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互联网巨头「卷」向长音频,腾讯并购喜马拉雅「传言再起」
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 04:37
Core Viewpoint - The audio economy is emerging as a significant sector, with major internet companies like Tencent and ByteDance diversifying into audio content to capitalize on its growth potential, as evidenced by the increasing user base and market size projections [3][4][21]. Group 1: Market Growth and Potential - In 2024, the online audio user base in China is projected to reach 540 million, with the market size expected to grow from 568.82 billion yuan in 2024 to over 740 billion yuan by 2029 [3][4]. - The audio industry has seen a dramatic increase in market size, growing from 30.76 billion yuan in 2017 to 568.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 17.5-fold increase over seven years [4][10]. - The demand for audio content is driven by societal pressures and the need for companionship, with audio providing a means to engage during various activities such as exercising, commuting, and relaxing [5][8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major players like ByteDance, Tencent, and NetEase are entering the audio space, with platforms like Himalaya, Qingting FM, and Lizhi gaining traction [8][9]. - As of the end of 2023, Himalaya leads the online audio industry with a user penetration rate of 77.8%, significantly higher than its competitors [9]. - The audio sector is characterized by strong network effects, where a rich content ecosystem attracts and retains users, as demonstrated by Himalaya's partnerships with over 220 publishers and 290,000 active content creators [12][15]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Himalaya reported a revenue of 6.16 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 56.3% and an adjusted net profit of 224 million yuan, indicating a sustainable business model [12][13]. - The company has achieved profitability for nine consecutive quarters, showcasing its ability to generate consistent revenue [13][28]. - Despite the strong fundamentals, investor sentiment remains cautious, leading to undervaluation of audio unicorns like Himalaya [11][21]. Group 4: Strategic Opportunities - The potential acquisition of Himalaya by Tencent could enhance user growth and content synergy, leveraging Tencent's vast user base and technological capabilities [24][26]. - Alternatively, a financial investment from Tencent could provide Himalaya with necessary capital while allowing it to maintain operational independence [26]. - Regardless of the acquisition outcome, the audio industry is poised for a new phase of high-quality development driven by AI and evolving user needs [28].