2025年至今，香港新股市场已经迎来超过100家上市公司(包括今年全球最大的两宗IPO)，融资总额已超 过2,700亿港元。展望2026，目前上市科正在处理的上市申请超过300家公司。 陈翊庭续称，市场总是周期性的，难以预测，但我们坚信亚洲市场的长期前景向好。亚洲经济增长将持 续推动区内金融市场不断发展，释放区域内的机遇，吸引全球资本，亚洲金融市场有潜力发展成为全球 最大的资本市场。对于香港交易所而言，这是香港成为全球金融市场核心的巨大机遇。 此外，我们将继续扩大上市公司的来源。今年随着内地企业加速出海，来香港上市的内地企业越来越国 际化，半数在香港上市的内地企业都有相当比例的业务收入来自境外。而且，香港交易所今年已经迎来 多家来自印尼、哈萨克斯坦、新加坡、泰国和阿联酋的企业上市。未来，我们将继续利用这一平合，吸 引更多国际公司(尤其是亚洲其他地区的公司)来上市，帮助全球投资者分享亚洲增长机遇。 原文如下： 智通财经APP获悉，香港交易所(00388)CEO陈翊庭发表网志称，2025年1月的 "DeepSeek时刻" 不仅彰显 了中国在前沿科技领域的实力，更提醒世界，中国这个全球第二大经济体的增长模式正在从传 ...

Core Viewpoint - Regional integration is essential for consolidating sustainable economic growth in Asia, especially in the context of trade tensions [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts that Asia will grow by 4.5% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, with an upward revision from April's predictions due to strong export performance and supportive macroeconomic policies [1][2] - Asia is expected to contribute approximately 60% to global economic growth over the next two years, reinforcing its position as the largest growth engine globally [2] Group 2: Factors Supporting Growth - Key factors supporting the growth include lower overall tariff levels compared to previous forecasts, strong export performance, and favorable financial conditions across the region [1] - The need for targeted fiscal support for impacted industries and individuals, along with accommodative monetary policies in the context of low inflation, is emphasized to further stimulate the economy [2] Group 3: Regional Integration and Internal Demand - The report highlights that only about 30% of Asia's demand for final products comes from within the region, indicating significant potential for increased regional integration [2] - Strengthening regional integration can create larger markets for intermediate and final products, thereby enhancing sustainable growth prospects for Asia [2] Group 4: U.S.-China Cooperation - The cooperation between the U.S. and China, as the two largest economies, is crucial for global benefits, particularly in terms of demand for goods, including intermediate products [2]

Core Insights - The IMF highlights two major factors that could hinder economic growth in Asia: rising interest rates and a strengthening US dollar [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - A strong dollar and rising long-term US Treasury yields may increase overall debt costs in Asian markets, posing challenges for countries that have shown resilience against US tariffs [1] - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand tariff impacts, allowing governments and businesses to borrow at lower costs [1][3] Group 2: Future Projections - The IMF projects that Asia's economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% in the previous year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from earlier forecasts due to strong export growth [2] - The growth forecast for 2026 is expected to further decline to 4.1%, indicating a downward risk for economic growth in Asia [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and anchor inflation expectations [3] - The relative moderation of inflation in Asia compared to other regions suggests that central banks can effectively manage inflation expectations due to public trust in their independence from government interference [3]

Group 1 - The IMF warns that a strong dollar and rising long-term interest rates could challenge the resilience of Asian countries in responding to US tariffs [1][2] - A sustained strong dollar or a significant rise in long-term US Treasury yields may increase the overall debt costs for Asian markets [1][2] - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand the impact of US tariffs this year [1][2] Group 2 - The IMF projects that the Asian economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% last year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from its April forecast due to strong export growth [2] - The IMF warns that the risks to Asian economic growth are skewed to the downside, with a further slowdown expected to 4.1% in 2026 [3] - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and ensure inflation expectations remain anchored [3]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that a sudden strengthening of the US dollar, combined with a significant rise in long-term interest rates, could challenge the resilience of Asian countries in responding to US tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Conditions and Impact on Asia - A strong dollar or rising long-term US Treasury yields may increase the overall debt costs for Asian markets [1]. - Low interest rates and a weak dollar have helped Asian markets withstand the impact of US tariffs this year [1]. - If the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and the dollar weakens, Asian central banks could relax monetary policies to support economic growth without fearing capital outflow risks [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects that the overall Asian economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% last year, but up by 0.6 percentage points from the IMF's April forecast due to strong export growth before higher US tariffs took effect [2]. - However, the IMF warns that the risks to Asian economic growth are skewed to the downside, with a further slowdown to 4.1% expected in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Many Asian countries may need to pursue further monetary easing to bring inflation back to target ranges and ensure inflation expectations remain anchored [3]. - Despite a rebound in demand post-pandemic and rising raw material prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation in Asia remains relatively mild compared to other regions [3]. - The independence of central banks is crucial for achieving price stability, and they should not be burdened with excessive missions and liabilities [3].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The HSBC Global Investment Research Chief Asian Economist, Frederic Neumann, predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a more conservative outlook suggesting a maximum of three rate cuts overall [1][2] - Market expectations for a September rate cut exceed 90%, influenced by upcoming labor market data which could impact the decision [1][2] - Neumann notes that if the Fed proceeds with a rate cut, Asian central banks are likely to follow suit, with countries like India, South Korea, and Indonesia already lowering rates [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook for Asia - HSBC maintains an optimistic outlook for Asia's economic growth, projecting a 4.4% growth rate for 2025, significantly higher than the global average of 2.6% [2] - Despite uncertainties in the global economy during the first half of the year, HSBC has not adjusted its growth forecasts, citing stronger-than-expected growth in the first half [3] - The firm anticipates a slowdown in economic growth for the following year, with a downward revision of the U.S. growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.3% [3] Group 3: Hong Kong's Financial Sector Trends - Hong Kong's status as an international financial center is expected to strengthen due to global capital reallocation and increasing outbound investment from China [6] - The city is becoming a hub for Chinese capital seeking international opportunities, contrasting with previous trends where foreign capital predominantly flowed into China [6] - The rise in wealth among Chinese residents is benefiting Hong Kong's financial markets, including stock, insurance, and asset management sectors [6] Group 4: Competition Between Hong Kong and Singapore - In private wealth management, Hong Kong is seen as surpassing Singapore, serving as a key conduit for Chinese capital to the world [6] - Singapore retains unique competitive advantages in foreign exchange trading and financing activities related to ASEAN [6]

Group 1 - HSBC Global Research indicates that the upcoming tariffs on products exported from Asia to the US may lead to a decline in shipment volumes in the coming months [1] - Companies are likely to suppress investments amid uncertainty due to the tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could cause oil prices to surge [1] - Asian countries, except for Japan where policy normalization remains a goal, are expected to further cut interest rates with the help of a weakening US dollar [1] Group 2 - There is a focus on whether Asian consumers can support economic growth amidst external adverse factors [1] - There remains hope that household consumption can offset some of the economic weakness [1]

Core Insights - The Boao Forum for Asia 2025 Annual Conference highlighted the resilience of Asian economies, particularly China and ASEAN, in the face of challenges, projecting a GDP growth rate of 4.5% for 2025 [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The report anticipates a slight increase in the weighted actual GDP growth rate for Asia from 4.4% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 [3]. - Asia's share of global output is expected to rise from 48.1% to 48.6% by 2025, indicating a strengthening economic position [3]. Employment and Income Trends - Although the employment growth rate in Asia is projected to decline from 1.94% to 1.22% in 2025, the overall unemployment rate is expected to be 4.39%, lower than the global rate of 4.96% [3]. - The report suggests that real income levels in Asia are likely to improve as economic growth rebounds and inflation continues to decrease [3]. Trade and Digital Economy - Asia remains a core player in global value chains, with a significant share of 41.17% in global intermediate goods trade in 2023, surpassing the EU and North America [3]. - The e-commerce sector in the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid growth, with a retail e-commerce growth rate of 8.4% in 2024 and a 10.8% year-on-year increase in China's cross-border e-commerce [4]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - The report identifies potential challenges for Asian economies, including low global economic growth, escalating trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - Despite these challenges, the stock market indices in Asia are expected to remain on an upward trend, with stable exchange rates anticipated for major economies [5]. Future Directions and Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for Asian countries to leverage their demographic advantages and enhance human capital development to improve labor productivity [7]. - It advocates for increased investment in digital technology and international cooperation to foster sustainable development and economic integration [6][7].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Projections - Asia's economic growth is projected to reach 4.5% in 2025, slightly up from 4.4% in 2024, with GDP share of the world expected to rise from 48.1% in 2024 to 48.6% in 2025 [2] - China, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Mongolia, Cambodia, and Indonesia are expected to maintain growth rates above 5% [2] - China's economy is anticipated to remain strong, supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving the business environment [2] Group 2: Employment and Income Trends - Asia's employment growth rate is expected to decline from 1.94% to 1.22% in 2025, while the overall unemployment rate is projected to be 4.39%, lower than the global average of 4.96% [3] - The region's income levels are expected to improve as economic growth rebounds and inflation continues to decline [3] Group 3: Trade and Investment Dynamics - Asia is projected to face challenges in trade and investment due to global economic conditions, but digital and service trade are highlighted as bright spots [3] - Foreign direct investment in Asia is estimated to decline by 7.4% in 2024, with India and ASEAN showing growth in greenfield projects and foreign direct investment, respectively [4] - The region's financial markets are expected to remain stable despite increased volatility, with most economies maintaining upward trends in stock market indices [5] Group 4: Economic Integration and Trade Relations - The integration of Asian economies is on the rise, with a high trade dependency rate of 56.3% among Asian economies [6] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is enhancing trade and investment flows, although challenges remain in market integration and rule utilization [9][10] - RCEP is expected to create trade effects and stimulate foreign direct investment, contributing to the deepening of regional value chains [10] Group 5: Financial Market and Policy Outlook - Asian economies are expected to increase fiscal expansion and maintain loose monetary policies, with many countries experiencing rising fiscal deficit rates [5] - The region's financial integration is growing, with significant cross-border banking assets and a stable asset allocation among major economies [8]

Core Insights - The report predicts that Asia's overall economic growth will reach 4.5% in 2025, with China remaining a key driver of this growth [5] Trade and Investment - Asia's total merchandise trade reached $12.7 trillion in the first three quarters of last year, growing by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing the global average growth of 3.3% [3] - The share of Asia in global merchandise trade increased from 34.9% to 35.8% [3] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to Asia are projected to decline by 7.4% in 2024, while outflows continue to grow; China's outbound direct investment rose by 11.3%, significantly higher than the global average of 1.2% [3] Employment and Economic Indicators - Asia's overall unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.4% in 2024 to 4.39% in 2025, remaining below the global rate of 4.96% [4] - The share of Asia's output in global output was 36.1% last year and is expected to rise to 36.4% this year; in terms of purchasing power parity, it is projected to increase from 48.1% to 48.6% [5] Financial Market Outlook - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding financial markets, indicating that while stock indices may experience volatility, they are expected to rise slowly; however, many Asian currencies may face depreciation pressure [3]