Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: July 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental drivers. OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations, but the incremental supply is limited. The demand side still has support, and with geopolitical changes, oil prices are expected to rise in the third quarter. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI: Open at $67.35, close at $65.65, high at $68.16, low at $65.64, down 2.07%, with a trading volume of 21.05 million lots [6] - Brent: Open at $70.5, close at $69.14, high at $71.53, low at $69.02, down 1.73%, with a trading volume of 36.28 million lots [6] - SC: Open at 530 yuan/barrel, close at 518.2 yuan/barrel, high at 530.2 yuan/barrel, low at 516.7 yuan/barrel, down 0.92%, with a trading volume of 12.42 million lots [6] - Trump threatened to impose a 100% secondary tariff on countries buying Russian oil, which was lower than market expectations, leading to an overnight decline in oil prices [6] - OPEC+ decided to further increase production from August, from the previous 410,000 barrels per day to 550,000 barrels per day. The actual incremental supply is relatively limited, and the implementation remains to be seen. In the first month of OPEC's increased production, the output of 8 member countries only increased by 150,000 barrels per day month-on-month [7] - Although the three major institutions have raised their demand forecasts for the second half of the year, due to the supply growth potential in countries such as Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited. The inventory pressure in the fourth quarter will be greater than that in the third quarter [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel, and raised its forecast for WTI crude oil prices in the second half of 2025 to $63 per barrel, previously $57 per barrel. It maintains the forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively by 2026 [8] - According to data and Reuters calculations, Russia's seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% month-on-month in June [8] - Trump pressured Russia to promote a ceasefire, and US officials said that secondary sanctions would target buyers of Russian oil [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures include global high-frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund positions, Brent fund net positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [10][12][18]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years and is considering pausing production increases starting in October, indicating a cautious approach [1] - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with WTI crude oil signaling a potential sell-off [1] Group 2 - The sentiment in the oil market is currently uncertain, with market participants advised to monitor developments closely [1]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates decreased to 81% (-2.8%), while Asian PX operating rates increased to 74.1% (+1.1%) [2] - PTA operating rates rose to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] Price Trends - On July 9, Asian PX prices increased by $3/ton to $850/ton, equivalent to RMB 7009/ton [1] - The current spot market for PX is under pressure due to limited downstream polyester consumption and insufficient supply-side support [1] Market Outlook - PX supply-demand expectations remain tight due to new PTA production forecasts, while oil prices are expected to trend strong in the short term [4] - Strategies suggest a short-term long position for PX around 6600 [4]

原油日报 | 2025-07-09 印度将增加美国LPG进口 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨40美分，收于每桶68.33美元，涨幅为0.59%；9月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨57美分，收于每桶70.15美元，涨幅为0.82%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.26%，报516元/桶。 2、联合组织数据倡议（JODI）最新公布的数据显示，沙特阿拉伯4月份的原油出口量较3月份大幅增长41.2万桶/ 日。与此同时，沙特4月份的原油产量也较3月的896万桶/日增加了约4.8万桶/日。这一产量增长的背后，是OPEC+ 逐步取消总计220万桶/日的石油减产计划。自4月份以来，沙特阿拉伯一直在稳步提高原油产量。自今年初开始逐 步放松减产措施以来，OPEC+的主要产油国沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔 及利亚和阿曼在4月份产量小幅增加了13.8万桶/日，并计划在5月、6月和7月分别大幅提高产量配额41.1万桶/日。 在本周末的会议上，OPEC+集团宣布将在8月份增产54.8万桶/日，这一决定超出了市场预期，令市场感到意外。(来 源：Bloomberg） 3、EI ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ members decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day [1] - As of August, OPEC+ will have cumulatively increased production to 1.918 million barrels per day since April, leaving only 280,000 barrels per day to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction agreement [1] - UAE will be allowed to increase production by an additional 300,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - This marks the fourth consecutive month of increased oil supply from OPEC+, indicating a strategic shift from "production cuts to maintain prices" to "market share competition," which will intensify downward pressure on international oil prices in the second half of the year [2] - WTI crude oil futures experienced significant volatility in June, with a 21.80% increase from June 1 to June 20, followed by a sharp decline of 8.95% on June 23, leading to a 9.41% decrease in oil prices for the first half of the year [2] - As of July 8, WTI crude oil futures were priced at $67.55 per barrel, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 6% [2] Group 3 - The overall trend for international oil prices in the second half of the year is expected to be downward due to OPEC+'s continuous production increases and potential recovery pressures on global economic growth [3] - If OPEC+ proceeds with planned production increases in September, the risk of oversupply will heighten, especially if demand does not show significant growth [3] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies may further suppress oil demand, contributing to a greater likelihood of price declines in the second half of the year [3]

智通财经7月8日电，德商银行称，由于秋季出现的供应过剩，预计布伦特原油价格将下跌至每桶65美 元；预计明年油价将小幅回升至70美元。 德商银行：预计布伦特原油价格将下跌至每桶65美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, but the immediate impact on oil prices in Q3 is expected to be limited [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decision - OPEC+ has made a decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day for August, which is higher than market forecasts [1] - Some oil-producing countries are currently producing above their target levels, and there are constraints from production compensation plans, leading to actual monthly increases being less than the targeted adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - The Asian market has shown a subdued response to the OPEC+ production increase, with expectations that the demand for gasoline and jet fuel will support the increase during the peak demand season in Q3 [1] - After the peak season, if the U.S. continues its tariff policies, a return to OPEC+ production levels could negatively impact the fundamentals, potentially leading to a downward shift in oil prices [1] Group 3: Fuel Types and Demand Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil (FU) is experiencing weak performance due to low demand from shipping and deep processing, with a lack of support from summer power generation needs in the Middle East and North Africa [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) has limited supply pressure due to strong coking profits, but overall demand remains weak, leading to fluctuating prices [1] Group 4: Refinery and Inventory Insights - As of now, the shipment volume from 54 sample refineries has slightly decreased, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 8% to 7% [1] - Refinery inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, while social inventories remain stable compared to the previous week [1] Group 5: LPG Market and Chemical Demand - The international LPG supply is overall loose, and with OPEC's further production increase expected in August, overseas prices may come under pressure [1] - Recent maintenance has led to a decline in chemical demand, but lower import costs are helping to restore PDH margins, with attention on the rebound pace of PDH operating rates [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - trend, with a driving force for a downward trend, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase by OPEC+ has limited impact on oil prices in Q3. After the Q3 peak season, if the US equivalent tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Other energy products have their own supply - demand characteristics and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The actual monthly production increase of OPEC+ is less than the target increase. In Q3, the increase can be well absorbed by demand. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Short - term view is that the bottom of oil prices will rise in Q3 [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil opening weak drove fuel - related futures down. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its price and cracking spread are weakening. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the coking profit and diesel cracking strength, but demand lacks a clear driver, with short - term cracking spread expected to be slightly stronger [2] Asphalt - With the decline of oil prices, asphalt prices also dropped. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase dropped from 8% to 7%. Demand recovery is delayed, refinery inventory increased by 15,000 tons, and social inventory remained flat. The short - term trend is to fluctuate [3] LPG - The international market supply is loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure. Last week's new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH profit margins. In summer, supply pressure increases, and the market trend is weak [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent and WTI may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel this year [5][6]. - In the first half of the third quarter, the market is bullish, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. In the long - term, the market is bearish because of the large - scale production increase from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., leading to a high probability of inventory accumulation [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips and conduct band trading in the short - term, and to short on rallies in the long - term. Close out and take profits on long - short spreads, and avoid reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - The long - end U.S. Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [11]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds [17]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [19]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations. For example, Iraq's Basrah crude export to Europe weakens, the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation, Saudi may use more heavy crude for domestic power generation, and Russia's ESPO Blend export decreases in June but is expected to rebound in July [7]. - The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that the business activity index turns negative. U.S. oil and gas executives are pessimistic about production prospects due to Trump's tariff policies and trade wars. Although U.S. crude production increased by 1.8 million barrels per day in April, WTI export profitability has deteriorated [8]. - Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran have different supply situations. Venezuela's production is expected to decline, and Iran's export is affected by sanctions, but there are signs of possible sanction relief [8]. - The IEA predicts a global crude oil supply surplus in the second half of 2025, and global visible inventories have been accumulating in the past three months [8]. 3. Demand - The seasonal peak demand continues. In Asia, China's crude oil processing volume increases, and some countries like Japan, South Korea, and India increase their U.S. crude oil imports. In Europe, refineries are cautious due to conflicts, and freight increases have raised costs [9]. 4. Inventory - U.S. commercial inventory rebounds, while Cushing inventory declines and is significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are strongly volatile, European crude inventory rebounds while diesel and gasoline inventories decline, and domestic refined oil margins are recovering [61][70][75]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC underperforms foreign markets with a declining monthly spread, and the net long position increases [79][80][83].