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需求有望保持增长态势 纸浆重心将逐步上移
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-19 00:55
Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has shown a warming trend since the beginning of the year, with the pulp futures market experiencing a relatively flat performance compared to the strong rise in non-ferrous metals and new energy products. The potential for pulp prices to break out of the current range and enter a low valuation recovery phase is under discussion as macroeconomic recovery becomes more evident [1]. Supply Overview - In 2025, global pulp supply is expected to face a tight-to-loose pattern, with new production capacity offsetting reductions. No new pulp lines are expected to be commissioned overseas, while significant reductions are anticipated, particularly in hardwood pulp. Domestic production capacity is projected to increase by approximately 1.7 million tons, mainly in softwood, hardwood, and chemical pulp [1]. - By the third quarter of 2025, major domestic players like Chenming Paper will gradually resume production, balancing the annual capacity increase with maintenance shutdowns [1]. - In 2026, global pulp production pressure is expected to emerge in the second half, primarily from new projects in Indonesia and domestic chemical pulp plans. However, supply constraints from North American and Nordic mills will continue to impact the market [1]. Shipment Volume - In 2025, the shipping pressure for wood pulp is significant, with global hardwood pulp shipments remaining high while softwood pulp shipments rebounded in the third quarter after a decline in the second quarter. Notably, shipments to China have increased [2]. - From January to November 2025, global shipments of bleached softwood pulp increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while bleached hardwood pulp shipments rose by 7.7% [2]. - For 2026, limited new overseas capacity and potential delays in some projects are expected to ease shipping pressures, with hardwood pulp inventory levels remaining manageable [2]. Production and Profitability - The paper industry has faced low profitability due to rapid capacity expansion and insufficient demand. Major paper manufacturers have been pressured by rising costs, leading to production cuts in some cases [2]. - In 2025, the introduction of new capacities for white card and double offset paper has added pressure to the market, resulting in low profits for these products. Overall production has not significantly increased despite the capacity additions [3]. - The production of various paper types showed mixed results from January to November 2025, with double offset paper and coated paper experiencing declines, while life paper and white card paper saw growth [3]. Demand Outlook - Domestic demand for pulp is expected to continue growing, supported by rigid demand from the downstream paper industry. The market for finished paper remains divided, with cultural paper demand weak due to demographic changes, while white card paper is expected to see continued support from domestic and export needs [4]. - Life paper demand is projected to grow steadily due to increased per capita usage and diverse applications [4]. Market Trends - The pulp supply-demand imbalance is expected to ease in 2026, with clear signals of a market bottom and a gradual upward shift in long-term price levels. Global hardwood pulp inventories are healthy, and domestic production is set to contribute reasonable supply increments [6]. - However, the overall demand growth is expected to slow down due to excess finished paper supply, low operating rates in paper mills, and cautious purchasing attitudes, which may dampen short-term demand release [6].
纸浆数据日报-20260115
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 02:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures have limited room for further upside due to the recent concentrated registration of pulp futures warrants, but the firmness of hardwood pulp and the stabilization of finished paper prices provide bottom support for pulp futures and spot prices. The pulp futures are expected to trade in the range of 5,400 - 5,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 14, 2026, SP2601 was 5,470 yuan/ton, up 0.89% day - on - day and down 0.91% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.84% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5,494 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day and down 1.82% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.93% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,730 yuan/ton, down 0.42% day - on - day and up 0.21% week - on - week [6]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's outer - disk quote was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month, and its import cost was 5,802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish's outer - disk quote was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month, and its import cost was 4,587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month; Chilean Venus's outer - disk quote was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and its import cost was 5,073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month compared to October; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month compared to October [6]. - **Shipment Volume to China**: In November 2025, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production Volume**: As of January 8, 2026, the domestic production volume of hardwood pulp was 25.1 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 4.8% compared to the previous period, ending five consecutive weeks of destocking [6][7]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 13.5 tons [6]. - **Finished Paper Production Volume**: The production volume of offset paper was 20.40 tons, coated paper was 8.40 tons, tissue paper was 29.33 tons, and white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6]. Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star's offer was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; and natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production volume of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [6].
纸浆数据日报-20260114
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 03:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent pulp futures warehouse receipts are concentrated for registration, with limited further upside potential. However, the firmness of broadleaf pulp and the stabilization of finished paper prices provide bottom support for pulp futures and spot prices. Pulp futures are expected to trade in the range of 5,400 - 5,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 13, 2026, SP2601 was 5,422 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.92%; SP2609 was 5,540 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.91%; SP2605 was 5,492 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04% and a weekly decrease of 2.14% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.90%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5,350 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.93%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.64% [6]. - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's external quote was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% from the previous period, and its import cost was 5,802 yuan/ton, up 1.42%; Brazilian Goldfish's external quote was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% from the previous period, and its import cost was 4,587 yuan/ton, up 3.66%; Chilean Venus's external quote was 620 dollars/ton with no change, and its import cost was 5,073 yuan/ton with no change [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 72.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; broadleaf pulp imports were 176.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.92%. The shipment volume of pulp to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 3%. From December 25, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was around 25 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was around 23.9 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.8%. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses increased from 9.9 tons on December 18, 2025, to 13.5 tons on January 8, 2026 [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper products was relatively stable. Double - offset paper production was around 20.4 tons, coated paper production was around 8.4 tons, tissue paper production was around 29.33 tons, and white cardboard production was around 38.3 tons [6].
纸浆数据日报-20260113
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 07:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Today, pulp futures weakened significantly due to the macro - sentiment of commodities but did not break the 5400 - 5700 trading range. One can consider high - selling and low - buying within this range [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 10, 2026, SP2601 was 5418 yuan/ton, down 1.13% day - on - day and 0.99% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5231 yuan/ton, down 1.18% day - on - day and 0.47% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5490 yuan/ton, down 1.08% day - on - day and 0.72% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On January 10, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 yuan/ton, up 1.89% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton, up 0.64% day - on - day and 1.06% week - on - week [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In January 2026, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; the quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: In January 2026, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations from December 2025 to January 2026 [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month. The pulp port inventory and futures delivery warehouse inventory also showed different trends from December 2025 to January 2026 [6] - **Demand**: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of household paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper has been stable. From December 2025 to January 2026, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, household paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations [6]
纸浆周报:纸浆波动剧烈,预计震荡运行-20260112
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 08:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the pulp industry is that it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a trading strategy of a unilateral oscillating operation and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by macro - commodity sentiment, with limited internal drivers. Supply shows some strength, demand is neutral, and inventory is also neutral. Overall, the pulp is expected to oscillate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply is strong. Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp is 710 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the offer for broad - leaf pulp Star is 590 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; and the offer for natural pulp Venus is 620 US dollars/ton, remaining flat [3]. - **Demand**: The demand is neutral. This week, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while the prices of other paper products are stable. In the fourth quarter, the overall paper production increased due to the peak demand season [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in China's mainstream pulp ports is 200.7 tons, up 1.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend [3]. - **Investment View**: The pulp is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the significant impact of macro - commodity sentiment and limited internal drivers [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate. For arbitrage, pay attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: The pulp futures have been oscillating this week. Affected by macro - commodity sentiment and with limited internal drivers, it is expected to trade between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaf pulp has increased, and the basis of coniferous pulp has changed. The external offer of coniferous pulp has also increased [6][14][16]. - **Position Change**: As of January 12, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts is 307109 lots, up 0.2% from last week, and the position of the main pulp futures contract is 215480 lots, up 4.3% from last week [18]. 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume is 3246000 tons, up 23.99%; the coniferous pulp import volume is 725000 tons, up 4.92%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume is 1765000 tons, up 33.88%; and the broad - leaf wood chip import volume is 1490000 tons, up 55.69% [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp inventory in ports has rebounded, and a large number of new warehouse receipts have been registered. As of January 8, 2026, the port inventory is 200.7 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory is 10450 tons, up 4.3% [3][4]. Overseas pulp mill inventory days are generally stable, with the inventory of 20 major countries at 46 days at the end of November [36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while other paper prices are stable. In December 2025, the production of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The inventory of double - offset paper has increased, and the available days have also increased. The production cost of double - offset paper has increased, and the gross profit has decreased. In Europe, the demand for pulp has increased, and the inventory has decreased [39][48][62]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star has weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread is basically stable [80].
纸浆数据日报-20260112
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 06:14
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp futures were significantly weakened by the macro - sentiment of commodities today but did not break through the 5400 - 5700 shock range. It is expected to have large fluctuations due to commodity sentiment in the near future, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 9, 2026, SP2601 was 5480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 0.37%; SP2609 was 5602 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.68% and a weekly increase of 0.57%; SP2605 was 5550 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.84% and a weekly increase of 0.33% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On January 9, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.89% and no weekly change; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly increase of 1.06% [6] - **Foreign Offer Prices**: In January 2026, the offer price of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 1.43%; the offer price of Brazilian Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 3.70%; the offer price of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no monthly change [6] - **Import Costs**: In January 2026, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 1.42%; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4587 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 3.66%; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton with no monthly change [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons with a monthly increase of 4.92% compared to October; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 176.5 tons with a monthly increase of 33.92% compared to October [6] - **Supply - Domestic Output**: On January 8, 2026, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp was 25.1 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, a cumulative increase of 9.1 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [6] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On January 8, 2026, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 13.5 tons [6] - **Demand - Finished Paper Output**: On January 8, 2026, the output of offset paper was 20.40 tons; the output of coated paper was 8.40 tons; the output of tissue paper was 29.33 tons; the output of white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6]
纸浆周报:维持震荡,进口成本端仍存支撑-20260109
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 09:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 maintained a volatile trend with a weekly increase of 0.33%. Considering the firm external quotation, cost - end support, declining port inventory, and potential mild recovery of domestic demand, the current upward trend of pulp futures may not end. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then adopt a bullish - biased trading strategy while paying attention to the digestion of port inventory [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 first rose and then fell, maintaining a volatile market with a weekly increase of 0.33% [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of January 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,581 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from last week, and the increase rate was 0.04 percentage points higher than the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,655 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from last week, and the increase rate was 0.59 percentage points higher than the previous period [11] - **Pulp Import Volume in November**: In November 2025, China imported 3.246 billion tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.8734 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 577.14 US dollars/ton. From January to November, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 5.8% and - 1.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. In October 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 691,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%, and the growth rate of softwood pulp imports slowed down significantly [15] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of December 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.965 billion tons, a decrease of 1.19% from last week, changing from an increase to a decrease [20] - **Pulp Inventory in Major European Ports in November**: In November 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.75% compared with November 2024. The decline in European wood pulp port inventory may indicate that the off - season of European demand has passed and demand is gradually recovering [23] - **Downstream Pulp Operating Rates**: Waste paper pulp consumption is the main way of pulp consumption in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%. Non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of January 8, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 5.45 percentage points week - on - week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 0.74 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 0.08 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 0.50 percentage points week - on - week [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - Arauco's January wood pulp external quotations showed an increase in some varieties. The decline in European wood pulp port inventory may indicate the end of the off - season and a recovery in demand. The external quotations are firm, providing cost - end support. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp is stable with a slight upward trend, but the downstream paper price increase is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the willingness to purchase high - priced raw materials. Considering the continued increase in external quotations, cost - end support, and declining port inventory, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The current upward trend of pulp futures may not end, and attention should be paid to the digestion of port inventory. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then adopt a bullish - biased trading strategy [34]
纸浆数据日报-20260109
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 03:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures weakened significantly today due to the macro - sentiment of commodities but did not break the 5400 - 5700 trading range. It is expected to be highly volatile in the near term due to commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data Futures and Spot Prices - On January 8, 2026, SP2601 futures price was 5444 yuan/ton, down 1.38% day - on - day and 0.95% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5564 yuan/ton, down 1.42% day - on - day and 0.71% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5504 yuan/ton, down 1.64% day - on - day and 1.15% week - on - week [6] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 0.90% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5300 yuan/ton, down 1.85% both day - on - day and week - on - week; the spot price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton, up 1.06% both day - on - day and week - on - week [6] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chile Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month [6] - The outer - disk quote of Brazil Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month; its import cost was 4587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month [6] - The outer - disk quote of Chile Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data Import Volume and Shipment - In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3% [6] Domestic Output - On January 8, 2026, the domestic output of broadleaf pulp was 25.1 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6] Inventory - As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 9.1 tons from the previous period and 4.8% higher on a month - on - month basis. The inventory ended the five - week de - stocking trend and started to accumulate in this cycle [6] - On January 8, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 200.7 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 13.5 tons [6] Demand (Finished Paper Production) - On January 8, 2026, the production of offset paper was 20.40 tons, coated paper was 8.40 tons, tissue paper was 29.33 tons, and white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer for broadleaf pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer for natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - Demand: The pulp demand has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [6]
纸浆早报-20260109
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 02:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report Core View - No clear core view presented 3. Summary by Relevant Content SP Main Contract Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on January 8, 2026, was 5504.00 [2] - Compared with the previous day, it decreased by 1.64403%, and the converted US - dollar price was 688.88 [2] Import Profit and Pricing - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp was 77.83, while for Canadian Lion pulp it was - 237.80, and for Chilean Silver Star pulp it was - 26.18 [3] Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp remained unchanged [3] - In Shandong region, the average prices of these pulp types also remained unchanged during the same period [3] Paper Index and Profit Margin - From January 5 to 8, 2026, the double - offset paper index, double - copper paper index, and white cardboard index remained unchanged, while the living paper index increased by 2 [3] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and living paper changed by 0.0856, 0.0833, 0.0578, and 0.1812 respectively from January 5 to 8, 2026 [3] Pulp Price Spreads - On January 8, 2026, the softwood - hardwood pulp price spread was 825.00, the softwood - natural pulp price spread was 165, the softwood - chemical mechanical pulp price spread was 1690, and the softwood - waste paper price spread was 3989 [3][4]
建信期货纸浆日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:18
Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated January 6, 2025 [1][2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different sectors such as paper pulp, crude oil asphalt, etc [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,554 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,530 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,950 - 6,300 yuan/ton, with prices remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 5,580 - 5,600 yuan/ton [7] - Asia Symbol recently announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in the price of hardwood pulp, and there was no news of adjustment for the softwood pulp FOB price. In November, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.6% and hardwood pulp down 7.3%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In November 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 700,000 tons, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease and a 6.3% year - on - year increase; the European wood pulp consumption was 805,600 tons, a 6.2% month - on - month decrease and a 4.6% year - on - year decrease. The total pulp imports in November 2025 were 3.246 million tons, a 24% month - on - month increase and a 15.9% year - on - year increase. As of December 25, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.8891 million tons, a 2.47% week - on - week decrease [8] - On the demand side, some paper mills had price increase expectations due to cost pressure, but due to insufficient follow - up of terminal orders, paper price increases were weak, and the mainstream price of offset paper remained stable. During the holiday, the fundamentals changed little, and the market focused on the pricing of near - month warehouse receipts and was in a state of oscillatory adjustment [8] Group 3: Industry News - On January 4, 2026, Rizhao Party Secretary Li Zaiwu visited Asia Symbol (Shandong) Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. to investigate the progress of key projects and solve problems in project promotion [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts related to pulp, such as import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, etc., with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures, as well as some from Zhuochuang Information [7][15][26]