神农集团（605296）(605296.SH)披露2025年7月养殖业务主要经营数据，于2025年7月份，公司销售生 猪17.47万头，销售收入3.27亿元。其中向集团内部屠宰企业销售生猪4.05万头。2025年7月份，公司商 品猪价格呈现上涨趋势，商品猪销售均价14.73元/公斤，比2025年6月份上涨2.65%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 58.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year [1] - The feed sales volume reached 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, nearing the annual target for 2025 [1] - The company is on track to meet its 2030 sales target of 51.5 million tons, with significant growth in various feed segments, including a 43% increase in pig feed sales [1] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with feed sales outside China growing over 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company expects net profits of 4.963 billion yuan, 5.692 billion yuan, and 6.714 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2%, 14.7%, and 18.0% [2] - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 19 times [2] - Financial indicators show a revenue forecast of 129.547 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 13% year-on-year [4] Business Segments - The seedling business generated 770 million yuan in revenue, while the animal health business achieved 460 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is focusing on building capabilities in pig farming and innovating a light-asset model, which is expected to yield considerable profits [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference may strengthen, which will support pig prices. The price of the 2509 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted this week. On July 18, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, down from 455 yuan/ton on July 11 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The contract spreads fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased slightly while the price decreased [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price differences were relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted overall. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it will weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat strengthened. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week. Attention should be paid to whether the weight reduction can continue [26]. 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in Sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and My steel data showed that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was an increase of 2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered live pigs in December this year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets and 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In June 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, basically the same as the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of pigs continued to decline by 0.1 yuan/kg today, mainly due to limited slaughter by the farming side and limited downstream acceptance. However, the slaughter weight has not changed significantly. From the perspective of slaughter volume, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month from June to July, mainly supported by the slowdown of winter piglet losses. The group factories stopped large-scale weight reduction this month, and the weight of散户 has been relatively stable. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30%. In terms of replenishment, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets in June was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment. Recently, the spot price has declined. Today, the opening of the 09 contract showed a premium structure with the spot price in Sichuan, and the futures price has declined significantly recently. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price will lack upward momentum under the background of weak consumption and no effective decline in slaughter weight. In the medium term, the supply will return to a loose state after the inventory is repaired in August. Pay attention to the inflection point of the spot price after August [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Price Data in Different Regions - The pig prices in various regions across the country showed a downward trend on July 17, 2025. For example, the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Hunan, it was 13.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan. The national average price was 13.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [2] Futures Contract Data - The prices of LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 futures contracts all increased on July 17, 2025. The price of LH2509 was 14,060 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan; LH2511 was 13,535 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,750 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was 525 yuan on July 17, an increase of 5 yuan, and the spread between LH11 - 01 was -215 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Slaughter and Weight Data - From June to July, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month. The average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [2] Piglet Replenishment Data - In June, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment [2]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the current reporting period, a significant increase of 924.6% to 973.39% compared to the same period last year, which reported a net profit of 1.025 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 10.2 billion and 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,129.97% to 1,190.26% from last year's 829 million yuan [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of 10.6 billion to 11.1 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, marking an increase of 882.95% to 929.31% from the previous year's 1.078 billion yuan [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 1.90 yuan and 2.00 yuan, compared to 0.15 yuan per share last year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The significant improvement in the company's operating performance for the first half of 2025 is primarily attributed to an increase in the number of pigs sold compared to the same period last year, leading to higher revenue [1] - Additionally, the cost of pig farming has decreased compared to the previous year, further contributing to the enhanced profitability [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of live pigs decreased today. After the previous continuous price increase, market supply increased, and the price showed a downward trend. Although the recent supply pressure has decreased, as the price rises, the supply has improved, and the upward momentum of the price is limited. Secondary fattening is currently on the sidelines, and there is still supply pressure in the future, so it is difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4]. - The live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend today. After the previous rapid increase in the futures price, market optimism decreased, and the futures price showed a phased decline. As the subsequent spot price is expected to weaken, the futures price is also expected to be affected. In terms of the price spread between futures contracts, the market lacks obvious driving factors in the short - term and is expected to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - **Spot Price**: The average price of live pigs today was 14.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.63 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions all decreased, with the largest decrease in Hunan (-0.99 yuan/kg) and the smallest in Heilongjiang (-0.07 yuan/kg) [4]. - **Futures Price**: Among the futures contracts, LH07 increased by 220 yuan to 14070 yuan, LH03 increased by 20 yuan to 12995 yuan, and LH05 increased by 55 yuan to 13185 yuan. LH09 decreased by 60 yuan to 14245 yuan, and LH11 decreased by 35 yuan to 13685 yuan [4]. - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: The price of piglets was 431 yuan, and the price of sows was 1621 yuan, both remaining unchanged from last week [4]. - **Breeding Profit**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan, an increase of 69.48 yuan; the profit for purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan, an increase of 105.45 yuan [4]. - **Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume was 130828 heads, a decrease of 585 heads from yesterday [4]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread between different - sized pigs changed. For example, the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased by 0.03 yuan, while the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.09 yuan. Among the futures contracts, the spread of LH7 - 9 increased by 280 yuan, and the spread of LH9 - 1 decreased by 75 yuan [4]. 3.2 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: It is mainly expected to operate in a high - level volatile manner. - **Arbitrage**: Long LH09 and short LH01. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply decreases due to farmers' price - holding and reduced weight of pigs for sale at the beginning of the month, but there is a risk of delayed supply in the third quarter as sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle. High temperatures and school holidays suppress pork demand, resulting in slow terminal sales and a decline in slaughterhouse operating rates. The entry of second - fattening investors boosts the near - month price of live pigs. Continuous attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the entry rhythm of second - fattening investors [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 79,652 lots, down 4,273 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 450 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,158 lots, down 2,550 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 15,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 17,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main live - pig contract is 1,030 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly live - pig inventory is 41.731 million heads, down 1.012 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4.042 million heads, up 4,000 heads. The monthly CPI year - on - year change is - 0.1%, unchanged. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,436.86 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 950.52, up 1.21. The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981,000 tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit for purchasing piglets is - 131.71 yuan/head, up 55.08 yuan; for self - breeding and self - raising is 50.25 yuan/head, up 30.85 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The weekly average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises is 32.16 million heads, up 1.39 million heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the planned live - pig output of key provincial breeding enterprises in July 2025 is 13.005 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. At the beginning of the month, farmers hold prices and reduce the volume of pigs for sale, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreases, resulting in a short - term reduction in supply. The sow production capacity in the third quarter is in an increasing cycle, with a risk of delayed supply [2]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of He Feng Food Co., Ltd. at AA, with a stable outlook, indicating strong competitive advantages in scale, brand, and technology [1][3]. Company Overview - He Feng Food Co., Ltd. operates in the agricultural and animal husbandry industry, primarily engaged in feed and feed raw material trading, poultry business, and pig farming [8][17]. - The company has a total asset of 154.46 billion yuan and equity of 76.91 billion yuan as of March 2025 [8][17]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 325.45 billion yuan, with a profit of 3.94 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [8][17]. - The company reported a significant increase in gross profit margin due to a decrease in costs, leading to an overall profit in 2024 [3][5]. - As of March 2025, the company’s cash assets totaled 13.24 billion yuan, with a current ratio of 152.66% [6][8]. Debt and Credit Rating - The company’s debt structure shows a slight increase in long-term debt, but overall debt pressure remains manageable [3][5]. - The rating agency has noted that the company’s debt repayment capacity indicators are performing well, with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.55 times as of March 2025 [6][8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - He Feng Food maintains a leading position in the Northeast region of China’s agricultural industry, with strong brand recognition and technological capabilities [5][17]. - The company has been recognized as a key agricultural enterprise and has received multiple awards for its technological advancements [17]. Recent Developments - The company has acquired stakes in 13 subsidiaries to enhance its poultry business, which will be consolidated into its financial statements starting April 2025 [3][19]. - The actual controller's shareholding has decreased to 32.16% following the retirement of some shareholders, but the company remains under stable control [3][19]. Industry Analysis - The feed industry is experiencing fluctuations in raw material prices, with a focus on cost control and efficiency improvements [14][15]. - The overall market for livestock and poultry is recovering, with expectations of stable raw material costs and a slight increase in supply [14][15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the past week, the live hog spot market rebounded steadily, the futures market was volatile and strong, the basis weakened, and the spread between LH9 and LH11 was volatile and strong. The spot market was supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts, the average weight continued to decline, and the second - fattening significantly shrank, providing strong support for the peak - season contract LH09. Fundamentally, the obvious month - on - month increase in the number of fertile sows in April and May continued to suppress the LH2603 contract. In the short and medium term, the monthly month - on - month increase in the number of sample piglets born from January to May means that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited. It is expected that the spot market will be volatile and weak in the short term. For futures, the LH09 contract corresponds to the peak consumption season. Although the theoretical slaughter volume will still increase, due to policy - guided weight reduction and restricted sales of second - fattened hogs, the average slaughter weight may be lower, partially alleviating the pressure of the slaughter volume. The futures market has certain support for now. The operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude, and continue to pay attention to the rhythm of weight reduction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market rebounded steadily last week, with the futures market being volatile and strong. The basis weakened, and the LH9 - LH11 spread was volatile and strong. The spot was supported by farmers' resistance, and the decline in average weight and reduction in second - fattening supported the LH09 contract. The increase in fertile sows in April and May suppressed the LH2603 contract. The increase in piglet numbers from January to May indicates growing slaughter volume. Consumption is in the off - season, and the spot is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The LH09 contract has support due to potential weight reduction, and the operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude [7]. 2. Key Data and Charts - **Live Hog Futures Market**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Spot Market**: The spot market rebounded steadily last week, with limited demand support due to the off - season [7]. - **Live Hog Spot: Basis after Regional and Weight Adjustment**: On June 19, 2025, with the benchmark contract LH2507 at 13255, data on standard pig prices, weight ranges, regional premiums and discounts, and basis in different provinces are presented. For example, in Henan, the standard pig price was 14.38, and the basis was 1125 [25]. - **Live Hog Spot: Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Spot: Regional Price Difference**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Change in Fertile Sows**: The number of fertile sows increased significantly month - on - month in April and May, which continued to suppress the LH2603 contract [7]. - **Change in Piglets**: The number of sample piglets born from January to May increased month - on - month, indicating that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow later [7]. - **Verification of Live Hog Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Live Hog Slaughter Situation**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Pork Consumption Situation**: Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited [7]. - **Frozen Meat Market Dynamics**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Cost and Profit**: No specific content provided in the given text. - **Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations**: In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not started for the third - level early warning, considered for the second - level, and started for the first - level. For excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are started for the second - level early warning and increased for the first - level. In case of special situations like major animal disease risks, after the first - level early warning, releases are mainly concentrated in key periods [73]. - **Multi - caliber Comparison**: No specific content provided in the given text.

Group 1 - The livestock sector continues to rebound, with the Livestock ETF (159865) rising over 1.3% and experiencing net inflows for four consecutive days [1] - According to Everbright Securities, the industry capacity cycle for pig farming has bottomed out, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics [1] - Recent policy initiatives are accelerating the industry's efforts to reduce inventory, which is expected to realign the supply-demand relationship, potentially leading to a long-term profit uptrend after inventory reduction concludes [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (code: 930707), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary drug production [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers the entire livestock industry chain, including pig and chicken farming as well as related support services, demonstrating strong industry representation [1] - The recovery in pig inventory levels is boosting demand for feed and animal health products, with performance gradually improving [1]