Group 1 - The international precious metals market experienced a significant surge, with gold prices breaking through $5,100 per ounce for the first time since January 30, reflecting a 1.54% increase [1] - Spot silver also accelerated, surpassing $85 per ounce, marking a new high since February 5, with an expanded increase of 6% [3] - Analysts are closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which was delayed due to a government shutdown, as it is expected to influence Federal Reserve policy and subsequently impact gold prices [6] Group 2 - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price targets, with Societe Generale predicting a rise to $6,000 per ounce and Wells Fargo increasing its target to $6,300 per ounce [7] - JPMorgan forecasts that if private sector demand continues to grow, gold prices could reach approximately $8,000 per ounce by the end of the decade [8] - The World Silver Association reports a projected shortfall in the silver market for the sixth consecutive year by 2026, with a gap of 67 million ounces, driven by factors such as supply shortages and geopolitical tensions [9]

| 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 105072 | 0 | 市场传出周大福春节后将对黄金产品调价的消息，引发行业及消费者广泛关注。周大福门店核实，此次 调价或于3月中旬正式启动，目前部分门店已收到相关通知，涨价重点集中在一口价产品，预计涨幅或 为15%-30%，但具体调价细节及执行时间仍以到店价格标签调整为准。 美国2025年12月零售销售环比意外零增长，显著弱于预期值0.4%的增幅，前值为增长0.6%。核心零售 销售环比下降0.1%，预期为增长0.3%。主要依赖工资增长的低收入群体消费表现依然疲弱。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周三（2月11日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计105072千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 沪金主力盘内震荡偏强，周三（2月11日）黄金期货开盘价1122.68元/克，截至目前最高1132.60元/克， 最低1116.40元/克。截止发稿报1130.40元/克，涨幅0.56%，成交量为217933手，持仓为160510手，日持 仓增加3600手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场 ...

宏观层面，今年票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈马克称，当前货币政策处于良好区间，美联储或长期维持利 率不变。目前美国通胀仍偏高，今年通胀率或接近3%，需有力证据证明价格持续回落。CME观察工具 显示，美联储3月维持利率不变的概率达80.4%。美国商务部季节性调整数据显示，12月整体零售销售 额环比零增长，远低于市场预期的0.4%，同比仅增2.4%。疲弱的零售销售数据与不及预期的就业成本 指数叠加，进一步强化了市场对美国经济动能放缓的预期。 基本面，供应上，近期电解铝运行产能变化不大，产量小幅增长；需求上，当前处于季节性消费淡季， 且春节临近，铝价波动不定，部分企业提前放假，铝加工企业开工率持续下滑，下游接货意愿低迷，需 求疲软。铝锭社库持续累积，当前库存高于近两年同期，对铝价上行形成压制。不过长期来看，铝供应 增量有限，需求长期向好，供需缺口预期强化，沪铝长期驱动未变。 总体来看，宏观情绪不定，基本面驱动力弱，国内春节休假氛围浓，下游消费意愿偏差、备库近完成， 且库存累积，今现铝或下跌。 长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美指续跌支撑金属估值但油股表现低迷施压，隔夜伦铝收平；国内春节休假 氛围浓，下游消费意愿偏差、 ...

美联储于2025年末启动降息，劳动力市场显露疲态是推动该决策的关键因素之一。当前市场认为美联储 3月会议维持利率不变的概率为78.4%，但对4月会议维持利率不变的预期已降至57.3%，较一周前的70% 出现明显下滑，市场对美联储后续政策走向的犹豫情绪加剧。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 2026年2月11日，市场聚焦当日即将公布的美国1月非农就业数据，欧元多头情绪逐步积累，美欧央行之 间的政策差异，成为支撑欧元的重要潜在推力。 美国1月非农就业报告原定于2月6日发布，因部分政府部门停摆推迟至今日。除常规月度新增就业人数 和失业率数据外，本次报告还将包含截至2025年3月的年度就业数据修订，初步估计显示就业人数可能 下修91.1万人。市场预期1月新增非农就业人数6.9万人，失业率维持在4.4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The US economy still faces downward pressure, which is bearish for silver, and silver may fluctuate passively following gold, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The domestic methanol market has high开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, but the price may fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment. - The manganese - silicon market remains in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost. - The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The steel price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday. - Fed officials have dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, but geopolitical and US political uncertainties still support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility. - The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal. - The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic palm oil price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center. - The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. - Copper production in January exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. - Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand. - PX supply and demand will weaken during the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, mainly supported by geopolitics, and short - term trading is recommended. - The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - PVC production is stable, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: US retail sales data shows economic downward pressure, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold and fluctuate, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [1]. - **Gold**: Fed officials' remarks dampen interest - rate cut expectations, but geopolitical and political uncertainties support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US commercial crude inventory increased, and the market is waiting for the second - round negotiation between the US and Iran. Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, with supply pressure still existing [10]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic methanol开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PX**: PX load is expected to run at a high level in February, but supply - demand will weaken during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing rapidly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production will decline during the holiday, and imports are also expected to fall. The demand side has support, and the price may fluctuate widely [3]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon market has loose supply and demand, with high upstream inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost [3]. - **Steel**: The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [4]. - **Copper**: January copper production exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand [7]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand [7]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. - **Pig**: The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal [5]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility [5].

5.克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周二表示，在对经济活动持"谨慎乐观"看法的背景下，美联储今年没 有迫切需要调整利率政策立场。鉴于可能的前景，"在利率目标区间的设定上，我们可能会维持不 变相当一段时间"。她表示，"我认为我们处于一个良好的位置，可以将联邦基金利率维持在当前 水平，观察形势如何发展"，货币政策最有可能接近既不抑制也不刺激经济活动的立场。"与其试 图对利率进行精细调整，我更倾向于在评估近期降息影响、并观察经济表现的过程中保持耐心。" 哈马克指出经济前景依然向好，但同时强调通胀仍然"过高"，并表示在今年通胀可能停留在 3% 左右的风险下，价格压力回落至关重要。在招聘方面，相关信息显示当前状况相对稳定。 6.据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 19.6%，维持利率不变的概率为 80.4%。 美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 36%，维持利率不变的概率为 58.8%，累计降息 50 个基 点的概率为 5.3%。到 6 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 49.3%。 评 论 及 策 略 贵金属震荡整理。市场等待本周美国就业和通胀数据公布，对后续降息预期或造成一定影响 ...

来源：芝麻AI 一、国际新闻 国际贵金属市场呈现显著上涨态势，现货黄金价格持续攀升，先后突破5030美元/盎司、5040美元/盎司 和5050美元/盎司关口，日内涨幅分别达0.20%、0.34%和0.53%[1][2][3]。纽约期金同步走强，依次突破 5050美元/盎司、5060美元/盎司和5070美元/盎司，日内涨幅分别为0.39%、0.63%和0.78%[4][5][6]。 白银市场同样表现活跃，现货白银和纽约期银均突破81美元/盎司，日内涨幅分别为0.43%和0.82%，但 随后出现回调，现货白银失守80美元/盎司，日内跌幅达3.98%，纽约期银同步跌至80美元/盎司下方， 日内跌2.86%[7][8][9][10]。 外汇市场方面，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至1.07%，最新报154.20[11]。 加密货币市场波动加剧，比特币价格跌破68000美元，日内跌3.13%[12]。 美国方面，总统特朗普就经济政策发表多项言论，称"美国利率本应再低2个百分点"，希望最高法院支 持低利率政策，并表示伊朗希望达成协议，若无法达成协议将采取"非常严厉的行动"，包括考虑向地区 派遣航空母舰及增派部队[13][14][15 ...

当地时间周二，美联储今年两位票委发声，她们表态均偏鹰派，认为利率可能会在较长时间内维持不 变，除非美国劳动力市场出现新的、实质性的疲软迹象，以避免重新推高通胀。 克利夫兰联储主席：利率或较长时间内不变 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克（Beth Hammack）最新表示，在美联储官员们评估不断公布的经济数据期 间，利率可能会在较长时间内维持不变。 哈马克周二表示："与其试图对联邦基金利率进行精细调节，我更倾向于保持耐心，在评估近期降息影 响的同时，观察经济的运行情况。根据我的预测，我们可能会在相当长的一段时间内按兵不动。" 哈马克此前多次敦促联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的同僚在降息问题上保持谨慎，以避免重新推高通 胀。她支持上个月的决定，即在2025年末连续三次降息之后，选择维持利率不变。 哈马克分享了一种"谨慎乐观"的前景，称财政支持、较低的利率以及其他因素将为美国经济增长提供动 力，从而提振劳动力市场。她预计今年通胀将有所缓和。 哈马克强调，如果经济表现不如预期，美联储官员们需要在政策应对上保持灵活性；她也表示，在必要 时对加息持开放态度。"目前来看，联邦基金利率走向更高或更低的风险大致是平衡的。历史告诉我 们， ...

美联储哈玛克：美联储的利率政策可能会"在相当长一段时间内"保持不变。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

2月9日，加密货币市场在经历上周的剧烈抛售潮后，正步入一个关键的修整与重新定价阶段。RYOEX 表示，尽管比特币目前勉强维持在 70000 美元关口上方，但技术面与情绪面的双重背离暗示市场尚未触 及真正的宏观底部。随着投资者对风险资产的胃纳缩减，交易端对于价格回踩 60000 美元甚至 50000 美 元心理价位的预期正在显著升温。在缺乏强有力反转信号的前提下，当前的震荡更倾向于是一场针对杠 杆盘的清理，而非新一轮牛市的起点。 综合评估当前的市场环境，比特币正在经历一个极其复杂的"寻底"过程。虽然从长周期来看，DXY 美 元指数的走势可能重演 2021 年的轮动逻辑，为 BTC 迈向 146000 美元的"终极巅峰"蓄势，但短期内市 场必须先通过 50000 美元区间的极端压力测试。RYOEX 认为，在波动率逐渐回归平衡之前，建议投资 者保持审慎，密切关注矿工抛售潮的平息点以及美元指数在十年交易通道边界的突破方向，以精准捕捉 真正的战略性建仓机会。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 2月9日，加密货币市场在经历上周的剧烈抛售潮后，正步入一个关键的修整与重新定价阶段。RYOEX 表示，尽管 ...