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煤焦日报:偏空氛围主导,煤焦弱势震荡-20250527
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 10:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On May 27, the coke main contract closed at 1364 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.94%. The supply of coke increased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the demand decreased week - on - week. Coke inventory increased significantly at independent coking plants. Affected by upstream cost and downstream demand concerns, the coke futures will maintain a weak operation [5][33]. - On May 27, the coking coal main contract closed at 799.5 points, with an intraday decline of 0.12%. The supply of coking coal is expected to contract in late May, and the demand increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has been partially repaired, but the overall situation is still loose. The coking coal futures will oscillate weakly due to the weak market atmosphere [6][34]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industry News - In April 2025, the weighted average procurement cost of steel raw materials converted to dry basis was 1238.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38.32 yuan/ton or 3.00%. From January to April, the cumulative average procurement cost was 1328.03 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 637.98 yuan/ton or 32.45% [8]. - On May 27, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 65.4 US dollars/ton, up 0.8 US dollars/ton from the previous auction on May 9. All 64,000 tons of the listed quantity were unsold [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - price is 1390 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decline of 3.47%, an annual decline of 17.75%, and a year - on - year decline of 31.86%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse is 1250 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.57%, a monthly decline of 6.72%, an annual decline of 22.84%, and a year - on - year decline of 38.42% [10]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 970 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decline of 6.28%, an annual decline of 17.80%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.38%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1290 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decline of 0.77%, an annual decline of 13.42%, and a year - on - year decline of 40.83%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1320 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decline of 5.71%, an annual decline of 13.73%, and a year - on - year decline of 38.60% [10]. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract was 1364.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.94%. The highest price was 1382.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1348.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 26,256, the volume difference was 4,779, the position was 56,307, and the position difference was 591 [13]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the active contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.12%. The highest price was 806.5 yuan/ton, the lowest was 788.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 521,082, the volume difference was - 71,174, the position was 521,014, and the position difference was 1,529 [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including independent coking plants, steel mills, ports, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, ports, steel mills, and independent coking plants), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal line - screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][28]. Market Outlook - Coke: The supply and demand situation remains unchanged from the core view, and it is expected that the coke spot market will maintain a bearish atmosphere in the short term [5][33]. - Coking Coal: The supply and demand situation remains unchanged from the core view, and the coking coal market atmosphere is still under pressure from downstream price - cut expectations [6][34].
煤焦:盘面震荡偏弱,节前注意持仓风险
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 12:38
投资咨询业务资格: 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 成 材:武秋婷 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 晨报 煤焦 煤焦:盘面震荡偏弱 节前注意持仓风险 基本面上,目前钢厂保持较高的生产率,上周日均铁水产量超预期增 至 244.35 万吨,环比前一周增加 4.23 万吨,同比去年增加 15.63 万吨, 焦炭等原料刚性需求较好,叠加关税压力缓和,市场情绪回升,支撑煤焦 提涨情绪。但铁水已处于往年同期高位水平,继续提产空间有限,近期钢 协指出在当前需求下滑、市场下行的背景下,减产已是行业共识,亟须转 化为统一行动,目前部分钢厂发布 5 月份检修计划,预计铁水将在 5 月见 顶,后期存在需求负反馈的风险。供应端,焦化厂利润改善,保持稳步增 产趋势;煤矿端生产积极性同样较高,矿山端焦原煤库存量继续攀升。总 体来看煤焦供应端增量的压力仍存。 原材料:程 鹏 观点:关税形势缓和,但仍存不确定性,持续 ...
煤焦:盘面维持低位震荡运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:42
晨报 煤焦 成 材:武秋婷 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 原材料: 冯艳成 从业资格号:F3059529 投资咨询号:Z0018932 电话:010-62688516 有色金属:于梦雪 从业资格号:F03127144 投资咨询号:Z0020161 电话:021-20857653 成文时间: 2025 年 4 月 29 日 煤焦:盘面维持低位震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格: 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素:关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明: 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料,我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更,我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正,但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考,投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址:北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.z ...