Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations remain tense, putting pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,254, with a basis of 398, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward-sloping. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil is entering the production increase season, so the supply will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,480, with a basis of 8, showing a slight spot premium over futures. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Same MPOB report situation as above, and entering the production increase season with increased supply. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,926, with a basis of 882, indicating a significant spot premium over futures. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season factor. [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （来源：粮信网） 本周适逢元旦假期，国内油脂上涨乏力，三大油脂维持区间震荡整理。小长假前工厂均有停机检修计 划，部分工厂大豆到厂延迟或影响开机时间。那么周内外围油脂期价跌跌不休的状态下，国内油脂能否 逆势迎来一波上涨行情呢？ 美豆市场交投清淡 周内CBOT大豆期货以下跌为主，主因仍是围绕着出口疲软与南美丰产预期为主。首先，自10月份中美 关系缓和以来，中国采买进度影响美豆走势。据最新媒体报道称，中国在2025年已采购至少800万吨美 国大豆，逐步接近1200万吨的采购目标，已成交船货主要集中在12月至次年3月装船。但是由于中美之 间尚未达成正式贸易协议，市场对后续采购节奏仍存疑虑，这种不确定性被部分交易者视为压制大豆价 格的重要因素。其次，当下南美天气，特别是巴西天气相当不错，丰产可期，进入1月份巴西部分早熟 地块进入收割期。叠加美豆价格优势不明显，使得美豆未来压力重重。 周内棕榈油期价下跌 本周马来西亚棕榈油期价以下跌为主，周内跌幅2.42%。在刚刚结束的2025年，棕榈油期货下跌近9%， 主要因为棕榈油供应增长，出口需求面临印尼竞争，令吉汇 ...

策略 中性 阶段供应紧张，支撑豆油价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8658.00元/吨，环比变化+146元，幅度+1.72%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7878.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9086.00元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.51%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8590.00元/吨，环比变化+100.00元，幅度+1.18%，现货基差P05+-68.00，环比变 化-46.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8260.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.36%，现货基差Y05+382.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9830.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+0.92%，现货基差 OI05+744.00，环比变化+44.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，巴西12月大豆出口量预计为302万吨， 之前一周预计为357万吨。巴西12月玉米出口量预计为352万吨，之前一周预计为635万吨。巴西12月豆粕出口量预 计为187万吨， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With sufficient soybean arrivals, the soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, resulting in a loose supply of soybean oil and high inventory. It is expected that soybean oil will remain volatile in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.65% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,818 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan or 0.23% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.07% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%, and the spot basis was P05 - 22 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 412 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.41%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 700 yuan, an increase of 46 yuan [1] Market News - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil for different shipping dates remained flat compared to the previous trading day, while the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans for January shipping decreased by 2 dollars/ton [2] - The export volume of Argentine soybean oil in November was 524,000 tons, lower than the previous month and last year. The total exports to India and Nepal increased. The total exports in the first 11 months were 6.48 million tons, lower than the same period in 2024. Further shipments are expected to be lower than last year due to reduced soybean processing and lower inventory [2] - Argentina announced a reduction in export tariffs for the soybean industry, with soybean tariffs decreasing from 26.5% to 24% and soybean product tariffs from 24.5% to 22.5% [2] Soybean Oil Situation - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1235 million tons, at a nearly 6 - year high. Last Thursday, the market traded on the delay of soybean customs clearance, boosting the soybean - related market, and the short - covering led to an increase in the spot basis [3]

油脂日报 | 2025-12-26 油脂驱动乏力，盘面震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7824.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8981.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8500.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.24%，现货基差P05-42.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化-80.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI05+649.00，环比变化+49.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(2月船期)C&F价格1124美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调22美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4 月船期)C&F价格1058美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调29美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand is improving, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8202, with a basis of 374, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22nd, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but the subsequent production season will lead to an increase in palm oil supply [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8540, with a basis of 2, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22nd, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9801, with a basis of 820, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22nd, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4] 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to Rise**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Likely to Fall**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level in history, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to lower production expectations. The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. After India increased its import channels for oils this year, the pace of India's palm oil purchases slowed down, and recent export data also slowed. However, with the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction season, the market expects future supply to decrease synchronously, and the overall situation will continue to fluctuate [1][2] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,486 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.86% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,772 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,847 yuan/ton, a change of -17 yuan or -0.19% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.81%, and the spot basis was P05 - 56 yuan, a change of +78 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,190 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan or +0.37%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 418 yuan, a change of +30 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,400 yuan/ton, a change of +70 yuan or +0.75%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 553 yuan, a change of +87 yuan [1] Market News - As of December 21, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting in July) reached 6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%; the total imports of rapeseed were 1.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41%; the imports of soybean meal decreased by 11% to 8.83 million tons, and the imports of palm oil were 1.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9%. The Indonesian Meteorological Agency stated that the rainy season in Indonesia is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the authorities should strive to improve efficiency during the harvest period of major crops such as palm oil. As of December 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 2,148,146 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Previous settlement price 8336, opening price 8256, highest price 8422, lowest price 8230, closing price 8414, up 18, increase 0.94%, trading volume 431457, open interest 452542, change -689 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 8320, opening price 8240, highest price 8406, lowest price 8230, closing price 8400, up 80, increase 0.96%, trading volume 25444, open interest 56436, change -5472 [7] - Y2605: Previous settlement price 7728, opening price 7714, highest price 1116, lowest price 7680, closing price 1112, up 44, increase 0.57%, trading volume 238786, open interest 658590, change -9833 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 7956, opening price 7912, highest price 8016, lowest price 7912, closing price 8002, up 46, increase 0.58%, trading volume 42026, open interest 55188, change -15386 [7] - O1605: Previous settlement price 8823, opening price 8744, highest price 8892, lowest price 8712, closing price 8864, up 41, increase 0.46%, trading volume 281355, open interest 200067, change -8112 [7] - OI601: Previous settlement price 9013, opening price 8949, highest price 9066, lowest price 8893, closing price 9044, up 31, increase 0.34%, trading volume 16933, open interest 18383, change -3661 [7] Market Analysis - Intra - day oil and fat closed with a positive line, palm oil stopped falling and rebounded first. The rebound of CBOT soybeans and crude oil boosted the domestic oil and fat market [8] - Malaysian high - frequency data showed that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline in southern Malaysia from December 1 - 20 expanded, providing support for the palm oil market [8] - Rumors of the suspension of imported soybean auctions and the continued decline of domestic soybean oil inventory made the basis of soybean oil strong, and the futures price had strong support at the current position [8] - Rapeseed oil was considered to have a lower valuation due to the record global rapeseed production and the contraction of Canadian exports affected by Chinese tariffs, and was generally used as a short - side allocation in arbitrage [8] Operation Suggestions - Futures prices may have an oversold rebound, but caution should be exercised regarding the height of the unilateral upward movement. In arbitrage, long positions in palm oil and soybean oil and short positions in rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of December 17, the sowing of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop was 67.3% complete, up from 58.6% a week ago. 93% of the sown soybeans were rated normal to excellent, and 92% of the bean fields had suitable to optimal moisture. 6.2% of the soybeans had entered the early flowering stage, and the sowing progress of second - season soybeans reached 40.6% of the intended area [9] - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 851057 tons, up 2.4% from 831005 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, down 4000 tons from the previous month [9] Group 4: Data Overview - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.26% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.17% [16] - AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 821442 tons, down 0.9% from 828680 tons in the same period of November [16] - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 676674 tons, up 43.6% from 471222 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 83,000 tons, up 45,000 tons from the previous month [16] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 851057 tons, up 2.4% from 831005 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, down 4000 tons from the previous month [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated upward yesterday. High - frequency data shows strong export data from palm oil producing areas and a seasonal decline in production, leading to a rebound of palm oil from the bottom, which provides some support for the oil market [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,414.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +122 yuan and a change of +1.47%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,772.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +60.00 yuan and a change of +0.78%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,864.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +120.00 yuan and a change of +1.37% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,280.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +20.00 yuan and a change of +0.24%, and the spot basis was P05 - 134.00, with a month - on - month change of - 102.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,160.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +50.00 yuan/ton and a change of +0.62%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 388.00, with a month - on - month change of - 10.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +110.00 yuan and a change of +1.19%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 466.00, with a month - on - month change of - 10.00 yuan [1] Market Information - China's soybean imports in November 2025 were 8,107,364.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.50% and a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Brazil was the largest source of imports, with 5,852,856.71 tons imported in that month, a month - on - month decrease of 17.74% and a year - on - year increase of 48.55%. Argentina was the second - largest source, with 1,776,926.38 tons imported, a month - on - month increase of 13.39% and a year - on - year increase of 633.58% [2] - China's rapeseed imports in November 2025 were 1,998.30 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%. Kazakhstan was the largest source, with 1,731.60 tons imported. Russia was the second - largest source, with 266.70 tons imported, a year - on - year decrease of 89.20% [2] - As of the week ending December 4, the net sales of US soybeans for export in the 2025/2026 season were 1.552 million tons, compared with 1.106 million tons in the previous week [2] - Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 180.4 million tons, up from the November estimate of 178.5 million tons. The previous year's production was 171.5 million tons [2] - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month compared with the same period last month [2] - China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.25% and a year - on - year increase of 97.79%. Indonesia was the largest source, with 262,783.98 tons imported, a month - on - month increase of 55.29% and a year - on - year increase of 118.78%. Malaysia was the second - largest source, with 67,263.96 tons imported, a month - on - month increase of 42.52% and a year - on - year increase of 38.22% [2]

2025 年 12 月 18 日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,342 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,398 | 涨跌幅 0.67% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,822 | -0.64% | 7,832 | 0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,950 | -1.25% | 8,985 | 0.39% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,965 | 0.20% | 3,999 | 0.83% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.12 | 0.43% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 505,496 | 135430 | 437,681 | 21,344 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 251,763 | ...