Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in live pig futures prices is attributed to a tightening supply and positive market sentiment for the upcoming peak season in August and September, with prices rebounding over 5% from previous lows [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a tightening supply due to factors such as reduced large pig availability and increased frozen product inventory, which supports pig prices [1]. - Analysts note that the sentiment among small-scale farmers is to hold onto pigs in anticipation of higher prices in late July to August, leading to a decrease in supply [1][2]. - The overall pig supply is expected to increase gradually throughout the year, but short-term supply may be limited due to factors like piglet diarrhea outbreaks [4][5]. Price Trends - The average price of piglets has dropped to 36.91 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.8% week-on-week and 16.7% year-on-year, indicating a cautious market [2]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has fallen from 670 yuan per head in mid-April to 530 yuan currently, primarily due to high costs and low seasonal demand [3]. Profitability and Cost Factors - Current breeding profits are generally positive, although there is a structural divide where some farmers face losses due to high costs of purchased piglets [2][4]. - Rising costs of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal may impact cash flow for farmers in the latter half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant increase in piglet supply in September and October, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4]. - The current price increase is seen as temporary, with expectations that the market will transition from inventory accumulation to depletion, potentially leading to price declines in the fourth quarter [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week after the May Day holiday, and the market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to be in a short - term volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group's slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation also shows some bullish factors, but the price on the disk is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, and the main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. The expected price range of the LH2509 contract is around 13,400 - 13,800 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - After the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm for domestic pig slaughter decreased, and the pig price may return to a weak state after a slight pre - holiday rebound. The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation, and the overall consumer enthusiasm has declined after the holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3.2 Recent News - The additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered the off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is in a short - term volatile and weak pattern, with the futures following the same trend [10]. - The demand for pork has weakened in the short term after the May Day holiday. The spot price of pigs is volatile and weak due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline space may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic pig farming profit remains at a low level, with short - term profits still available. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is still good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of pigs may be volatile and weak after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the short term. When it stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited further decline space of domestic pig spot prices [11]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - The report also provides data on pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from May 22 to May 30, including prices of different contracts and spot prices in different regions [12]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [8].

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/19 | | | 5/9 | 5/16 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪期货 | LH2507 | 13495 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | | | LH2509 | 13925 | 13660 | -265 | -1.9% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13625 | 13420 | -205 | -1.5% | | | 现货价格 | 全国 | 14.74 | 14.56 | -0.18 | -1.2% | | | | 河南 | 15.07 | 14.9 | -0.17 | -1.1% | 交割基准区域 | 数据来源&制图：文华财经、钢联、华金期货 | | | | 生猪周度汇总 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | ...

Report Information - Report Name: Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs [1] - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - In the short - term, the live pig market is relatively stable with a slight increase in demand, and the pig price will mainly show a consolidation trend. As the May Day holiday starts on Thursday this week, short - term operations are recommended [3] Section Summaries 1. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13,540, down 120 (-0.9%); LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 14,150, down 315 (-2.2%); LH2511 closed at 13,795, down 215 (-1.5%) [3][4] - Spot: The national average commodity pig出栏 price was 14.87 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (-0.2%); in Henan (the delivery benchmark area), it was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.4%) [3][4] 2. Inter - month Spreads, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spreads: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 610, down 195; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 355, up 100 [9] - Basis: The basis for July was 1530, up 60; for September, it was 920, up 255 [9] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 665, an increase of 440 [3][9] 3. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglets: The average price of weaned piglets was 523.81 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week. The market had stable rigid demand, and the price was supported [18] - Sows: The average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week. The domestic inventory of reproductive sows was expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [18] - Commodity Pigs: The inventory of commodity pigs in April was expected to continue to increase month - on - month due to capacity recovery [18] 4. Standard - Fat Pig Price Spread - National Average: The weekly average national standard - fat pig price spread was 0.01 yuan/kg. Secondary fattening groups continued to enter the market, but the demand for fat pigs weakened as the weather warmed up [24] - Key Markets: In key markets, the standard - fat pig price spread increased in most regions, such as 0.21 in Liaoning and 0.24 in Hebei [23] 5. Slaughter End - Slaughter Rate: The national average slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 27.19%, up 0.35 percentage points. Due to secondary fattening diverting some standard pig resources, slaughter enterprises increased prices to ensure the slaughter volume [27] - Fresh Sales Rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.1%, down 0.05 percentage points [27] - Cold Storage Rate: The cold storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, up 0.04 percentage points. Some regions had low fresh product sales and were forced to store in cold storage [27] 6. White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Markets - White - Striped Pork Price: The price of the top three grades of white - striped pork fluctuated [29] - Gross - White Price Spread: The gross - white price spread was 4.12 yuan/kg, down [3] 7. Profit and Cost - Self - Breeding and Self - Raising: The weekly average profit was 145.34 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week [35] - Purchasing Piglets: The weekly average profit was 58.80 yuan/head, down 1.39 yuan/head from last week. The increase in feed raw material prices squeezed the profit margins [35] 8. Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms had normal slaughter volumes, high slaughter weights, and concentrated slaughter by small - scale farmers, resulting in sufficient market supply [38] - Demand: Secondary fattening continued to enter the market, and the May Day holiday备货 supported short - term demand [38] - Cold Storage: Slaughter enterprises had low cold storage capacity, and the cold storage rate was expected to increase later [38] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The increase in import tariffs on US goods was short - term positive for pig prices [38] - Epidemic: There were sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions, and the southwest was about to enter the traditional epidemic - prone season [38] - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was relatively neutral due to the fluctuating pig prices [38]