Core Insights - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant decline in the average selling price of live pigs in October 2025, with a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year, suggesting ongoing pressure on pig prices in the near future [1] - The slaughter volume in October 2025 was 5.0352 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [1] - The report highlights that the proportion of large pigs being sold is lower than in the same period in 2024, while the inventory of large pigs is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of supply in the future [1] Industry Overview - The gross white price difference as of November 6, 2025, was 4.18 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.08 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 yuan/kg, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The national frozen product inventory rate was reported at 20.03%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, which may exert downward pressure on future pig prices due to high inventory levels [2] - In October 2025, the industry faced significant losses, with self-breeding and self-raising operations losing 167.97 yuan per head, reflecting a worsening financial situation for producers [3] - The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of November 7, 2025, indicating a trend of reduction in breeding capacity [3] Company Performance - In October 2025, 12 listed pig companies reported a total of 16.9469 million heads sold, a year-on-year increase of 29.29%, with individual companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing significant increases in their sales volumes [4] - The average selling price for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with prices for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs decreasing by 10.3% and 12.2% respectively [5] - The average weight of pigs sold by major companies also saw a decline, with Dabeinong reporting an average weight of 110.1 kg per head, down 18.8 kg from the previous month [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of live pigs in the far - month. Strategically, it is possible to be bullish in the long - cycle, but the short - to - medium term is still based on fundamentals. Recently, the group farms and second - fattening groups have reduced their slaughter, and some second - fattening operations have gradually replenished for fattening. The futures market shows signs of a bottom. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve, supporting prices during the peak season [2] 3) Content Summaries Market Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the average slaughter price of live pigs in China, the seasonal number of live pig warehouse receipts, the impact of breeding sow inventory on live pig prices 10 months later, the comparison between national and Henan live pig prices, the change in live pig inventory structure, the average slaughter weight of live pigs, the PSY production index of breeding sows, the frozen pork storage rate, the average price of culled sows, the culling volume of breeding sows, the seasonal profit of purchasing pigs for fattening, the seasonal self - breeding profit of pigs, the seasonal slaughter gross profit of pigs, the operating rate of key slaughter enterprises, and the seasonal average price of piglets [3][4][5][7][10][11][13]

Core Insights - The company announced an increase in pig sales for October 2025, with a total of 619,200 pigs sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.49% and a month-on-month increase of 50.69% [1] - The total sales revenue for October 2025 was 828 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 17.91% but a month-on-month increase of 29.49% [1] - The growth in pig sales is attributed to the "company + farmer" breeding model, which has led to an increase in the number of pigs marketed [1] Sales Performance - For the period from January to October 2025, cumulative pig sales reached 4,381,400 pigs, a year-on-year increase of 33.22% compared to 3,288,800 pigs sold in the same period of 2024 [1] - The cumulative sales revenue for this period was 7.223 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.99% [1] - The breakdown of sales includes 4,192,100 market pigs and 189,300 piglets for 2025, compared to 2,945,400 market pigs and 343,400 piglets for 2024 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Bullish [3] - Strategy: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise in spot pig prices is driven by the imbalance of inventory structure, not a fundamental change in the supply - demand fundamentals. The overall supply of the market remains loose, and the rebound of pig prices is limited. The growth rate of pig supply is still high, while the demand is not strong enough. It is recommended to short the January contract on rallies for the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [3]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - 1.1 Pig Spot Price: The report shows the Henan pig price and its seasonal chart, with data from Wind [5][6][7]. - 1.2 Pig Basis: It presents the basis of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [9][10][11]. - 1.3 Pig Price Spread: The report shows the price spreads of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [13][15]. - 1.4 Futures Institutional Net Positions: It shows the long - to - short ratios of institutional positions in the January and March pig futures contracts, with data from Wind [17][18][19]. Supply Analysis - 2.1 Breeding Sows Inventory: The inventory of breeding sows is presented, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [21][23]. - 2.2 Piglet Supply: It shows the Henan piglet - to - pig price ratio and the number of newborn piglets, with data from MySteel [25]. - 2.3 Pig Slaughter: The average weight of commercial pigs sold by sample enterprises and the slaughter structure are shown, with data from MySteel [28][30]. - 2.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread: The daily and seasonal charts of the standard - fat price spread are presented, with data from MySteel [31][32][33]. Demand Analysis - 3.1 Pig Slaughter: The daily slaughter rate of key pig slaughtering enterprises and the seasonal chart of slaughter gross profit are shown, with data from MySteel [34][35][36]. - 3.2 Frozen Product Inventory: The frozen product storage rate and fresh - meat efficiency of key slaughtering enterprises, as well as the seasonal chart of the frozen product storage rate, are presented [37][38]. - 3.3 Substitutes: The seasonal charts of the price ratios between pork and eggs, and between pork and vegetables are shown, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [40][41][42]. Profit Analysis - 4.1 Breeding Profit: The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets are presented, as well as the seasonal chart of self - breeding and self - raising profits [43][44]. - 4.2 Pig - to - Grain Price Ratio: The pig - to - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart are shown [45][46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.78 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 35.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.249 billion yuan, down 55.98% year-on-year [1]. - The company has improved production efficiency and reduced costs, with a total cost of sales for pigs in Q3 at 11.7 yuan/kg, showing a steady decline in costs over the months [1]. - The company has responded to national capacity control measures by reducing the number of breeding sows to 3.305 million, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.7% [1]. - The slaughtering business has shown significant improvement, with 19.16 million pigs slaughtered in the first nine months of 2025, a 140% increase year-on-year, and achieving profitability in Q3 [2]. - The company is exploring overseas market opportunities for future growth, indicating a strategic direction for capital expenditure [2]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 15.667 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, followed by an increase of 124.9% in 2026, and a decrease of 25% in 2027 [2]. - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 17.5x, with a projected EPS of 2.87 yuan [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to be 137.87 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight decrease from the previous year [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady expansion in pig production, with a significant increase in the number of pigs sold, reaching 2.9342 million heads in the first three quarters of 2025, a 50.76% increase year-on-year. However, the profitability has been under pressure due to falling pig prices, resulting in a 58.69% decline in net profit to 107 million yuan [1][8] - The company maintains a leading position in cost control within the industry, with a breeding and management strategy that has improved production metrics. The average pig sales price in Q3 2025 was approximately 13.3 yuan/kg, while the total breeding cost was close to 13.6 yuan/kg [2][3] - The gross margin has fluctuated with the pig price cycle, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.4 percentage points to 10.44% for Q1-Q3 2025. The net profit margin also decreased by 4.72 percentage points to 2.00% [3][13] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 42.57% to 5.639 billion yuan, while the net profit decreased by 58.69% to 107 million yuan. In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.922 billion yuan, up 11.57% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 124.32% to -740,000 yuan [1][8] - The company has a projected revenue growth of 10.3% for 2025, with expected revenues of 6.703 billion yuan. The net profit is forecasted to be 487 million yuan, reflecting a 6.1% decrease compared to the previous year [4][21] - The operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 increased by 65.8% to 970 million yuan, accounting for 17.21% of total revenue, indicating improved asset turnover [18] Cost Management - The company has established a strategic partnership with Pipestone for pig farming consulting services, which includes site design, genetic review, and technical support, further solidifying its cost leadership position [2] - The company has reported a feed-to-meat ratio of approximately 2.58 and a pig survival rate that is above industry standards, indicating effective breeding practices [2] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue improving breeding efficiency and reducing costs while integrating quality production resources to enhance capacity utilization [3][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 0.95 yuan, with projected PE ratios of 19.2 for 2025, 34.2 for 2026, and 51.8 for 2027 [21][24]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, is committed to focusing on its core business of pig farming and is implementing strategies to enhance operational efficiency and quality through advanced technology and digital upgrades [1] Group 1 - The company is continuously focusing on the pig farming business as its main operational direction [1] - The company is planning and arranging the necessary funds for its operations in a reasonable manner [1] - The company aims to improve breeding efficiency and operational quality through multiple dimensions, including advanced technology research and promotion [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4][7]. Core Views - The company has shown growth in pig production, with a significant increase in the number of pigs sold and a focus on reducing breeding costs [4][5]. - Despite a decline in net profit due to market price fluctuations, the company is implementing various cost-control measures to enhance efficiency [5][6]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 161 million, 444 million, and 873 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.32, 0.87, and 1.71 yuan [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.57%, while net profit was 107 million yuan, down 58.69% [5]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 1.922 billion yuan, an 11.57% increase year-on-year, but a net loss of 74 million yuan, reflecting a 124.32% decline [5]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at approximately 66.62% at the end of the third quarter [5]. Production and Sales Data - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 1.91 million pigs, a 74.47% increase year-on-year, generating sales revenue of 3.432 billion yuan [6]. - In the third quarter, the company sold approximately 1.02 million pigs, with sales revenue of 1.722 billion yuan [6]. - The total pig sales revenue for the first three quarters reached 5.153 billion yuan, with a total of 2.93 million pigs sold [6]. Future Projections - The company expects to achieve revenues of 7.744 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.4% [9]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 161 million yuan, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [9][11]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability, with a net profit margin projected to reach 8.2% by 2027 [9][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company expects to achieve a total pig output of approximately 300,000 heads in 2025, with a complete cost of 12.5 yuan per kilogram as of September [2][4] - The company's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 was 3.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 462 million yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has implemented cost control measures that have successfully reduced the complete cost of pig farming from 13.0 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of 2025 to 12.5 yuan per kilogram by September [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company sold 2.11 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with 1.82 million of those being market pigs, accounting for 86% of total output [4][5] - The company's quarterly revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, 1.33 billion yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 36%, a decline of 6.1%, and a decline of 28.9% respectively [3] - The company’s net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 was 229 million yuan, 159 million yuan, and 74 million yuan [3] Future Projections - The company anticipates pig output of 300,000 heads for 2025, with projections of 300,000 heads for 2026 and 315,000 heads for 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +32%, 0%, and +5% respectively [7] - Expected main business revenue for 2025-2027 is projected at 5.419 billion yuan, 5.426 billion yuan, and 5.712 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 482 million yuan, 542 million yuan, and 669 million yuan [7][9]

Market Overview - In October 2025, the equity market experienced an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points and reaching a historical high of 3950.3, marking a monthly increase of 0.42% [5] - The bond market remained volatile, influenced by expectations of further monetary policy easing and high risk aversion due to the uncertain Sino-US trade situation. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 0.20 basis points to 1.849% by October 24 [5] - The convertible bond market saw a stabilization after an initial valuation compression, with the average price of convertible bonds decreasing by 3.00% to 114.34 yuan, and the median price dropping by 0.48% to 131.01 yuan [5][11] Convertible Bond Strategy - The report suggests a balanced approach to convertible bond investments, emphasizing the need for a wave-like strategy in asset management. It highlights the importance of selecting bonds with high potential for price appreciation while managing risks associated with high premiums and frequent redemptions [17] - The report identifies sectors with high win rates and high odds for convertible bond investments, including lithium batteries, semiconductor equipment, and agricultural chemicals, which are expected to benefit from recent price increases and market demand [17] "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" Portfolio - The report lists the "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" for November 2025, highlighting their respective industries, credit ratings, and reasons for recommendation. For instance, the "Xingye Convertible Bond" is recommended due to its attractive dividend yield of over 5% [19][20] - The portfolio includes bonds from various sectors such as banking, battery manufacturing, medical devices, and semiconductor industries, showcasing a diverse investment strategy aimed at capturing growth across different market segments [19] Sector-Specific Insights - The banking sector, represented by Xingye Bank, is noted for its stable revenue growth and strong asset quality, with a projected dividend yield of 4.6% [20][21] - The battery sector, particularly represented by Yiwei Lithium Energy, is experiencing rapid growth in energy storage battery shipments, positioning the company as a leader in the market [31][34] - The medical device sector, led by Yirui Technology, is benefiting from increased demand for digital X-ray detectors and core component breakthroughs, indicating strong growth potential [43][46] - The semiconductor sector, represented by Weier Technology, is capitalizing on the recovery in consumer electronics demand and the expansion of automotive electronics, leading to significant revenue growth [68][71] - The communication sector, represented by Zhongbei Communication, is seeing explosive growth in its intelligent computing business, driven by the increasing demand for AI-related services [80][83] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of a strategic approach to investing in convertible bonds, focusing on sectors with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions. The "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" portfolio serves as a guide for investors looking to capitalize on these opportunities while managing associated risks [17][19]