Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2) Core Views - Palm oil has short - term support due to positive crude oil and macro sentiment; soybean oil is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to China - US trade progress [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,982 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and (night session) 8,930 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase, and (night session) 8,234 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% decrease; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,621 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and (night session) 9,579 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% decrease. Other futures prices and their changes are also presented [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 111,443 to 500,291 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,345 to 403,926 lots; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 140,618 to 279,490 lots, and open interest decreased by 5,073 to 506,250 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 4,753 to 280,029 lots, and open interest increased by 18,819 to 215,474 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,610 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan increase [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 180 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 639 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 742 yuan/ton, and other spreads are also provided [1] b) Macro and Industry News - On July 30, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff to 50% [2] - Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, up from 173.5 million tons in the previous year [4] - Heavy rains in western, northern, and central Ukraine have slowed down the harvest progress, leading to a decline in exports and a possible drop in rapeseed production. As of July 25, Ukrainian farmers had harvested about 1 million tons of rapeseed (compared to 3.3 million tons last year) and about 7 million tons of wheat (compared to 17 million tons last year) [4] c) Trend Intensity - Palm oil's trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil's trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with different levels of strength defined [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period, with favorable weather in major producing areas, causing some long - positions to leave. CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased month - on - month, and the prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil are weak, increasing the pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures to correct [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil spot supply is abundant, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is crucial for future imported soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly rebounded, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually falling, but the spot supply is still sufficient. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, and ICE rapeseed fluctuates narrowly. The uncertainty of imports still supports rapeseed oil prices, which are expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Argentina cuts export tariffs on most agricultural products, including reducing the tariff on sunflower seeds from 7% to 4%, soybeans from 33% to 26%, and soybean meal and soybean oil from 31% to 24.5% [2] - The US and the EU reach a major trade agreement, with the EU imposing a unified 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US, lower than the original 30% [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports will decrease by 5.1% in 2025, from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons due to increased domestic consumption [2] - As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China is 1088100 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons or 0.34% compared to last week [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. Some long - positions leave waiting for the result of the new round of US trade negotiations, and CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil faces increased correction pressure due to export decline, production increase, and weak prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil supply is abundant, and the Sino - US trade negotiation result is crucial for future imports. Palm oil maintains a weak supply - demand pattern and follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is falling, but supply is still sufficient, and the uncertainty of imports supports its price, which is expected to range - bound in the short term [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oils and fats is that prices may correct from high levels, and investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, after the correction, selling put options or buying call options can be considered [10][11][12] Summary by Section 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 24, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 8166, up 92; palm oil 2509 was 9104, up 110; and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9492, up 36. The basis for different regions and varieties showed various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 52, up 8; for palm oil it was 44, up 24; and for rapeseed oil it was 53, unchanged [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 938, down 18; the OI - Y spread was 1326; the OI - P spread was 388, down 74; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70, up 0.09 [3] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a盘面 profit of - 114, and CNF price was 1065. The FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil was 1043, with a盘面 profit of - 895 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 59.1 million tons (compared to 56.3 million tons last week and 109.2 million tons last year); palm oil inventory was 50.7 million tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons (compared to 70.6 million tons last week and 42.9 million tons last year) [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, the same as last month's forecast and higher than last year's 50.7 bushels per acre. The USDA also predicted the 2025/26 US soybean production at 4.335 billion bushels, lower than last month's forecast and last year's production [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: On July 24, 2025, palm oil futures prices rose more than 1%. As of July 18, 2025 (the 29th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The origin's quotes were stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There was a rumor of one ship purchase. The spot market was stable, and investors can consider buying on dips due to the potential for inventory build - up and the positive macro - environment [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: On July 24, 2025, soybean oil futures prices rose more than 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2305500 tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. As of July 18, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1091800 tons, a 4.04% increase from last week and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. The basis was stable. With a large arrival of soybeans and high crushing volume, soybean oil is in a phase of inventory build - up, but it is still showing a strong upward trend driven by the overall oil and fat market. Investors can consider buying on dips without over - chasing the high [6][8] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: On July 24, 2025, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59000 tons, and the operating rate was 15.72%. As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week, still at a historical high but with a continuous marginal reduction. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around $1020, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 600. The spot market was quiet, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. Due to more policy disturbances, the single - side price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8] 3. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct from high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] - **Options**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads over different time periods from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Short-term, it is expected that the prices of edible oils will experience a high-level correction. Investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, after the correction, investors can consider selling put options or buying call options [12][13][14] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2509 contract were 8076, 8926, and 9477 respectively. The price of soybean oil decreased by 16, palm oil increased by 16, and rapeseed oil decreased by 86. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 48, 24, and 66 respectively. The changes were +4, -28, and -5 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was -850 with a change of -32, the OI - Y spread was 1401, and the OI - P spread was 551 with a change of -102. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62 with a change of -0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The on - paper profit for 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -74, and for Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil, it was -654 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 29th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 59.1, 50.7, and 69.5 million tons respectively. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventory changes varied [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease from the same period last month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. It is expected to correct in the near future, and investors can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 109.18 million tons, a 4.04% increase from last week. With a large amount of soybeans arriving in the country and high crushing volume, it may experience a high - level correction in the short term and maintain a volatile trend. Investors can consider buying on dips [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. The spot market is sluggish, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term, expect edible oils to correct at high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [12] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13] - **Options Strategy**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different edible oils over the years, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Palm oil shows an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern due to multiple factors such as the digestion of inventory highs, positive domestic macro - sentiment, and potential supply reduction in the international market. However, there are uncertainties in production in July - August, and there may be a callback if inventory accumulates more than expected. There are opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [2][5]. - Soybean oil is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. With good weather for US soybeans, it currently lacks its own effective drivers and mainly follows the trend of the oil and fat sector. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in the future [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: After the slight increase in inventory in the June MPOB report, the negative impact was digested, and the market started to trade the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. With positive domestic macro - sentiment and a rebound in crude oil, the palm oil 09 contract rose 3.25% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations drove up US soybeans, which improved the weak reality of domestic soybean oil. But its fundamentals were still not as strong as palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread shrank significantly, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.18% last week [1]. This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Fundamental situation: The negative impact of the slight increase in June inventory has been digested, and there are no new effective negatives. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. The production increase rate in Malaysia from June - August is uncertain, and the 2025 production is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons. There is a risk that the production from July - August may be lower than the same period last year. The supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and Malaysia may still de - stock in July. In Indonesia, the price of palm oil and fruit bunches is high, and the trade sentiment is positive [2]. - Market factors: The US biodiesel policy is expected to reduce the supply of US soybean oil in the international market by at least 1.4 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, which may lead to a systemic increase in the international oil and fat market. Palm oil is sensitive to this, and bulls may pre - layout for the second - half - year market [2]. - Risk factors: If Malaysia and Indonesia maintain good yields from July - August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August - September. However, if the crude oil price center rises, the downward space for palm oil will be limited. If the inventory accumulates more than expected from August - September, and there are negative factors such as the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and a decline in crude oil prices, palm oil may still have a callback. Also, be vigilant about the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production and early de - stocking from July - August [2][5]. Soybean Oil - Fundamental situation: The weather speculation for US soybeans is currently weak. Good rainfall in the Midwest is conducive to the growth of US soybeans, and the yield outlook is positive. Domestic soybean oil is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with rapid inventory accumulation recently [4]. - Potential opportunities: If the purchase of US soybeans for the September shipment is not carried out, there may be an increase in forward crushing profit and Brazilian premium, which may benefit soybean oil. After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if there is a shortage of soybean imports due to Sino - US trade issues, there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [4]. 盘面基本行情数据 (Basic Market Data of Futures Contracts) - Palm oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 8,682 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,972 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,644 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,964 yuan/ton, with a rise of 3.25%. The trading volume was 2,877,519 lots, a decrease of 176,462 lots, and the open interest was 557,055 lots, an increase of 44,257 lots [7]. - Soybean oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 7,986 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,176 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,958 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,160 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.18%. The trading volume was 3,053,981 lots, a decrease of 10,092 lots, and the open interest was 558,184 lots, an increase of 54,927 lots [7]. 油脂基本面核心数据 (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory may turn to decline. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter. The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 were 621,770 tons, a 6.16% decrease compared to the same period last month [9][11]. - Price spread: The India - Malaysia 24 - degree FOB price spread has slightly declined. The POGO spread has rebounded significantly. The India palm oil import profit has stabilized and rebounded, and the India soybean - palm CNF spread has slightly increased [11][13]. - Import data: The cumulative import of palm oil in the EU in 2025 has decreased by 310,000 tons, and the cumulative import of four major oils and fats has decreased by 590,000 tons [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8042 with a rise of 30; for palm oil, it was 8722 with a rise of 14; for rapeseed oil, it was 9470 with a rise of 66. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spread for soybean oil was 42 with a fall of 4, for palm oil it was 18 with a rise of 2, and for rapeseed oil it was 72 with a rise of 4 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 680 with a rise of 16, the OI - Y spread was 1428 with a rise of 36, the OI - P spread was 748 with a rise of 52, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70 with a rise of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of - 208 for the 8 - month ship - period, with a CNF price of 1045. The European rapeseed oil had a negative profit of - 796 for the 8 - month ship - period, with an FOB price of 1026 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: As of the 28th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 104.9 million tons, palm oil was 56.3 million tons, and rapeseed oil was 70.6 million tons [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 17.95%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a 5.21% increase from the previous week. The import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips can be considered [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a 2.91% increase from the previous week. It is expected to fluctuate as it enters a phased inventory - building period [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to have large - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to ship - buying and policy changes [6][9]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [14]. - **Arbitrage**: For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again [14]. - **Options**: Wait and see [14]. 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various spreads and month - to - month spreads [13][16][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil prices have reached a three - week high, and concerns about potential US sanctions on Russia may tighten global supply. Coupled with increased Chinese crude oil imports, the stronger crude oil prices drive the plant oils to fluctuate on the strong side [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,748.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +66 yuan (+0.76%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,994.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +8.00 yuan (+0.10%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,424.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -15.00 yuan (-0.16%) [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,770.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan (+0.23%), and the spot basis was P09 + 22.00, with a daily change of -46.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,140.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -10.00 yuan/ton (-0.12%), and the spot basis was Y09 + 146.00, with a daily change of -18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,550.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -20.00 yuan (-0.21%), and the spot basis was OI09 + 126.00, with a daily change of -5.00 yuan [1] Market News - India's palm oil imports in June surged 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [2] - As of the end of June, China's broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The stock of social financing scale at the end of June 2025 was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2] - As of July 11, 2025 (week 28), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 563,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27,900 tons (5.21%) and a year - on - year increase of 47,300 tons (9.18%); the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1,049,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,700 tons (2.91%) [2] Import Prices - Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price was 573 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price was 563 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) C&F price was 1,137 US dollars/ton, up 28 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price was 1,087 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 449 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 444 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 463 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West Coast (August shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 253 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report was slightly bearish as the unexpected decline in exports in June exceeded the decrease in production and the increase in domestic consumption, causing the palm oil inventory to rise for the fourth consecutive month. The market did not expect such a significant drop in exports, with a 10.52% month - on - month decline in June. However, due to Malaysia's reduction in export tariffs in July, exports may increase, and strong exports limit the market decline. The upward space for palm oil is limited, and short - selling opportunities near the resistance level are worth attention [8]. - The market is waiting to see if the visit of the Australian Prime Minister to China will involve changes in rapeseed trade policies. For soybean oil, the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand. The 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil has dropped significantly to a technically oversold level and may recover [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market prices: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes are Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 and first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil is spot basis 09 + 150, Y2509 + 220 from July to September, and Y2601 + 300 from October to January. In South China, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil is P09 + 150 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7]. - Oil and fat comments: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase. The report was slightly bearish. Due to the reduction of export tariffs in July, exports may increase. AmSpec data showed a 12% month - on - month increase in palm oil exports from July 1 - 10. The upward space for palm oil is limited. The market is waiting for news on rapeseed trade policies. Soybean oil supply is loose, and the 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil may recover [8]. 2. Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 was 1.6923 million tons, a decrease of 79,300 tons from May, a 4.48% month - on - month decline. Imports were 70,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from May, a 1.51% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.2594 million tons, a decrease of 148,100 tons from May, a 10.52% month - on - month decline. The end - of - month inventory was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase [9]. - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 51.5 bushels per acre. If the weather remains favorable, the yield may be further adjusted upwards [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][22][24][29][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The significant increase in Brazilian soybean exports led to a loose domestic soybean supply. Coupled with the weak MPOB export data and the accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the oil prices were under pressure and oscillated [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,638.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40 yuan and a decline of -0.46% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,944.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +24.00 yuan and an increase of +0.30% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,468.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -42.00 yuan and a decline of -0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -10.00 yuan and a decline of -0.11%. The spot basis was P09 + 82.00, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +20.00 yuan/ton and an increase of +0.25%. The spot basis was Y09 + 176.00, with a环比 change of -4.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40.00 yuan and a decline of -0.41%. The spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, with a环比 change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Brazilian Exports - ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports in July to reach 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase from 9.6 million tons in the same period last year - It expects soybean meal exports to be 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase from 2.01 million tons last year - It expects corn exports to be 4.34 million tons, a 7.66% decrease from 4.7 million tons last year [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 8, about 9% of US soybean growing areas were affected by drought, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year - About 12% of US corn growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 7% last year - About 3% of US cotton growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 22% last year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast - The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach 169.4879 million tons, a 14.7% increase of 21.7666 million tons year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 0.1179 million tons环比 - The sown area is expected to reach 47.6149 million hectares, a 3.2% increase of 1.4653 million hectares year-on-year and a decrease of 0.0049 million hectares环比 - The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.56 tons per hectare, an 11.2% increase of 358.638 kg per hectare year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 2.108 kg per hectare环比 [2] MPOB Monthly Report - Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a 10.52% decrease环比 - Production was 1,692,310 tons, a 4.48% decrease环比 - Imports were 70,015 tons, a 1.51% increase环比 - Inventory was 2,030,580 tons, a 2.41% increase环比 [2]