Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations on August 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 3700 points for the first time since December 2021, but ultimately closed at 3666.44 points, down 0.46% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, reaching 22,792 billion yuan, an increase of 1,283 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The insurance sector showed strong performance, with China Pacific Insurance rising nearly 5%, and China Life and New China Life both increasing over 2% [2] - Digital currency concept stocks gained traction, with Hengbao Co. hitting the daily limit [2] - The robotics sector was also active, with Wolong Electric Drive reaching a historical high [2] - Conversely, the military industry sector faced adjustments, with Aerospace Changfeng hitting the daily limit down [2] Investment Insights - Institutions believe that the insurance sector is currently undervalued, presenting significant upward potential [2] - The securities sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting the capital market, with a favorable liquidity environment and improved investor confidence [2] - The digital currency sector is gaining national strategic importance, with expectations for the normalization of its use as regulatory frameworks improve [3] Future Market Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation, the current market resembles an "enhanced version of 2013," with expectations for better overall performance this year [4] - The market is anticipated to continue seeking upward momentum, with specific investment recommendations in sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and non-ferrous metals [4] - Dongguan Securities noted that the overall trend of the market remains strong, with increasing margin financing indicating rising market confidence [5] - The market is expected to maintain a positive trend, with potential for gradual index elevation supported by funding and fundamental recovery [6]

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided a framework for economic policies for the second half of the year and the next five years, focusing on the impacts on the real estate market, stock market, and commodity prices [1] - The absence of explicit mentions of "real estate" in the meeting's communiqué suggests a nuanced approach to housing market stability, indicating that while the government has not abandoned the goal of stabilizing housing prices, the current phase of the real estate cycle complicates policy implementation [5] - The stock market has shown a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 30% since last year, and the meeting emphasized the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets [7] Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - The meeting did not explicitly mention "timely interest rate cuts," which raises questions about the likelihood of further monetary easing; however, the context of improving economic indicators suggests that aggressive monetary policy may not be necessary at this time [3] - The shift from a "prudent" to a "moderately accommodative" monetary policy indicates a potential for interest rate cuts to lower financing costs, especially if external economic pressures increase [3] Commodity Prices and Supply Chain Dynamics - Recent rebounds in commodity prices are contingent on supply-demand dynamics, and the government's focus on regulating competition aims to prevent disorderly price increases without necessarily expanding demand [10] - The meeting highlighted the need for capacity governance in key industries, including steel and automotive, to optimize supply and eliminate excess capacity, which could influence commodity price trends [10][11] Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery - The meeting underscored the importance of fiscal policy in driving economic recovery, with a noted increase in macro leverage ratios, particularly in government sectors, indicating a reliance on government spending to stabilize the economy [14] - The government's capacity for further fiscal expansion remains significant compared to other economies, suggesting that proactive fiscal measures will be essential in countering economic contraction and boosting confidence [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the impact of the restoration of VAT on bond interest income for insurance companies is minimal, with the insurance sector benefiting indirectly from the stabilization of prices and long-term interest rates [4][5] - The brokerage sector has seen a rapid increase in margin financing, with a daily average trading volume of 2.22 trillion yuan in July, reflecting a 7.2% increase in financing balance compared to the beginning of the month [4] - The report emphasizes continued support for the brokerage sector, highlighting low valuations and significant institutional underweighting, with a focus on trading volume, stablecoins, and policy catalysts [4] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial - The report notes a 17% fluctuation in the non-bank financial sector compared to the CSI 300 index, with projections for future performance remaining positive [3] Brokerage Sector - The report highlights the rapid growth in margin financing, with a financing balance of 1,971 billion yuan as of July 31, marking a 7.2% increase [4] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting reiterated support for stabilizing the stock market, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market [4] - The report identifies three main lines of focus: retail-focused brokerages, leading brokerages with overseas business advantages, and financial technology-related stocks [4] Insurance Sector - The restoration of VAT on bond interest income is projected to have a minor impact on insurance companies' investment yields, with a calculated decrease of 3 basis points in investment returns [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of equity markets for the life insurance sector, with a focus on the transformation of participating insurance products [5] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - The report recommends a combination of stocks including Guotai Junan, Dongfang Securities, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, and others, indicating a diversified approach to investment opportunities [6][7]

Group 1 - The brokerage sector experienced a significant pullback on July 31, with 49 brokerage stocks declining, except for Tianfeng Securities, and notable drops in Haitou Shares and Bank of China Securities exceeding 3% [1] - The A-share leading brokerage ETF (512000) saw its intraday price drop by approximately 2%, currently down 1.45%, falling below the 10-day moving average [1] - According to Yinhe Securities, the policy goals of "stabilizing growth and the stock market" and "boosting the capital market" will continue to guide the future direction of the sector, supported by a moderately loose liquidity environment and improved investor confidence [2][3] Group 2 - As of July 30, 2025, the PB valuation of the CSI All Share Securities Company Index tracked by the brokerage ETF (512000) is 1.57 times, which is at a relatively low level within the past decade, indicating a high safety margin for investment [3] - The brokerage ETF (512000) encompasses 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages, while the remaining 40% includes smaller brokerages with high earnings elasticity [3]

Group 1 - The A500ETF by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 5.07% and a transaction volume of 699 million yuan, with an average daily transaction of 3.113 billion yuan over the past month [2] - As of July 30, 2025, the A500ETF has achieved a net value increase of 11.01% over the past six months, with the highest monthly return since inception being 3.55% and an average monthly return of 2.05% [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 index account for 20.67% of the index, with notable companies including Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance [2] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points for this year, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in US-China tariffs [2] - China's chief economist at China Galaxy Securities emphasizes that stabilizing the stock market is crucial for boosting confidence and stabilizing expectations, with a focus on structural efficiency and market-driven reforms [3] Group 3 - The top ten stocks in the CSI A500 index have shown varying performance, with Kweichow Moutai down by 1.55% and CATL down by 2.23%, reflecting the current market conditions [5] - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500ETF Jiashi through the A500ETF Jiashi linked fund (022454) for exposure to the top 500 A-share companies [5]

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided a framework for economic development over the next five years and set the stage for the second half of 2023's economic policies [1] - The absence of explicit mentions of "real estate" in the recent meeting indicates a shift in focus, although the need to stabilize the housing market remains critical [3] - The meeting emphasized maintaining liquidity and promoting a decline in comprehensive financing costs, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts in the future [2] Stock Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded over 30% since last year, indicating a positive trend in the stock market, which the meeting aims to consolidate [4][5] - The effectiveness of measures taken by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and other entities in stabilizing the stock market has been acknowledged, but further support from fundamental economic conditions is necessary for continued growth [5] Commodity Prices and Supply Chain Management - Recent rebounds in commodity prices are contingent on supply-demand dynamics, with the government focusing on regulating excessive competition rather than merely raising prices [6][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for capacity management in key industries, including photovoltaic, cement, and automotive sectors, to ensure sustainable growth [6] Macro Policy Adjustments - The macroeconomic policy has shifted towards increased investment in consumer spending and improving living standards, with a notable rise in government leverage [8] - The government's ability to implement counter-cyclical policies is crucial for boosting confidence and stimulating demand in the face of economic contraction [8]

7月30日午间开盘，A股三大指数红盘震荡。板块题材上，创新药、影视院线板块走高，电池、数字货 币、多元金融板块调整。截至14：02，跟踪中证A500指数的A500ETF基金（512050）走高后小幅回 调，持仓股华能国际触及涨停。卫星化学、包钢股份、科伦药业、张江高科等持仓股强势上涨，涨幅超 过5%。截至发稿，该ETF盘中成交额突破38亿元。 中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊表示，"稳股市"已成为提振信心、稳定预期的关键抓手，政策重心已转 向结构性增效，强调以深化改革释放市场内生动力，持续健全常态化的稳市机制安排，将为资本市场高 质量发展创造更加良好的环境。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，A500ETF基金（512050）持仓股华能国际公布了2025年半年度业绩，公司归属于上市公司股 东的净利润约92.62亿元，同比增长24.26%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for policy support to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% after a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [1][5]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target [5][7]. - The GDP deflator index in Q2 fell by 1.2%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, leading to a nominal GDP growth of only 3.9% [5][8]. - The growth was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy [7][8]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% in the first half, with significant growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and furniture [8][11]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8%, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [11][19]. - Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [11][19]. Export Dynamics - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [15][19]. - The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [15][19]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending and manufacturing investment in the second half [19][20]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on retail sales is expected to diminish in the latter half of the year due to lower funding and higher base effects from last year [19][20]. - Real estate sales and prices are showing signs of weakness, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% in the first half [23][24]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, given the strong economic foundation laid in the first half [27][28]. - Potential policy directions include optimizing existing programs like the "trade-in" initiative and addressing restrictions on consumer spending [29][30]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key area of focus, with ongoing projects and new financing tools being introduced to support technology and consumption [30][31]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates [34][35]. - The article suggests that the central bank may take a cautious approach to monetary easing, focusing on maintaining stability in the currency exchange rate [35][36]. Structural Issues - The article highlights that the main challenges facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output-related, emphasizing the need for a focus on domestic and international circulation [26][38].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 closed at 124,360 yuan/ton on July 24, 2025, and the nickel price showed an overall fluctuating upward trend this month. The market is currently in the stage of trading expectations, and it is expected that subsequent "anti - involution" supporting policies will continue to increase. If so, the market may continue to rise. It is predicted that the Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a fluctuating upward trend in the future [3][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, nickel showed an overall fluctuating upward trend. The nickel futures price was gradually repairing the gap caused by the tariff storm in early April. Due to weak demand, the overall market fluctuated with a slightly lower center. This month, it rose due to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable recovery trend. As of late July 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,277 tons, and LME inventory was 204,456 tons. As of July 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 6.2896 million tons [12][15]. - **Chinese nickel ore port inventory and imported Philippine nickel ore quantity**: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines shows seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic nickel price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak and fluctuating trend since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 121,300 yuan/ton in mid - July [20]. - **Nickel sulfate price**: As of July 24, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 27,830 yuan/ton [22]. - **Nickel iron import volume and price**: On July 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 930 yuan/nickel [28]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless steel price and position**: The stainless steel futures price is currently fluctuating at a low level, and the expected fluctuation range is 12,600 - 13,300 yuan/ton [31]. - **Stainless steel inventory**: According to data released by WIND, on July 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 477,100 tons and 179,200 tons respectively [33]. - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [37]. - **New - energy vehicle production**: The production of new - energy vehicles shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [40]. 3. Future Outlook - The Shanghai nickel market rebounded in mid - and early April, then declined due to weak fundamentals, and continued to fluctuate this month. Recently, due to the hot trading sentiment of industrial products, the Shanghai nickel price has risen. At the industrial level, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the changes in the spot premiums and discounts of each refined nickel are small. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated, and the current supply is relatively loose. The nickel - iron price remains weak, and many factories are in the red. The nickel sulfate price maintains a weak downward trend, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The demand for stainless steel is weak, the inventory reduction progress is slow, and the inventory pressure still exists. Whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data [42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the securities ETF, with a 2.53% increase and a six-day rising streak, driven by favorable policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting the capital market [1] - The China Galaxy Securities report indicates that the policy goals of "stabilizing growth and the stock market" and "boosting the capital market" will continue to shape the future direction of the sector, supported by a moderately loose liquidity environment and improved investor confidence [1] - As of July 18, the PB valuation of the securities sector stands at 1.39x, which is in the 22.60% percentile since 2010, suggesting a high safety margin and indicating that it is a suitable time for sector allocation [1] Group 2 - The securities ETF Southern closely tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, which reflects the overall performance of different industry companies within the index [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CITIC Securities, East Money, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others, indicating a diverse representation of major players in the securities industry [2] - The ETF provides a comprehensive analysis tool by categorizing the index samples into various industry levels, enhancing the investment decision-making process for investors [2]