due to rising inventories [1][3] - Brent crude futures are currently around $63 per barrel, while WTI is stable at $59 per barrel, with both benchmarks experiencing nearly a 20% decline in 2025, marking the worst annual performance since 2020 [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that unless there are significant supply disruptions or OPEC implements production cuts, oil prices are expected to decline in 2026 due to a projected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day [3][4] - The firm anticipates a gradual recovery in oil prices by 2027, with Brent and WTI averages forecasted at $58 and $54 per barrel, respectively, down by $5 from previous estimates due to increased supply expectations from major oil-producing countries [4] - Long-term projections suggest that global oil demand will continue to grow until 2040 due to insufficient long-term investments, with significant price increases expected in the late 2030s, reaching averages of $75 and $71 per barrel for Brent and WTI, respectively, between 2030 and 2035 [4]

高盛分析师指出，在中期选举到来之前，美国政策制定者将重点关注强劲的能源供应和相对低廉的油 价，这将抑制油价持续上涨的空间。 高盛分析师在报告中称，预计油价将从2027年开始逐步回升。届时，随着非欧佩克国家供应放缓以及需 求持续稳健增长，市场将重回供应短缺（赤字）状态。 这家投行预计，2027年布伦特和WTI原油的均价将分别为58美元和54美元。这一预测比此前的估计下 调了5美元，原因是该行将美国、委内瑞拉和俄罗斯在2027年的供应量预期分别上调了每日30万桶、40 万桶和50万桶。 高盛表示，由于经历了多年的长周期投资低迷，随着需求一直增长至2040年，预计在本年代后期油价将 出现大幅反弹。该行预测，2030年至2035年期间，布伦特和WTI原油的均价将分别达到75美元和71美 元，但这仍比其此前的预测低了5美元。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 高盛在上周日的一份报告中指出，随着供应大潮导致市场出现过剩，今年油价很可能会震荡下行。不 过，该行也提醒，与俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗相关的地缘政治风险仍将继续加剧市场波动。 这家投行维持了对2026年布伦特原油和WTI原油每桶56美元和52美 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming week will feature significant U.S. economic data releases, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales, which will impact Federal Reserve interest rate decision expectations [1][3] - The U.K. GDP and Germany's GDP growth data will provide guidance for the movements of the British pound and euro [1][4] - The oil market will be influenced by the OPEC monthly oil market report and the EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will guide oil price trends [1][3] Group 2 - On Monday, the Eurozone's January Sentix investor confidence index is expected to remain negative but show slight improvement to -33 [3] - On Tuesday, the U.S. December CPI is anticipated to be 2.7% year-on-year, indicating stability unless there is a significant deviation from expectations [3] - The December PPI is expected to be 2.6%, and November retail sales are projected to grow by 0.4% month-on-month, driven by holiday consumption [3] Group 3 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, focusing on the latest changes in the economy, employment, and inflation [4] - The U.K.'s latest GDP report will be crucial for determining the likelihood of further interest rate cuts in February, with a need for positive growth to support the pound [4] - Germany will also release its GDP growth data for 2025, which will provide guidance for the euro [4] Group 4 - On Friday, Germany's December CPI final value is expected to remain at 2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of zero, indicating a decrease in inflation and reducing the necessity for a shift in ECB policy [6] - The U.S. December industrial production is anticipated to show a moderate growth of 0.2% month-on-month, assessing whether manufacturing output has recovered from stagnation [6]

截至格林尼治标准时间 4 时 12 分，布伦特原油期货合约（交易代码 LCOc1）的交易价格在每桶 63 美 元左右，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货合约（交易代码 CLc1）则稳定在每桶 59 美元。去年，这两大 原油基准价格均创下 2020 年以来的最差年度表现，跌幅近 20%。 高盛分析师指出，美国政策制定者聚焦于保障充足的能源供应与维持相对低油价，这将在中期选举前抑 制油价持续走高的势头。 高盛分析师在报告中称，预计油价将在 2027 年逐步回升。届时，随着非欧佩克产油国供应增速放缓， 且需求保持强劲增长，原油市场将重回供不应求的状态。 来源：环球市场播报 高盛集团在周日发布的一份报告中指出，尽管与俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗相关的地缘政治风险将持续引 发市场波动，但受一波供应增长造成市场过剩的影响，今年油价或将缓步走低。 这家投行维持其对 2026 年布伦特原油 / 西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）的均价预测，即每桶 56 美元 / 52 美元，并预计随着经济合作与发展组织（OECD）原油库存增加，布伦特原油 / WTI 原油价格将在第四 季度跌至每桶 54 美元 / 50 美元的谷底。 高盛表示："全球原油库存 ...

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，随着委内瑞拉局势持续发展，美国正加速推动委内瑞拉石油流入 市场，以缓解油价压力。首要措施似乎是将3,000万至5,000万桶油当量的委内瑞拉石油转移至美国，这 可能导致其他重质原油如加拿大原油转向亚洲市场。部分石油供应可能较快增加，但仍面对其他地缘政 治风险，可能使油价维持在每桶55至65美元区间获得支持。 同时，美国石油库存方面，汽油和柴油库存持续上升，回到较中性水平; 而美国原油库存因炼油厂持续 强劲运转而下降。不过，美国俄克拉荷马州的库欣区的库存则继续上升; 其库存数据是衡量美国原油供 需和油价的重要指标。 ...

原油日报 | 2026-01-09 伊朗骚乱持续升级，市场焦点转向中东 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.77美元，收于每桶57.76美元，涨幅为3.16%；3月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.03美元，收于每桶61.99美元，涨幅为3.39%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.58%，报425元/ 桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 1月8日，美国财政部部长贝森特表示，美国将取消部分针对委内瑞拉实体的制裁。针对未来美国有关对委内 瑞拉"管理"的相关事宜，贝森特表示，其希望稳定委内瑞拉现有的结构。就有关委内瑞拉境内资产问题，贝森特 称，美国财政部将负责监督委内瑞拉的资产出售，并根据美国国务卿鲁比奥的指示将所得款项返还给委内瑞拉。 贝森特还表示，独立石油公司有兴趣尽快投资委内瑞拉，大型石油公司在委内瑞拉的行动可能会更加谨慎。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、 1月8日，随着海湾两大强国之间长期存在的竞争局势日益紧张，沙特阿拉伯正采取行动，旨在终结阿联酋在 也门的角色，并削弱其邻国在红海等其他领域的影力。据两名听取了情况通报的相关人士透露，在命令阿联酋从 也门撤军并轰炸了 ...