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建信期货原油日报-20250903
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 02:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending on the 22nd, the overall decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories supported oil prices to some extent. However, the US travel peak season is coming to an end, and the refinery operating rate has also slightly declined, so there may be insufficient positive factors for oil prices in the later period. This summer, gasoline consumption in the US did not show a significant improvement even with lower prices compared to last year. Overall, this year's peak - season consumption in the US is weak, and the market has digested the expectation of US interest rate cuts to some extent. There is no driving force for oil prices, which are expected to continue to consolidate at the bottom and may decline again in the medium term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil opened at $63.95, closed at $64.61, with a high of $64.88, a low of $63.66, a daily increase of 0.94%, and a trading volume of 5.89 million hands. Brent crude oil opened at $67.42, closed at $68.16, with a high of $68.36, a low of $67.12, a daily increase of 1.01%, and a trading volume of 15.12 million hands. SC crude oil opened at 487 yuan/barrel, closed at 490.4 yuan/barrel, with a high of 492.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 487 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.41%, and a trading volume of 7.98 million hands [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Oil prices are expected to continue to consolidate at the bottom and may decline again in the medium term [6]. 3.2 Industry News - HSBC maintains its forecast of Brent crude oil at $65 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2025. - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to keep production unchanged at the weekend meeting. - Traders said that Russia plans to export 1.098 million tons of petroleum products from the Black Sea port of Tupse in September, compared with 1.068 million tons in August [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [9][11][19][22].
建信期货原油日报-20250902
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 02:05
Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall consumption in the US peak season this year is weak, and the market has digested the US interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. There is no driving force for oil prices, which are expected to continue to consolidate at the bottom and may decline again in the medium term [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $64.26, closing at $64.01, with a high of $64.55, a low of $63.88, a decline of 0.91%, and a trading volume of 164,000 lots. Brent's opening price was $67.59, closing at $67.46, with a high of $67.94, a low of $67.29, a decline of 0.76%, and a trading volume of 263,600 lots. SC's opening price was 487 yuan/barrel, closing at 483.5 yuan/barrel, with a high of 487.2 yuan/barrel, a low of 479.3 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.12%, and a trading volume of 81,100 lots [6] - **Analysis**: As of the week ending on the 22nd, the inventories of US crude oil and refined oil decreased across the board, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the US travel peak season is coming to an end, and the refinery operating rate has also declined slightly. There may be insufficient positive factors for oil prices in the later period. US gasoline consumption has not improved significantly this summer despite lower prices compared to last year [6] 2. Industry News - India's oil procurement has stabilized the market and prevented oil prices from rising to $200 per barrel [7] - As of the week ending on September 1, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries was 2.982 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons or 1.13% compared to the previous week. In the same period last year, the arrival volume was 1.237 million tons, an increase of 18,000 tons or 1.48%. The arrived crude oil was mainly medium - quality crude oil, including 400,000 tons of Russian crude oil and one new shipment of diluted bitumen [7] - On September 1 local time, the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked the "ScarletRay" oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli Defense Forces launched an air strike on Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, on August 28. On August 31, Houthi leader Abdul - Malik al - Houthi said that retaliation would be launched and the scale of military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel would be escalated in the future [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Dtd Brent, and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, EIA, etc. [9][14][19]
原油月评:供给宽松仍在,油价中期承压
Chang An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 12:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In August, the overall price of oil dropped significantly, with supply - side pressure outweighing the market's expectation of long - term macro - economic recovery. In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum, with limited upside potential, while in the medium - to - long term, they remain under pressure [81]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Operation Strategy - Since August, the first - half decline has suppressed oil prices, resulting in a monthly decline. This month, oil prices are likely to remain under supply - side pressure and are unlikely to rebound significantly. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 450 - 520 yuan/barrel and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. A bearish approach is advisable due to limited positive factors [13]. 2. Market Review - In August, supply - side pressure prevented a significant oil price rebound, and prices fluctuated at relatively low levels. Although some losses were recovered in the second half of the month, the recovery was limited despite high expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical instability [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - **Inflation and Core Prices**: Inflation persists, core prices are rising, and the quality of non - farm employment is deteriorating, which may not improve easily [24][27][30]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, the Israel - Hamas conflict in the Middle East may continue, and the negotiation between Iran and European countries has stalled, which may lead to continued problems in Iran's oil exports and support oil prices [34]. 3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: In July, OPEC+ increased production. Saudi Arabia and Russia both raised output, and production may continue to rise in August. Attention should be paid to compensatory production cuts in Iran and Iraq, and Venezuela's exports may be restricted. The US oil production has slightly recovered [37][41][49]. 3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Season**: The peak consumption season is ending. Gasoline production may gradually decrease, while diesel production is picking up. Manufacturing in China and the US remains sluggish, while that in Europe shows a slight recovery. The production of refined oil is shifting from gasoline to diesel [52][55][58]. 3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil**: The US crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 22 and 23, and the decline was in line with market expectations. The inventory may continue to fall in the short term [70]. - **Refined Oil**: The US gasoline inventory decreased, and the refined oil inventory had a large decline in the week ending August 23. Seasonal consumption led to inventory reduction, which may ease in mid - September [73]. 3.5 Spread Factors - In August, the cracking spread of North American gasoline and diesel was relatively stable. Diesel cracking slightly declined in the second half of the month, and gasoline was relatively strong. In the domestic market, as the travel season ends, refineries may shift to diesel production, which may support the cracking performance of fuel oil [77]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - In August, the center of oil prices moved down significantly. In the short term, the downward space of oil prices is limited due to the North American consumption season, but in the medium - to - long term, supply - side pressure will continue. Geopolitical factors will increase price volatility [81].
市场暂无明确驱动,国际油价窄幅波动
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks a clear driving force, and international oil prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, industrial policies, geopolitics, and macro - finance influence the oil market, with the overall investment view being bullish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil production. Overall, there is an upward trend in production, with a bearish impact on the market [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for global crude oil demand, with a neutral impact on the market [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and refined oil inventories showed mixed trends, having a bullish impact on the market [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production, and India's procurement of Russian oil has decreased, with a bearish impact on the market [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short Term)**: Tensions between the US and India, and the situation in Iran have increased market concerns about supply, having a bullish impact on the market [3]. - **Macro - Finance (Short Term)**: EU - US trade policies and court rulings on US tariffs have a positive impact on the market [3]. - **Investment View**: The overall view is bullish, suggesting a long - only strategy for single - sided trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Prices**: SC crude oil decreased by 1.70%, WTI crude oil increased by 0.38%, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.30%. Other refined oil products also showed different price changes [5]. - **Inventory**: US, European, and Singapore oil product inventories, as well as Chinese oil product inventories, showed different trends [5]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of futures warehouse receipts for various oil products increased to varying degrees [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [5]. - **Refinery Operating Rates**: Refinery operating rates in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production decreased slightly [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: International oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. As of August 29, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil had different price changes [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24]. - **Crack Spreads**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined, while jet fuel crack spreads remained stable [28][37]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - OPEC production increased in July, and non - OPEC countries' production also showed an upward trend [47][60]. - US weekly crude oil production was 13.439 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease [72]. - **Inventory** - US commercial inventories decreased, and Cushing inventories decreased [84]. - Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [93]. - **Demand** - In the US, gasoline implied demand increased slightly, and refinery operating rates declined from a high level [110]. - In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [120][129]. - **Macro - Finance**: The US dollar index fluctuated, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [142]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative long positions in WTI crude oil increased [150].
贺博生:9.1黄金原油今日行情涨跌趋势分析及今日独家最新操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 02:13
Group 1: Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that the PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating steady consumer spending but rising inflationary pressures [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an addition of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3%, which could influence interest rate expectations and gold prices [2][5] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a "slow but solid" upward trend, with key support at 3,423 and potential resistance at 3,470-3,480 [4][6] - The technical analysis indicates that gold's upward momentum remains strong, and traders are advised to focus on buying on dips [4][7] - The core PCE inflation data has sparked discussions about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which could impact gold prices in the near term [1][2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen increased volatility, with Brent crude and WTI prices closing at $67.63 and $64.32 per barrel, respectively, influenced by various factors including demand expectations and geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is expected to confirm plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day, which may further affect oil prices [6][7] - Technical analysis suggests that Brent crude faces key support at $60 per barrel, with potential downside risks if this level is breached [6][7]
建信期货原油日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:36
Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that as of the week ending on the 15th, US crude oil and gasoline inventories declined more than expected, causing oil prices to rebound from the bottom [6] - The US is arranging a summit among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Although the meeting between the US and Russian leaders has not achieved substantial progress, Trump said the talks were "very smooth" after the meeting, and the US will not impose further sanctions on Russia for the time being, improving bilateral relations [6] - Fundamentally, as of the week ending on the 8th, US gasoline consumption rebounded. After five consecutive weeks of lower consumption than in 2024, the growth rate barely turned positive. Consumption was still weak despite lower gasoline prices, and this year's peak travel season consumption in the US was lower than expected. The actual performance of refined oil consumption is not optimistic. The peak travel season is coming to an end, and demand support is limited [7] - Oil prices are bottoming out in the short term. Long positions should be flexibly stopped for profit, and prices may decline again under inventory pressure in the medium term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $65.59, closing at $66.53, with a high of $66.54, a low of $65.31, a rise of 1.88%, and a trading volume of 26.37 million lots. Brent's opening price was $61.95, closing at $62.84, with a high of $63.01, a low of $61.83, a rise of 1.73%, and a trading volume of 26.54 million lots. SC's opening price was 483.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 490.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 491.0 yuan/barrel, a low of 483.2 yuan/barrel, a rise of 1.85%, and a trading volume of 11.62 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term bottoming, flexible stop - profit for long positions; medium - term potential decline under inventory pressure [7] 2. Industry News - India will continue to buy Russian oil despite US pressure. The foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow on August 21 [8] - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran has not reached a mature stage for "effective" nuclear negotiations with the US [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with corresponding data sources provided [10][12][20][23]
原油库存骤降驱动短期利多,供需弱化延阻续涨动能
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 08:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Data is generally bullish, driving short - term oil price increases, but weakening supply - demand dynamics limit the rebound space. Brent futures rose 1.60% to above $66 last week, but faced significant pressure from the EMA50 resistance level on the technical side. In the medium term, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, the recovery of the number of US rigs to 412, and the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations will suppress risk appetite. It is expected that WTI will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. An upward breakthrough requires further fermentation of geopolitical risk premiums, and the downside risk comes from India's actual diversion scale exceeding expectations and a sharp drop in refinery loads [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Situation Viewpoints - As of the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels, a 1.41% decline, the largest single - week drop in three months. Cushing inventories increased by 419,000 barrels but remained within the five - year average range. Refinery operating rates unexpectedly rose to 96.6% (expected 95.7%), indicating that refineries are accelerating work to complete tasks before the summer maintenance. Net exports of refined oil products increased to 5.211 million barrels per day, a record high. The increase in exports and processing volume drove continuous inventory reduction, but the counter - seasonal increase in distillate inventories to 116 million barrels (+2.06%) reflects weak diesel demand [2] - US crude oil production jumped by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.3382 million barrels per day, the fastest growth rate in five months. The current supply contradiction lies in the export end: US weekly crude oil exports soared by 795,000 barrels to 4.372 million barrels per day, opening an arbitrage window for Asian buyers. Geopolitical events have strengthened alternative trade flows. The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on India, forcing India to adjust its procurement path. However, the Russian ambassador to India said that Russian oil remains irreplaceable with a 5% discount. Attention should be paid to the flow direction of India's crude oil from August to September. High - load refinery operations are not sustainable, and the equipment maintenance season will start in early September. Current profit compression may suppress restocking efforts [2] Weekly Data Tracking - WTI was at $63 on August 15, unchanged from August 8, with a - 0.33% change rate compared to July 25. US weekly crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels per day, a 0.41% increase. The four - week average of US weekly net crude oil imports remained unchanged at 2.887 million barrels per day. US refinery crude oil processing volume (four - week average) increased by 28,000 barrels per day to 17.208 million barrels per day, a 0.16% increase. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% to 97%. US weekly net exports of refined oil products increased by 31,000 barrels per day to 5.211 million barrels per day, a 0.60% increase. US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) decreased by 6 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.41% decline. US Cushing crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) increased by 1.82% to 23 million barrels. US strategic crude oil inventories remained unchanged at 403 million barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels to 224 million barrels, a 1.20% decline. US distillate inventories increased by 2 million barrels to 116 million barrels, a 2.06% increase. US aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.02% to 43 million barrels. US other oil product inventories (excluding ethanol) decreased by 0.04% to 326 million barrels [5] Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - As of August 15, 2025, the reduction in US commercial crude oil inventories was much larger than expected, indicating a rapid de - stocking process, which is a potentially bullish factor. US crude oil weekly production increased by 55,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since March 2025, which may put pressure on the supply side. The refinery operating rate was higher than expected, indicating strong refining demand, which may explain the decline in inventories. Gasoline inventories declined more than expected, while distillate inventories increased, suggesting weak diesel demand or increased supply [53] - The four - week average of net imports remained unchanged, but single - week imports decreased by 1.218 million barrels, and exports soared to 4.372 million barrels per day, the highest since April, indicating strong export demand and supporting the decline in inventories. The US threat to impose tariffs on India may affect future supply - demand balance. The refinery maintenance season may affect processing volume, and long - term OPEC+ production increases and US production growth may bring pressure. Geopolitical factors and US election policy changes may also affect oil price trends [53][54]
建信期货原油日报-20250821
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:57
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI's opening price was $62.58, closing at $62.00, with a high of $62.68, a low of $61.65, a decline of 1.12%, and a trading volume of 25.75 million lots. Brent opened at $65.98, closed at $65.42, reached a high of $66.01, a low of $65.14, dropped by 0.89%, and had a trading volume of 20.06 million lots. SC's opening price was 482.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 482.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 484.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 479 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.47%, and a trading volume of 11.46 million lots [6]. - **Market Trend**: The US is arranging a summit among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and overnight oil prices continued to fall. Although the meeting between the US and Russian leaders did not yield substantial results, Trump said the talks were "very smooth," and the US will not impose further sanctions on Russia for now. The relationship between the two countries has improved, and oil prices continued their weak performance [6]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week ending on the 8th, US gasoline consumption rebounded. After five consecutive weeks of consumption below the same period in 2024, the growth rate barely turned positive. Consumption was still weak despite lower gasoline prices, and this year's peak - season travel consumption in the US was lower than expected. The actual performance of refined - oil consumption was not optimistic. With the peak travel season coming to an end, demand support was limited [7]. - **Overall Outlook**: This year's peak - season consumption in the US showed no significant improvement, and oil prices were mainly bearish. In the short term, oil prices were bottoming out, and in the medium term, they might decline again under inventory pressure [7]. Group 3: Industry News - Angola plans to cut its oil exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary plans to raise tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [8]. - In July, India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased. Partly because Reliance Industries, the world's largest refinery operator, reduced its purchases by 19% from the previous month's high. Between August and September, Indian state - owned refineries will seek alternative oil sources from the Middle East or the US to replace Russian oil. However, sources said that due to the increased discount of Russian oil, Indian state - owned refineries have placed orders for Russian oil. The Russian embassy in India said the discount for Russian oil to India is about 5%, and Russian oil is highly competitive with no current substitutes. India's oil imports will remain at a similar level [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Brent, and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources including Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [10][12][20][23]
原油、燃料油日报:美俄会谈后制裁预期松动,潜在供应压力增大-20250819
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 12:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the short term, crude oil is likely to continue its weak and volatile pattern. Supply-side negative factors dominate, with stable Russian oil exports and the expectation of sanctions loosening alleviating the risk of supply disruptions, and limited growth in US shale oil failing to reverse the oversupply expectation. Although there is seasonal support on the demand side, the downward pressure on the global economy restricts the upside space. Overall, oil prices may fluctuate at low levels in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 18, the SC crude oil main contract slightly declined to 486.5 yuan/barrel (down 0.33% from the 15th), while WTI and Brent prices remained flat at 62.29 and 66.13 US dollars/barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread narrowed by 0.19 US dollars to 1.64 US dollars/barrel (a decline of 10.38%), and the SC-WTI spread also narrowed by 0.19 US dollars to 5.48 US dollars/barrel (a decline of 3.35%), indicating increased discount pressure of domestic SC prices relative to the external market. The SC inter - term spread (continuous - consecutive 3) dropped to 2.2 yuan/barrel (a decline of 18.52%), showing liquidity pressure on near - month contracts [2]. - **Supply - side**: The Indian Oil Corporation continued to purchase Russian crude oil (the proportion rose to 24%), and the discount on Russian oil narrowed to 1.5 US dollars/barrel, indicating the resilience of Russian oil exports. After the US - Russia meeting, the expectation of further sanctions on Russia decreased, and the channel for Russian oil to flow into Asia may become more stable [3]. - **Demand - side**: The US summer travel season supported gasoline demand, but the prospect of an oil market surplus suppressed market sentiment. Indian refineries maintained a high processing rate of Russian oil, indicating stable local demand, but weak global manufacturing and slow economic growth may limit the growth elasticity of demand [4]. - **Inventory - side**: The domestic medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained at 4.767 million barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,970 tons to 11,110 tons, indicating accelerated destocking of refined oil products, possibly driven by refinery restocking or exports [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC decreased by 0.33%, WTI increased by 0.47%, and Brent increased by 0.50%. Among spot prices, most showed a downward trend. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3 all narrowed. Other assets like the US dollar index increased by 0.30%, while the S&P 500 and DAX index decreased slightly. US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, US strategic reserve inventory, and API inventory all increased. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 0.52%, while the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 0.33% [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all increased, while most spot prices showed a downward trend. Paper - cargo prices of high - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore decreased slightly. Some spreads such as the China high - low sulfur spread and LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) increased. Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On August 18, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked the Nikolskoye oil pumping station in Russia, causing it to stop pumping oil to the "Friendship" oil pipeline. The Hungarian Oil Company MOL stated that technical restoration work was in progress, and crude oil supply would resume later [10][12]. - **Demand**: On August 18, an executive of the Indian Oil Corporation said that they would continue to purchase Russian oil based on economic conditions and processed 24% of Russian crude oil in the June quarter [13]. - **Inventory**: The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,767,000 barrels, the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,970 tons to 11,110 tons, and the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 80,710 tons [14]. - **Market Information**: On August 18, Yitai B - shares clarified that there were no plans for oil import and export as mentioned in some false information. An executive of the Indian Oil Corporation said that the discount on Russian oil was about 1.5 US dollars per barrel. After the US - Russia meeting, the expectation of strengthened sanctions on Russia was temporarily put on hold, and the oil market was expected to continue to fluctuate [14]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides various data charts related to the oil industry, including WTI, Brent prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, oil rig numbers, refinery operating rates, crude oil processing volumes, inventories, and fuel oil prices and spreads [15][17][19]
建信期货原油日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:03
Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI main contract opened at $62.38, closed at $62.04, with a high of $62.59, a low of $61.29, a decline of 0.7%, and a trading volume of 1.924 billion barrels [6] - Brent main contract opened at $66.14, closed at $65.74, with a high of $66.33, a low of $65.01, a decline of 0.57%, and a trading volume of 3.101 billion barrels [6] - SC main contract opened at 490.2 yuan/barrel, closed at 481.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 490.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 480 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.75%, and a trading volume of 777 million barrels [6] - EIA data showed that as of the week ending August 8, US crude oil inventories increased significantly, and the IEA monthly report raised the global supply forecast, causing overnight oil prices to continue to decline [6] - US and Russian leaders are about to have direct talks. The US hopes to achieve a cease - fire in Russia and Ukraine through sanctions. Sanctions on Russian oil may have a short - term impact [7] - As of the week ending August 1, US gasoline demand was below the 5 - year average. Gasoline consumption in the peak season did not pick up significantly, and oil consumption growth was barely positive after 5 consecutive weeks below the 2024 level. US peak - season travel consumption was lower than expected [7] - Overall, US peak - season consumption this year has not improved significantly, and oil prices are mainly bearish. If the US imposes secondary tariffs on Russian oil, it may be an opportunity to enter short positions [7] Group 3: Industry News - Russia announced a production cut of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels per day in December [8] - In July, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month [8] - CPC's oil exports in July increased by 3% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, Dtd Brent price, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources including Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [11][13][19]