当地时间12月2日，Domtar宣布将永久关闭其位于加拿大BC省狮牌(Crofton)工厂。该决定将使Domtar的纸浆年产量减少约38万吨NBSK针叶浆；芬 林集团约策诺(Joutseno)浆厂自今年6月停产以来，将于2025年12月8日(星期一)正式复产。 纸浆国外市场，加拿大狮牌工厂永久关闭，将减少约38万吨针叶浆产量，部分品牌仓单将于年底注销，供应预期有所收紧，下游文化纸部分出版 订单供货中，市场需求略有改善，纸企毛利润有所回升，期货盘面近期呈区间震荡反弹走势。 山东博汇纸业（600966）股份有限公司发布关于开展期货和衍生品交易的公告，其中提到，公司开展商品期货套期保值业务的品种限于公司及子 公司生产经营相关的原材料品种或产成品，包括纸浆、胶版印刷纸、烧碱等。 国投安信期货： 消息面 机构观点 截至2025年12月4日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量为210.1万吨，较上期去库7.1万吨，环比下降3.3%，库存量在本周期继续呈现小幅去库的走 势，样本港口库存已经连续两周呈现去库走势。 正信期货： 国内港口库存仍在高位，供给偏宽松的局面仍在延续，纸浆需求延续偏弱的情况，下游采购积极性不高。纸浆跌至前低附近 ...

| 需求端：近期木浆用纸集中发布涨价函，目前仅有白卡纸落实情况较好，双胶纸再次集中发布涨价函，关注落实情况。 | | --- | | 库存端：截至2025年11月27日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量:217.2万吨，较上期去库0.1万吨，环比下降0.05%，库 | | 存量在本周期整体变动不大，趋势呈现小幅去库的走势。 | | 策略:加拿大浆厂出现减产情况，纸浆供给端出现利多因素，同时暂无新仓单注册,近月合约交割资源偏紧，纸浆期货 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年12月3日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月3日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5458 | 2.44% | 4. 80% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5450 | 0.00% | 0. 93% | ...

研究所 延续下跌，进口成本端仍有支撑 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年11月28日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2601延续下跌，跌势略有放缓。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至11月27日，进口针叶浆周均价5464元/吨，周度环比下跌1.85%，由涨转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4390元/吨，周度环比下跌 0.05%，由涨转跌。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：1-10月纸浆累计进口量增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国进口纸浆261.8万吨，进口金额为1531.7百万美元，平均单价为585.06美元/吨。1月至10月 累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加4.8%、-2 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Pulp [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,218 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,184 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.65%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 6,400 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 5,480 - 5,500 yuan/ton [7] - The ex - factory price of imported wood pulp in November was unclear, with more rumors of price increases. Market players still had a wait - and - see attitude. In October, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, coniferous pulp by 7.1%, and broadleaf pulp by 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. European wood pulp consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of November 20, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.0104 million tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week [8] - Downstream base paper prices had limited increases, with most remaining stable. The price increase of white cardboard slowed down. Paper mills faced processing pressure, had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials, and poor restocking intentions. Supply pressure showed signs of weakening, but downstream profit margins were insufficient, leading to poor cost transmission. Pulp prices fell under pressure at high levels and were expected to fluctuate in a wide range at low levels [8] Group 3: Industry News - A Russian company expressed its willingness to invest in Indonesia's pulp and paper industry. On November 20, 2025, the CEO of Indonesia's Dana Tarra Group met with Russia's Sistema Group. The Indonesian government was ready to promote cooperation between the two sides by matching potential Russian investors with suitable local enterprises. The meeting was in the early stage, and potential investment amounts had not been discussed. Relevant license approvals and technical evaluations were in progress [9]

021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

上期所计划 2025 年中暂停布针品牌针叶浆入库，现有约 22 万吨布针 仓单将在 2025 年底注销 15 万吨，预计 2026 年交割量大幅减少，盘面 价格将锚定更高价品牌，利好高品质纸浆。 近期纸浆期货价格回落，主因实际需求未明显改善，针叶浆港口库存增 加，贸易商套期保值操作加剧现货市场流动性紧张，短期内纸浆市场预 计维持偏弱格局，需关注现货市场成交情况。 文化纸（双胶纸）市场受纸浆期货回调、招标价格低于预期及部分品牌 市价松动影响下跌，但头部企业发布涨价函，盘面或超跌修复，2026 年文化用纸市场预计处于周期低位，静待反弹。 2026 年纸浆行业供应端压力或减小，新增产能约 200 万吨，但终端消 费疲软，需关注投机需求和真实消费传导，港口库存压力较大，上半年 投机需求或不强劲，对国内纸浆期货偏利空。 纸张消费增量主要驱动力为白卡纸和生活用纸，文化用纸增量不明显， 市场大格局或维持区间震荡，新增产能减弱，港口库存较高，文化用纸 对纸浆消费提振有限。 Q&A 纸浆及造纸行业展望 20251124 摘要 近期纸浆期货市场的主要变化和原因是什么？ 最近文化纸（双胶纸）市场从 4,300 元/吨跌至 4,10 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pulp futures prices is expected to be volatile or weakly volatile, with the price center slightly shifting downwards. Attention should be paid to the impacts brought by changes in supply and demand [2][3]. - In the short - term trading logic, the overall idea should be to short at high levels, but beware of the possibility of price rebounds at low levels. In the long - term trading, although the impact of needle pulp warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, there are uncertainties in the supply of long - term warehouse receipts, which brings certain benefits. The Fed's continuous interest - rate cut process may stop, and the macro sentiment is relatively weak, while there may be favorable policy factors [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The core influencing factors this week are the poor downstream bidding situation and the accumulation of port inventories. The poor bidding situation has affected the confidence of paper enterprises and prices. The increase in Chinese port inventories by 63,000 tons has also put pressure on futures prices. In addition, some pulp mills are expected to increase production in the future, which will increase the supply pressure. The downstream paper - making operating rate has declined, and demand has weakened. The previous increase in pulp futures prices was also affected by capital, and the current decline is a return to a relatively normal price [2][3]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - Futures trading can consider temporary waiting and watching, or short - term shorting at high levels. Options strategies can also wait and watch temporarily. The 12 - 01 backwardation spread arbitrage can continue to be held [15]. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations** - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (needle pulp/offset printing paper) who are worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, or sell call options to collect premiums. For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, or sell put options to collect premiums [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information** - Some pulp mills are under maintenance, and European port pulp inventories decreased in September [11]. - **Negative Information** - Port inventories have accumulated, the Thurderbay pulp mill and the US Woodland pulp mill will switch to producing needle pulp, and the bidding situation of paper enterprises is poor [16]. - **Spot Transaction Information** - The report provides detailed price information on various types of pulp, including futures prices, domestic spot prices, and domestic finished - paper average prices, as well as their price changes [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation** - The SP2601 contract fluctuated widely this week. Both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator rose and is still in the buying range but is approaching the neutral range, with a high possibility of continued short - term fluctuations [19]. - **Basis and Spread Structure** - The 12 - 06 contract maintains a C - structure, and the 07 - 11 contract is in a B - structure. The suppression of needle pulp warehouse receipts continues, and the current inventory reduction is slow. Attention can be paid to the 12 - 01 spread backwardation arbitrage [22]. 3.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory** - On November 21st, the inventory was 2.173 million tons (+63,000 tons), showing a significant increase compared to last week. The domestic monthly import volume of needle pulp in late September was 760,000 tons, showing a rebound from August. The global pulp shipment volume to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, which will put pressure on subsequent pulp inventory reduction. The inventories of downstream finished papers in enterprises are continuously accumulating, and the profit margins have declined this week, restricting the raw - material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [26]. - **Supply** - It includes domestic production volume and import volume. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of domestic pulp production and import volume [51][53]. - **Demand** - It includes the capacity utilization rate, production volume, export volume, and consumption volume of finished papers. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of these aspects [60][64][68][73].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 01 contract was 5,472 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,408 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.17%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 4,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton, with the price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing quotation was 5,550 yuan/ton [7]. - Production and Inventory: In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market continued to grow. In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The European wood pulp consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of November 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9766 million tons, a 4.22% increase from the previous week [7]. - Downstream Paper: The performance of downstream base paper remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while the prices of other base papers were stable. The improvement of social orders for offset paper was limited, and the publishing tenders continued. Pay attention to the cost digestion performance of downstream paper mills, and pulp is under pressure at the previous high [7]. Group 3: Industry News - On November 17, Hong Kong - listed paper stocks rose. Chenming Paper led with a gain of over 6%, Nine Dragons Paper rose over 5%, and Lee & Man Paper rose nearly 3%. Since November, the price increase wave in the domestic paper industry has continued to heat up. Shanying Paper and Nine Dragons Paper have raised prices, and downstream cardboard factories in Zhejiang and Hunan have responded with price increases. However, industry insiders pointed out that the price increase of packaging paper may not be sustainable due to the falling prices of bulk paper materials and the oversupply situation [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pulp futures market has shown a recovery since November, with prices rising over 9% from a low of 5042 yuan/ton to above 5550 yuan/ton, driven by seasonal demand and cautious purchasing behavior from paper mills [1] - UPM and Metsa reported losses in their paper businesses for the first half of the year, while Sodra's pulp business faced an operating loss of 220 million Swedish Krona in Q2, reflecting a general downturn in the pulp and paper industry [1] - The supply-demand balance for pulp is currently weak, with cautious purchasing from paper mills leading to low inventory levels, which may trigger a replenishment cycle if demand improves [1] Group 2 - The downstream paper market shows mixed signals, with white card paper prices stabilizing and recovering to May levels after a decline during the third quarter, supported by price increases from leading paper companies [2] - The demand for consumer paper remains stable, with a notable increase in exports of consumer paper by 20% to 30%, which is expected to maintain overall demand confidence in the last two months of the year [2] - The cultural paper segment, particularly double glue paper, faces challenges from digital alternatives, declining birth rates, and reduced demand for traditional print media, leading to a subdued market outlook [2][3] Group 3 - The current downturn in double glue paper is attributed to issues on the supply, inventory, and profit fronts, with a total inventory of 1.8813 million tons, marking a 7.66% year-on-year increase [3] - Despite plans from several paper companies to raise double glue paper prices by 200 yuan/ton, the price increase is driven by profit pressure rather than actual demand improvement, making it difficult for downstream acceptance [3] - Overall, while the pulp demand outlook remains optimistic with the start of the double glue paper bidding season, supply pressures persist, and overseas production cuts have not significantly impacted the market [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 01 contract was 5474 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5474 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.00%. [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4900 - 6500 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5550 yuan/ton. [7] - International News: Finnforest Metsa notified Chinese customers that the November quotation of softwood pulp increased by $20. In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market continued to grow. [7] - European Market: In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. [7] - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9766 million tons, an increase of 4.22% from the previous week. [7] - Downstream Market: The performance of downstream base paper remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while the prices of other base papers were stable. The improvement of social orders for offset paper was limited, and publishing tenders continued. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Hong Kong Stock Market: On November 17, Hong Kong paper stocks rose. Chenming Paper led with a gain of over 6%, Nine Dragons Paper rose over 5%, and Lee & Man Paper rose nearly 3%. [8] - Price Increase: Since November, the price increase wave in the domestic paper industry has intensified. Shanying Paper raised the prices of products such as red fir paper and corrugated paper by 30 - 100 yuan/ton, and the core product categories in Guangdong and Zhejiang bases increased by 50 yuan/ton. Nine Dragons Paper and other enterprises followed suit. [8] - Market Outlook: Driven by the packaging demand during the "Double Eleven" period, the price increase of packaging paper was supported, but industry insiders pointed out that the price increase might not be sustainable due to the oversupply of bulk paper materials. [8]