据彭博社报道，特朗普在返回华盛顿的总统专机"空军一号"上告诉记者："我知道我要选谁，没错。"但 他没有透露具体人选，只说"我们会宣布的"。 美国总统特朗普11月30日表示，他已经敲定下一任美国联邦储备委员会主席人选，但未透露是谁。多家 外媒报道认为，无论候选人是谁，特朗普最看重此人是否对自己忠诚，以实现他要求美联储降息的目 的。 哈西特1962年出生，拥有宾夕法尼亚大学经济学博士学位，属于保守派经济学家。2017年9月至2019年6 月，他在特朗普第一个总统任期内担任经济顾问委员会主席。此前，他曾担任美联储高级经济学家，在 哥伦比亚大学商学院任教。 《今日美国报》报道认为，特朗普任何时候都可能宣布提名人选。 最有可能人选 关于下一任美联储主席会是谁，贝森特说目前有"5名强有力候选人"。其中，白宫国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈西特被普遍认为最有可能获提名。 彭博社此前援引知情人士说法报道，在特朗普及其顾问和盟友眼中，哈西特是下一任美联储主席的头号 候选人。美国预测平台"卡尔希"网站显示，特朗普有72%的几率提名哈西特出任下一任美联储主席。 多家外媒报道认为，特朗普提名美联储主席人选，最看重的是候选人对他个人的忠诚 ...

近日，美财政部发布的数据显示，中国在9月份再度抛售5亿美元美债，随后，特朗普政府开始将矛头指向美联储，甚至威胁要提前解雇美联储主席鲍威尔， 美元霸权的时代，是否真的即将告终？ 全球投资者都开始担心美债能不能按时还钱，各国央行也都在寻找其他更安全的投资方式，比如黄金。中国作为美债的重要海外持有者，选择减持来规避风 险，这其实是很明智的。 但是，特朗普政府面对这种情况，并没有反思自己，反而把气撒到了美联储头上。 特朗普多次在公开场合骂美联储主席鲍威尔"无能""愚蠢"，说他的货币政策太紧了，阻碍了经济增长。更让人吃惊的是，特朗普还威胁说要提前炒掉鲍威 尔，这完全打破了总统不干涉美联储独立性的潜规则。 11月18日，美财政部最新数据显示，中国9月抛售5亿美元美债，总持仓量虽仍超7000亿美元，但自2022年以来已累计抛售近3000亿美元，海外持有排名降至 第三。这一举动并非孤立事件，而是中国对美国国债风险持续评估后的战略调整。 现在，美国国债的规模已经快接近40万亿美元了，每年要支付的利息就高达约1.5万亿美元，这比很多国家的全年GDP还要多。这么庞大的债务，再加上特 朗普政府"对外国加税、对自己减税"的政策，让美元 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is expected to significantly alter the international monetary system and global financial governance structure [1][10] - The Fed's recent interest rate cuts mark a pivotal change in its monetary policy cycle, responding to both domestic economic conditions and global economic slowdowns [2][3] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex interplay of cyclical slowdown and structural weaknesses, leading to increased unemployment and a need for preemptive policy actions [3][4] Group 2 - The current inflation dynamics, while still above the Fed's target, show a declining trend, necessitating a balanced approach to monetary policy [4] - Political pressures are influencing the Fed's decisions, but the institution maintains its independence in policy-making, opting for a cautious approach to rate cuts [5] - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. monetary policy adjustments will have significant spillover effects on other countries [6] Group 3 - The global financial system is entering a phase of profound transformation, with opportunities for restructuring policy coordination among major central banks [7] - Emerging markets may benefit from capital inflows as the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets diminishes, providing a window for structural reforms [8] - The sustainability of global debt levels is under scrutiny, particularly for emerging markets with significant foreign currency debt [9] Group 4 - The shift in U.S. monetary policy is likely to accelerate the diversification of the international monetary system, impacting financing costs and channels for emerging markets [10] - The Fed's actions are expected to reshape asset pricing mechanisms and market structures, influencing investor behavior and capital flows [12][14] - Commodity pricing mechanisms are undergoing changes, with precious metals benefiting from the Fed's rate cuts, while industrial commodities may see increased demand due to lower financing costs [13] Group 5 - The adjustment in global capital flows is evident, with a notable shift towards non-U.S. assets as the dollar's appeal wanes [14] - Investment strategies will need to adapt to the new monetary environment, with a focus on risk assessment and asset allocation [15] - China's monetary policy may gain more flexibility in response to the Fed's actions, allowing for more proactive economic support measures [16][17] Group 6 - The Fed's policy shift presents new opportunities for international financial cooperation and enhances China's role in global governance [19] - The internationalization of the renminbi may gain momentum in the new monetary landscape, promoting a more diversified and stable international monetary system [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish foreign exchange-protected deposit mechanism (KKM) is set to be phased out, marking a shift towards more market-oriented macroeconomic policies while facing short-term risks to the lira and market uncertainty [1][2][3] Group 1: KKM Mechanism Overview - The KKM was established in response to the lira's significant depreciation in 2021, which saw a 44% decline against the dollar, and allowed individuals and businesses to deposit lira in special accounts with state compensation during currency depreciation [2] - Since its inception, the KKM has incurred costs of approximately $60 billion, stabilizing short-term capital outflows but increasing long-term fiscal pressure [2][3] Group 2: Policy Transition and Market Implications - The Turkish Central Bank announced that KKM accounts will no longer accept new accounts or renewals, indicating a move away from unconventional monetary policies [1][3] - The balance of protected deposits has decreased sharply from a peak of $140 billion to about $7 billion, reflecting a growing confidence in the lira and the new monetary policy framework [2][3] Group 3: Future Challenges and Investor Sentiment - The end of the KKM is expected to lead to increased exchange rate volatility and market fluctuations, with investors needing to manage currency risks in the short term [4][5] - The Turkish government aims to enhance policy credibility and attract capital inflows through tighter monetary policies and improved transparency, despite ongoing challenges such as high inflation and external economic pressures [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economic advisor, Takushi Aida, urges the Bank of Japan to delay interest rate hikes, emphasizing the need to support the fragile economic recovery until at least January 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Japan's economy may have contracted in the third quarter, with household real income not yet showing positive growth, indicating that an interest rate hike could counteract fiscal stimulus and increase economic downside risks [1][3] - The Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, advocates for a coordinated approach between fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting that current inflation is driven by raw material costs rather than domestic demand [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at approximately 0.5% during its latest meeting, marking the sixth consecutive hold since January [2] - There are internal divisions within the Bank of Japan regarding the maintenance of an accommodative stance, with two policy committee members voting against the current rate [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Market focus is on whether the Bank of Japan will take action on December 19 or in January 2026, with approximately half of observers expecting a rate hike in December [3] - The yen has been under pressure, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping to a low not seen since February 2025, raising concerns about the impact of yen depreciation on import costs and living standards [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility in October, with prices reaching a historical high of $4,381 per ounce before plummeting nearly $600 to around $3,950 within two weeks. As of November 3, spot gold prices had declined for the second consecutive week, settling at $4,002.2 per ounce, yet 50% of retail investors remained bullish on the upcoming week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Influences - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% was expected to benefit gold prices, but subsequent hawkish comments from Chairman Powell dampened market expectations for further easing [3]. - Historical data shows that since 2000, gold prices have risen on the first trading day after 20 out of 32 rate cuts, but this time the market reacted differently due to concerns over the independence of monetary policy and the sustainability of U.S. fiscal deficits [3]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating Middle Eastern conflicts were anticipated to enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, yet the market response was contrary, with prices declining during a period of heightened geopolitical risk [5]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives and Central Bank Actions - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their assets to gold, indicating a reassessment of gold's value as a wealth preservation tool [5]. - Central bank purchases have become a stable support for the gold market, with global central banks net buying 800 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, and the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months [5]. - The World Gold Council projected that global central bank gold purchases would reach a record 1,045 tons in 2024, with emerging market central banks continuing to increase gold's share in their reserves to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices are at a critical juncture, having broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with support around $3,930 and resistance between $3,990 and $4,000 [7]. - Market sentiment is divided, with 50% of retail investors predicting a rise in gold prices next week, contrasting with institutional behavior that saw a record outflow of $7.5 billion from gold funds in a single week [7]. - Recent price movements have been characterized as a "technical correction," with the market having been overbought following a parabolic rise, leading to a sharp decline in prices [7]. Group 4: Gold's Evolving Role - Gold's traditional role is being redefined, serving as a hedge against declines in other assets, with a suggested allocation of 50% in portfolios to enhance risk resilience [7]. - The correlation between gold price increases and the cumulative rise in U.S. CPI over the past 20 years stands at 0.72, indicating gold's effectiveness as an inflation hedge [7]. - However, increased volatility in gold prices since 2025, with weekly fluctuations exceeding $80, suggests that while gold remains a safe-haven asset, it also poses volatility risks for ordinary investors [9].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its banking supervision department staff by 30% by the end of 2026, resulting in approximately 350 employees remaining, down from the previously approved 500 [1] - This layoff plan was announced by Michelle Bowman, the newly appointed Vice Chair for Supervision, during an internal meeting on October 30 [1] - The reduction aims to streamline operations through natural attrition, retirements, and voluntary departure incentives, with specific details to be released in the coming weeks [1] Group 1 - The banking supervision department is responsible for overseeing thousands of bank holding companies and state-chartered member banks, which is a core component of the Federal Reserve's financial stability function [1] - The layoff plan aligns with the overall direction set by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to reduce the agency's workforce by 10% by May 2025, but the cuts in the supervision area are significantly higher [1] Group 2 - Michelle Bowman, appointed by former President Trump in early 2025, is pushing for structural reforms, including streamlining management levels and renaming the operations department to "Business Enablement Group" [2] - The department has recently experienced high-level personnel changes, including the retirement of long-time supervisor Michael Gibson and the departure of his two deputies [2] - The timing of the layoff plan coincides with intensified criticism from senior officials in the Trump administration regarding the Federal Reserve's perceived overreach and bloated structure [2]

Core Insights - The IMF highlights two major factors that could hinder economic growth in Asia: rising interest rates and a strengthening US dollar [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - A strong dollar and rising long-term US Treasury yields may increase overall debt costs in Asian markets, posing challenges for countries that have shown resilience against US tariffs [1] - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand tariff impacts, allowing governments and businesses to borrow at lower costs [1][3] Group 2: Future Projections - The IMF projects that Asia's economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% in the previous year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from earlier forecasts due to strong export growth [2] - The growth forecast for 2026 is expected to further decline to 4.1%, indicating a downward risk for economic growth in Asia [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and anchor inflation expectations [3] - The relative moderation of inflation in Asia compared to other regions suggests that central banks can effectively manage inflation expectations due to public trust in their independence from government interference [3]

Group 1 - The IMF warns that a strong dollar and rising long-term interest rates could challenge the resilience of Asian countries in responding to US tariffs [1][2] - A sustained strong dollar or a significant rise in long-term US Treasury yields may increase the overall debt costs for Asian markets [1][2] - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand the impact of US tariffs this year [1][2] Group 2 - The IMF projects that the Asian economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% last year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from its April forecast due to strong export growth [2] - The IMF warns that the risks to Asian economic growth are skewed to the downside, with a further slowdown expected to 4.1% in 2026 [3] - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and ensure inflation expectations remain anchored [3]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that a sudden strengthening of the US dollar, combined with a significant rise in long-term interest rates, could challenge the resilience of Asian countries in responding to US tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Conditions and Impact on Asia - A strong dollar or rising long-term US Treasury yields may increase the overall debt costs for Asian markets [1]. - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand the impact of US tariffs this year [1]. - If the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and the dollar weakens, Asian central banks could relax monetary policies to support economic growth without fearing capital outflow risks [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects that the overall Asian economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% last year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from the IMF's April forecast due to strong export growth before higher US tariffs took effect [2]. - However, the IMF warns that the risks to Asian economic growth are skewed to the downside, with a further slowdown to 4.1% expected in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and ensure inflation expectations remain anchored [3]. - Despite a rebound in demand post-pandemic and rising raw material prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation in Asia remains relatively mild compared to other regions [3]. - The independence of central banks is crucial for achieving price stability, and they should not be burdened with excessive missions and liabilities [3].