油脂日报 | 2025-12-10 USDA报告发布，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8648.00元/吨，环比变化-58元，幅度-0.67%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7984.00 元/吨，环比变化-246.00元，幅度-2.99%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9393.00元/吨，环比变化-109.00元，幅度-1.15%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8580.00元/吨，环比变化-90.00元，幅度-1.04%，现货基差P05-68.00，环比变化 -32.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.60%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化+196.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9640.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.13%，现货基差 OI05+247.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，尽管下行风险有限且估值不高，但由于缺乏强劲的上行催化剂，研究机构Kenanga Research对种植业板块维持"中性"看法。该研究机构在一份报告中指出，今年的食用油供应紧张状况很可 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-08投资咨询部 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8394，基差128，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 yuan, supported by the cost of imported soybeans but with limited upside due to high inventory [8]. - For rapeseed oil, there is no new policy change. The far - month basis is weak, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. Since Australian rapeseed will arrive in December with a relatively small overall import volume, a long position can be taken on a single contract [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Bad weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, along with lower - than - expected production growth in November and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December, may support the market in the short term. However, inventory in the producing areas is likely to continue to accumulate in November, so it should be regarded as range - bound with a resistance level around 9,000 yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: In December, it is OI2601 + 280; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 260. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From December to January, it is OI2601 + 360. - East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: Spot is Y2501 + 260; from December to January, it is Y2601 + 270; from January to March, it is 05 + 430; from March to May, it is 05 + 350; from April to May, it is 05 + 310; from May to July, it is 05 + 230; from February to May, it is 05 + 370. - Palm oil quotes from Dongguan traders are stable with a downward trend. For example, Guangzhou Yihai's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 80; Dongguan COFCO's 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 70; 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 30; Guangdong's national standard 24 - degree palm oil is 01 + 10; 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 - 200; 33 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories is 01 + 20 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread for rapeseed oil and consider long positions for single contracts, and expect range - bound trading for soybean oil and palm oil [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 779,392 tons, a 39.2% decrease from October. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an 89,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [9]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a 6,000 - ton decrease from October [9]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, and some spread data and exchange rate data [13][14][21]

油脂日报 | 2025-12-04 豆油去库不及预期，盘面持续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8730.00元/吨，环比变化+10元，幅度+0.11%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8286.00 元/吨，环比变化-2.00元，幅度-0.02%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9711.00元/吨，环比变化-34.00元，幅度-0.35%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8740.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.92%，现货基差P01+10.00，环比变化 +70.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8460.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y01+174.00， 环比变化+22.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9970.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.60%，现货基差 OI01+259.00，环比变化-26.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：农业农村部近日在全国范围内部署开展冬季农作物种子监督检查，并派出工作组赴重点地区 进行督促指导。本次检查聚焦玉米、水稻、大豆、棉花、蔬菜等重点作物以及国家救灾备荒储备种子，重点核查 种子企业生产经营资质 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Researcher Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to trade in a narrow range between 8,000 and 8,400, supported by the cost of imported soybeans, but the upside is limited due to high inventory [8]. - Rapeseed oil is policy - driven, with no new fundamental changes, and the market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. The 1 - 5 inverse spread of rapeseed oil should be held, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress of Australian seeds and the regulatory policies of rapeseed oil reserves [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Adverse weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, lower - than - expected production growth in November, and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December may improve exports, providing short - term bullish support. It is expected to trade in a range with resistance around 9,000 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605 opened at 8,688, closed at 8,688 with a gain of 56 (0.65%), trading volume of 121,026, and open interest of 24,666 with an increase of 2,411 [7]. - P2601 opened at 8,638, closed at 8,652 with a gain of 64 (0.75%), trading volume of 367,522, and open interest of 312,424 with a decrease of 18,937 [7]. - Y2605 opened at 8,020, closed at 8,086 with a gain of 64 (0.80%), trading volume of 135,151, and open interest of 447,922 with an increase of 31,341 [7]. - Y2601 opened at 8,238, closed at 8,288 with a gain of 50 (0.61%), trading volume of 202,373, and open interest of 333,076 with a decrease of 14,314 [7]. - O1605 opened at 9,515, closed at 9,484 with a loss of 38 (- 0.40%), trading volume of 53,411, and open interest of 113,258 with an increase of 3,842 [7]. - Ol601 opened at 9,780, closed at 9,770 with a gain of 5 (0.05%), trading volume of 254,334, and open interest decreased by 4,352 [7]. - **Base Price Information**: - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: 11 - 12 months, OI2601 + 300; 12 - 1 month, OI2601 + 260. East China first - grade rapeseed oil: 11 - 12 months, OI2601 + 430 [7]. - East China first - grade soybean oil basis price: y2601 + 280 in December; y2601 + 290 in January; y2605 + 400 from February to May; y2605 + 250 from June to September [7]. - Palm oil quotes from Guangdong traders were slightly lowered by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry News - In Malaysia, the production of palm oil in November decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 2.09% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.36% [10]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from October [10]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [10]. - As of November 26, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 36%, higher than 24.6% a week ago but 9% behind the same period last year and 1% behind the five - year average. Farmers in Santa Fe Province have started the second - season soybean sowing, with a progress of about 2.3%, and the emergence rate of sown soybeans is 23% [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - AgroConsult expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 178.1 million tons, with the planting area increasing by 2.1% to 48.8 million hectares. Brazil's soybean exports this year will reach 109.1 million tons and are expected to grow by 2.7% to 112 million tons next year [19]. - As of the week of November 23, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 65% to 99,500 tons compared with the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to November 23, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 1.9284 million tons, a 47.8% decrease from the same period last year. As of November 23, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.3743 million tons [19].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂月报 东南亚遭受洪涝灾害 国内油脂短期或震荡偏强 20251130 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：段福林 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，巴西进入种植末期，阿根廷已经完成36%的大豆播种率，南美大豆种植顺利推进。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，MPOA数据显示，马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油产量环比增加3.24%；SPPOMA ...

2025年11月30日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆情况，盘面震荡 | 8 | | 豆一：关注中美贸易情绪，盘面震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 13 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 19 | | 棉花：短期震荡偏强 | 26 | | 生猪：限仓驱动期现背离，产业逻辑将回归 | 33 | | 花生：关注现货 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 30 日 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：市场担忧马来四季度产量仍大，同时缺乏 B50 和美豆油的有效需求故事，棕榈油仍维持震荡 运行，但高产边际交易暂时充分，短期超跌后技术反弹支撑，棕榈油 01 合约周涨 0.1 ...

期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8360.00元/吨，环比变化-126元，幅度-1.48%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8144.00 元/吨，环比变化-24.00元，幅度-0.29%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9818.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8370.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.95%，现货基差P01+10.00，环比变化 +46.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y01+206.00， 环比变化+14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10140.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.40%，现货基差 OI01+322.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：11月25日，印尼北苏门答腊省官员表示，该省中塔帕努利地区正受到洪灾影响，从23日开始 的持续强降雨导致多个地点发生洪水和山体滑坡。该官员称，灾害已导致4人死亡。根据北苏门答腊灾害行动中心 收集的数据，分布在7个地区的1902个家庭受到洪灾影响。受灾居民正陆续被疏散到安全地点。印尼气象 ...

证券代码：839979 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8342，基差198，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：7900-8300附近区间震荡 油脂早报 2025-11-26投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of oils and fats lacks drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and an overall oscillating state. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and short operations within a range [8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2601 for soybean oil is 8144, down 24; palm oil is 8360, down 126; and rapeseed oil is 9818, up 40. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil shows different trends in different regions [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 198, down 8; for palm oil is - 82, up 8; and for rapeseed oil is 330, down 26 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 216, with a change of 64; OI - Y is 1674, with a change of 102; OI - P is 1458, with a change of 166; the oil - meal ratio is 2.70, down 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profit**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is 1034, and the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is 1082, with corresponding import profit situations [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 46th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 105.3 (last week: 65.3, last year: 118.0), palm oil is 66.7 (last week: 48.3), and rapeseed oil is 38.5 (last week: 43.0, last year: 44.1) [2]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit is $2.73 per bushel, down 12.2% from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 in 2023 [4]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The futures price closed down by more than 1%. As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, up 2.13% from the previous week. The import profit inversion has widened to around - 300. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price closed slightly down. The actual crushing volume last week was 233.44 tons, and the inventory was 117.99 tons, up 2.73% from the previous week. It is expected to maintain an oscillating state, and it is recommended to wait and see and consider light - position long after a stable correction [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. The crushing volume last week was 0 tons, and the inventory was 38.5 tons, down 4.5 tons from the previous week. The import profit inversion has widened to around - 1000. It is recommended to consider going long on OI03 or 05 contracts on dips [6]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side**: Wait and see or conduct short - term long and short operations within a range [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of different oils and fats, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025 [12][15].