研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5734 | -1 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 341231 | -1177 -718 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 29443 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -21386 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内) ...

【周三纽约原糖期货下跌，郑糖跟随走弱】周三，纽约原糖期货下跌，主力7月合约收低0.89%，至 16.75美分/磅。伦敦ICE白糖期货主力8月合约收高1.2%，至468.10美元/吨。巴西天气转好利于压榨生 产，令糖价承压走弱。伊朗核问题谈判进入关键期，对糖价影响有限。 昨日，郑糖主力合约跟随原糖 走弱。09合约收盘5730元/吨，下跌2元，或0.03%，增仓723张。国内产区现货价报价持平，昆明糖报价 5965元，南宁糖报价6135元。 今日郑糖跟随原糖回落，大投机空头继续增仓杀跌，产业席位减持空 单。连续下跌后，现货企稳，杀跌动能释放。若原糖无大跌行情，内盘可能止跌反弹。【巴西港口食糖 装运与出口数据有变化】巴西航运机构周四发布数据显示，截至6月4日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的 船只数量为90艘，与此前一周持平。港口等待装运的食糖数量为324.7万吨，较此前一周下降4%。 当周 等待出口的食糖总量中，高等级原糖数量为303.73万吨，较上一周下降3%。桑托斯港等待出口的食糖 数量较上周下降7%，帕拉纳瓜港下降11%。【巴西国家石油公司下调汽油价格】6月2日，巴西国家石 油公司宣布，从6月3日起，将向分销商出 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

期货热点追踪 印度泰国增产在即！糖厂利润遭挤压，糖价冲高即拐点？ 相关链接 ...

国际糖组织（ISO）预警全球糖市缺口将暴增至546万吨，为何糖价不涨反跌？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

国内产销进度偏快 郑糖走势强于原糖 研究员：黄莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 国际方面，新榨季巴西制糖比、产糖量均较去年同期有所增加，拖累盘面。考虑到巴西库存偏低，短期贸易流偏紧支撑国 际糖价。预计原糖整体维持震荡运行，后续还需关注巴西生产进度。 国内方面，产销速度偏快、去库前置。考虑到糖浆进口政策进一步收紧，产需缺口如何补足成为市场焦点，预计郑糖价格 将跟随补充缺口的糖源成本波动。此前广西干旱引起的市场担忧情绪发酵在近期降雨后有所降温，后续还需关注新榨季糖料生 长情况。 【逻辑分析】 原糖受巴西丰产预期影响走势偏弱，近期制糖比处于同期偏高水平，不过考虑到下方买盘支撑，预计原糖震荡运行。反观国 内，产销比同比偏高以及库存低位带动郑糖走势强于原糖，预计郑糖短期维持震荡运行。关注广西主产区天气情况。 【交易策略】 3. 期权：虚值比例价差期权。 (以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) GALAXY FUTURES 2 1. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, Brazil's new - year sugar production is下调. India's sugar production is expected to be less than 26 million tons, making exports difficult. Brazil's initial crushing progress has increased significantly year - on - year, and overall consumption lacks a boost [2][26]. - Domestically, the sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and inventory pressure is low. Droughts in major domestic producing areas have affected sugarcane growth. However, the previous opening of the domestic import window may lead to a significant increase in imports in May. Consumption is entering the off - season. Sugar prices mainly depend on later weather changes. If risks are magnified, sugar prices have upward momentum; if there is sufficient rainfall later, sugar prices may face pressure from the off - season and increased imports and may decline [2][26]. - The recommended operation is to conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][27]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. Affected by the negative news of the US tariff increase and the decline of the external market, Zhengzhou sugar followed the downward trend, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 5,856 yuan/ton on April 16. Then it rebounded due to weather disasters in major producing areas [5]. - In April, international sugar prices continued to fluctuate downward. Macro - events and strong production at the beginning of Brazil's sugar - crushing season put pressure on the market, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 17.36 cents/pound on April 16 [5]. 2. International Market Analysis 2.1 Brazil: Strong Production Start and Significantly Reduced Inventory - Brazil's sugar inventory in the first quarter of the year decreased by about 70% compared with the historical average. By the end of March, the inventory dropped to 2.61 million tons, a ten - year low, prompting sugar mills to increase sugar production [7]. - The sugar - making ratio in southern Brazil at the beginning of the crushing season was 43%, much higher than 33.5% in the same period last year and market expectations. The attractiveness of sugar production is high, and it is expected that Brazil has added some production capacity. Reduced rainfall is beneficial for the start of the crushing season, and supply data is expected to maintain a large year - on - year increase, continuously pressuring the market [7]. 2.2 India: Production Nearing End and High Domestic Sugar Prices - As of April 15, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, India had crushed 271 million tons of sugarcane and produced 25.425 million tons of sugar, with 37 sugar mills still in operation. In the same period of the previous season, 74 sugar mills were not yet finished, having crushed 307 million tons of sugarcane and produced 31.165 million tons of sugar. The average sugar - production rate was 9.37%, lower than 10.16% in the previous season [11]. - This season's sugar production is expected to be 25.9 million tons. With production below 26 million tons, exports may be restricted later. Supported by tightened domestic supply, domestic sugar prices in India remain above 19.5 cents/pound [11]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis 3.1 Domestic Production Nearing End and Inventory Declining - As of the end of March 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and all sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had stopped. The country produced 10.7479 million tons of sugar this season, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons or 12.27%. The cumulative sugar sales were 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.261 million tons or 26.64%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The industrial inventory as of March was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [14]. - In the short term, domestic supply pressure is very limited. Before the increase in imports, sugar mills are expected to maintain a price - holding attitude. Although there will be incremental supply later, it will also be the peak consumption season. Overall, the firm spot price this season will continue to support the futures market [14]. 3.2 Severe Drought in Guangxi and Attention to Later Weather - Since the beginning of 2025, Guangxi has experienced the most severe autumn - winter - spring continuous drought since 1961. As of April 21, 97.5% of the region's land was affected by meteorological drought, with 68.7% reaching the extreme drought level, affecting 52 counties (districts) in 11 cities. It has caused 405,000 people to be affected, 513,000 hectares of crops to be damaged, and direct economic losses of 210 million yuan [17]. - The drought has severely affected sugarcane production in Guangxi. During the critical period of spring - planted sugarcane emergence and ratoon sugarcane tillering from April to May, the continuous drought has led to a 30% - 50% decrease in the sugarcane emergence rate compared with normal years, and the survival rate of ratoon sugarcane in some areas is less than 50%. The drought has also weakened photosynthesis and reduced the sucrose accumulation rate, affecting the sugar - production rate. It is expected that Guangxi's sugarcane output in the 2024/25 season will decline significantly [18]. 3.3 Expected Import Surge in May and Tighter Syrup Control - In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. From January to March 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.05 million tons. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 million tons. The import contraction was greater than market expectations [23]. - In March 2025, China imported 132,800 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons. From January to March, the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 242,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,700 tons. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 881,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,200 tons [23]. - The import window has opened several times since January 21, March 6, and around April 15, 2025. It is highly likely that imports will significantly increase in May, with the total exceeding 1 million tons [24].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Monthly Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - From the fundamental situation of raw sugar, the bullish factors include the early harvest in India's main producing area of Maharashtra, the end of Brazil's 24/25 sugar - crushing season with decreasing exports later, and the appreciation of the Brazilian real (though its sustainability is to be observed). The bearish factor is India's 100 - million - ton sugar export, which the market has digested. After the digestion of previous bearish factors, bullish factors support the price rebound, and raw sugar is oscillating strongly [8]. - Raw sugar has some support for domestic sugar prices, but after the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, so the upward momentum of sugar prices is insufficient [8]. - The drought in Guangxi is notable. Mtian Technology's latest forecast is that the final sugarcane output in Guangxi in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be lower than last season's 5118 million tons, possibly even below 5000 million tons, and the sugar output may only increase by 20 - 30 million tons compared with last season's 618 million tons [8]. - Another influencing factor is the import policy of syrup and pre - mixed powder. Thailand may negotiate with the Chinese government, and there is a possibility of the import of this part being liberalized in the future [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market Review - In March, the raw sugar index replicated the February trend, rising and then falling. Technically, on the weekly chart, it rebounded under pressure from the 60 - week moving average, and on the monthly chart, it fell after rising to the middle Bollinger Band, with the same K - line pattern as in February. The Zhengzhou sugar index was significantly stronger than raw sugar, showing a continuous upward trend. Technically, on the weekly chart, it rebounded and broke through the 6000 mark and then the 60 - week moving average, and on the monthly chart, it broke through the middle Bollinger Band and reached the 40 - month moving average [14]. 4.2 Spot Market Conditions - In March, the spot price of sugar rebounded significantly. The spot price of Nanning sugar of Guangxi Nanhua Group rose from 6040 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6130 yuan/ton at the end, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan rose from 5905 yuan/ton to 5975 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price of processed sugar in Rizhao, Shandong rose from 6115 yuan/ton to 6210 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton. - In March, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus valid forecasts decreased. At the beginning of the month, there were 28325, and at the end of the month, it decreased to 27430. Among them, the registered warehouse receipts decreased from 24454 to 27410, and the valid forecasts decreased from 3871 to 20 [18]. 4.3 Futures Market Structure Analysis - In March, the futures and spot prices rose simultaneously, but the spot price increase was slightly slower than that of futures, causing the basis to shrink. The basis of the 2505 contract against the Nanning spot was 103 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 51 yuan/ton at the end. The basis of the 2509 contract was 230 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 152 yuan/ton at the end. - In March, the main 5 - month contract and the secondary main 9 - month contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose simultaneously. Speculative long - position funds shifted to the far - month contract, resulting in the 5 - month contract being weaker and the 9 - month contract being stronger. The spread between them was 127 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 101 yuan/ton at the end [21]. - In March, the inter - month spread between the London white sugar futures and the New York raw sugar futures' main contracts changed little. The inter - market spread in July - August was 112 US dollars/ton at the end of the month. The current spread is slightly profitable for raw sugar processing enterprises. As of March 25, the net long position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar reached 52042 contracts, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the total open interest in raw sugar futures decreased significantly to 898876 contracts [22]. 4.4 Production and Sales Situation - As of the end of February 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 971.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 176.82 million tons, or 22.25%. The single - month sugar production in February was 222.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3 million tons, and the February production was at a very high level compared with the same period in previous years [29]. - As of the end of February 2025, the national cumulative sugar sales in this sugar - making season were 475.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 97.31 million tons, or 25.75%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 48.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points. The single - month sugar sales in February were 101.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.52 million tons. The February sales volume was at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years, but it declined significantly month - on - month due to the post - Spring Festival consumption off - season [31]. - At the end of February 2025, the national sugar industrial inventory was 496.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.51 million tons, and it was at a relatively high level in the past five years [33]. 4.5 Import and Export Situation - In February 2025, the sugar import volume was 2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 47 million tons. As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar import volume in this sugar - making season was 154 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 151 million tons. - From January to February, the total import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 10.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.91 million tons. As of the end of February in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the total import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 74.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.48 million tons. After the national policy tightened, the import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased significantly but did not reach zero [37]. - In March, both the domestic and foreign markets showed an upward trend, but in the second half of the month, raw sugar declined while Zhengzhou sugar remained strong. At the beginning of March, the processing profit of Brazilian quota - free raw sugar was around 752 yuan/ton, and the processing profit of out - of - quota raw sugar was around - 721 yuan/ton. At the end of March, the processing profit of Brazilian quota - free raw sugar was 967 yuan/ton, and the processing profit of out - of - quota raw sugar was about - 465 yuan/ton [37][38]. 4.6 Overseas Main Producing Countries' Production Situation - According to the data of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), in the first half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 182.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.81%; the sugar production was 5.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.1%; the ethanol production increased by 20.43% year - on - year to 4.42 billion liters. Sugar mills used 30.12% of the sugarcane for sugar production, compared with 27.59% in the same period of the previous season. As of March 16 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region was 6.17285 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%; the cumulative sugar production was 3998.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34%; the cumulative ethanol production was 344.24 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 4.11%; sugar mills used 48.09% of the sugarcane for sugar production, compared with 48.96% in the same period of the previous season. In the first half of March, 19 new factories started crushing, with a total of 37 factories in operation (including 22 sugarcane processing factories, 10 corn ethanol production factories, and 5 flexible factories), compared with 41 in the same period last year [45]. - The industry intelligence director of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) said that sugar mills began to resume crushing operations in March. At least 19 more sugar mills will start crushing in the second half of the month, but this plan may be adjusted according to the climate and operating conditions in each sugarcane - producing area [46]. - Recently, the port logistics in Brazil has gradually eased. As of the week of March 5, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 39, compared with 43 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 127.2 million tons, compared with 122.74 million tons in the previous week. Among the total sugar waiting for export in that week, the quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 113.85 million tons. According to the data released by Williams, the quantity of sugar waiting for export at Santos Port was 53.51 million tons, and at Paranaguá Port was 37.81 million tons [48]. - According to the data of the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of March 31, 2025, in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 2476.1 million tons. Currently, 95 sugar mills are still in operation, and production in the main sugar - producing states continues. The cumulative sugar production in Uttar Pradesh was 875 million tons, and 48 sugar mills are still in operation. Due to the increase in sugarcane yield per unit area and supply, these sugar mills are expected to operate until mid - to - late April 2025. In addition, according to the data of ISMA, the sugar yield rate improved in the second half of the season, leading to an increase in sugar production. Among the 200 sugar mills in Maharashtra, only 6 have not finished harvesting, and the cumulative sugar production is 800.06 million tons. The sugar production in Karnataka is 395.5 million tons, and only two sugar mills have not finished harvesting [49]. 4.7 Exchange Rate Factors - In March, the US dollar index declined significantly. The exchange rates of the Brazilian real and the Thai baht against the US dollar appreciated. At the end of the month, the US dollar - to - real exchange rate was 5.7416, compared with 5.7908 at the beginning of the month; the US dollar - to - baht exchange rate was 33.6956 at the end of the month, compared with 33.9856 at the beginning of the month [54]. 4.8 Future Market Forecast - From the fundamental situation of raw sugar, the bullish factor of India's production cut has been fully digested by the market, but the raw sugar price still followed the rising - then - falling trend in February. The market is hesitant to push up the price mainly because the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil is approaching. Although the previous drought may have affected the output, there has been some rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil recently, and the possibility of increased production suppresses the raw sugar price. The future new - season sugar - crushing situation in Brazil needs to be observed [55]. - For the domestic sugar market, according to the February production and sales data, both sugar production and sales increased significantly, and the industrial inventory is at a relatively high level. The downstream food and beverage industry is in poor operating condition and is resistant to sugar price increases. The import volume in the first two months of the year dropped sharply, and the import policy for syrup and pre - mixed powder was confirmed to be tightened again, leaving sales space for domestic sugar. Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than raw sugar. If there is no obvious bearish pressure from Brazil, Zhengzhou sugar may continue to strengthen [55].