Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by market reactions to U.S. President Trump's comments regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alongside economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the overall monetary policy outlook [1][2][4][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility, initially dropping to $3319.58 per ounce due to a strong dollar, before surging over $50 to reach a three-week high of $3377.17 following news of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell [1][2]. - Trump's subsequent denial of the dismissal plan led to a narrowing of gold's gains, closing at $3347.38, up 0.68% [2]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25% to 98.34, influenced by Trump's comments, which alleviated concerns over the dollar's credibility [1]. - The U.S. bond market reacted similarly, with the 30-year Treasury yield peaking at 5.08% before settling at 5.014%, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.466% [1]. - The June PPI data showed no month-over-month increase, contrasting with a 0.3% rise in May, indicating subdued inflationary pressures that support gold prices [4]. - Year-over-year, the PPI increased by 2.3%, suggesting ongoing inflation concerns, particularly due to tariffs [4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a critical factor for gold prices, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts influenced by inflation forecasts and economic growth projections [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently oscillating within a key trading range of $3300 to $3360, indicating ongoing market contention [7]. - Short-term movements have seen gold test lower levels before rebounding, suggesting a potential for further volatility as traders await a breakout direction [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates [4][5]. - Trump expresses a desire for significant interest rate cuts, suggesting reductions of 100 to 250 basis points, and criticizes Powell for not supporting lower rates [4][5]. - The article notes that Trump feels misled by Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's actions and threatens to dismiss him if necessary [4]. Group 2 - The article presents various economic indicators, including a CPI annual rate of -0.25% and a rising unemployment rate of +2.3% [5]. - It outlines the historical context of interest rates under different administrations, indicating a trend of dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's policies [5]. - The article emphasizes Trump's stance that as long as interest rates are not lowered, he will remain unhappy with the Federal Reserve's performance [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The July 31st hearing of the US Federal Appellate Court may set the tone for subsequent tariff frictions. If the court does not support the new tariff policy, more trading partners may announce counter - measures, causing greater chaos in the US financial market. If it supports, the market may be relatively calm. Concerns about stagflation risks and trading partners selling US Treasuries are the biggest risk points in the US financial market [2][10]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative will ease the inertia of low inflation. Since October 2022, China's PPI has declined year - on - year for 33 consecutive months, while CPI has stabilized. The downstream price trend supports the upstream to improve quality and stabilize prices through "anti - involution", promoting the narrowing of the PPI decline [2][15]. - The producer price index for means of production continued to rebound. From July 7th to 12th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork and the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased week - on - week, while the edible agricultural product price index remained flat week - on - week. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased, while the prices of LME copper and aluminum decreased. The producer price index for means of production increased 0.60% week - on - week and decreased 8.01% year - on - year in the week of July 4th [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The US Federal Appellate Court hearing on July 31st may determine the direction of subsequent tariff frictions. The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on the US financial market, especially on US Treasuries and the US dollar exchange rate. Concerns about stagflation and trading partners selling US Treasuries are major risks [10][11]. - Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell exacerbates market concerns about the independence of US monetary policy. However, the uncertainty of US inflation amplified by tariffs will not fundamentally change due to the change of the Fed Chairman [13]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative can help ease the inertia of low inflation. The decline in PPI may narrow, and its rebound amplitude may depend on the stabilization of real estate and commodity export prices [15]. 3.2 High - Frequency Data and Comparison of Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.3 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.5 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names.

Core Viewpoint - The future trend of the US dollar index is likely to be a downward fluctuation, which may lead to a stable or rising trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, benefiting China's cross-border capital flow and the internationalization of the RMB [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - Since 1971, the US dollar index has experienced three long cycles of decline followed by rise, with significant percentage changes in each cycle [2][5]. - The first cycle saw a decline from 120.5 to 82.1 (31.9% drop) and a rise to 164.7 (100.6% increase) [2]. - The second cycle had a decline from 164.7 to 78.3 (52.5% drop) and a rise to 120.9 (54.4% increase) [2]. - The third cycle experienced a decline from 120.9 to 71.3 (41.0% drop) and a rise to 114.1 (60.0% increase) [2]. Group 2: Current Dollar Index Trends - From September 2022 to June 2025, the dollar index is projected to decline from 114.1 to 96.9, a decrease of 15.1% [4]. - The end of the previous Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle and the beginning of a rate cut cycle in September 2024 suggest a new long-term downward trend for the dollar index [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of Dollar Index Cycles - The highest and lowest points of the dollar index in the three cycles show a gradual downward trend, indicating a weakening of the US economic advantage relative to other developed countries [5]. - The duration of the cycles has been increasing, with the downward phases lasting around 7-8 years and the upward phases extending significantly [5]. - The relationship between the dollar index and interest rates has changed, with recent trends showing a lower correlation between the two [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions for the Dollar Index - The dollar index is expected to continue a downward trend for an extended period, potentially lasting another 6-7 years [10]. - The lowest point of the current downward cycle may fall below the previous cycle's low of 71.3, but it is unlikely to drop below 80 due to issues in other developed economies [10]. - The correlation between the dollar index and US interest rates may remain low, impacting the RMB to USD exchange rate positively [11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's strategy to increase short-term bond issuance is significantly undermining the Federal Reserve's independence, effectively shifting monetary policy authority to the Treasury [1][2][16]. Group 1: Short-term Debt Issuance and Inflation - The Treasury's shift towards more short-term debt issuance is expected to stimulate risk asset prices further away from long-term fair value and structurally raise inflation levels [2][3]. - The increase in short-term Treasury issuance is likely to become a structural factor driving inflation, as Treasury bills (with maturities under one year) are more "monetary" compared to long-term bonds [3][6]. - Historical data indicates that changes in the proportion of Treasury bills in total outstanding debt often precede long-term inflation trends, suggesting a causal relationship rather than mere correlation [3][6]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Short-term Bonds - The explosive growth of the repurchase market has amplified the impact of short-term debt, as improved clearing mechanisms and increased liquidity make repurchase transactions resemble money [9]. - The issuance strategy of short-term bonds has distinct effects on market liquidity; a high net bond issuance relative to the fiscal deficit often leads to market troubles, as seen in the 2022 bear market [10]. - Increased issuance of short-term Treasury bonds correlates positively with the growth of Federal Reserve reserves, particularly post-pandemic, while long-term bond issuance tends to have the opposite effect [10]. Group 3: Policy Dilemmas for the Federal Reserve - The combination of irrational asset price growth, high consumer inflation, and substantial short-term debt presents a challenging policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve [14][15]. - In an economy burdened with significant short-term debt, raising interest rates would almost immediately translate into fiscal tightening due to soaring government borrowing costs [15][16]. - Both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will face immense pressure to ease policies to counteract these effects, ultimately benefiting inflation [16]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The market's accustomed independence of monetary policy will be significantly compromised, especially before the next Federal Reserve chair takes office, who may lean towards a dovish stance [17]. - The transition towards a Treasury-dominated monetary policy will have profound long-term effects, including potential depreciation of the dollar and steeper yield curves, leading to higher long-term financing costs [17][18]. - The likelihood of reintroducing policy tools such as quantitative easing and yield curve control to artificially suppress long-term yields will increase, potentially marking a "victory" for the Treasury [18][19].

鲍威尔的态度成为这场风波的核心悬念。他多次拒绝透露，在明年 5 月四年主席任期届满后，是选择卸任，还是继续留任美联储理事会。从制度层面看，鲍 威尔在技术上完全可以担任理事直至 2028 年 1 月任期结束。这种不确定性迫使政府官员不得不未雨绸缪，为美联储主席继任者制定多套备选方案。而特朗 普的目标十分明确，他迫切希望找到一位能够坚定支持其经济议程的美联储主席，试图将货币政策纳入自己的施政轨道。 特朗普曾在周二自信满满地宣称，自己心中已有 "两三个顶级人选" 可能接替鲍威尔，但却对具体姓名讳莫如深。更具戏剧性的是，据知情人士透露，最近 几周，特朗普的顾问甚至脑洞大开，与他讨论过让贝森特同时担任财政部长和美联储主席的可能性。这一设想如若成真，将彻底打破自 1935 年以来两项职 务分立的传统，在金融界和政界引发强烈震动。不过，白宫官员迅速出面辟谣，坚称相关报道是 "彻头彻尾的假新闻"，财政部发言人也引用贝森特本人的 表态，称其对现职颇为满意。 Juno markets发现当美国总统特朗普将目光聚焦于美联储主席的人选更替时，一场充满火药味的政治与经济博弈在华盛顿悄然上演。特朗普及其顾问团队试 图为美联储寻找新舵手， ...

Group 1 - The current economic situation in the U.S. is described as "very, very bad," with President Trump expressing anxiety and calling for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to lower government borrowing costs [1] - Trump is focusing on tariff policies to alleviate fiscal pressure, proposing a 10% tariff on all imports, which could generate over $400 billion in government revenue and significantly reduce the $1.83 trillion fiscal deficit [3] - The proposed tariffs are seen as a core strategy for the Trump administration to increase revenue, with the 10% tariff rate becoming a key indicator of his economic policy [3] Group 2 - Trump's tariff plan faces multiple challenges, including the Federal Reserve's commitment to independent monetary policy and bipartisan criticism regarding inflation risks and potential global trade retaliation [4] - Analysts suggest that while Trump's tariff strategy may boost fiscal revenue in the short term, it could lead to higher domestic prices, weaken corporate competitiveness, and provoke retaliation from trade partners, exacerbating the current economic imbalance [6] - The U.S. economy is currently in a "high debt, high deficit, low growth" predicament, and pushing for a tariff war may further complicate economic stability, with significant uncertainty about the future direction of the economy [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizes its independence from political pressures, particularly in response to President Trump's calls for rapid interest rate cuts, opting instead for a patient approach to assess the economic impact of tariff policies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - Trump's high tariff policies aim to reshape U.S. manufacturing and reduce trade deficits but have led to increased costs for consumers and businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures [3][6]. - The current U.S. economy appears stable, with inflation rising but not yet spiraling out of control, as the Federal Reserve maintains a high benchmark interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50% since December [3][6]. - Powell's focus on preventing temporary price spikes from becoming sustained inflation reflects the Fed's role as a guardian of monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public pressure on Powell for interest rate cuts is seen as a political maneuver to boost his support among voters, risking economic overheating and potential crises [4][9]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for avoiding short-term political pressures that could destabilize the economy, with Powell's stance serving as a model for global economic management [7][9]. Group 3: Global Implications - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. policy decisions, such as interest rate changes, can have far-reaching effects, potentially destabilizing financial markets if not handled cautiously [6][10]. - Powell's cautious approach is viewed as stabilizing for global markets amid rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions, helping to maintain the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming economic data, including employment, manufacturing, consumer confidence, and inflation indicators, will significantly influence the Fed's decision-making process [9][10]. - The ability of Powell and the Fed to maintain policy independence and rationality will be critical for both U.S. and global economic stability moving forward [9][10].

特朗普认为当前没有通货膨胀的风险，因此美联储应降低利率。特朗普在上一次怒骂鲍威尔时表示，美 联储的关键借贷利率至少应降低2个百分点。 上周，美联储将联邦基金利率的目标区间保持在4.25%-4.5%不变，符合市场预期。在其声明中，美联储 承认经济活动仍以稳健速度扩张，失业率依然处于较低水平。与上个月相比，美联储对失业率的描述进 行了细微调整，但依然强调其低位状态。同时，美联储认为虽然经济前景的不确定性较之前有所缓解， 但仍需谨慎对待。 值得注意的是，美联储删除了5月声明中"失业率和通胀上升风险均已上升"的表述，转而强调"经济前景 不确定性有所降低但仍处于高位"，暗示短期内不会因单一风险贸然行动。缩表计划虽继续推进，但国 债赎回上限从250亿美元降至50亿美元，显示出对市场流动性的谨慎呵护。 鲍威尔料听证会上延续此前的表态，强调需更多经济数据支撑利率决策。一些共和党议员表示愿意理解 鲍威尔的"稳健策略"，例如宾夕法尼亚州众议员Dan Meuser就公开称赞鲍威尔"在现代最艰难环境中导 航有功"，也有议员可能效仿特朗普的激进立场，要求鲍威尔解释为何在就业强劲、通胀降温的背景下 依然不肯降息。 转自：新华财经 新华财 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔的第二个任期即将于明年6月画上句号。这位曾以"渐进加息"和"抗击通胀"为标签的 掌舵者，如今正面临来自白宫的前后夹击。 美国总统特朗普与副总统万斯近期频繁敦促美联储降息，与此同时，白宫已经在物色下一任美联储主席 的人选。特朗普近日表示，将很快任命继任者。 现任财长贝森特一度被传为最热门候选人，但白宫迅速否认这一传闻。 随着美国债务规模突破36万亿美元，联邦政府每年需支付1.2万亿美元利息，降息成为缓解财政压力 的"捷径"。 特朗普政府近期频繁敦促美联储降息： 6月6日，美国非农就业数据公布后，特朗普说，"美联储的'太迟先生'是场灾难！欧洲已经降息10次， 我们一次都没有。若通胀卷土重来，加息应对就好。" 6月11日，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告公布后，特朗普表示， CPI最新数据表现理想，呼吁美联储 将利率下调一个百分点。如此一来，美国在即将到期的债务利息上将节省大量支出，这非常重要。万斯 当天也以"通胀放缓至0.1%"为由加入施压阵营，将美联储推向政治风暴中心。 这场权力更迭的背后，不仅是候选人个人资历的较量，更是美国货币政策未来方向的抉择：是坚守独立 性，还是向政治压力妥协？ 施压鲍威 ...