Group 1 - The core responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to prevent economic recessions and inflation [1] - The independence of monetary policy is emphasized as a crucial element [1] - There are plans to maintain the independence of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - International gold prices hit a new record high, and the A - share market had an adjustment. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence, Trump's tariff issues, and economic data from different countries [3][4]. - Different commodity markets showed diverse trends. For example, some commodities were expected to be in a supply - demand imbalance, while others were affected by production changes, policy adjustments, and market sentiment [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and Trump called for a strong interest - rate cut. Gold prices rose to a new high due to concerns about the Fed's independence and tariff issues. The market should pay attention to the upcoming non - farm data and the increase in long - short games [14][15]. - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Multiple high - ranking Japanese LDP officials expressed their intention to resign, and concerns about the UK economy intensified. The dollar index rose significantly in the short term, and market risk appetite declined [20]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: The number of new A - share accounts in August was 2.65 million, with a significant year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The A - share market adjusted on September 2, and the subsequent trend depends on major events [22][23]. - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump planned to appeal the global tariff case to the US Supreme Court. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract, and the US Treasury Secretary planned to interview Fed chair candidates. The US stock market adjusted, and investors should pay attention to volatility [25][26][27]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading in September. The bond market was in a volatile trend, and it was not recommended to chase long positions after the market rose [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased to 65%. The US weekly export inspection data met expectations, and the domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient but demand was also strong [32]. - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: The cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 72.8% as of August 30. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, but the good - quality rate was high. The external market was under seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton market was expected to be in a short - term shock [34][35][36]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, and Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. It was recommended to go long on palm oil at low prices [37][39]. - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: Port coal prices were weakly falling. Due to weak demand and transportation restrictions during the parade, coal prices were expected to continue the seasonal decline but be supported at around 650 yuan [40]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: Grangex announced the restart of Sydvaranger mining. The overall raw material market was under pressure, but it was expected to be in a shock market in September [41]. - **Agricultural Products (Red Dates)**: The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable. The fundamentals of red dates were not significantly changed, and it was recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch enterprises in different regions had losses. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the price difference between rice flour and starch was at a low level [45]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. The spot price of corn was strengthening, but the upward space of the futures price was limited [45][46]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Argentina approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The supply - demand imbalance caused by supply reduction might be reflected in high - frequency data in September, and it was recommended to try long positions and pay attention to positive spreads [48][49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was cancelled. The polysilicon price was expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and it was recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [50][53]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The LME lead market was weak, while the domestic lead market's supply was expected to tighten and demand to improve. It was recommended to go long on lead at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [54]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was slowly increasing, and the market was expected to be in a short - term shock between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: The LME zinc market was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc market was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: The copper market was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and industry policies. The copper price was expected to be supported in the short term, and it was recommended to be long on a short - term basis [65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price was firm, and the nickel price was expected to be in a range - bound shock. It was recommended to go long at low prices [66][67]. - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Kazakhstan's crude oil production in August increased by 2% month - on - month. The oil price was expected to be in a shock [68]. - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: The CEA price was in a short - term shock and weakening trend [69][70]. - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: The PX price was in a short - term shock adjustment [72][73]. - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: The PTA market was in a short - term shock adjustment with improved fundamentals [74][75]. - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda spot price was expected to be in a high - level shock [76][77]. - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The pulp market was in a weak shock [77][78]. - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The PVC market was expected to be in a shock [79][80]. - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The styrene market was in a weak operation recently [81][83]. - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: The bottle chip market had new capacity plans, and the demand was moving towards the off - season [84][85]. - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: The soda ash market was weakening, and it was recommended to short at high prices [86][87]. - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The float glass market was in a weak trend, and it was recommended to focus on arbitrage [88][89]. - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates)**: The container freight rate market was under supply pressure, and the price was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to short on emotional rallies in October and long after the price decline in December [91][92].

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump raises significant concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the implications for U.S. monetary policy [1][3][4] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump announced the dismissal of Lisa Cook, citing alleged violations related to two mortgage applications, which is unprecedented in the 111-year history of the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Cook is the first Black woman to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor and her removal challenges the legal protections that typically safeguard such positions from arbitrary dismissal by the President [1][3][4] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The incident highlights a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's independence, with concerns that the institution could become a tool for presidential political agendas rather than a body guided by economic data [3][4][9] - Historical precedents indicate that political interference in central banking can lead to severe economic consequences, as seen during Nixon's presidency, which resulted in hyperinflation [3][4][9] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of Cook's dismissal, there was a notable market reaction, with U.S. Treasury yield spreads reaching a three-year high and significant declines in Asian and European stock markets [7] - Investors expressed heightened concern over policy uncertainty, leading to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and a surge in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 4: Global Consequences - The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence could have far-reaching effects beyond the U.S., impacting global financial markets and leading to instability in emerging markets [6][9] - Experts warn that if the Federal Reserve's policies become subject to presidential whims, it could destabilize the dollar and disrupt international trade and capital flows [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The warning from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence highlights a growing tension between U.S. politics and monetary policy, which could have profound implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy, as historical instances of political interference have led to inflation spikes, currency devaluation, and stock market declines [1][2]. - Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including threats against Chairman Powell and legal actions against Governor Lisa Cook, reflect a desire for direct influence over monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating a delicate balance in its monetary policy decisions, with inflation data remaining above the 2% target and concerns about a weakening labor market following a disappointing July employment report [2]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with nearly 90% probability, indicating concerns over economic slowdown and a potential shift towards more accommodative policies [2]. Group 3: Global Financial Implications - Erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to significant uncertainty in global financial markets, as the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency is partly based on the strength and independence of its monetary policy [3]. - A loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets could result in capital outflows, dollar depreciation, and potential ripple effects across global financial markets, impacting borrowing costs, financial stability, and the global trade and investment landscape [3].

Core Viewpoint - September historically shows a decline in the S&P 500 index, averaging nearly 2% over the past decade, with current uncertainties such as potential Fed rate cuts and political pressures adding to market volatility [1][3]. Market Performance - September is noted as the most volatile month for U.S. markets, with a 56% probability of decline in the S&P 500 index since 1927, averaging a drop of 1.17%. In the last decade, the average decline has worsened to 1.93% [3]. - In the first year of a presidential term, the S&P 500 index has a 58% chance of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.62% [3]. Valuation and Investment Trends - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index has reached 22 times, nearing levels seen at the end of the internet bubble, raising concerns about potential sell-off pressures during portfolio rebalancing at the end of September [4]. - Recent market shifts show cyclical sectors and small-cap stocks leading gains, while large tech stocks lagged behind. Non-essential consumer goods ETFs rose by 4.3%, financial sector ETFs by 2.6%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index increased by 7.3% [4]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with significant drops in non-farm payrolls from May to July, while retail sales and major retailers' earnings indicate strong consumer spending [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3% [7]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Fed is anticipated to consider rate cuts due to recent employment data, with Chairman Powell indicating a shift in stance towards a more accommodative policy [7][9]. - Market expectations for rate cuts have fluctuated, with the probability of more than two cuts this year dropping from over 50% to below 30% [9]. Political Pressures - Concerns arise regarding the Fed's independence amid political pressures from the Trump administration, particularly regarding the potential influence over the Fed's board composition [9].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has achieved its inflation target of 2%, as stated by President Lagarde, indicating a commitment to maintaining price stability [1] - The ECB's stance is becoming more robust, with officials expressing that inflation risks are "generally balanced" and signaling an end to the easing cycle [2] - Market expectations for further easing by the ECB are cooling, with investors anticipating that the ECB will maintain current interest rates in the upcoming meeting [2] Group 2 - Lagarde raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, warning that if former President Trump were to gain control, it could pose serious risks to both the U.S. and global economies [3] - She highlighted Trump's unprecedented attacks on the Fed, emphasizing the importance of monetary policy for maintaining price stability and optimal employment in the U.S. [3] - The potential loss of autonomy for the Fed could lead to significant instability in the U.S. economy, which would have global repercussions [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market has shown positive results from a low-position long strategy, with prices rebounding after reaching entry points around 3315-25 USD/oz [1] - There is a strong market expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, exceeding 85%, contributing to a weaker dollar and increased investment in gold due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices operating above the upper band; MACD shows a bullish crossover, while RSI indicates an overbought condition [3] - The 4-hour chart also shows expanding Bollinger Bands, with prices near the upper band; MACD is bullish, and RSI remains in an overbought state, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3450 [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates similar trends, with prices near the upper band and a bullish MACD; however, there is a warning for potential overbought pullbacks, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3450 [3] Group 3: Future Trading Strategies - Aggressive traders are advised to enter long positions near the 3300 USD/oz support after stabilization, while conservative traders should consider long positions around 3270-3280 USD/oz [4] - For short positions, aggressive traders should look to sell near 3450 USD/oz resistance, while conservative traders may consider shorting around 3485-3475 USD/oz [4] - Specific trading recommendations for various gold instruments include light shorting on high prices for futures, buying on dips for linked products, and a dollar-cost averaging strategy for long-term investments [4]

新华财经伊斯坦布尔8月30日电 运行三年多的土耳其外汇保护型存款机制（KKM）近日开始退出历史 舞台。市场分析人士认为，这一举措向投资者释放信号：该国正尝试减少对非常规货币政策的依赖，逐 步向更加市场化的宏观调控手段过渡。 2021年，土耳其本币里拉经历大幅贬值。土耳其当年12月出台外汇保护型存款机制，允许个人和企业将 里拉存入特殊账户并在汇率贬值时由国家提供补偿，这一机制曾在稳定里拉汇率等方面发挥作用，但近 几年持续承压。包括土耳其中央银行在内的政策制定者认为，该机制运行期间的补偿支出增加了财政赤 字并限制了货币政策灵活性，难以作为长期汇率稳定工具。 土耳其央行本月23日宣布KKM机制账户未来不再接受新开户或续期，意味着该机制将逐渐退出。土耳 其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克说，得益于KKM机制退出策略和紧缩货币政策，外汇保护型存款余额正 稳步下降。土耳其央行行长法提赫·卡拉汉认为，KKM机制余额下降有助提升里拉存款占比，加强货币 政策传导，并降低央行资产负债表风险。 土耳其央行等机构和学者认为，KKM机制逐渐退出将减轻土政府财政负担、恢复货币政策独立性，增 强市场对土政府政策的信心。安卡拉梅迪波尔大学学者哈伦 ...

新华社伊斯坦布尔8月30日电 综述｜土耳其改革汇率保护机制 释放市场化过渡信号 新华社记者许万虎 运行三年多的土耳其外汇保护型存款机制（KKM）近日开始退出历史舞台。市场分析人士认为， 这一举措向投资者释放信号：该国正尝试减少对非常规货币政策的依赖，逐步向更加市场化的宏观调控 手段过渡。 2021年，土耳其本币里拉经历大幅贬值。土耳其当年12月出台外汇保护型存款机制，允许个人和企 业将里拉存入特殊账户并在汇率贬值时由国家提供补偿，这一机制曾在稳定里拉汇率等方面发挥作用， 但近几年持续承压。包括土耳其中央银行在内的政策制定者认为，该机制运行期间的补偿支出增加了财 政赤字并限制了货币政策灵活性，难以作为长期汇率稳定工具。 土耳其央行本月23日宣布KKM机制账户未来不再接受新开户或续期，意味着该机制将逐渐退出。 土耳其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克说，得益于KKM机制退出策略和紧缩货币政策，外汇保护型存款余 额正稳步下降。土耳其央行行长法提赫·卡拉汉认为，KKM机制余额下降有助提升里拉存款占比，加强 货币政策传导，并降低央行资产负债表风险。 土耳其央行等机构和学者认为，KKM机制逐渐退出将减轻土政府财政负担、恢复货币政 ...

美联储理事丽莎·库克就总统特朗普要罢免她的美联储理事职务正式起诉后者。 即将主持该诉讼首阶段审理的华盛顿法官法官贾·科布（Jia Cobb）定于美东时间29日上午10点就此举行听证会。 目前最高法院由保守派大法官占多数。自特朗普上台后，最高法对总统权力范围的认定越来越广，很难预测此次诉讼的结果。 今年5月，最高法对联邦独立机构的人事任免上诉案作出了有利于白宫的裁决，同时强调该裁决并不适用于美联储，因为后者是结构独特 的准私人实体，遵循了独特的历史传统，总统不可以罢免美联储理事会或其下属联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的其他成员。 美联储发言人称国会在1913年通过的《联邦储备法》规定，总统只有在"有正当理由"的情况下才能解雇理事，理事的长期任期和免职保 护是重要的保障，确保货币政策决策基于数据、经济分析和美国人民的长远利益 该立法允许总统"因故"罢免在任理事。此前"故"字的内涵被解读为渎职、严重行为不端和其他影响美联储理事履职能力的情况。 据美国法学界人士分析，特朗普解雇库克也不符合程序要求，"因故"解职通常涉及职位上的不当行为，而非在担任公职前的私人生活领 域。该指控发生在2021年，当时库克尚未出任美联储理 ...