Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season with expectations remaining, and steel prices will maintain a volatile trend. The iron ore market is in the consumption off - season and will likely show a volatile and weakening trend. The coking coal and coke market has weak demand expectations and will maintain a volatile downward trend. The power coal market has a short - term price increase due to supply tightening in some areas, but the long - term supply is still in a loose pattern [1][3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 2977 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3099 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 93,200 tons. For rebar, the Middle East conflict has repeated disturbances, and the supply - demand contradiction of building materials is gradually accumulating. For hot - rolled coil, the profit of sheet metal is better than that of building materials, and the production and sales are resilient. Although exports have declined slightly, they remain at a high level in the short term. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant [1]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are recommended for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuated. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 703 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.42%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly. The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, with a total of 35.07 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.63 million tons, a 7.5% increase from the previous period. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 813,000 tons, a 31.22% decrease from the previous day. The forward - looking spot transaction volume was 1.1 million tons, a 266.67% increase from the previous period. The iron ore price lacks the momentum to rebound, and it is likely to maintain a volatile and weakening trend in the short term. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: A single - side strategy of "volatile and weakening" is recommended, and no strategies are recommended for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated downward. The fourth - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, with a cumulative decline of 220 - 240 yuan/ton. The loss of coking enterprises has expanded again, and the coke production has slightly decreased. For coking coal, some coal mines in Shanxi have not resumed production, and the supply has shrunk significantly. The downstream procurement of low - price coal has improved. The inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port is still at a high level, and the customs clearance continues to fluctuate at a low level. In the short term, the futures prices of coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Strategy**: A strategy of "volatile" is recommended for both coking coal and coke, and no strategies are recommended for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are stable with a slight increase. Due to strict safety and environmental inspections, some coal mines have stopped production for maintenance, resulting in a tightening of coal supply in some areas. The rigid replenishment demand of chemical and coking users has increased, and prices have slightly increased. At ports, the inventory reduction effect is obvious, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has moved up. The price of imported coal has stopped falling. Currently, downstream users are mainly inquiring, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high. In the short term, the price will rise slightly, and in the long term, the supply is still in a loose pattern [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are recommended [9].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Construction steel mills have resumed production, and the weekly output of rebar has increased, but the increase is limited and still at a relatively low level. The supply side is operating stably [3]. - Rebar demand shows a seasonal decline. The weekly apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions are relatively sluggish. Weak demand will continue to suppress steel prices [3]. - Currently, rebar supply is increasing while demand is seasonally weak. Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals remain weakly stable, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively good news is that inventory is at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are limited. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a low - level shock operation. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies for investment [3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations. As of June 20, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3070 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [1][10]. - Steel profits have increased slightly, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by +6 CNY/ton, +20 CNY/ton, and -26 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Steel production has risen, with a total output of 8.69 million tons for major steel products, a week-on-week increase of 96,600 tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, various steel prices show mixed trends, with rebar prices stable at 3070 CNY/ton, hot-rolled steel increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 30 CNY/ton to 3510 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel products reached 8.69 million tons, with rebar production increasing by 46,100 tons to 2.12 million tons. Total social inventory decreased by 144,300 tons to 9.12 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in steel profitability, with long-process steel margins showing minor increases while short-process margins have decreased [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it recommends paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].

螺纹周报 研究报告 中期震荡为主，短线或有走弱风险 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 26 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 日星期一 | 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 1.74%。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作 任何保证。本文中的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考， 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 基本面：据世界钢铁协会，4 月全球粗钢产量同比下降 0.3%，至 1.557 亿吨；其中，中国钢铁 ...

期货研究报告|钢材周报 2025-04-27 市场情绪起伏，钢价震荡运行 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 |  yucaiyun@htfc.com | | --- | | 从业资格号：F03096767 | | 投资咨询号：Z0020310 | 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 本周市场情绪起伏较大，钢价震荡运行。整体来看钢材价格目前处于底部区间，基本面 无明显矛盾，铁水高产量压制着钢价上涨，步入消费旺季的现货市场成交氛围较好，底 部价格得到支撑。当前建材库存处于历史低位，且库存持续去库，国内制造业发展较为 乐观，卷板供需两旺。出口数据表现仍有韧性，但是在关税影响下市场预期后续会有下 降，供给端变化影响市场价格。后续持续关注钢厂产量、现货成交情况、 ...