IMF认为，亚洲各经济体应向受冲击行业的企业和个人提供有针对性的财政支持，并在通胀低于目 标的情况下实行宽松的货币政策，进一步提振经济。 新华社华盛顿10月28日电 专访｜区域一体化有助于巩固亚洲经济可持续增长——访IMF亚太部主 任斯里尼瓦桑 新华社记者熊茂伶 谢锷 胡友松 国际货币基金组织（IMF）亚太部主任斯里尼瓦桑日前接受新华社记者专访时说，区域一体化有助 于巩固亚洲未来增长的可持续性。在贸易紧张局势下，亚洲经济体应该加强区域一体化，而亚太经济合 作组织（APEC）等平台有助于推动这一进程。 IMF日前发布的预测显示，2025年亚洲预计增长4.5%，2026年将增长4.1%。斯里尼瓦桑表示，亚洲 经济增速预期较4月份上调，背后有一些强劲的"顺风因素"：一是整体关税水平低于4月份的预测，出口 表现非常强劲；二是整个地区各经济体都实施了财政、货币等宏观政策，支持经济增长；三是金融环境 也非常有利。 斯里尼瓦桑指出，尽管亚洲经济表现出强劲韧性，下行风险仍不容忽视。一方面，亚洲与全球供应 链高度一体化，在贸易紧张局势背景下尤为脆弱，未来贸易紧张局势如果加剧，可能损害亚洲地区经济 增长前景。另一方面，金融环境可 ...

Core Insights - The IMF highlights two major factors that could hinder economic growth in Asia: rising interest rates and a strengthening US dollar [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - A strong dollar and rising long-term US Treasury yields may increase overall debt costs in Asian markets, posing challenges for countries that have shown resilience against US tariffs [1] - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand tariff impacts, allowing governments and businesses to borrow at lower costs [1][3] Group 2: Future Projections - The IMF projects that Asia's economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% in the previous year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from earlier forecasts due to strong export growth [2] - The growth forecast for 2026 is expected to further decline to 4.1%, indicating a downward risk for economic growth in Asia [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and anchor inflation expectations [3] - The relative moderation of inflation in Asia compared to other regions suggests that central banks can effectively manage inflation expectations due to public trust in their independence from government interference [3]

"如果美元大幅升值，也会影响亚洲。"他表示。"偏向宽松的金融条件一直非常支持亚洲经济增长，但 它们可能随时发生改变。这对亚洲整体经济而言是一大风险。" IMF预计，整个亚洲经济在2025年将增长4.5%，较去年的4.6%略微放缓，但较IMF在4月的预测报告则 上调0.6个百分点，部分原因在于在更高的美国关税生效前的"前置出货"带动创纪录的强劲出口增长。 但该机构警告称，亚洲经济增长风险偏向下行，并预计2026年增长将进一步放缓至4.1%。 国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一位高级官员近日在采访中表示，如果美元意外走强叠加长期利率从低位大 幅回升，从而导致全球金融条件收紧，亚洲各国在应对美国关税方面表现出的韧性可能会遭遇严峻挑 战。 这位IMF高级官员表示，美元持续走强或者长期限美债收益率回升可能抬升亚洲市场的整体债务成本。 在金融市场，10年期及以上的美债收益率曲线通常是全球长期限利率的重要参考标的。 "如果美联储继续推进降息进程，随后美元汇率持续走弱，亚洲市场的各大央行便可在不必过于担心资 本外流风险的情况下大幅放松货币政策，以支持本国经济增长。"IMF亚太地区负责人Krishna Srinivasan 在采访 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一位高级官员近日在采访中表示，如果美元意外走强叠 加长期利率从低位大幅回升，从而导致全球金融条件收紧，亚洲各国在应对美国关税方面表现出的韧性 可能会遭遇严峻挑战。 这位IMF高级官员表示，美元持续走强或者长期限美债收益率回升可能抬升亚洲市场的整体债务成本。 在金融市场，10年期及以上的美债收益率曲线通常是全球长期限利率的重要参考标的。 "如果美联储继续推进降息进程，随后美元汇率持续走弱，亚洲市场的各大央行便可在不必过于担心资 本外流风险的情况下大幅放松货币政策，以支持本国经济增长。"IMF亚太地区负责人Krishna Srinivasan 在采访中表示。 在IMF看来，低利率与疲弱美元态势在今年迄今帮助亚洲市场承受住特朗普政府的关税冲击，然而美元 走强或者长期限美债收益率大幅回升则可能抬升亚洲债务成本。 低利率以及长期限美债收益率下行也将显著帮助亚洲各国政府和企业以更低成本举债，并且能够承受因 美国关税上调持续带来的经济冲击，Srinivasan表示。 但Srinivasan警告称，这种对于亚洲市场而言非常有利的金融条件可能随时发生变化。 "如果美元大幅升值，也 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The HSBC Global Investment Research Chief Asian Economist, Frederic Neumann, predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a more conservative outlook suggesting a maximum of three rate cuts overall [1][2] - Market expectations for a September rate cut exceed 90%, influenced by upcoming labor market data which could impact the decision [1][2] - Neumann notes that if the Fed proceeds with a rate cut, Asian central banks are likely to follow suit, with countries like India, South Korea, and Indonesia already lowering rates [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook for Asia - HSBC maintains an optimistic outlook for Asia's economic growth, projecting a 4.4% growth rate for 2025, significantly higher than the global average of 2.6% [2] - Despite uncertainties in the global economy during the first half of the year, HSBC has not adjusted its growth forecasts, citing stronger-than-expected growth in the first half [3] - The firm anticipates a slowdown in economic growth for the following year, with a downward revision of the U.S. growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.3% [3] Group 3: Hong Kong's Financial Sector Trends - Hong Kong's status as an international financial center is expected to strengthen due to global capital reallocation and increasing outbound investment from China [6] - The city is becoming a hub for Chinese capital seeking international opportunities, contrasting with previous trends where foreign capital predominantly flowed into China [6] - The rise in wealth among Chinese residents is benefiting Hong Kong's financial markets, including stock, insurance, and asset management sectors [6] Group 4: Competition Between Hong Kong and Singapore - In private wealth management, Hong Kong is seen as surpassing Singapore, serving as a key conduit for Chinese capital to the world [6] - Singapore retains unique competitive advantages in foreign exchange trading and financing activities related to ASEAN [6]

Group 1 - HSBC Global Research indicates that the upcoming tariffs on products exported from Asia to the US may lead to a decline in shipment volumes in the coming months [1] - Companies are likely to suppress investments amid uncertainty due to the tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could cause oil prices to surge [1] - Asian countries, except for Japan where policy normalization remains a goal, are expected to further cut interest rates with the help of a weakening US dollar [1] Group 2 - There is a focus on whether Asian consumers can support economic growth amidst external adverse factors [1] - There remains hope that household consumption can offset some of the economic weakness [1]

Core Insights - The Boao Forum for Asia 2025 Annual Conference highlighted the resilience of Asian economies, particularly China and ASEAN, in the face of challenges, projecting a GDP growth rate of 4.5% for 2025 [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The report anticipates a slight increase in the weighted actual GDP growth rate for Asia from 4.4% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 [3]. - Asia's share of global output is expected to rise from 48.1% to 48.6% by 2025, indicating a strengthening economic position [3]. Employment and Income Trends - Although the employment growth rate in Asia is projected to decline from 1.94% to 1.22% in 2025, the overall unemployment rate is expected to be 4.39%, lower than the global rate of 4.96% [3]. - The report suggests that real income levels in Asia are likely to improve as economic growth rebounds and inflation continues to decrease [3]. Trade and Digital Economy - Asia remains a core player in global value chains, with a significant share of 41.17% in global intermediate goods trade in 2023, surpassing the EU and North America [3]. - The e-commerce sector in the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid growth, with a retail e-commerce growth rate of 8.4% in 2024 and a 10.8% year-on-year increase in China's cross-border e-commerce [4]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - The report identifies potential challenges for Asian economies, including low global economic growth, escalating trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - Despite these challenges, the stock market indices in Asia are expected to remain on an upward trend, with stable exchange rates anticipated for major economies [5]. Future Directions and Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for Asian countries to leverage their demographic advantages and enhance human capital development to improve labor productivity [7]. - It advocates for increased investment in digital technology and international cooperation to foster sustainable development and economic integration [6][7].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Projections - Asia's economic growth is projected to reach 4.5% in 2025, slightly up from 4.4% in 2024, with GDP share of the world expected to rise from 48.1% in 2024 to 48.6% in 2025 [2] - China, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Mongolia, Cambodia, and Indonesia are expected to maintain growth rates above 5% [2] - China's economy is anticipated to remain strong, supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving the business environment [2] Group 2: Employment and Income Trends - Asia's employment growth rate is expected to decline from 1.94% to 1.22% in 2025, while the overall unemployment rate is projected to be 4.39%, lower than the global average of 4.96% [3] - The region's income levels are expected to improve as economic growth rebounds and inflation continues to decline [3] Group 3: Trade and Investment Dynamics - Asia is projected to face challenges in trade and investment due to global economic conditions, but digital and service trade are highlighted as bright spots [3] - Foreign direct investment in Asia is estimated to decline by 7.4% in 2024, with India and ASEAN showing growth in greenfield projects and foreign direct investment, respectively [4] - The region's financial markets are expected to remain stable despite increased volatility, with most economies maintaining upward trends in stock market indices [5] Group 4: Economic Integration and Trade Relations - The integration of Asian economies is on the rise, with a high trade dependency rate of 56.3% among Asian economies [6] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is enhancing trade and investment flows, although challenges remain in market integration and rule utilization [9][10] - RCEP is expected to create trade effects and stimulate foreign direct investment, contributing to the deepening of regional value chains [10] Group 5: Financial Market and Policy Outlook - Asian economies are expected to increase fiscal expansion and maintain loose monetary policies, with many countries experiencing rising fiscal deficit rates [5] - The region's financial integration is growing, with significant cross-border banking assets and a stable asset allocation among major economies [8]

Core Insights - The report predicts that Asia's overall economic growth will reach 4.5% in 2025, with China remaining a key driver of this growth [5] Trade and Investment - Asia's total merchandise trade reached $12.7 trillion in the first three quarters of last year, growing by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing the global average growth of 3.3% [3] - The share of Asia in global merchandise trade increased from 34.9% to 35.8% [3] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to Asia are projected to decline by 7.4% in 2024, while outflows continue to grow; China's outbound direct investment rose by 11.3%, significantly higher than the global average of 1.2% [3] Employment and Economic Indicators - Asia's overall unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.4% in 2024 to 4.39% in 2025, remaining below the global rate of 4.96% [4] - The share of Asia's output in global output was 36.1% last year and is expected to rise to 36.4% this year; in terms of purchasing power parity, it is projected to increase from 48.1% to 48.6% [5] Financial Market Outlook - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding financial markets, indicating that while stock indices may experience volatility, they are expected to rise slowly; however, many Asian currencies may face depreciation pressure [3]