黄金又逢震荡趋势何时转变？美联储利率凌晨来袭！TTPS主教练齐上阵，基本面技术面如何看？现在 正在直播，立即观看！ 相关链接 黄金行情讲解中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows and arbitrage tracking. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various commodities were reported. For example, the closing price of BMD's August palm oil was 4086.00, with a previous day's decline of 4.48% and an overnight decline of - 0.41%. Brent's August crude oil on ICE closed at 72.50, with a previous day's decline of - 3.56% and an overnight increase of 1.47% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of several currency exchange rates were also given, such as the US dollar index at 98.12 with a change of 0.01% [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions were presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China was 8840, with a basis of 400 and a basis change of - 90 [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes of imported soybeans from different regions were also provided, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 172 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 456 dollars per ton [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from June 21 - 25 shows that temperatures will be higher than normal, and precipitation will be normal to above the median [3]. - In the US Midwest, there will be scattered showers, which are not conducive to field operations. The overall weather pattern may be similar to last week, increasing soil moisture in the west but hindering field work [5]. - International supply - demand information includes a 4% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 15, an increase in palm oil exports, potential cost increases in Malaysia's oleochemical industry due to tax changes, and details on US soybean growth, export, and crushing data [7][8]. - Domestic supply - demand information shows an increase in the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil on June 16, changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, and changes in the commercial inventories of palm oil, soybean oil, and imported soybeans [13][14]. 04 宏观要闻 - International news includes the probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in June and July, the US June New York Fed manufacturing index, and OPEC's monthly report on global crude oil demand and production [17]. - Domestic news includes the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation, unemployment rates, industrial added - value, social consumer goods retail sales, and real - estate development data [19]. 05 资金流向 On June 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.11 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 2.867 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.977 billion yuan [22]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 3377.00 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.33% [1] - The ChiNext Index rose 0.12%, while the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.89%, and the Northern Exchange 50 Index dropped 3.11% [1] - On Monday, A-shares saw a broad rally led by innovative pharmaceuticals and military stocks, while food and beverage stocks like liquor declined [1] Economic Factors - A-shares faced a significant drop on Tuesday due to negative rumors regarding US-China trade talks, but recovered some losses by the end of the day [1] - Official announcements confirmed progress in US-China trade negotiations, leading to a rebound on Wednesday [1] - The market showed limited upward momentum on Thursday, as it was still uncertain about the details of the trade agreement [1] Geopolitical Influences - A-shares fell sharply on Friday due to escalating tensions in the Middle East following an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, with sectors like oil and gas, military, and precious metals seeing gains [1] Investment Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, the current low valuation of A-shares presents a good investment opportunity, and investors are advised to maintain a hold-and-watch strategy [2] - The potential for gradual accumulation of capital in A-shares exists, which could lead to a rise in market sentiment over time [2] Upcoming Events - Investors should monitor the details of US-China trade negotiations and the situation in the Middle East next week [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is also significant, as any inclination towards interest rate cuts could positively impact the A-share market [3] - Participation in the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19 is recommended for short-term investors [4]

经合组织预计今年美联储利率不会发生变化。如果通胀仍接近目标，一些央行可以继续降息。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results, with Shanghai gold futures at 780.10 CNY per gram, up 0.10%, and Shanghai silver futures at 8263.00 CNY per kilogram, down 0.37% [1] - International precious metals saw an overall increase, with COMEX gold priced at 3329.60 USD per ounce, up 1.05%, and COMEX silver at 33.39 USD per ounce, up 0.63% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver were 775.22 CNY and 8236.00 CNY respectively, with their highest prices reaching 780.58 CNY and 8286.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in April, exceeding expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI also increased to 52.3 [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, lower than the previous week's 229,000 and below the expected 230,000, indicating a stable labor market [3] - Recent market analysis indicated that gold faced profit-taking pressure after a recent rally, with a stronger dollar acting as a negative factor, although the overall outlook for gold remains bullish due to global bond market volatility [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].

黄金行情前瞻中 黄金日内大跌100美元！美联储利率维持"等待"，后市金价应该维持空头趋势还是触底反弹？TTPS团队 交易学长正在直播中，点击观看！ 相关链接 ...

美国至5月7日美联储利率决定(上限) 4.5%，预期4.50%，前值4.50%。 ...

市场博弈利润源自错误，生存依赖自律，你的盈利，往往来自于他人的亏损。每一次价格的波动，都暗藏着市场参与者判断的偏差和决策的失误。然而，我 们无法预知下一刻谁会犯错，也无法保证自己永远站在正确的一方。在这场博弈中，唯一可控的，便是当自己犯错时，如何将损失控制在最小范围内。交易 的本质，就是在不断试错中等待他人的失误，并从中捕捉盈利的机会。 黄金分析： 鉴于当前不确定性加剧、关税政策落地、通胀预期升温以及家庭与企业信心下滑，市场普遍预计美联储本周将维持政策利率不变。美联储主席鲍威尔或暗示 不急于降息，并提及关税将推高通胀、拖累经济增长。随着关税实施，未来数月通胀将显著攀升，美国经济下半年恐陷入轻度衰退，三、四季度经济活动与 就业或双双收缩。老郑预计美联储今年7月和9月各降息25基点、2026年再降息两次的基准预测。 市场的风云变幻往往出人意料，此前空头主导的市场格局瞬间打破，多头力量强势崛起，推动金价一路上行。日内早间，金价快速自3320拉升至3385美元， 仅仅用了两天时间，收复了假期前所有的跌幅，黄金上涨的底层逻辑没有变过，美债危机已经是摆在眼前的事实了，其他的都是配角，特朗普所有的举动就 是为了解决美债危机 ...

白宫经济委员会主任Hassett：美联储将决定在利率上想要采取什么行动。 我不对美联储利率发表评论。 ...