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卓创资讯:8月湘赣生猪价震荡下行月底或迎反弹
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 03:12
Core Viewpoint - In August, the pig prices in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces showed a downward trend, with a slight narrowing of the decline in Jiangxi by mid-month. The market was characterized by oversupply due to reduced weight from the breeding sector and seasonal consumption decline, leading to falling prices [1][1]. Price Trends - As of August 18, the average trading price of live pigs in Hunan was 13.54 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decline since the beginning of the month [1][1]. - The average trading weight of live pigs in Hunan was recorded at 124.55 kilograms, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous month [1][1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The breeding sector in both provinces continued to reduce weights, contributing to an oversupply situation in the market, which pressured prices downward [1][1]. - In August, the outflow plans from 16 sample breeding enterprises in Hunan increased by 9.74% month-on-month, while 12 sample enterprises in Jiangxi saw a 3.83% increase [1][1]. Future Outlook - Towards the end of August, there may be a rebound in pig prices due to increased demand from schools preparing for the new academic year, which typically leads to higher procurement volumes [1][1]. - Despite the ongoing supply pressure, the current low price levels suggest that the extent of price declines may be limited, with potential support from seasonal demand factors [1][1].
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250818
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week, and the market may experience a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,800 to 14,200 [8]. - The overall sentiment in the domestic macro - environment is pessimistic, and the high - temperature weather has dampened residents' enthusiasm for fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs imposed on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered a slack season, with both supply and demand of pigs decreasing. The spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly in the short term, and the futures market followed a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork decreased in the short term. Affected by the decrease in both supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter [10]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a relatively low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand has suppressed the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and increase in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited potential for further decline in domestic live pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into a slack season after May Day [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand**: In August, as the peak season for supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approaches, the enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has increased. The short - term bottom - out and rebound of the pig price is followed by an oscillating pattern. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will increase this week. On the demand side, the pessimistic domestic macro - environment and high - temperature weather have dampened residents' consumption enthusiasm, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 13,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is - 245 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8]
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250808
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-08-08 02:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a shock adjustment. The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 380 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The live pig contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 626 lots today, with a position of about 59,600 lots. The highest price today was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,920 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,100 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a shock. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory to support pig prices, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the short - side thinks, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited while the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector), so pig prices are difficult to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. Market Overview - On August 7, 2025, compared with August 6, 2025, the 01 - contract price of live pigs increased by 85 yuan to 14,395 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.59%; the 03 - contract price increased by 40 yuan to 13,375 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.3%; the 05 - contract price remained unchanged at 13,895 yuan/ton; the 07 - contract price decreased by 10 yuan to 14,405 yuan/ton, with a decrease rate of 0.07%; the 09 - contract price increased by 60 yuan to 13,870 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.43%; the 11 - contract price increased by 90 yuan to 14,100 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.64% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts over different time periods [14].
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250805
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 02:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the holiday, and the demand is also affected by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather, resulting in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the LH2509 contract oscillating in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of pigs shows that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is bearish, the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, the main position is net short with a decrease in shorts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the pork market enters the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures price also shows an oscillatory and weak pattern. The decline in the spot price may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include a year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and limited room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices. Bearish factors are the pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the off - season for pig and pork consumption after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the number of short positions is decreasing [8].
涨回来了!猪市终于松了一口气,但还有更麻烦的事!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-02 02:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after a significant drop in pig prices in July, there has been a recovery in August, particularly in northern regions, with prices returning above 7 yuan per kilogram [2][4] - The support for the bottom of pig prices is believed to be strong, as the market is unlikely to see a complete and sustained drop back to previous lows [4] - Downstream consumption is gradually improving, with expectations of increased demand due to seasonal changes and upcoming holidays, which may lead to controlled pig sales [5][6] Group 2 - The trend of decreasing average weight of slaughtered pigs has been observed, reaching a six-year low, indicating effective measures in reducing production capacity and weight [6][8] - Despite the stabilization of pig prices, the overall supply pressure remains, making significant price increases challenging [8] - The fluctuations in pig prices also impact the corn and wheat markets, with current conditions suggesting that corn prices may remain strong in August due to stable demand from feed [10]
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250731
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-31 02:50
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of shock adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in a volatile manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention needs to be emphasized due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 30, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the farming sector will continue to reduce the weight of pigs. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,758 lots today, with a position of about 53,000 lots. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in a volatile manner. - Market bearish logic: slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. - Market bullish logic: there is still room for an increase in frozen - pork inventory, strong resilience of the spot price indicating less loose supply - demand than expected, and limited increase in future slaughter volume with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - View: shock adjustment. - Core logic: based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs will weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight, providing some support for the pig price; if the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in a volatile manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary [4]. Market Overview - National average pig slaughter price on July 30 was 13.93 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.07%. - In Henan, the pig slaughter price was 13.98 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.29%. - In Sichuan, the pig slaughter price remained unchanged at 13.24 yuan/kg. - Among futures contracts, the price of the 07 contract increased by 0.52%, while the prices of the 01, 03, 05, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, with the 09 contract falling by 0.53%. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 115 yuan to - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 54.76% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report presents historical data charts of futures contract closing prices, basis, and price differences between contracts in recent 180 days, as well as data on national average pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, and national average corn purchase price in grain depots [14].
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250731
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week, and the market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction. The main positions are net short, and the shorts are increasing. The recent supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and it is expected that the pig price will rise and then fall this week, returning to the range - bound pattern. The LH2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,900 - 14,300 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of live pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also weak due to the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to have a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered the off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and the spot price has been oscillating weakly in the short term, with the futures following the same pattern [12]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term. Affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs has been oscillating weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: As of July 30, the national average spot price of live pigs was 13,890 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 185 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10][14]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Price Trend**: The price was below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction [10]. 3.5 Position Data - The main positions were net short, and the shorts were increasing [10].
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also suppressed by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the inventory shows an increasing trend, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, the inventory is increasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. The expected price range of LH2509 is 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price oscillates weakly in the short term, and the futures follow a similar pattern [12]. - The short - term decline in pork demand after the May Day holiday and the decrease in both supply and demand lead to a weakly oscillating spot price, but the decline space may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The low - level pig - raising profit still exists in the short term, and the high slaughter enthusiasm of large pigs and the decrease in both supply and demand suppress the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future supply reduction and demand recovery [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited decline space of the domestic pig spot price [13]. - **Bearish factors**: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory data**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Price data**: The national average spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 305 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [10].
生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250725
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-07-25 01:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to macro - emotional impacts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 24, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of live pigs continues to decrease. The market sentiment of the main contract (LH2509) on that day was still acceptable, with a position of about 60,000 lots. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before the third - quarter peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen - product inventory, strong spot - price toughness, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, which will limit price increases. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support the price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention should be noted [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the 03 contract increased by 155 yuan to 13,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%; the 05 contract increased by 360 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.6%; the 07 contract remained unchanged at 14,010 yuan/ton; the 09 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 14,365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.54%; the 11 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.63% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the live - pig main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250723
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 03:00
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Futures Morning Report - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Advisory Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs may decrease this week after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. The price of LH2509 is expected to fluctuate between 14,100 and 14,500 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price is short - term volatile and weak, and the futures follow the same pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 14,310 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is - 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [10].