Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock market has declined for the fourth consecutive day, raising concerns among investors about high valuations amid upcoming retail earnings reports and a central bank conference [1] Market Performance - S&P 500 index fell by 0.7% and Nasdaq dropped over 1% [1] Valuation Concerns - Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, stated that stock valuations are expensive compared to fundamentals [1] - The market has not experienced a significant correction in 16 years, leading to a tendency among investors to overlook potential market adjustments [1] Consumer Spending Pressure - Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Management, reported that consumer spending is under pressure due to several factors, including slowing job growth, the resumption of student loan repayments, and an increase in eviction rates, which reduces the consumer base [1]

Group 1 - The US retail sales data for July showed a stable growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating a positive consumer spending trend despite concerns over tariffs and rising import prices [1][2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model updated the third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, with an upward revision of personal consumption expenditure growth from 2.0% to 2.2% for the July to September period [2] - The increase in retail sales alleviated concerns about economic stagnation following three months of weak employment data, although the impact of tariffs on prices remains a concern for future monetary policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The July import price index rose by 0.4%, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, indicating that tariffs are exerting cost pressure on imported goods [2] - The consumer confidence index dropped for the first time since April, with the University of Michigan's index falling from 61.7 to 58.6, reflecting concerns over rising inflation [2] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although there are concerns that tariffs have not yet fully impacted consumer prices [3]

Core Insights - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [1][4] - The actual retail sales adjusted for inflation showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, indicating resilience in consumer spending for the tenth consecutive month [1][4] Retail Sales Performance - July retail sales data indicates a broad improvement in consumer activity, with 9 out of 13 categories reporting growth, led by automotive sales which saw the largest increase since March [4] - Online retailers and general merchandise stores also experienced growth, likely benefiting from promotional events such as Amazon's extended Prime Day and Walmart's discount activities [4] - Excluding automobiles, July retail sales rose by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, while the previous month's figure was revised up to 0.9% [1][2][4] Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - Despite concerns over consumer confidence reflected in softer survey data, consumers continue to spend, supported by a recovering labor market and clearer trade policies [9] - The strong retail sales performance suggests a better start for consumer spending in the second half of the year, crucial for sustaining US economic activity [9] - Challenges ahead for consumers include rising debt levels, the resumption of student loan repayments, and reduced savings, which may impact future spending [9] Market Reactions - Following the release of retail data, US Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield turning upward to 3.740% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The retail sales in the U.S. for July increased by 0.5% month-over-month, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [1][4] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - July retail sales showed broad improvement in consumer activity, with a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, slightly below the expected 0.6%, while June's data was revised up to 0.9% from 0.6% [3][4] - Excluding automobile sales, July retail sales rose by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [3][4] - Among 13 categories, 9 recorded growth, with automobile sales leading the increase, achieving the largest growth since March [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Insights - The actual retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 1.2% year-over-year, marking the tenth consecutive month of positive growth, indicating resilient consumer spending despite inflationary pressures [5][8] - The strong retail sales performance suggests a better start for consumer spending in the second half of the year, supported by a clearer trade policy and stock market rebound [8][10] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The "control group" sales, which are included in the GDP calculation, increased by 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.4% [9] - Despite the positive retail sales data, challenges such as higher debt levels, the resumption of student loan repayments, and reduced savings may impact future consumer spending [10]

Core Viewpoint - Weyco Group, Inc. has faced significant challenges in its recent earnings report, with declines in both sales and earnings attributed to economic uncertainty and increased tariffs [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a second-quarter 2025 EPS of 24 cents, down from 59 cents in the prior-year quarter [1]. - Net sales decreased by 9% to $58.2 million from $63.9 million year-over-year [2]. - Net earnings fell 60% to $2.3 million compared to $5.6 million in the same quarter last year [2]. - Gross earnings as a percentage of net sales declined to 43.3% from 43.9% [2]. Segment Performance - In the North American Wholesale segment, sales dropped 9% to $45.6 million, with major brands like Nunn Bush, Stacy Adams, Florsheim, and BOGS experiencing declines of 11%, 10%, 5%, and 14% respectively [3]. - Retail sales fell 11% to $6.8 million, driven by weaker demand on Florsheim and Stacy Adams websites [3]. - The "Other" category, which includes operations in Australia and South Africa, saw a 4% sales decline to $5.8 million, resulting in an operating loss of $0.2 million [3]. Management Commentary - The CEO described the quarter as facing "headwinds" from tariffs and reduced consumer spending, with expectations of continued economic uncertainty [4]. - Management highlighted the company's strong financial position, which they believe will support long-term growth despite current challenges [4]. - Efforts to diversify sourcing away from China to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and India were emphasized [4]. Influencing Factors - The earnings decline was primarily due to reduced consumer spending and higher import costs from tariffs, with the China-specific tariff peaking at 145% in April 2025 [5]. - Weyco has taken measures to mitigate cost pressures, including pre-purchasing inventory and negotiating supplier cost reductions [5]. Guidance - Management anticipates ongoing top-line pressure in the coming months due to tariffs and weak consumer sentiment, with potential seasonal softness in casual and dress footwear [6]. Other Developments - On August 5, 2025, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of 27 cents per share, payable on September 30, 2025 [7]. - The company allocated $3.1 million for share repurchases and approximately $0.7 million for capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore ISI warn that the S&P 500 index may decline by 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months due to high market valuations, rising inflation, slowing job growth, and weak consumer spending [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Historical data indicates that August and September are typically poor-performing months for the S&P 500 index [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for the S&P 500 has exceeded 70, suggesting that the market may be "overheated" [1] Group 2: Options Market Insights - The cost of hedging against a market downturn is increasing, with the implied volatility premium for put options reaching its highest level since the regional banking crisis in 2023 [1]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with the highest price at 998 CNY/gram and the lowest at 969 CNY/gram, maintaining a price difference of 29 CNY/gram [1] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufu, and Zhou Dafu have reported stable prices, while Zhou Shengsheng and Lao Fengxiang have seen slight increases of 4 CNY and 1 CNY respectively [3][4] - The gold recovery price has seen a slight increase of 1.5 CNY/gram, with significant price differences among brands [4] Group 2 - International gold prices showed an upward trend, reaching a peak of 3314.65 USD/ounce before closing at 3289.02 USD/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.42% [6] - The rise in gold prices was influenced by concerns over changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the increase of tariffs on Canada to 35% [6] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are low, with only 41.2% anticipating a reduction, which may limit gold price increases [6]

Core Inflation and Consumer Spending - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to a year-high in June, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating limited progress in inflation relief over the past year [1][4] - Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, showed minimal recovery after a decline in May, reflecting a stagnant economic environment [1][5] Divergence in Economic Indicators - Economic data reveals a tug-of-war: while inflation is stagnating, concerns over Trump's tariff policies potentially raising prices are growing, alongside a weak labor market leading to reduced consumer spending [2][3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its fifth consecutive meeting, with two members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions regarding monetary policy [4] Consumer Behavior and Spending Trends - Consumer spending has shown the weakest growth since the pandemic, with June's recovery primarily driven by a rebound in non-durable goods, while durable goods purchases have declined for three consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 2021 [5] - The root of consumer weakness is attributed to a cooling labor market, with real disposable income remaining flat after a decline in May and wage growth nearly stagnant [9] Inflation Drivers and Future Outlook - June's price increases were mainly driven by home goods, sports equipment, and clothing, reflecting the impact of import tariffs on consumer prices [9] - Economists warn of potential upward pressure on inflation due to a new round of tariffs expected to be announced by Trump, alongside sustained high levels of key PCE components [9]

北京时间周四20:30，美国公布PCE数据，6月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，高于预期的2.70%，前值由2.70%修正为2.8%。6月核心PCE物价指数月率录 得0.3%，符合预期，高于前值的0.20%。 包含食品能源的整体PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，分别高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。 数据还显示，个人消费支出价格指数环比上涨0.3%，将年率提升至2.6%，为2月份以来的最高水平。支出疲软的背后是劳动力市场降温。实际可支配收入在 5月份下降后持平，而工资和薪金几乎没有上涨。预计将于周五公布的7月就业报告将显示招聘持续放缓，失业率略有回升。储蓄率保持在4.5%。 美国系列数据公布后，现货黄金短线波动暂不大，美元指数短线小幅走高。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos表示，（6月）核心PCE通胀看起来开始恶化，并不比美联储去年开始降息时更好，从某些指标来看甚至更糟。6月份核心PCE 物价指数3个月年化率为2.6%（去年同期为2.3%）。按6个月年化计算，这一数字为3.2%（去年同期为3.3%）。 美国6月通胀数据略超预期，为美联储降息时间表再添变数。政策制定者此前强调，需要看 ...

美国6月PCE物价指数同比增长2.6%，增幅创2024年12月以来最大，且高于预期值2.5%和前值2.3%；美 国6月核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.8%，增幅创2025年2月以来最大，亦高于预期值和前值（两者均为 2.7%）。美国6月实际个人消费支出(PCE)环比增长0.1%，增幅符合预期。数据显示，美国通胀增速在 加快，而消费者支出几无增长，这一矛盾局面凸显出政策制定者在利率路径问题上的分歧。 ...