Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Based on the expectation of a downward shift in the oil price center next year, the unilateral prices of FU and LU will be continuously constrained. The current market contradictions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are relatively limited, with overall sufficient supply. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil has marginally eased, and the market structure has slightly repaired. In the future, the supply - demand pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil will be better, and after the crack spread is adjusted, it may stimulate refinery demand and drive the market to strengthen again. Low - sulfur fuel oil still faces contradictions such as excess capacity and declining terminal demand, with a weak market outlook, but the downward space of the crack spread is relatively limited [6]. - The expectation of oversupply in the oil market will gradually materialize, and the upside resistance at the crude oil end may continue. In 2025, the unilateral prices of fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil, and the market structure alternated between strength and weakness. In 2026, the structural contradictions of fuel oil may continue, with Russia being an important variable. The change in consumption tax policy has led to a decline in domestic refinery demand, but the basic demand remains. The substitution effect is emerging, and the demand elasticity at the power generation terminal is increasing. The risk of trade war is temporarily controllable, but the structure of marine fuel demand is facing continuous transformation. The upgrading and elimination of refinery capacity are concurrent, and the downward trend of high - sulfur fuel oil yield may continue. OPEC is gradually exiting production cuts, releasing the supply of medium - and heavy - quality crude oil and fuel oil. The Russia - Ukraine situation is still unclear, and there are uncertainties in Russia's supply. The remaining capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is still relatively abundant, and profit factors will restrict supply growth. There is still support at the bottom for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the market outlook for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [8]. Summary by Directory Supply - demand Structural Contradictions and Market Differentiation - The structural support factors for high - sulfur fuel oil still exist. After the crack spread回调, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [5]. Crude Oil Market - In 2025, international oil prices were in a wide - range volatile decline. Taking Brent as a reference, the annual average price was 68.87 US dollars/barrel, a 13.76% decline from 2024. In 2026, under the neutral expectation, the crude oil market still has downward pressure due to the inability of demand growth to offset supply surplus, and inventory accumulation. However, factors such as China's import strength, Saudi's supply regulation, and changes in Russia's sanctions policy may affect the market [13][14][15]. Fuel Oil Market in 2025 - The unilateral prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils showed a volatile decline, driven by the cost of crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure first strengthened due to supply tightening and seasonal demand, then weakened due to demand suppression and increased supply. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure had smaller fluctuations, with short - term strengthening and subsequent weakening due to trade, policy, and production factors [28][29]. Fuel Oil Market in 2026 Demand Side - Domestic refinery demand for fuel oil declined due to consumption tax policy changes, but the basic demand remains. Overseas, refineries' demand for high - sulfur fuel oil was boosted. The demand for fuel oil at the power generation terminal has elasticity due to seasonality and substitution effects, but may be squeezed by Saudi's increased use of crude oil. The risk of trade war is temporarily controllable, and marine fuel demand is expected to grow, but the demand structure is facing transformation, with low - sulfur fuel oil's market share being squeezed [58][77][91]. Supply Side - The upgrading and elimination of refinery capacity will continue, which may further reduce the high - sulfur fuel oil yield. OPEC's gradual exit from production cuts will increase the supply of medium - and heavy - quality crude oil and high - sulfur fuel oil. The Russia - Ukraine situation is uncertain, and Russia's fuel oil supply may increase or decrease. The remaining capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is abundant, and profit factors will restrict supply growth [108][112][125]. Market Outlook - The supply - demand pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil is better than that of low - sulfur fuel oil. After the crack spread adjustment, the high - sulfur fuel oil market may strengthen. Low - sulfur fuel oil still faces problems such as excess capacity and declining terminal demand, with a weak market outlook, but the downward space of the crack spread is relatively limited [141].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fuel oil market is driven by limited factors and is operating in a weak and volatile manner. Crude oil prices continue to oscillate weakly, and the expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further subside, putting downward pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil. The fundamentals of the fuel oil market itself have limited drivers. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has encountered resistance after a slight repair, and the tightening of local supply is only temporary. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there are still supporting factors, and the lower support for valuation comes from the flexible demand of refineries. In general, the short - term market contradictions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are limited, and they may fluctuate following the crude oil market. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil does not have a strong trend for the time being [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night - session closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures dropped 0.28% to 2,493 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 0.69% to 3,034 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are in a weak and volatile state. The expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further decline, which suppresses the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market have limited drivers. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has encountered resistance after a slight repair, and the tightening of local supply is only temporary. The supply of Dangote refinery has not completely stopped, the partial units of Azur refinery that were under maintenance due to faults are expected to restart around November 29, and the shipment of Sudanese low - sulfur crude oil is also recovering [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, there are still supporting factors, and the lower support for valuation comes from the flexible demand of refineries [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2482.00 yuan, closing at 2497.00 yuan, down 1.27% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Dayue Futures predicts that the price gap between high and low sulfur fuel oil will continue to narrow due to a slight recovery in demand for ship fuel, which has led to a rise in spot prices for marine fuel [2]. - Southwest Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, noting that the previous trading day saw high sulfur fuel oil open high but close lower, remaining below the moving average [2]. - The high sulfur fuel oil market is showing strength, with the 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil trading momentum remaining robust, while the ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market remains stable with slight premium pricing [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The Hi-5 price difference, which measures the premium of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil over 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil, has decreased to around 80 USD per ton, indicating a slight recovery in high sulfur fuel oil [2]. - The cracking spread for ultra-low sulfur fuel oil has dropped to approximately 5.40 USD per barrel, while the cracking spread for 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil has risen to nearly a 7 USD discount amid fluctuating trading [2]. - Reports indicate that four transactions of 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil and one transaction of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil were completed in the Singapore trading window, with no transactions for 180-cst high sulfur fuel oil [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] Group 2: Core Views - The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, but the upward driving force remains limited [1] - Crude oil prices continue in a weak and volatile state, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - The fundamental situation of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils is converging. The previously strong high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals have marginally loosened, but there are still supporting factors below [1] - Recently, the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait has tightened marginally, and the strength of overseas gasoline and diesel has also boosted the valuation of low-sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, it faces the contradiction of being substituted in marine fuel demand and has abundant surplus capacity, so it does not have the conditions to strengthen continuously [1] Group 3: Strategy - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For cross-variety: Positions with long LU-FU spreads can be appropriately taken profit [2] - For cross-period: No strategy provided [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy provided [2] - For options: No strategy provided [2] Group 4: Market Data - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,560 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.21% at 3,266 yuan/ton [1] - Multiple charts show prices, spreads, and trading volume data for Singapore and Chinese fuel oil futures and spot markets [3]

燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/18 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/11 | 381.44 | 422.72 | -4.85 | 715.93 | -293.21 | 32.12 | 41.28 | | 2025/11/12 | 365.00 | 405.19 | -5.03 | 692.85 | -287.66 | 31.72 | 40.19 | | 2025/11/13 | 367.09 | 406.14 | -4.95 | 687.85 | -281.71 | 30.65 | 39.05 | | 2025/11/14 | 371. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent weak and volatile operation of crude oil prices has put some pressure on the FU and LU futures markets. High - sulfur fuel oil is in an adjustment phase, with a decline in crack spreads, monthly spreads, and spot premiums, but there are still structural support factors. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure has marginally eased due to reduced production from Azul and Dangote refineries, and the market structure has slightly repaired [2]. - The Azul refinery's planned restart of its device on November 11 has been postponed to around December 9, and the observed Kuwaiti low - sulfur fuel oil shipments remain at zero, which provides some short - term support to the market [2]. Strategy Summary High - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish [3] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish [3] Cross -品种 Strategy - Go long on the LU2601 - FU2601 spread on dips [3] Cross - term Strategy - None [3] Spot - futures Strategy - None [3] Options Strategy - None [3] Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.45% at 2,671 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.08% at 3,262 yuan/ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fuel oil contracts showed an overall oscillating downward trend, following the international crude oil's fluctuation rhythm, and relatively underperforming compared to low-sulfur fuel oil. Although the international crude oil was briefly supported by factors such as the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risks and rumors of EU sanctions against Russia, the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter remained unchanged. The price oscillated weakly, providing limited guidance to the fuel oil market. The FU2601 contract is expected to maintain an overall range-bound pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,695 yuan/ton this week, down 50 yuan/ton or 1.82% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price this week was 2,809 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,672 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2,314,688 lots, and the open interest was 202,923 lots, an increase of 10,710 lots [3]. - **Variety Prices**: The fuel oil futures contract prices showed a backwardation market pattern of higher near-term and lower far-term prices. As the main contract, FU2601's liquidity continued to be concentrated, and the open interest of the FU2602 contract also showed a steady increasing trend [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week, and the current basis level was in the lower range of recent months. The fuel oil price was closely linked to crude oil, and the low-level consolidation of crude oil further restricted the upward elasticity of the basis [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The benchmark price of fuel oil decreased compared to the beginning of the month, but the specific data was not clearly provided in the text [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has slightly weakened, and the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has been weak recently. The strength pattern of high and low sulfur has changed marginally, and the high-low sulfur spread has rebounded slightly from a low level [1] - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance has emerged again, and the FU and LU disk prices have followed suit. Currently, there are still macro uncertainties, so caution is advised [1] - If there are no major problems with Russian supply, there is no shortage expectation in the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the upward valuation space is limited [1] - With the restart of the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally [1] Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,796 yuan/ton, and the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.55% at 3,246 yuan/ton [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil recently show a pattern of "high-sulfur stronger than low-sulfur", but the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has shown signs of slight weakness. While the unilateral price has followed the decline of crude oil, the outer market month spread and crack spread have also declined [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.74% at 2,818 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.71% at 3,273 yuan/ton. After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance emerged again, and the FU and LU markets adjusted accordingly. Due to the current macro uncertainties, caution is advised [1]. - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows that "high - sulfur is stronger than low - sulfur". High - sulfur fuel oil production in Russia has been affected by drone attacks, leading to unplanned maintenance in several refineries and a marginal tightening of supply. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The impact of sanctions on Russian supply is difficult to quantify, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain support [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently. However, with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, and the downside space based on the current valuation level is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.74% at 2,818 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.71% at 3,273 yuan/ton [1]. - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance emerged, and the FU and LU markets adjusted. Due to macro uncertainties, caution is needed [1]. - The fundamental situation of fuel oil is "high - sulfur is stronger than low - sulfur". High - sulfur fuel oil supply in Russia has tightened marginally due to refinery maintenance. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The impact of sanctions on Russian supply is hard to quantify, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has support [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil are weak, but with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, and the downside space based on the current valuation is limited [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]