Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting, which could put pressure on oil prices if the increase exceeds expectations. The market is also affected by factors such as Russian oil exports and US inventory data [1] - For fuel oil, the reduction of arbitrage cargo inflows from the West and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may provide some support, but overall demand lacks significant highlights [2] - In the asphalt market, the increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but the rise may be limited by increased supply in some areas. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease [2] - Polyester products are affected by factors such as high PX supply, increased TA maintenance, and under - expected seasonal improvement in terminal demand, with prices expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - The rubber market is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and favorable heavy - truck sales data, but is also affected by产区 weather and demand conditions, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area in September due to limited supply growth and expected demand recovery [5] - Polyolefins are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations in September as the supply and demand are both strong and the cost - side is stable [5] - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September due to weak real - estate construction demand and expected export decline, but there is a risk of policy - driven speculation [6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. WTI October contract closed at $63.97/barrel, down $1.62 or - 2.47%. Brent November contract closed at $67.60/barrel, down $1.54 or - 2.23%. SC2510 closed at 483.6 yuan/barrel, down 8.2 yuan or - 1.67%. OPEC+ may consider further increasing production. Russian oil exports in August slightly increased, and US inventory data showed a rise in crude and distillate stocks and a decline in gasoline stocks. The market is waiting for the OPEC+ production decision, and an unexpected increase in production could pressure oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 closed down 0.04% at 2840 yuan/ton, and LU2511 closed down 0.85% at 3512 yuan/ton. The reduction of Western arbitrage cargo inflows and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support the market, but overall demand lacks highlights. US sanctions on Iranian trade may affect high - sulfur fuel oil delivery [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 closed down 0.36% at 3550 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46% week - on - week; the refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50% week - on - week; and the refinery operating rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% week - on - week. The increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but supply increases in some areas may limit the rise [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4732 yuan/ton, down 0.5%; EG2601 closed at 4331 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. PX supply is high, TA maintenance is increasing, and terminal demand improvement is under - expected. The prices of polyester products are expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 rose 15 yuan/ton to 15885 yuan/ton, NR rose 5 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton, and BR rose 65 yuan/ton to 11885 yuan/ton. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The market is affected by factors such as weather, demand, and inventory, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are given. Due to profit recovery, MTO device may resume production, and demand is expected to recover in September. Supply growth is limited, and prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profit margins of polyolefins are provided. In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventory is transferring from society to downstream. Prices are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices in different regions are presented. The real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports are expected to decline due to anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share. An additional increase would mean starting to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule [11] - Russian oil exports by sea slightly increased in August. However, exports to India decreased by 21% month - on - month to 1.3 million barrels per day. The US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian products exported to the US in August [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for different products are shown, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [25][27][31] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The charts of spreads between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are provided [39][41][44] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The charts of spreads and ratios between different products are presented, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [56][58][62] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are shown [64][65][67] Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director and energy and chemical director, Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, etc., Di Yilin, a rubber/polyester analyst, and Peng Haibo, a methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst [70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, and provides short - term price trend views for each product, mostly indicating an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices declined. WTI October contract closed down $1.55 to $63.25 per barrel, a 2.39% drop; Brent October contract closed down $1.58 to $67.22 per barrel, a 2.3% drop; SC2510 closed at 486.8 yuan per barrel, down 10.9 yuan or 2.19%. Due to the US tariff increase on Indian goods, Indian refineries are expected to reduce Russian oil purchases. In October, India's Russian oil imports will be 400,000 barrels per day lower than the Q1 average, a 22% decrease. API data showed a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Domestic refined oil retail prices were lowered. The current oil price is oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE declined. Affected by US sanctions on Iran and low valuations, FU rose strongly this week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened due to concerns about abundant arbitrage cargo supply and weak demand. High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure will persist. Currently, FU is highly volatile and is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Asphalt**: In August, asphalt demand was lower than expected due to capital recovery and rainy weather. In September, demand is expected to increase in both northern and southern markets. Refineries with crude oil quotas have good profit margins, and production is expected to be stable. With a slight rebound in oil prices, the absolute price of BU has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed up 0.16% at 4870 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.42% at 4490 yuan per ton. PX futures rose 0.34%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Demand improvement and supply contraction bring positive support, and PX and TA still have room for growth. High ethylene glycol operating load and low port inventory are favorable for its price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed mixed trends. Thailand's natural rubber exports in July increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The 13th typhoon affected production areas, and raw material prices were firm. Tire exports increased, providing demand support. The fundamentals are strong, and short - term rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. There are maintenance plans for butadiene rubber plants in September and October, and butadiene prices are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic plant maintenance has led to a short - term low in supply, which will gradually recover. Iranian plants have high operating loads, and short - term arrivals will remain high but may decrease in the long term. The MTO plant load in East China is not high, and port inventories will increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The production profit margins of various polyolefin production methods vary. Supply will remain high, and downstream demand is currently low but is expected to improve with the approaching peak season. Overall, polyolefins are moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand, and prices will oscillate narrowly [6][7]. - **PVC**: The PVC market prices in different regions showed different trends on Tuesday. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing, and demand for pipes and profiles is expected to increase. Supply remains high, exports will weaken due to Indian anti - dumping policies. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of multiple energy and chemical products on August 27, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US plans to double the tariff on Indian goods to 50% from Wednesday, which is expected to reduce India's recent purchases of Russian oil. In October, India's Russian oil imports will be 400,000 barrels per day lower than the Q1 average [10]. - API data shows that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories declined last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][21]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [25][27][31][33][36][37]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - **Inter - product Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [57][61][59][63]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [65][67]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [70]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, has won multiple industry awards [71]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, has won industry - related honors [72]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical spot - futures trading [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as unexpected increases in US crude and fuel inventories, changes in Chinese crude processing, and Iraqi oil production, and will continue to oscillate [1] - Fuel oil prices are influenced by import - export volumes, supply - demand relationships of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, and cost - end crude oil fluctuations. The LU - FU price difference has shown an inflection point, and the strategy of narrowing the spread can be continued [2] - Asphalt prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity utilization, and demand. It may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [2][4] - Polyester product prices are affected by factors such as device maintenance, production load adjustment, and PX supply. In the short term, both PTA and ethylene glycol will be treated with an oscillating mindset [4] - Rubber prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, anti - dumping investigations, and raw material prices, and will oscillate in the short term [6] - Methanol prices are affected by domestic and overseas supply, MTO device operation, and inventory levels, and price volatility may increase [6][8] - Polyolefin prices are affected by supply (upstream maintenance) and demand (tariff reduction), and will maintain an oscillating trend [8] - PVC prices are affected by supply (device maintenance and resumption) and demand (real - estate construction), and are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Wednesday, WTI new July contract closed down $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel (down 0.74%), Brent July contract closed down $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel (down 0.72%), and SC2507 closed at 463.1 yuan per barrel, down 5.1 yuan per barrel (down 1.09%) [1] - EIA data showed that last week, US commercial crude inventories increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443.16 million barrels, contrary to the market expectation of a 1.3 - million - barrel decrease. Cushing crude inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels to 23.44 million barrels. US net crude imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.58 million barrels per day, reaching a six - week high. SPR inventories increased by 743,000 barrels to 400.493 million barrels [1] - In April, China's industrial crude processing slowed down, with processed crude oil of 58.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. From January to April, processed crude oil was 240.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [1] - In 2025, Iraq's crude oil production was 3.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day compared to 2024, and exports were about 3.7 million barrels per day, a decrease of 110,000 barrels per day compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Fuel Oil - On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.29% to 3,074 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 rose 0.25% to 3,571 yuan per ton [2] - In April 2025, China imported 1.8274 million tons of fuel oil, a month - on - month increase of 32.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.87%; exported 1.7725 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56% [2] - In May, the arrival of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes decreased. Before June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight, and the demand is also satisfactory. For high - sulfur fuel oil, with the increase in summer power - generation demand and the strong performance of the downstream bunker market, inventories are gradually being digested [2] Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.06% to 3,537 yuan per ton [2] - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, this week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.64%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.80%, an increase of 0.07% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 32.5%, a decrease of 3.34% from last week [2] - From the perspective of June's refinery production schedule, with profit recovery, supply may further increase. However, next week, some refineries' production conversion and shutdown may temporarily lead to a decline in the operating rate. In terms of demand, the concentrated delivery of refinery orders and the start of northern terminal projects support the rigid demand to some extent, but the demand in the southern region is average, and with the upcoming rainy season, the terminal demand will be further suppressed [2] Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,788 yuan per ton yesterday, up 1.18%; the spot offer was at a premium of 125 yuan per ton over the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,414 yuan per ton, up 0.02%, with the basis decreasing by 1 yuan per ton to 88 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,508 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,766 yuan per ton, up 1.47%. The spot negotiation price was $836 per ton, equivalent to 6,932 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 30 yuan per ton to 196 yuan per ton [4] - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales estimate of about 40%. A 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance today, expected to last about 2 weeks. A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has recently switched from EG to EO production, and the current ethylene glycol production load has dropped to 30% - 40%, with a preliminary plan to start full - epoxy production in July. A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi ended maintenance yesterday, and the current load is around 50%. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products tomorrow [4] Rubber - On Wednesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 120 yuan per ton to 14,820 yuan per ton, the NR main contract closed down 200 yuan per ton to 12,715 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract closed down 170 yuan per ton to 11,900 yuan per ton [6] - As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons (0.96%) from the previous week. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous week, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week [6] - On May 21, 2025, the European Commission officially launched an anti - dumping investigation into new passenger cars and light - truck pneumatic rubber tires imported from China. At the beginning of the domestic and overseas rubber - tapping season, the production is low, and heavy rainfall in overseas production areas has disrupted tapping, providing support for raw material prices. Rubber imports have increased year - on - year, and inventories in Qingdao have slightly decreased [6] Methanol - On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,320 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,037.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $256 - 260 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $330 - 335 per ton. Downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,115 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,530 - 2,580 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 4,985 yuan per ton [6] - Due to an increase in domestic plant maintenance, methanol supply has decreased but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas, the operating load of Iranian plants has dropped to about 70%, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is still recovering. Overall, the operation of MTO plants has changed little, the port inventory level is low, and the inland inventory level is also not high. Future attention should be paid to the restart plan of MTO plants and changes in Iranian plants, and methanol price volatility may increase [6][8] Polyolefins - On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7,150 - 7,350 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 44.83 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of coal - based PP was 1,110.33 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of methanol - based PP was - 564 yuan per ton, the production gross profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP was - 746.74 yuan per ton, and the production gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP was - 132.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the mainstream price of HDPE was 8,040 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 9,269 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,549 yuan per ton. The market gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was 76 yuan per ton, and the market gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,483 yuan per ton [8] - Currently, there is a lot of upstream maintenance, so the overall supply pressure is not high. In terms of demand, with the tariff reduction, downstream enterprises have increased their procurement of raw materials, and inventories have started to decline. In the short term, the fundamental pressure has been released, and the valuation of polyolefins has recovered. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, so there is still pressure on the upside of polyolefin valuation, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8] PVC - On Wednesday, the price of the PVC market in East China oscillated and adjusted. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC was 4,750 - 4,880 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based PVC was about 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, individual products were adjusted, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC being about 4,680 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based PVC being 5,150 - 5,200 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, the price changed little, with the mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 PVC being about 4,880 - 4,940 yuan per ton and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based PVC being 5,000 - 5,150 yuan per ton [8] - Maintenance plants will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the construction of domestic real - estate projects has temporarily stabilized, maintaining the operating rates of pipes and profiles at a relatively stable level. However, as real - estate construction gradually enters the off - season, demand will gradually weaken. Overall, in the short term, due to maintenance disruptions, the fundamental pressure has been released, but as plants gradually resume production, PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 22, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10] 3.3 Market News - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that last week, US crude inventories increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of the week ending May 16, US crude inventories increased by 2.499 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.401 million barrels [13] - Trade and shipping data showed that with the increase in production, Russia's seaborne fuel - oil and vacuum - gasoil exports in April increased by 8.5% from the previous month to about 4 million tons. Russia's offline primary refining capacity last month was 2.91 million tons, a 21% decrease from March, leading to an increase in fuel supply [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report presents various charts, including the closing prices of main contracts, basis of main contracts, spreads of inter - period contracts, spreads of inter - variety contracts, and production profits, to visually display the price trends and relationships of different energy - chemical products [14][30][44][60][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude - oil, natural - gas, fuel - oil, asphalt, and shipping analyst Du Bingqin, the natural - rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [75] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices declined slightly. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week. Saudi Arabia's production increased in April, but the decline in production from some OPEC countries offset the growth. Russia is considering extending gasoline export restrictions. Oil prices are under pressure and oscillating after a continuous rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures rose. In May, the volume of low - sulfur arbitrage cargo shipped from the European market to Singapore is expected to decrease, while the inventory in Singapore is increasing due to more low - sulfur fuel oil blending components from the Middle East and South America. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strongly supported by the increase in summer power generation demand. The absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, asphalt futures rose. This week, the total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt increased, the social inventory decreased, and the total operating rate of asphalt plants increased. Supply is expected to continue to increase, and market demand will increase slightly in the north but be affected by rainfall in the south. The absolute price of BU may remain stable, but the upside space is limited [3]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, polyester futures rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation. Crude oil prices strengthened, PTA device maintenance continued, and downstream inventory and operation rates were high. PTA futures may oscillate strongly, and the supply of ethylene glycol tightened in the short term, leading to a stronger price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures rose. As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased slightly. The shortage of butadiene and the strengthening of crude oil prices led to an obvious rebound in butadiene rubber prices. The performance of natural rubber was relatively weak, and the Sino - US joint statement had limited impact on rubber prices [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices showed certain fluctuations. The domestic methanol supply is at a high level due to good producer profits, while the Iranian device load has declined, and the arrival volume is lower than expected. The MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and the operation of traditional downstream industries is relatively stable. Methanol prices will recover, but there is still pressure on the upside [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices showed certain trends. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure is being relieved. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made important progress, and there may be an intention to rush for exports in the short term, so polyolefin prices will recover [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation has made significant progress, the upside space for PVC is expected to be limited [8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI June contract closed down $0.52 to $63.15 per barrel, a decline of 0.82%. Brent July contract closed down $0.54 to $66.09 per barrel, a decline of 0.81%. SC2506 closed at 484.6 yuan per barrel, down 2.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.59%. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ending May 9 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the SHFE, FU2507, rose 1.12% to 3057 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2507, rose 3.08% to 3647 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur arbitrage cargo volume from Europe to Singapore is expected to decrease in May, but the inventory in Singapore is increasing [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE, BU2506, rose 1.24% to 3521 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.50%, up 1.12% from last week; the social inventory rate was 35.32%, down 0.41% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 35.73%, up 3.62% from last week [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4874 yuan per ton, up 2.61%; EG2509 closed at 4506 yuan per ton, up 3.61%. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, rose 240 yuan per ton to 15235 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber, NR, rose 180 yuan per ton to 13035 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 175 yuan per ton to 12380 yuan per ton [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2505 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2137.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between 258 - 262 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between 337 - 342 US dollars per ton [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 7200 - 7350 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 87.11 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 1096.2 yuan per ton [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the market price of PVC in East China, North China, and South China increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on May 14 and May 13, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the crude oil production of all OPEC + member countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared with March. Although eight OPEC + oil - producing countries vowed to start relaxing production cuts, the actual increase in supply was less than expected [11]. - The EIA data showed that as of the week ending May 9, the inventory of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 28, 2022 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][65][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow and PP production profit [69]