Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, indicating continued expansion in this sector [5] - The new orders index for consumer goods manufacturing was at the critical point of 50%, suggesting a good release of domestic market demand [5] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for April was 52.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, reflecting strong confidence among enterprises regarding market development [5] - Industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace showed high expectation indices of 58% and above, indicating robust business activity [7] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [8] - The service sector, particularly tourism and information services, showed positive performance, contributing to the overall growth in non-manufacturing activities [8][9] Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction business activity index was reported at 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, yet still indicating expansion [9] - With the arrival of the construction peak season, civil engineering investment is accelerating, highlighting the role of investment in driving economic growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - The March manufacturing PMI has returned to a one-year high, raising questions about whether it will repeat last year's pattern of a peak followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Comparison with Last Year - Similar to last year, the March PMI has seasonal increases following the end of the Spring Festival impact, but this year relies more on marginal improvements and enhanced "scientific content" rather than a short-term pulse effect [2] - The Longjiang Business School BCI for March is at 54.8%, higher than last year's 52.1%, and the EPMI has seen a significant month-on-month increase of 10.6 percentage points, marking the highest growth rate in two years [2] Group 2: PMI Performance Analysis - The new orders index for March PMI recorded 51.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points, becoming the largest driving factor for the manufacturing PMI [4] - The production index's month-on-month growth is only 0.1 percentage points, indicating that production recovery is lagging behind demand, possibly due to prior production being at sufficient levels [4] Group 3: Export and Demand Insights - The new export orders index for March PMI has increased by 0.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing efforts to "seize exports" [7] - Small enterprises have shown the most significant increase in PMI, with a month-on-month growth of 3.3 percentage points, contrasting with large enterprises' decline of 1.3 percentage points and medium enterprises' increase of 0.7 percentage points [7] Group 4: Sustainability of Demand Recovery - Despite positive signals from the March PMI, there are underlying risks, including weak performance in two major price indicators, with the raw material purchase price index at 49.8% and the factory price index at 47.9% [9] - The import index for March PMI is at 47.5%, reflecting a significant month-on-month decline of 2.0 percentage points, indicating insufficient domestic demand [12] - There is a prevailing cautious sentiment among enterprises, as the production activity expectation index has decreased from 54.5% in February to 53.8% in March, and the employment index has also declined [12]