原创 经济学家洪灝 洪灝的宏观策略 2025年08月02日 市场质疑统计数据的声音四起。很多人认为出现如此大的就业数据下修，那么一定是统计局局长水平不够，或者是就业数据被掺水了，并据此而 对于特朗普的斩首行动拍手称快。如果各位还记得，在不到一年前，2024年的9月大选前，特朗普的手下干将Rubio认为当时的就业数据显著地低 估了拜登时期经济困难的状况。也就是说，卢比奥不到一年前认为美国的就业数据太高了，美化了拜登的执政政绩。那么，现在特朗普又认为就 业数据太低了，并以此为借口炒掉了劳力统计局局长，不免有选择性执法之嫌。顺便说一下，这位局长是拜登任命的。 上一次美国劳动统计局局长被炒，还是1932年大萧条时期。当时由于局长不同意胡佛的经济政策，胡佛就把他炒了，而大萧条继续。 特朗普不仅仅炒掉了局座，他还在自己的社交媒体上继续对于美联储主席鲍威尔攻击施压。这是过去几年来，特朗普在自己的社交媒体上攻击鲍 威尔最频繁的一次，并在上周实地视察了美联储斥资30亿美元的装修工程，当面施压。特朗普认为鲍威尔早就应该降息，但补充说不"会马上炒掉 鲍威尔"，然后又加了一句"如果不是担心市场波动，早就把他炒了"。随后，媒体又爆出了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000[1][11]. - The unemployment rate in July 2025 was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous 4.1%[1][14]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% and revised from a previous increase of 3.7%[1][14]. Data Revision Insights - The June non-farm payrolls were revised down by a total of 258,000, with significant downward adjustments in government, leisure, and construction sectors, accounting for 90,000 of the total revision[2][12]. - The downward revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating a decline in the accuracy of the "birth-death model" used for employment predictions[2][5]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities, education, and healthcare sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing stability in service sector demand[3][27]. - The goods-producing sector continued to show negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating weak production intentions among businesses[3][28]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in June, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][35]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2%[4][35]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with market predictions indicating three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September with an 83.4% probability[5][26]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with the second quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, but core GDP growth showing signs of decline[5][23].

由于市场对美国经济和就业形势的担忧加剧，1日美元指数快速下跌超1%，美国10年期国债收益率快速 下跌超过12个基点，纽约股市三大股指早盘跌幅均超过1%，市场对美联储降息预期快速升温。 转自：北京日报客户端 美国劳工部1日公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比上升，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位表现也逊于市 场预期。受此影响，当日美国股市和美元指数大幅下跌。 数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至4.2%。同时，5月和6月非农业部门新增就业岗位数量 较此前公布数据有大幅下调，显示美国就业市场明显降温。 美国行业金融机构海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家希瑟·朗表示，最新数据反映美国就业市场正快速恶 化。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具1日早间公布的数据显示，美联储在9月货币政策会议上降息25个基点 的概率从前一日的37.7%大幅升至75.5%。 来源：新华社 ...

财料 20 10 0 2025-07 公布值 7.3万人 11万人 预期值 ·失业率 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 20% 4.2% 10 4% 4%3.9 3.9% 3.9%99 2025-07 3.8% 3.1% 4.2% 公布值 3.6% 4.20% 预期值 3.4% ·平均每小时工资月率 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0 1%0 4% 4% 7月新增就业创近10个月新低，前值"滑坡式"下修！美联储9月降息势在必行？一图读懂7月美国非农数据 0% 到9月 到9月 到10月 到10月 降息25个基点 降息25个基点 降息50个基点 维持利率不变 樓 率 概率 相驱 概率 04 | 市场反应 WS.J 华尔街日报 美国7月非农新增就业岗位7.3万个,低于经济学家预期的10 万个。失业率从4.1%微升至4.2%。在这份报告发布之际, 经济学家与政策制定者正试图厘清两种相悖的经济叙事何者 更接近真相。乐观派认为经济展现惊人韧性:关税威胁虽已 渗透部分商品价格,但尚未引发显著通胀;年初持观望态度 的消费者正重拾信心。悲观派则指出裂痕正在扩大： 宝洁、 C ...

点击注册小程序 2025 年 7 月 30 日，美股股指表现分化，道指、标普 500 分别下跌 0.4%、 0.1%，纳斯达克指数上涨 0.1%。10 年期国债收益率上行 4 个 bp 至 4.38%， 2 年期国债收益率上行 8 个 bp 至 3.94%。 事件： 2025年7月30日，美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值： 核心观点： 美国2025年二季度消费环比增速反弹，主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱下的净出口贡献，消费与投资则难掩疲弱。 一方面，二季度"抢进口"效应减弱，美国进口环比折年率降至-30.3%，导致净出口对GDP拖累大幅收敛，是二 季度经济增速转正的重要原因。但另一方面，消费与投资则难掩疲弱，其中二季度美国消费者信心指数低迷， 相应地个人消费表现较弱，1.4%的环比增速为2024年以来的次低值，私人投资环比折年率也降至-15.6%，因此 不宜高估本次经济数据的韧性。 从降息角度来看，美国经济增速转正，但消费与投资表现低迷，指向美国经济仍在下行通道中，美联储在下半 年重启降息的概率依然存在。就经济数据本身而言，客观上看，二季度经济数据高于预期，缓和经济衰退担 忧，相应地美联储选择在7 ...

Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter but still above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflationary pressures [1][2] Factors Influencing Economic Performance - A significant decline in imports and a rapid increase in consumer spending were identified as key factors for the unexpected growth in the second quarter [2] - Net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP due to new tariff measures that led to a decrease in imports, contrasting with the previous quarter's surge in imports driven by export countries [2] Employment and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending grew by 1.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 1.5%, suggesting a gradual weakening of real demand [2] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, but still falling short of last year's average levels, reflecting cautious hiring decisions amid tariff policy uncertainties [2][4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current interest rates during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4] - The Fed's decision comes in the context of a significant decline in the dollar's value, which has dropped over 10% this year due to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession [4] Market Outlook - The unexpected economic data for the second quarter has alleviated recession fears, while the clarity in trade negotiations among developed economies is expected to influence the future trajectory of the dollar and gold prices [5]

2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 "抢进口"效应减弱，难掩美国经济隐忧 ——2025 年二季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 7 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年二季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 | | | 010-56513066 | 【1】二季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值+3.0%，预期+2.4%，前值-0.5%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.4%，预期+1.5%，前值+0.5%； | | 分析师：周欣平 | 【3】二季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+2.5%，预期+2.3%，前值+3.5%。 | | 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 | | | 010-57378026 | | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负—— | | | 2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评（2 ...

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate rebounded to 3% quarter-on-quarter annualized in Q2 2025, while the actual year-on-year growth rate remained at 2%, indicating a downward trend since Q3 2023[4] - Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) fell to a new low of 1.2% in Q2 2025, down from 1.9% in Q1 2025, reflecting a continued slowdown in domestic demand[7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending in Q2 2025 recorded a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.4%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to improved consumer confidence following reduced tariff uncertainties[5] - Year-on-year consumer spending growth fell to 2.4%, with services being the main contributor to this decline[8] Investment Trends - Investment fell sharply in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -15.6%, a decrease of 39.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, driven by the end of pre-tariff inventory accumulation[14] - Year-on-year investment growth also declined to -0.1%, with non-residential construction investment dropping to -3.8%[14] Trade Dynamics - Exports fell by -1.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, while imports saw a significant decline of -30.3%, down 68.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a retreat from the previous quarter's import surge[20] - Year-on-year import growth decreased by 11.6 percentage points to 1.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since December 2023, excluding Q1 2025[20] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, suggesting an increase in individuals permanently exiting the labor market[21] - Non-farm payrolls increased slightly to 147,000 in June, with government jobs contributing half of the new positions, while private sector job growth slowed significantly[21]

宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 31 日 美联储内部分歧加大，降息或尚需时日 宏观研究团队 ——7 月 FOMC 会议点评 hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122110044 事件：美联储于北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨 2 点发布 7 月 FOMC 会议声明，宣布保 持利率水平不变。 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储在此次会议上宣布维持利率水平在 4.25%-4.5%区间。缩表方面，将继 续按照 3 月 FOMC 会议上的原定计划执行。 2. 再次维持利率水平不变，认为经济不确定性仍高，出现 2 张反对票。在声明 中，美联储的措辞同 6 月份相比略有变化，认为虽然净出口的波动影响了经济数 据，但上半年美国经济活动增长有所放缓。就业与通胀方面，与 6 月表述基本相 同。但美联储认为美国经济前景的不确定性依旧高涨。此外，本次会议中出现两 票反对，鲍曼以及沃勒认为本次会议中应该降息 25bp，与其前期表态一致，但 凸显出美联储内部的分歧进一步显性化。 3. 发布会上，鲍威尔表态 ...