Core Viewpoint - The situation surrounding Lisa Cook's potential dismissal from the Federal Reserve highlights the intersection of legal authority, political influence, and the integrity of financial regulatory bodies [1][5][6]. Group 1: Dismissal Announcement - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, citing constitutional powers and the Federal Reserve Act [2]. - Cook, appointed by President Biden in 2022, has a term that extends until 2038, which complicates the dismissal process [2]. Group 2: Allegations of Misconduct - Trump accused Cook of mortgage fraud, claiming she made false statements regarding her primary residence in mortgage documents [4]. - The allegations are considered sensitive, as they could undermine Cook's credibility as a regulator [5]. Group 3: Legal and Procedural Context - The Federal Reserve Act allows the President to dismiss board members for "just cause," but the definition of "just cause" is not clearly defined in legal terms [5]. - Legal experts suggest that if the allegations against Cook are substantiated, her dismissal could be legally justified, but the outcome of any potential legal challenge remains uncertain [6]. Group 4: Political Implications - The move to dismiss Cook may reflect broader political motivations, as she aligns with the mainstream position of the Federal Reserve, contrary to Trump's preferences [7]. - The involvement of the FHFA director, appointed by Trump, in providing evidence against Cook raises questions about the political motivations behind the allegations [8].

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - Silver futures are currently trading above 9367, with an opening price of 9168 per kilogram, and a current price of 9374, reflecting a 1.67% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 9418 per kilogram, while the lowest was 9152 per kilogram, indicating a bullish short-term trend in the silver futures market [1] - The Shanghai silver market shows a strong upward trend, opening around 9410, with potential to rise to 9550 if the momentum continues [6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, opened the door for a potential rate cut in September, citing the need to adjust policy in response to changing economic risks [3] - Powell highlighted that inflation risks are skewed to the upside, with tariff-related inflation pressures becoming more evident [3] - The recent non-farm payroll report indicated that the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs last month, with downward revisions of approximately 250,000 jobs for May and June, suggesting a slowdown in job growth [4]

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a decline, with all three major indices closing lower, marking the S&P 500's fifth consecutive day of losses. The Dow Jones fell by 152.81 points (0.34%) to 44,785.50, the Nasdaq dropped by 72.55 points (0.34%) to 21,100.31, and the S&P 500 decreased by 25.61 points (0.40%) to 6,370.17 [3][2]. Chinese Assets - In contrast to the US market, Chinese assets showed strength, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.35%. Notable gains were seen in companies such as Xpeng Motors, which increased by nearly 12%, and NIO, which rose over 9%. Other companies like Tiger Brokers and Miniso also saw gains exceeding 6% [5][2]. Federal Reserve Commentary - Some Federal Reserve officials expressed a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for continued moderate tightening to address high inflation levels. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that there is no reason to lower interest rates at this time, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested a potential rate cut later this year, albeit with significant uncertainty [7][8]. Legal Developments - A New York appellate court overturned a $500 million civil fraud penalty against former President Trump, which he described as a politically motivated attack. The New York Attorney General's office has since filed an appeal against this ruling [10][11][9]. International Relations - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the initiation of ceasefire negotiations regarding Gaza, aiming to secure the release of all Israeli captives and end the conflict under acceptable conditions. However, there are currently no plans for an Israeli delegation to negotiate in Qatar or Egypt [15][14].

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, which impacts the monetary environment, real estate, consumer finance, and the overall economic outlook [1][10] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with an annual rate of 2.7%. The core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, remaining above the Fed's 2% target. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, with an annual rate potentially reaching 3% [3][7] Employment Market - The employment market remains resilient, but monthly job growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a low of 4.2%. This combination of high inflation and slightly cooling employment makes the monetary policy path more delicate [7][10] Federal Reserve Meeting - Investors should pay close attention to the upcoming annual central bank meeting, as speeches may provide important signals regarding future policy direction. The market widely anticipates a 0.25 percentage point rate cut in September, with the possibility of a similar adjustment later in the year [7][10] Investment Strategy - The company advises that market volatility may increase until interest rate expectations become clearer. Real estate, bonds, and interest rate-sensitive assets will be directly affected. The dollar's performance will largely depend on changes in interest rate expectations, with potential downward pressure if stronger rate cut signals are released [10]

Group 1 - President Trump may announce the next Federal Reserve chair "slightly earlier" than expected, having narrowed down candidates to three or four [1] - Trump has criticized the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and has previously called for Powell's resignation, although he later stated he would wait until Powell's term ends in May [1] - The potential announcement of a successor before Powell's term ends could create uncertainty in the market, leading to a "shadow Fed" effect [1] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin mentioned that the administration is considering up to 11 candidates for the Fed chair position, despite Trump's shorter list [1] - Trump has intensified pressure on Powell, including threats of a major lawsuit regarding the Fed's renovation project, which has faced cost overruns [1] - Trump believes interest rates should be lowered by three to four percentage points, arguing that high borrowing costs are harming American businesses and consumers [1] Group 3 - Powell defended the Fed's interest rate policy, citing uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation [1] - Recent data showed a rebound in U.S. core inflation for July, easing concerns about price increases driven by tariffs and raising expectations for a potential rate cut in September [1]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's consideration of a major lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due to significant cost overruns on the Fed's headquarters renovation project, which escalated from an initial estimate of $50 million to $3 billion [1][3][4] - Trump's criticism of Powell includes a call for immediate interest rate cuts, labeling Powell as ineffective and attributing economic damage to his delayed actions [4][6] - The renovation project has become a focal point for Trump to exert pressure on Powell and the Federal Reserve, especially after the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates in July [6][7] Group 2 - Following the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, Trump commented that tariffs have not raised inflation and that American consumers are not bearing the cost of tariffs [7] - Trump's remarks on the CPI coincided with a notable market reaction, where the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield initially fell but later recovered, reflecting market sensitivity to his statements [4][6] - Trump's ongoing efforts to influence the Federal Reserve include nominating his chief economic advisor, Stephen Moore, for a position on the Fed's board, which requires Senate approval and is seen as a strategic move to secure a long-term successor for Powell [6]

【环球时报报道 记者 倪浩】"关税政策对消费者物价的影响才刚刚开始"，彭博社11日援引华尔街投行高盛的研究报告称，美国消费者和企业正在 承受关税政策带来的新一轮压力。报告显示，截至6月美国企业已吸收超过50%的关税成本，而随着企业提价，负担将更多地转嫁给消费者，预计 消费者承担的关税成本比例将升至67%。与此同时，作为近年来美国大部分新增就业岗位的创造者，美国小企业正艰难应对新关税政策。美国最 大商业游说团体美国商会本月估算，在最新的关税政策于8月7日生效前，约23.6万家小企业进口商面临的年度关税冲击已达2020亿美元。高盛表 示，关税政策对物价的影响给本就因降息节奏预期不断变化而动荡的市场增添了更多不确定性。 英国《金融时报》在美国中西部城市圣路易斯的调查显示，企业们表示近期上游供应商提高了大量产品的价格，有时涨幅高达30%，使他们几乎 只能将成本转嫁给消费者。圣路易斯华盛顿大学供应链、运营与技术教授帕诺斯·库维利斯说："供应链中还有库存，但正在逐渐消耗，很快关税 对价格的影响就会显现。中小企业将受到最大冲击。" 报道称，小型企业雇用了美国46%的劳动者，约5900万人，占美国GDP的44%。这可能对整 ...

美银利率策略师周一发表报告，下调美国国债息率预测，以反映预计近期的经济数据将推动美联储改变 风险评估。该行将两年期美债息率年底预测从之前的3.75%下调至3.5%，十年期美债息率预测则从4.5% 下调至4.25%。该行仍预期美联储将维持利率不变至明年下半年，但认为疲软的劳动市场数据增加利率 下行的风险。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is in the process of selecting a new chair, with candidates including Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Lori Logan among others [1][2] - President Trump is expected to announce the final decision on the new chair in the fall, following interviews conducted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenette [1][3] - The nomination of Stephen Milan to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board is pending Senate confirmation, which has led to a more measured approach in selecting the new chair [1][4] Group 2 - The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for September 16-17, and the future chair's options may be more limited than usual [3][4] - Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have expressed differing opinions on interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut during the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting [4][5] - Philip Jefferson is noted as a potential first Black chair of the Federal Reserve, and he has supported the decision to maintain stable interest rates this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown volatility, recently bouncing back to $3,400 after dipping to $3,268, indicating a fluctuating market sentiment and the ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish investors [1] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has cooled significantly compared to the first quarter, with many investors waiting for gold prices to drop to around $700 to buy in, similar to those who previously waited for prices to reach $600 and $500 [1] Investor Behavior - Short sellers are actively seeking reasons to justify their positions, believing that if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts, gold prices will plummet due to the principle of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [1]