Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.34% to 3528.90 points and a trading volume of 412.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.30% to 10905.91 points with a trading volume of 602.9 billion yuan, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.26% to 2275.26 points with a trading volume of 279.6 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The rare earth permanent magnet, lithium mining, coal, and military industries saw significant gains, with notable stocks like Huahong Technology and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [2] - Conversely, sectors such as gaming, photovoltaic, beauty care, and consumer electronics experienced declines, with Yamaton dropping over 5% [2] Institutional Insights - Hengsheng Qianhai Fund anticipates that the market will continue to exhibit structural trends in the short term, with external uncertainties gradually expanding from tariffs, while domestic policies are expected to remain proactive [4] - Citic Securities highlighted that the stricter compliance checks in the mining sector, particularly regarding lithium resource extraction, could impact domestic lithium supply significantly [4] - The long-term outlook for lithium prices remains strong, supported by a cost range of 60,000 to 70,000 yuan per ton, alongside robust demand and short-term supply disruptions [4] Consumer Market Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to reduce restrictive measures in the service consumption sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aiming to enhance the quality of service supply [5] - China's retail sales are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years [6] - The share of residents' service consumption expenditure has increased by 3.5 percentage points to 46.1% [6] ETF Market Activity - The launch of 10 technology innovation bond ETFs saw a remarkable increase in scale, with total assets reaching 764.98 billion yuan, marking a growth of 163.86% from the initial issuance [7] - Four of these ETFs surpassed 10 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong market interest and participation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Cangge Mining indicates that its subsidiary, Cangge Lithium, has halted production for rectification due to illegal lithium resource mining, reflecting stricter compliance scrutiny in the domestic mining industry [1] Industry Summary - The mining sector in China is experiencing increased regulatory focus on compliance with mining rights, with local governments prioritizing the crackdown on illegal activities [1] - There is a potential risk of compliance issues spilling over to other lithium extraction companies in Qinghai and Yichun, which could lead to production halts and significantly impact domestic lithium resource supply [1] Price Outlook - Long-term lithium prices are expected to have strong cost support at 60,000-70,000 yuan per ton, combined with short-term supply disruptions and robust demand, suggesting that lithium prices may emerge from their bottom range [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Material factory production increased slightly month-on-month, but downstream receiving was weak, and downstream inventory only increased slightly after excluding exchange warehouse receipts. Sellers actively raised prices, and there was a large difference in the acceptance of high-priced lithium between upstream and downstream. Lithium salt production remained high, and high-frequency output was close to the previous high, and price increases drove upstream复产 [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rise in the futures price, the price of lithium ore strengthened [4]. - Futures: Affected by the low level of exchange warehouse receipts and various market information disturbances, lithium prices mostly rose from low levels but were blocked near new highs. Open interest first increased and then decreased, and the candlestick chart showed a doji structure several times, indicating obvious differences between bulls and bears. The KDJ sensitivity line weakened, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, indicating a weakening expectation [4]. - Later view: The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may回调. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%): The price increased from $110/ton to $113/ton, a change of $3.00 and a change rate of 2.73% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6.00 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: It increased from 6.33 million yuan/ton to 6.43 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 1.58% [6]. - Spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.05 million yuan/ton to 0.00 million yuan/ton, a change of -6.05 million yuan and a change rate of -100.00% [6]. - Main contract price of lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.37 million yuan/ton to 6.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.08 million yuan and a change rate of -1.22% [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles): The price remained unchanged at 5.80 million yuan/ton [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles): The price decreased from 6.32 million yuan/ton to 6.30 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.02 million yuan and a change rate of -0.32% [6]. - Total lithium carbonate inventory: It increased from 103,436 tons to 120,032 tons, a change of 16,596 tons and a change rate of 16.04% [6]. - Lithium iron phosphate price: It increased from 3.06 million yuan/ton to 3.20 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.14 million yuan and a change rate of 4.58% [6]. - Lithium cobalt oxide price: It increased from 20.90 million yuan/ton to 21.00 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 0.48% [6]. - Ternary material price (811): The price remained unchanged at 14.45 million yuan/ton [6]. - Ternary material price (622): The price remained unchanged at 12.65 million yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of July 11, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,603 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,020 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2509 was 322,900 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of July 11, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 18,158 tons, an increase of 465 tons from the previous period. Driven by high prices, some high-cost production capacities have planned to resume production, and the in-production capacities are operating actively, so supply is expected to remain abundant [8]. - Import: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month-on-month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 3%. In June, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was about 14,600 barrels, of which about 10,000 tons were shipped to China, a month-on-month increase of 6%. Overall, although the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased slightly month-on-month, it remained at a low level. In May, the import of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, while the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% [9][10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of July 11, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, the operating rate was 61.8%, and the inventory was 39,200 tons, a decrease of 396 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,830 tons, the operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Overall, the production of cathode materials increased month-on-month. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased while its operating rate increased, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate market was slightly stronger than the ternary material market. However, from the perspective of processing fees, there was no obvious improvement in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, and the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent, and price fluctuations were more affected by lithium prices [11]. - New energy vehicles: From July 1 to 6, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 135,000, a year-on-year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.583 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may gradually drag down demand. Although the export of new energy vehicles has improved recently, the expected export to Europe may weaken due to the deadlock in China-EU trade negotiations. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the United States was finally approved, which will eliminate government subsidies for US residents to purchase new energy vehicles after September 30. The price competition among car companies to stimulate consumption may gradually subside, and the inventory cycle of raw materials and finished products of car companies is expected to shorten, which will suppress the production intensity of vehicle manufacturers. Overall, there is no obvious incremental expectation on the demand side from terminal consumption to inventory management of car companies [12]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,032 tons, an increase of about 9,059 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 34,416 tons, a decrease of about 517 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 85,616 tons, an increase of about 9,576 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 11,603 tons, a decrease of 9,433 tons from the previous week. Although the spot inventory increased significantly, the increase mainly came from the outflow of exchange warehouse receipts. After subtracting the outflow of warehouse receipts, the spot inventory was relatively stable, indicating that the demand performance was acceptable [13]. This Week's Outlook - The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may be volatile and weak. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [14]. Industry News - Derui Lithium is advancing the completion acceptance of its new production capacity, which has not been put into operation yet. The new production capacity will gradually be released according to sales and orders, and the initial production capacity and product types will still focus on lithium-manganese and lithium-iron primary batteries [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Inner Mongolia successfully produced trial products, marking a key progress in the construction of the first county-level complete lithium battery industrial chain in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe after improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate [15]. - A lithium ore deposit with 490 million tons of lithium ore was discovered in the Jijiaoshan mining area in Hunan. The project has started the construction of mining, beneficiation, and smelting [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of lithium carbonate futures prices, battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other related data [17][18][19]

Group 1: Price Trends - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped below 60,000 yuan per ton, reaching 59,900 yuan on June 26, marking a significant decline from previous highs [2] - Lithium prices have decreased sharply throughout the year, with a notable drop from 78,800 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 61,200 yuan per ton on May 28, representing a year-on-year decline of 44.97% [3][4] - The current market situation shows a serious oversupply of lithium, with high inventory levels that have not been effectively addressed, limiting the potential for price recovery [6][9] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has seen a surge in lithium mining projects due to previous high prices, leading to a significant increase in lithium production capacity [3][4] - On the demand side, the growth rate of the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors has slowed, impacting lithium demand. Factors include high electric vehicle prices and inadequate charging infrastructure [4][5] - Argentina, a major lithium resource country, is expected to increase its annual lithium production capacity by 79% to 202,000 tons as new projects come online [5] Group 3: Industry Impact - The decline in lithium prices has directly reduced production costs for battery manufacturers, improving profit margins and allowing for increased investment in research and development [8] - Lower lithium prices are expected to decrease the purchase cost of electric vehicles, potentially stimulating consumer interest and boosting sales in the electric vehicle market [8][9] - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market is likely to intensify as more companies enter the sector, driven by the perceived potential of the market [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that lithium prices may stabilize between 50,000 to 70,000 yuan per ton in the near term, but the market remains uncertain due to various influencing factors [7] - Long-term demand for lithium is expected to grow steadily as the electric vehicle market continues to expand, although the path to balance supply and demand may be gradual and subject to fluctuations [6][9]

Group 1: Market Trends - Lithium carbonate main contract hit a historical low of 58,400 yuan/ton but rebounded to 61,640 yuan/ton during the day, closing at 60,700 yuan/ton, a 3.06% increase [1] - The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 59,900 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade averaged 58,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of warehouse receipts decreased to 22,375 lots, down 4,404 lots from the previous day, indicating strong buying intent [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market remains in a state of oversupply, with abundant circulating sources and low purchasing willingness from downstream material companies [1][2] - Major lithium salt companies maintain firm pricing due to high long-term contract orders, while smaller companies face price reductions due to inventory pressure [2] - The demand for ternary materials is weak, with companies facing losses due to high costs of raw materials [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - New Lake Futures suggests that the recent price rebound is unlikely to be sustained, with overall supply pressure remaining high and no significant demand improvement expected [3] - Jinrui Futures indicates that the expectation of oversupply has not changed, with insufficient upward drivers for prices [4] - Dadi Futures warns that without significant supply disruptions, it is hard to believe lithium prices will stop falling or recover [5][6]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a significant increase during trading, raising questions about whether the price decline has halted [1] - Institutions believe that without significant disruptions on the supply side, it is difficult for the market to trust that lithium prices will stabilize [1]

Group 1: Industry Events - The 2025 High-Performance Sodium Battery Industry Summit is scheduled for June 9, 2025, at the Shangri-La Hotel in Suzhou [2] - The 2025 High-Performance Solid-State Battery Technology and Application Summit will take place on June 10, 2025, at the same venue [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Guansheng Co. revealed that its semi-solid lithium iron phosphate battery is primarily aimed at energy storage customers, showing significant safety improvements with no combustion or explosion during puncture, extrusion, and collision tests. The battery has achieved a cycle life of 12,000 times, surpassing traditional liquid batteries. The company's factory in Wenzhou is expected to partially commence production by the end of this year, with full production anticipated by mid-2026 [3] - CATL has established two new energy companies, Changsha Runshi New Energy Co., Ltd. and Chongren County Runshi New Energy Co., Ltd., with registered capital of 580,000 yuan and 3.81 million yuan, respectively. These companies will engage in power generation, transmission, distribution, electrical installation services, energy management contracts, battery sales, and IoT technology services [5] Group 3: Market Analysis - CITIC Securities reported that lithium prices have slowed their decline in Q1 2025, leading to a slight recovery in overseas lithium ore prices and improved operations for salt lake enterprises. However, the supply side is clearing slowly, with lithium prices dropping to 60,000 yuan/ton in Q2, significantly increasing the industry's loss rate. Expectations for mine production cuts and price stabilization are rising, but the reduction in production is less than anticipated. The forecast for lithium prices in H2 2025 is adjusted to a range of 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost stocks that may benefit from a rebound in lithium prices [7] Group 4: New Projects - Zhongke Electric signed a contract for a 200,000-ton lithium battery material base project in Oman, with a total investment not exceeding 8 billion yuan. The project will be constructed in two phases, each with a planned capacity of 100,000 tons per year, and is expected to take 36 months for each phase [13] - Ruipu Lanjun has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Indonesia's Bakrie & Brothers Group to deliver over 3,000 electric buses and trucks' power batteries by 2025, focusing on "green transportation, made in Indonesia" [15]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium price decline has slowed down in Q1 2025, leading to a slight recovery in overseas lithium mine prices and improved operations for salt lake companies, but the industry is facing significant losses as prices drop to 60,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, overseas lithium mine production decreased, with a total output of 1.01 million tons, a decline of over 10% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Major lithium mines saw a slight price recovery in Q1 2025, with average prices rising above $800/ton, driven by strong demand in the Chinese market [2] - The price of lithium concentrate has entered a new downward trend since Q2 2025, dropping below $650/ton by the end of May, leading to increased operational pressure and losses for overseas lithium miners [3] Group 2: South American Salt Lake Operations - In Q1 2025, lithium sales for ALB, SQM, and LAAC/Ganfeng Lithium were 44,000 tons, 55,000 tons, and 7,200 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6%, 26%, and 60% [4] - ALB and SQM showed improved operational performance in Q1 2025 due to reduced price declines and increased contributions from other business segments [4] - South American salt lake lithium companies are continuing their expansion plans, with LAR and Ganfeng Lithium aiming to increase their lithium production capacity in Argentina to over 200,000 tons [4] Group 3: Supply and Price Outlook - As of the end of May 2025, domestic lithium carbonate prices fell to 60,000 yuan/ton, further expanding industry losses and strengthening expectations for mine production cuts and price rebounds [5] - The company expects lithium prices to stabilize and rebound at current levels, but long-term prices are anticipated to remain at the bottom due to oversupply and cost-cutting efforts by lithium resource companies [5] - The adjusted forecast for lithium prices in the second half of 2025 is set at 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the cost side has stopped falling and stabilized, with some third - party quotes rising. The pre - scheduled production of cathode material factories has been reduced, downstream sentiment is cautious, market transactions are sluggish, and there is no obvious improvement on the demand side. The upstream resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are increasing, resulting in a weak fundamental situation [4]. - In terms of cost, during the reporting period, the price of spodumene rebounded, while the mica price continued to decline [4]. - On the trading floor, after the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement, there was a short - term rally due to short - sellers leaving the market, but the rebound was limited, and the trading volume increased significantly. The short - selling trend continued, and the price hit a new low on Friday [4]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment is strong, and the price may break through the previous low. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized and miners are willing to support the price, the lithium ore resources are not scarce, and the bargaining power of the mining end is limited. The supply - side resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are limited. The salt lake is still in the production - increasing stage, and there is an inventory expectation at the import end. The demand side has weak growth, and the lithium price may remain weak [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) remained unchanged at 115 dollars/ton; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 1.13% to 715 dollars/ton; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased by 1.70% to 695 dollars/ton [6]. - The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 1.59% to 6.30 million yuan/ton; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, a 100% decrease [6]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.34% to 92,073 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,624 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 62,580 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 328,700 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 16, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 15,843 tons, a decrease of 205 tons from the previous period. Although smelters had production cuts, the salt lake was in the production - increasing stage, so the supply - side contraction was limited [8]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a 47% month - on - month increase and a 4.8% year - on - year decrease. The import from Chile and Argentina changed, and the increase in imports from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply in May [8]. - In March, the import of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease. The imports from different countries had different changes, and overall, lithium ore resources were not scarce [9][10]. - In terms of demand, for cathode materials, the production and prices of some products decreased, and the overall cathode material market was in an oversupply situation, with most prices still falling. Some cathode material factories reduced their production plans in May, and there was no obvious increase in lithium demand expected [11]. - In the new energy vehicle market, from May 1 - 11, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 294,000, a 32% year - on - year increase and a 29% month - on - month increase. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 51.3%. New energy vehicle consumption still had resilience, and new policies were introduced [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,073 tons, an increase of 311 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased, while the market inventory decreased, showing a differentiated trend [13]. This Week's Outlook - The short - selling sentiment continues, and the lithium price may hit a new low. There is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment on the trading floor is strong, and the price may break through. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized, the supply - side resumption of production is slow, and the demand side has weak growth [14]. Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million, and the sales of various consumer goods increased [15]. - On May 7, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, supply structure, and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, cathode materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [17][19][22][28]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-09 库存小幅去化，碳酸锂盘面下跌后小幅反弹 市场分析 2025年5月8日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于63960元/吨，收于64280元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.43%。当 日成交量为309284手，持仓量为267396手，较前一交易日减少9504手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳970 元/吨。所有合约总持仓433977手，较前一交易日减少3011手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加123069手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.88 。当日碳酸锂仓单36241手，较上个交易日减少3手。盘面：当日碳酸锂开盘偏弱， 空头短暂主导，尾盘拉升但缺乏持续性，最终收跌0.43%。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月8日电池级碳酸锂报价6.35-6.7万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.31-6.41万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨。周度产量增长至1.83万吨，环比增加3866吨， 周度库存小幅减少464吨至13.16万吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续大幅下移。在头部电芯厂客供比例进一步拉高 的情况下，下游材料厂采购意 ...