创新药及产业链 26 年展望 20251123 摘要 Q&A 2026 年创新药行业的医保政策有哪些重要变化？ 医保谈判持续深化，肿瘤药仍是重点，创新药获支持但降幅或较低。首 次设立商保创新药目录，为高价值创新药提供第二支付路径，利好 CAR-T、ADC 等高值创新药。 集采政策侧重稳临床、保质量，降幅趋稳，关注疗效而非仅低价。引入 锚点价和复活机制，提高 GMP 生产门槛，保障仿制药质量，生物类似 药集采或在 2026 年试点。 中国制药企业国际化进入 2.0 阶段，BD 交易活跃，总额同比增长 60%。企业需实现临床、研发和商业国际化，中美双报及国际多中心临 床成标配。 创新技术关注 ADC、I/O 及小核酸领域。ADC 方面，科伦博泰海外数据 及 BLA 递交受关注；I/O 领域，康方生物 AK112 及信达生物 PD-1/IL-2 数据值得期待；小核酸领域，诺华高血脂产品销售峰值预计可达 30 亿 美元。 GLP-1 市场前景广阔，礼来、罗氏、阿斯利康等公司将在心脑血管、糖 尿病及肥胖领域发布关键临床数据，推动行业发展。 2025 年的医保谈判已经完成，结果将在 12 月的第一个周末公布，并于 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "de-redundancy" and "professionalization" in family medicine cabinets reflects a shift towards rational health management, emphasizing "precise medication" over "blind stockpiling" of drugs, driven by improved accessibility to medical resources and services [1][2][3] Group 1: Evolution of Family Medicine Cabinets - The transition from stockpiling medications to precise management is exemplified by individuals like Ms. Li, who now only keeps essential medications, indicating a growing trust in public healthcare systems [2][3] - The rise of community pharmacists and family doctors has shifted the focus from self-service to professional guidance, enhancing personalized health management and efficient use of limited medical resources [2][3] Group 2: Challenges in Medication Management - Elderly patients often face medication management challenges, such as mixing prescription drugs with health supplements, leading to potential health risks due to drug interactions [4][5] - Misunderstandings about medication instructions and the belief that "more is better" can lead to non-compliance and adverse health outcomes among elderly patients [4][5] Group 3: Community Pharmacy Services - The emergence of community pharmacy services has made medication management more accessible, allowing for personalized consultations and medication tracking for elderly patients [7][8] - Community pharmacies play a crucial role in reducing the economic burden of medication costs through insurance policies that cover a significant portion of chronic disease medications [7][11] Group 4: Insurance Policies and Accessibility - Current insurance policies provide substantial coverage for chronic disease medications, significantly alleviating the financial burden on elderly patients [11][12] - However, there are still gaps in awareness and understanding of these policies among elderly patients, which can hinder their access to necessary medications [11][12] Group 5: Future Directions - The potential development of "smart medicine cabinets" linked to health management systems could enhance medication adherence and health monitoring for families [12] - A comprehensive approach that combines professional guidance, policy benefits, and family support is essential to address the medication challenges faced by the elderly population [12]

社交媒体上经常流传"医保额度年底清零"的说法，隔一段时间就有人翻出来炒一次。最近还有关于"新 增房东税""全民强制社保"等的传言。这些传言属实吗？ ——人民网网友 明确地说，"医保额度年底清零"的说法本身就含糊不清，但年年辟谣，又年年传谣。类似的谣言还有不 少。 咱先把医保的事儿说清楚：基本医保制度是一种社会保险，政府、单位、个人各出一部分钱，放在一个 大资金池里，为大家提供医疗保障，在制度设计上根本没有"清零"的政策。 参加医保，是在政府支持下的互济。济他人，也济自己。 我国基本医保分为职工医保和城乡居民医保。职工医保设立个人账户和统筹账户，居民医保更多依靠统 筹账户来报销。医保个人账户中的钱都属于参保人，不仅可以本人用，还可以家庭共济，甚至可以继 承。 不论个人账户还是统筹账户，都不可能"清零"。 部分参保人被"医保额度年底清零"的说法误导，极少数定点药店或医疗机构可能会利用参保人"不用就 亏了"的心理，诱导其突击就诊、突击买药。这不但没必要，而且有弊端。 从个人看，即使医保报销一部分，个人仍需支付自付部分。过度就诊或囤药，既浪费时间，也浪费金 钱。 具体到我们每个人，不妨提高对事关切身利益的惠民政策的认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article addresses the misconceptions surrounding social insurance policies, particularly the false claims about "medical insurance limits resetting at year-end" and other rumors like "new landlord tax" and "universal mandatory social security" [1][4]. Group 1: Medical Insurance - The basic medical insurance system in China is a social insurance scheme where the government, employers, and individuals contribute to a common fund, and there is no policy for "resetting" limits [1][3]. - Medical insurance consists of employee insurance and urban-rural resident insurance, with personal accounts belonging to the insured and available for family use and inheritance [2]. - Misunderstandings about the "medical insurance limit resetting" can lead to unnecessary medical visits and purchases, wasting both time and money, and potentially harming the interests of all insured individuals [3]. Group 2: Misinterpretation of Policies - The "Housing Rental Regulations" have been misinterpreted as a signal for a "new landlord tax" or rent increases, while the actual focus is on addressing issues like false listings and deposit disputes in the rental market [4]. - The new judicial interpretation regarding labor disputes has been misrepresented as "universal mandatory social security," but it merely reiterates existing laws requiring employers to pay social security for full-time employees [4]. Group 3: Communication and Public Understanding - Misinterpretations of welfare policies can stem from media sensationalism, complex terminology, and the influence of interested parties, highlighting the need for collaborative efforts from government, media, and experts to enhance public understanding [4][5]. - Government departments should improve their communication strategies to clarify policies and counter misinformation effectively, as demonstrated by the timely responses from Shenzhen's health and insurance authorities [4]. - Media outlets have a responsibility to disseminate accurate information and educate the public on policy implications, emphasizing the importance of continuous communication regarding policies that affect people's lives [5].

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, causing negative impacts across various industries and raising economic concerns among officials [1][3][21] - A potential agreement to end the shutdown has been announced by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, although it is still uncertain [5][6] Government Shutdown Impact - The shutdown has affected military bases overseas, with employees facing unpaid salaries, particularly in European countries like Italy, Portugal, Germany, and Spain [9][13] - Italy has formally requested payment for its local employees at U.S. military bases, with around 2,000 Italian employees at Aviano Air Base and Vicenza Army Base not receiving their October salaries [10][12] - Other countries, such as Portugal and Germany, have also had to provide temporary financial support to local employees, hoping for reimbursement once the shutdown ends [16] Aviation Industry Effects - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced a 10% reduction in flight capacity at 40 major airports due to staff shortages caused by the shutdown [17] - On November 8, over 7,500 flights were delayed and more than 1,500 were canceled, with the situation worsening on November 9, when cancellations exceeded 2,000 [18][19] Economic Forecast - U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned that if the shutdown continues, the GDP growth for the fourth quarter could be halved or even turn negative [21][22] - White House economic advisors have echoed these concerns, indicating that prolonged shutdown could lead to a negative growth rate [21][22]

故事与钱相关，但又不完全是这样。 文 ｜ 朱秋雨 编辑 ｜ 赵佳佳 来源｜ 南风窗（ID：SouthReviews） 封面来源 ｜ 郭嘉亮 摄 以下文章来源于南风窗 ，作者朱秋雨 钟诗艺 南风窗 . 冷静地思考，热情地生活。 李晓明的世界很久没有那么吵闹过。 在窗帘紧闭、工友来来去去、缝纫机喋喋不休的工厂里，24岁的平车工李晓明度过了非常忙碌的夏天。他要上班，每天做重复性的活——缝裤袋和腰带， 从早上9时一直到晚上9时。在成品服装堆积而成的世界中间，他没有太大的野心和欲望，心愿都是很微小的： 身体不出差错； 夏天多出点汗（这样才能多喝水）； 想看看大海。 这些心愿是他抵达广州后，才开始一步步在脑海里畅想的。两年前，他得了靠透析机才能续命的尿毒症，终日体会到人生的虚无，曾以为"人生完了，以 后干啥也干不了"。他想过从七楼的家跳下去，但没付诸行动。"说白了，还不敢死，还想活。" 2024年，想活下去的李晓明，与35岁的阿苏、18岁的林敏、54岁的宝姨，都在互联网刷到了同一类信息——在广州，有几家特殊的民营血液透析中心 （以下简称：血透中心）。到这些血透中心透析的病人，可以获得"惊喜福利"：一份工作。 处在绝境里的 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The company operates in the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, facing challenges due to policy changes and market dynamics, particularly related to the "Duyiwai" product and its impact on revenue and profitability [2][3][9]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue for the first three quarters declined by over 50% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the "Duyiwai" centralized procurement, leading to significant drops in both sales volume and price [2][3]. - The medical services segment reported revenue of 2.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.88%, with a profit margin of 6.5%, down by 1.5 percentage points [3]. - The company managed to stabilize outpatient visits at approximately 800,000 per quarter, with outpatient average costs around 270 yuan [4]. Cost Management - The company implemented cost control measures, resulting in a 35% reduction in sales expenses and a 23% decrease in management expenses year-on-year [2][8]. - The expected sales expense ratio for the next year is anticipated to remain similar to the current year, while management expenses are projected to decrease further [8]. Hospital Operations and Capacity Expansion - The bed occupancy rate is close to 80%, with plans to add 2,000 new beds across various hospitals, including Siyang Hospital and Chongzhou Second Hospital [2][6]. - The company is actively adjusting its patient admission strategies in response to changes in medical insurance payment policies [5][6]. Market Outlook - Following the implementation of centralized procurement for "Duyiwai," the average sales price dropped by 55%, and sales volume decreased by 36% in the first three quarters [14]. - A rebound in sales is expected in the fourth quarter, with projections indicating that total revenue could reach 60% of the total from the first three quarters [14][19]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing the performance of the "Duyiwai" brand through product specification changes, expanding sales capabilities, and entering new markets [17][18]. - There are ongoing efforts to inject strategic investments into the "Duyiwai" brand to strengthen its market position [18]. Regulatory and Policy Challenges - The company is adapting to healthcare policy changes by restructuring its service offerings and optimizing cost structures to maintain profitability [20][21]. - The introduction of DRG (Diagnosis-Related Group) payment models is being managed to stabilize revenue streams, with no significant new instances of payment refusals reported [10][11]. Shareholder Dynamics - Significant changes occurred among the top ten shareholders, with some shares being sold off due to judicial auctions, while stable institutional investors have increased their holdings, indicating confidence in the company's future [16]. Additional Important Insights - The company is actively pursuing health technology asset injections to enhance its growth potential, despite regulatory challenges [22]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of a recovery in the fourth quarter as operational adjustments take effect [19].

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing efforts in Zhenjiang to enhance the multi-tiered medical insurance system, with a focus on increasing public awareness and participation in health insurance programs [1][2] Group 1: Insurance Participation and Financials - As of September 2023, Zhenjiang has achieved a basic medical insurance enrollment of 2.77 million people, with total insurance fund income of 6.459 billion yuan and total expenditure of 6 billion yuan from January to September, indicating a stable and sustainable fund operation [1] - A personal story shared during the event illustrates the financial relief provided by the insurance system, where a resident's father underwent surgery costing 53,000 yuan, with the insurance fund covering 37,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Public Awareness Campaigns - The city is conducting a month-long promotional campaign themed "China's Medical Insurance, Lifelong Protection," involving multiple departments to target various demographics including newborns, students, flexible workers, and the elderly [2] - The campaign includes community outreach, policy explanations, and distribution of promotional materials to foster a better understanding of medical insurance policies and encourage enrollment [2] - The city aims to provide personalized services and communication strategies to ensure that insurance policies are effectively conveyed to the public, thereby promoting universal participation in health insurance [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has repeatedly rejected both Democratic and Republican short-term funding proposals, leading to a government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years [1][3] - Vice President Vance warned that prolonged shutdowns could result in layoffs within the Trump administration [1][2] Group 1: Legislative Actions - The Senate voted against the Democratic proposal with a vote of 47 in favor and 53 against, and the Republican proposal was also rejected despite receiving support from three Democratic senators, resulting in a 55 to 45 vote [3] - The Republican proposal aimed to fund the government until November 21 and included an additional $88 million for security, but did not include healthcare provisions demanded by Democrats [3] - The Democratic alternative sought to extend funding until October 31 and included provisions for extending Obamacare subsidies and reversing cuts to Medicaid [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics - Republican leaders stated they would not modify the temporary funding bill passed by the House, with House Speaker Mike Johnson asserting there was nothing to negotiate [4] - Senate Republican leader John Thune blamed Democrats for the deadlock, while Democratic leader Chuck Schumer accused Republicans of attempting to coerce Democratic support for the temporary resolution [4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The government shutdown has led to hundreds of thousands of federal employees facing unpaid leave, with critical economic data releases potentially delayed, adding uncertainty to Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [2][5] - Key reports, including employment and inflation data, may be postponed, complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions [5] - Historical data suggests that a government shutdown can significantly impact GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a reduction of 15 basis points per week of shutdown [5] Group 4: Layoff Considerations - The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has instructed federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs beyond traditional temporary furloughs [6] - The Trump administration plans to freeze $18 billion in federal infrastructure project funding, directly affecting projects in Democratic leaders' districts [6] - Some Republican senators expressed concerns that aggressive layoff strategies could provoke voter backlash and complicate future legislative efforts [6]

Core Points - The U.S. government has officially shut down for the first time in nearly seven years due to a failure to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill, primarily over healthcare benefits [1][2] - Approximately 750,000 federal employees may be forced into unpaid leave, although historically, they receive back pay once the government reopens [3] - The shutdown will disrupt various public services, including delays in economic data releases and processing of passport and visa applications [8][9] Group 1: Government Shutdown Overview - The shutdown occurred after both the Republican and Democratic parties failed to pass their respective funding proposals, with a 60-vote threshold needed in the Senate [2] - The White House budget director indicated that federal employees should report to work to initiate an orderly shutdown plan [2] - The shutdown is a result of a funding gap, as Congress has not passed the necessary appropriations bills for the new fiscal year [5] Group 2: Impact on Federal Services - Essential services related to law enforcement and public safety will continue, but employees in these roles will work without pay [9] - Non-essential services, such as national park facilities and certain economic data reports, will be suspended [8][9] - Private companies relying on federal contracts will face revenue losses, and employees in these sectors typically do not receive back pay during shutdowns [10]