（文章来源：新华财经） 美国银行表示，在2026年对油价仍持一定程度的看跌态度，预计布伦特原油在2026年第一季度将低于60 美元/桶，明年平均价格约为60美元，而今年则接近69美元。 ...

特朗普称俄乌和谈进展顺利，国内油价创年内新低 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月15日数据显示，SC主力合约价格小幅回落至 436.5元/桶，较12月12日下跌0.25%，走势呈现温和下行趋势；WTI和Brent 价格维持稳定，分别持平于57.53美元/桶和61.22美元/桶。价差方面，SC- Brent价差走弱至0.69美元/桶（跌幅13.75%），SC-WTI价差走弱至4.38美 元/桶（跌幅2.45%），Brent-WTI价差稳定在3.69美元/桶，SC连续-连3价 差走强至-2.4元/桶（涨幅17.24%），反映近月合约相对走强。 尽管周末期间受到俄乌相互袭击能源设施、委内瑞拉石油出口遇阻等消息 扰动，油价仍未能实现有效反弹，亚洲时段持续横盘整理。国内市场收盘 后，油价再度转跌。市场焦点集中于乌克兰与美国特使就结束冲突进行的 谈判。周一早间，特朗普特使称"取得很大进展"，但会谈仍在继续。此 后美方官员表示，柏林谈判进展"非常积极"，在多项关键议题上已形成 初步共识，正向达成和平协议推进。特朗普亦表示目前比以往更接近达成 "和平协议"。受此影响，油价周二延续跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the crude oil market has replaced geopolitical concerns, leading to a lack of support for oil prices and continuous price declines. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of WTI January contract closed down $0.62 to $56.82 per barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Brent February contract closed down $0.56 to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.92%. SC2601 closed at 430.2 yuan per barrel, down 6.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.58%. In November, the output and processing volume of industrial crude oil above designated size increased year - on - year. Kazakhstan increased oil supply to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the delivery of new mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was advanced. The supply - side pressure led to a continuous decline in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.11% to 2417 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 1.08% to 3005 yuan per ton. The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage arrivals from the Western market in Singapore are expected to decrease in December, the inventory in November increased significantly, and the supply from the Middle East in recent weeks has been substantial. The demand for marine bunkering is relatively stable, and the decline in high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profits may boost the demand of Asian refineries for high - sulfur fuel oil raw materials in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.54% to 2963 yuan per ton. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to concerns about future raw material shortages, making the market relatively firm. Currently, refinery raw materials are relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand for asphalt in China shows significant north - south differentiation. It is expected that asphalt may remain stable in the short term under the weak oil price, but there is also a possibility of price decline [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4696 yuan per ton on Monday, up 1.78%. EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan per ton, up 0.66%. The inventory of MEG in the East China main port area increased by 2.5 tons to about 84.4 tons on December 15. A 260,000 - ton PX device in Japan restarted as planned. The cost - side oil price decline and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand will drag down prices. Some ethylene glycol devices are in a loss state and have stopped for maintenance, but new devices are in the production - preparation stage, increasing supply pressure [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15200 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 30 yuan per ton to 12360 yuan per ton. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the US increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The weather in overseas production areas has improved, and raw material prices have rebounded. It is expected that rubber futures prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2105 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level volatility, and the supply from Iran is expected to decline. The demand from the olefin sector is expected to weaken. Although the inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, there may be a rebound later. It is expected that methanol prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 6170 - 6400 yuan per ton. The production of polyolefins will remain at a high level, while downstream orders and production starts will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term decline space of futures is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply of PVC has decreased in routine maintenance this week but increased in sudden production cuts. The production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic real estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on December 15 and 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that he had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it seems that a "peace agreement" is closer to being reached, which may increase Russia's oil supply in the future. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the production and processing volume data of industrial crude oil above designated size in November and from January to November [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][16][17][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][33][34][37][38][39]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][43][47][50][53][55]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][62][59][69]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other product analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications introduced [71][72][73][74].

原油日报 | 2025-12-16 油价短期震荡偏弱，中期空头配置 风险 投资逻辑 近期关于俄乌和谈出现了积极进展，乌克兰明确表示将承诺不加入北约，但关于领土问题依然没有松口，近期的 油价走势依然是俄乌和谈的投票器，但我们认为圣诞节前达成全面和平协议的可能性依然较低，俄乌局势依然存 在较多不确定性，委内瑞拉方面，在被扣押油轮后多艘油轮掉头，对近期委内原油出口可能产生不利影响，但委 内处于制裁油，对合规油市场的影响有限。 策略 市场关注俄乌和谈前景 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌62美分，收于每桶56.82美元，跌幅为1.08%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌56美分，收于每桶60.56美元，跌幅为0.92%(Bloomberg) 2、欧盟理事会15日发布两份公告，宣布就俄罗斯"影子舰队"相关活动以及俄方"混合威胁"分别采取新一轮制裁措 施。公告称，欧盟当天新增制裁5名个人和4家实体，认为其支持俄罗斯"影子舰队"及其价值链运作。欧盟称，相 关个人与俄罗斯石油公司、俄卢克石油公司存在直接或间接关联。另一份公告中，欧盟理事会新增12名个人和2家 实体至制裁名单 ...

针对OPEC+暂停2026年一季度增产计划的决定，银河期货原油研究员赵若晨认为全球原油库存仍处高 位，仅靠暂停增产计划短期很难改变对供应过剩的预期。在非OPEC+国家(尤其是美国)产量持续高企的 背景下，其通过调节产量来平衡市场的能力和边际效应正在减弱。 与此同时，有关俄罗斯11月原油产量显著低于其OPEC+配额的消息也引发了关注。中信期货研究所高 级研究员何颢昀分析认为，这主要缘于乌克兰针对俄罗斯能源基础设施及"影子船队"的无人机袭击力度 加大，导致其出口一度受挫。然而，12月初相关出口数据已有所反弹，俄油供应目前仍未见到明显减 量。这暗示俄罗斯的产量波动更多是地缘冲突带来的短期扰动和物流挑战，而非长期性的产能萎缩。赵 若晨认为，西方制裁导致买家减少及设施遇袭等因素的影响是短期扰动还是长期趋势尚待观察。俄罗斯 产量的不确定性，为市场提供了一丝紧缩的想象空间，但其可持续性和实际效果存疑。 近日，美国军方在委内瑞拉海岸附近拦截并扣押一艘受制裁油轮。赵若晨认为，这标志着美国对委内瑞 拉的制裁从"书面执行"转变到了"武力执行"的新阶段。这可能会显著增大"影子船队"的运输风险和保险 成本，短期或扰乱委内瑞拉原油出口， ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

Group 1 - The main oil futures contract experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 444.4 yuan, with a current price of 445.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.50% [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures indicates that oil prices will continue to exhibit weak fluctuations, with market attention on India's purchase of Russian oil and a significant drop in refined oil prices affecting the entire energy sector [2] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures states that the overall downward trend in oil prices is unlikely to change, citing a stagnation in the U.S. labor market and a decrease of 9,000 non-farm jobs in November [3] - Wenkang Futures suggests a short-term wait-and-see approach, noting that while geopolitical premiums have dissipated, OPEC's production increases are minimal, and oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices [3]

短多维持 裂差向下 原油月报 2025/12/05 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is under pressure due to the expectation of loose supply, and weak demand dominates the oil price trend. In the short - term, the oil price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, geopolitical risk premiums should be focused on. Currently, the market logic is still dominated by weak demand, but if OPEC+ signals production cuts before the December meeting, the oil price may rebound [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On November 21, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.46% to 446 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent fell 1.5% and 1.5% respectively to $58.76/barrel and $63.08/barrel. The SC - Brent spread widened from $0.6/barrel to $0.92/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened from $4.97/barrel to $5.24/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened slightly to $4.32/barrel [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: As of November 18, the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil increased by 13,497 lots to 178,364 lots, while the net short position of WTI increased by 33,023 lots to 42,487 lots [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply Side**: The number of U.S. oil rigs increased by 2 to 419 this week. The U.S. Interior Department plans to expand drilling in the West Coast and Arctic regions. Venezuela's crude oil upgrading unit stopped operating due to a fire, and Rosneft cut dividends, which increased non - OPEC supply disruptions. India's Reliance Industries stopped processing Russian oil, but Kuwait's export of heavy crude oil to India showed the flexibility of Middle East supply [2]. - **Demand Side**: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2 (expected 50.2), and the weak service industry dragged the composite PMI to remain at 52.5. The U.S. refinery capacity assessment bill was passed, which may support long - term demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: In the week of November 14, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.603 million barrels, previous value increased by 6.413 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.698 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.346 million barrels); EIA gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.945 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventories increased by 0.171 million barrels (previous value decreased by 0.637 million barrels) [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On November 21, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined. The SC - Brent spread increased by 27.16% to $1.03/barrel, the SC - WTI spread decreased by 5.73% to $4.94/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 11.74% to $3.91/barrel. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.80%, and the U.S. refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.67% [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: On November 21, 2025, FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil futures prices all declined. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 7.40% to 576 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 5.53% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: The U.S. oil rig count increased to 419 in the week ending November 21. India's Reliance Industries bought 1 million barrels of heavy crude oil from Kuwait. China's Western Crude Oil Pipeline has transported over 200 million tons of oil. The Trump administration plans to open new areas in the West Coast and Arctic for drilling. Venezuela's crude oil upgrading unit stopped operating due to a fire [7][8]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 18, diesel speculators increased their net long positions. The U.S. House of Representatives passed two energy bills. India's Reliance Industries will stop processing Russian oil [9]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil remained unchanged compared with the previous trading day, and the futures warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil also remained unchanged [10]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI and Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spread statistics, U.S. crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]