Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump believes the Federal Reserve's interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high [1] - Trump claims that the high interest rates result in an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] - He argues that there is currently no inflation and that companies are flocking to the U.S., suggesting a need to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rates are perceived to be at least 3 percentage points too high, leading to significant financial losses for the U.S. economy due to increased refinancing costs [1] Group 1 - The annual loss attributed to each percentage point increase in refinancing costs is estimated at $360 billion [1] - There is a claim that there is no inflation currently affecting the economy [1] - Businesses are reportedly flocking to the U.S. market, indicating a positive sentiment towards the economic environment [1] Group 2 - A call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is emphasized, suggesting that a reduction could benefit the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump claims that the Federal Reserve's interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high, resulting in an additional annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the United States [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rates are perceived to be excessively high by Trump [1] - The high interest rates are leading to increased refinancing costs for the U.S. government [1] - The additional annual cost attributed to these high rates is estimated at $360 billion [1]

Core Points - The recent passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" in the U.S. Congress reflects a significant shift towards austerity measures that disproportionately affect lower-income individuals and workers [4][10] - The act extends tax benefits for the wealthy while cutting food assistance and medical subsidies for the poor, indicating a regression to a more conservative societal structure reminiscent of the Cold War era [6][10][11] - The U.S. is facing a growing national debt, nearing $35 trillion, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually, prompting the need for spending cuts [9] Summary by Sections Legislative Changes - The "Big Beautiful Act" passed with a narrow vote of 218 to 214, with no Democratic votes in favor and only two Republicans opposing [4] - Key provisions include the extension of tax benefits for the wealthy and cuts to food assistance and medical subsidies for the poor [4][10] Economic Context - Over the past decade, average wage growth in the U.S. was around 3% annually before the pandemic, but real purchasing power has stagnated despite nominal increases of over 5% in recent years [6] - The wealth of the top 10% of Americans increased by over 15% in the past year, driven by stock market and real estate gains, while lower-income households have seen their savings diminish [7] Social Implications - The cuts to welfare programs, including a 4% reduction in food assistance and over 1% in children's health insurance subsidies, suggest a return to a society where the working poor must work harder for less support [10][11] - The current economic environment is characterized by a strong dollar and high interest rates, which may lead to further cuts in education and housing subsidies if fiscal pressures continue [13] Consumer Sentiment - Despite rising stock markets, consumer confidence remains low, with many Americans expecting negative economic conditions in the near future [15] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" indicates a prioritization of corporate interests and fiscal strength over the welfare of ordinary workers, raising concerns about the long-term societal impact [15][17]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a decline on June 19, opening at $3,392.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,395.71, a low of $3,347.48, and closing at $3,369.18 [1] News Highlights - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK's, with Europe increasingly willing to accept a 10% baseline tariff [2] - Canada will adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21 [3] Geopolitical Situation - Reports indicate that President Trump is cautious about bombing Iran, partly due to concerns that a regime change could lead to a situation similar to Libya. The decision on whether to participate in Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities has been postponed for two weeks [4] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, holds 947.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 91.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 36.1%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 58.9% and 50 basis points at 5.0% [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop to a low of $3,347 during the trading day. The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with short-term resistance levels identified [7] - The trading strategy suggests a cautious approach, maintaining a bearish outlook for short-term trading [8]

美国至6月18日美联储利率决定(上限)4.5%，前值4.50%。 ...

黄金又逢震荡趋势何时转变？美联储利率凌晨来袭！TTPS主教练齐上阵，基本面技术面如何看？现在 正在直播，立即观看！ 相关链接 黄金行情讲解中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows and arbitrage tracking. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various commodities were reported. For example, the closing price of BMD's August palm oil was 4086.00, with a previous day's decline of 4.48% and an overnight decline of - 0.41%. Brent's August crude oil on ICE closed at 72.50, with a previous day's decline of - 3.56% and an overnight increase of 1.47% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of several currency exchange rates were also given, such as the US dollar index at 98.12 with a change of 0.01% [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions were presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China was 8840, with a basis of 400 and a basis change of - 90 [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes of imported soybeans from different regions were also provided, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 172 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 456 dollars per ton [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from June 21 - 25 shows that temperatures will be higher than normal, and precipitation will be normal to above the median [3]. - In the US Midwest, there will be scattered showers, which are not conducive to field operations. The overall weather pattern may be similar to last week, increasing soil moisture in the west but hindering field work [5]. - International supply - demand information includes a 4% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 15, an increase in palm oil exports, potential cost increases in Malaysia's oleochemical industry due to tax changes, and details on US soybean growth, export, and crushing data [7][8]. - Domestic supply - demand information shows an increase in the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil on June 16, changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, and changes in the commercial inventories of palm oil, soybean oil, and imported soybeans [13][14]. 04 宏观要闻 - International news includes the probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in June and July, the US June New York Fed manufacturing index, and OPEC's monthly report on global crude oil demand and production [17]. - Domestic news includes the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation, unemployment rates, industrial added - value, social consumer goods retail sales, and real - estate development data [19]. 05 资金流向 On June 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.11 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 2.867 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.977 billion yuan [22]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 3377.00 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.33% [1] - The ChiNext Index rose 0.12%, while the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.89%, and the Northern Exchange 50 Index dropped 3.11% [1] - On Monday, A-shares saw a broad rally led by innovative pharmaceuticals and military stocks, while food and beverage stocks like liquor declined [1] Economic Factors - A-shares faced a significant drop on Tuesday due to negative rumors regarding US-China trade talks, but recovered some losses by the end of the day [1] - Official announcements confirmed progress in US-China trade negotiations, leading to a rebound on Wednesday [1] - The market showed limited upward momentum on Thursday, as it was still uncertain about the details of the trade agreement [1] Geopolitical Influences - A-shares fell sharply on Friday due to escalating tensions in the Middle East following an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, with sectors like oil and gas, military, and precious metals seeing gains [1] Investment Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, the current low valuation of A-shares presents a good investment opportunity, and investors are advised to maintain a hold-and-watch strategy [2] - The potential for gradual accumulation of capital in A-shares exists, which could lead to a rise in market sentiment over time [2] Upcoming Events - Investors should monitor the details of US-China trade negotiations and the situation in the Middle East next week [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is also significant, as any inclination towards interest rate cuts could positively impact the A-share market [3] - Participation in the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19 is recommended for short-term investors [4]

经合组织预计今年美联储利率不会发生变化。如果通胀仍接近目标，一些央行可以继续降息。 ...