【美联储上调对美国经济活动的评估 称其以"稳健"速度扩张】智通财经1月29日电，美联储上调对经济 活动的评估，称其以"稳健"速度扩张。美联储称，失业率显示出一定稳定迹象，就业增长仍然低迷。美 联储重申其关于长期目标和货币政策策略的声明。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while economic activity shows robust expansion but with high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was anticipated, with a probability exceeding 97% according to CME "FedWatch" [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that employment growth remains sluggish, but there are signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains elevated [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 4.3% [2]. - Powell indicated that tariff-induced inflation is expected to dissipate by mid-2026, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the future [3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts for this year, with a high probability of maintaining rates in March exceeding 80% [3]. - Analysts from Huatai Securities and CICC suggest that the Fed's January meeting supports a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy and employment market, with expectations of rate cuts potentially occurring after the new chair takes office mid-year [3].

专题：美联储周三料将按兵不动 市场关注鲍威尔会后表态 北京时间1月28日晚间消息，美联储周三料维持利率不变，投资者认为这一暂停将持续到美联储主席鲍 威尔3月和4月的最后几次会议之后。鲍威尔的继任者预计将在夏季上任，而政策制定者们对于是否有必 要进一步降息存在分歧。 最新数据显示，尽管就业增长疲软，但美国12月份失业率降至4.4%。经济学家预计，当月剔除食品和 能源成本的个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数同比上涨3%，远高于美联储2%的目标。 Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah在对美联储即将召开的会议进行分析时写道："鉴 于美国经济的强劲势头，很明显，目前没有大幅降低利率的迫切需要。" 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨3：00公布政策决定，鲍威尔计划在半小时后召开新闻发布会，详细阐述 利率决定和经济前景。 本周的会议不包括政策制定者对经济和货币政策季度预测的更新，但在12月9日至10日的会议之后发布 的预测显示，由于官员们意见分歧很大，预计2026年只会降息0.25个百分点。 在12月的会议上，19位美联储政策制定者中有7位表示至少一年内无需进一步降息，4位表示可能只需 ...

万斯在讲话中敦促选民对经济保持耐心，称特朗普从民主党籍总统拜登手中接过了一个"烂摊子"。万斯说，"民主党人经常谈论美国的住宅负担能力危机。 没错，确实存在住宅负担能力危机，这是乔·拜登的政策造成的。你不可能一夜之间就让泰坦尼克号掉头，修复破损的东西需要时间。" 《新共和》称，讽刺的是，泰坦尼克号曾被誉为"永不沉没"的巨轮，直到1912年4月15日，它撞上了冰山。这艘客轮的名字如今已成为失败的代名词。 美国视频博主布莱恩·泰勒·科恩在X上写到，"他（万斯）知道泰坦尼克号发生了什么事吗？"另一名网民讽刺说， "至少他承认了我们在哪条船上。" 【环球网报道】据美国广播公司（ABC）报道，美国副总统万斯当地时间1月22日在俄亥俄州的一次集会上发表讲话，他敦促选民对美国经济保持耐心。然 而，万斯在发言时将美国比作泰坦尼克号，美国杂志《新共和》称，这艘客轮的名字如今已成为失败的代名词。 ABC称，万斯此次露面的主要目的是在美国总统特朗普出席达沃斯世界经济论坛年会后，进一步宣传特朗普政府积极的经济政策信息。他还借此机会为共 和党在中期选举中的一些重要候选人站台。报道称，在特朗普再次就任总统后的第一年里，如何让选民对国家财政 ...

特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛期间举行的私人招待会上，让100多位全球顶级企业高管站立等候超过一 小时。 1月22日，据华尔街日报消息，这场原定当地时间周三（1月21日）下午5点开始的活动直到6点半后才迎 来主角，现场没有提供座椅，包括英伟达CEO黄仁勋、苹果CEO库克和贝莱德CEO芬克在内的商界领 袖只能在高桌旁站立等待。 报道指出，由于行程紧张且当晚还有其他重要晚宴，部分高管对延迟表示不满。摩根大通CEO戴蒙因 需出席自家公司在基尔希纳博物馆的活动，在特朗普抵达前就已离场。美国银行CEO莫伊尼汉（Brian Moynihan）则未出席此次招待会。 特朗普在约15分钟的讲话中涉及美国经济、委内瑞拉政权更迭等多个议题，并点名表扬了包括库克在内 的多位高管。他还称"有时你需要一个独裁者"，随后补充说自己的治理风格是"常识"。白宫发言人回应 称，特朗普的批评者会毫无根据地称他为独裁者，但总统所做的一切都基于常识和国家利益。 这是自2020年以来首次有在任美国总统出席达沃斯世界经济论坛。据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，特朗普 在当天早些时候发表的公开演讲被视为缓和了与欧洲国家在格陵兰问题上的冲突。他在当天的招待会上 表示对演 ...

Core Insights - The core PCE price index for November 2025 in the U.S. is reported at an annual rate of 2.8% and a monthly rate of 0.2%, both meeting expectations [2] - The PCE data indicates that inflation in the U.S. economy has not significantly rebounded, providing sufficient room for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on monetary policy suggests that the interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in the January meeting [2] Monetary Policy Implications - Despite pressure from the U.S. government, Powell is determined to uphold the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that interest rates may remain stable until at least May when he is expected to step down [2] - The potential for sustained interest rates implies that negative pressures on the U.S. economy from interest rates will not be alleviated in the short term, complicating the maintenance of current economic growth [2] Economic Outlook - The Trump administration is expected to strive to maintain economic growth trends despite the pressures of the midterm elections, but this does not eliminate the negative pressures facing the U.S. economy [2] - Investors are advised to approach the situation with caution due to the possibility of unusual economic conditions arising [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Analysis - The discussion highlights the relationship between the US stock market and the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the context of economic factors such as the AI industry and US economic performance. If the US market declines due to the AI sector or overall economic issues, it is reasonable for the Hong Kong market to follow suit [1] - Conversely, if the decline in the US market is attributed to factors like the US-EU tariff war, dollar credit issues, or global asset reallocation, the Hong Kong market may not only remain unaffected but could actually benefit significantly from these circumstances [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The potential for the Hong Kong market to thrive amidst US market challenges is emphasized, suggesting that it could be one of the most advantageous assets in such scenarios [1] Additional Important Points - The metaphor of "鹬蚌相争渔翁得利" (the clam and the snipe struggle, while the fisherman benefits) is used to illustrate the idea that while two parties are in conflict, a third party (in this case, the Hong Kong market) may gain from the situation [1]

IBM副总裁加里·科恩表示，美国经济的根本实力将战胜地缘政治带来的阻力。近期华盛顿与敌友关系 的不确定性已冲击美元汇率并推高美国国债收益率。"市场确实出现了一些'抛售美国'的行为，"曾任特 朗普总统顾问的科恩在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛间隙向彭博社表示，"但远未到'清盘美国'的程度。" 科恩强调："我们目前拥有全球最强劲的经济体之一，地缘政治风险是唯一的阻碍。一旦局势平息，市 场必将反弹。" 科恩强调："我们目前拥有全球最强劲的经济体之一，地缘政治风险是唯一的阻碍。一旦局势平息，市 场必将反弹。" 责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 IBM副总裁加里·科恩表示，美国经济的根本实力将战胜地缘政治带来的阻力。近期华盛顿与敌友关系 的不确定性已冲击美元汇率并推高美国国债收益率。"市场确实出现了一些'抛售美国'的行为，"曾任特 朗普总统顾问的科恩在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛间隙向彭博社表示，"但远未到'清盘美国'的程度。" ...

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 99,990 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures opened at 1,050.16 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,061.16 CNY and a low of 1,047.80 CNY, currently trading at 1,060.16 CNY, reflecting a 1.99% increase [1] - Trading volume for the day is 168,464 contracts, with open interest increasing by 18,249 contracts to a total of 185,964 contracts [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "light to moderate" expansion, with inflation cooling down; December CPI year-on-year decreased to 2.7%, and core CPI month-on-month was 0.2% lower than expected [1] - Industrial production showed an unexpected rebound in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, primarily driven by utilities and manufacturing [1] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance, with interest rate cut expectations pushed back to June [1]

申万宏源宏观 热点思考 | 美国经济的共识与分歧——基于74家机构调查（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...