消息面上，自10月中旬以来，碳酸锂价格近期持续上行，累计涨幅近30%。11月18日，广期所碳酸锂主 力合约盘中涨超4%后回落。中信期货分析师杨飞表示，预计11月下旬到12月碳酸锂需求保持强势，需 密切关注明年一季度淡季的需求表现。 大和发布研报称，目前对明年锂价上行空间仍抱保守看法。该行预测明年锂价将维持于每吨7.5万至9万 元人民币区间，较当前的每吨8.5万元水平上行空间有限，相信中国锂价于今年第四季至明年第一季仍 然偏软，主要由于农历新年需求疲弱及全球电动车迎来淡季。 智通财经APP获悉，锂电股集体走低，截至发稿，中创新航(03931)跌6.66%，报31.1港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)跌5.75%，报59.05港元；天齐锂业(09696)跌5%，报54.15港元；宁德时代(03750)跌2.47%，报513 港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/10 - 11/14), lithium salt prices increased with rising positions. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 rose by 6.5% and 6.1% respectively, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5.9%. Lithium hydroxide prices also edged up [1]. - The main reason for the significant increase in the lithium price center last week was concentrated on Monday. Currently, the position volume remains high, and on Friday, some long - position holders took profits, causing the market to oscillate at a high level. The core logic for long - position holders to increase positions at high levels is the strong - reality trading under continuous strong demand and accelerated inventory reduction, as well as the expected cost increase of Jiangxi mica mines after paying the mining right transfer income. There are large differences in the market's expectations for the resumption of production rhythm. Attention should be paid to potential resumption information after the publicity period [2][15]. - In the short term, the lithium price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, and range operation can be maintained. In the medium term, one can look for opportunities to short at high levels after the demand weakens month - on - month and the project resumption rhythm becomes clear [2][15][16] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Chile's October Shipment and Market Supply Game - In October, Chile's lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports increased marginally after the lithium price rose. The market's game on supply has intensified [2][15] 2. Week - on - Week Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium: The joint development of the PPGS lithium salt lake project with LAR in Argentina has made key progress, and the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report" has been obtained. The project plans to submit a large - scale investment promotion system application in the first half of 2026. The project has about 15.07 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources, with a designed annual production capacity of about 150,000 tons of LCE, to be built in three phases [17]. - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports in October decreased by 85% month - on - month, mainly because Sigma Lithium, the largest lithium spodumene producer in the country, did not export during this period. However, exports this year have increased by about 54% year - on - year [17]. - Core Lithium has increased the ore reserves of Grants and cut the project's capital expenditure by 35 - 45 million Australian dollars. The revised plan also advances the production time of the first batch of ore and increases the Grants ore reserves by 33% [18]. - Rio Tinto has shelved its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which involves an investment of $2.95 billion and will enter the "maintenance" state [18]. - The pilot program for conditional exemption of road transportation of power and energy - storage lithium batteries has been officially launched, which will effectively release compliant transportation capacity and solve the contradiction between the "zero - inventory" production model and the shortage of transportation capacity [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - The spot price of lithium concentrate is strong, with the spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) reaching $1,006/ton on 11/14/25, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [13][20] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Intensified Game of Resumption Disturbance - The game of resumption disturbance in the lithium salt market has intensified. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11 tons, mainly contributed by salt lake production, while the production of mica and spodumene decreased marginally. The weekly inventory was 120,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,481 tons. The capacity utilization rate of salt factories is only 60%. After the increase in spodumene port inventory, domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2][15] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Continue to be Strong - Ternary and lithium cobalt oxide continue to be strong. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide have shown an upward trend. For example, the spot average price of ternary material 523 increased by 4.4% month - on - month, and the spot average price of ternary material 622 increased by 9.5% month - on - month [10][13] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in September Reached 50% - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The installed capacity of power batteries maintained high growth, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed a good growth trend [10]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd., with stock code 001203 and bond code 127070 [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity took place on November 6, 2025, at the office of Hunan Dazhong He Lithium Mine Co., Ltd. [2]. - Participants included various funds and securities firms, such as Bosera Fund, Changcheng Fund, and CITIC Securities [2]. Group 3: Lithium Mining Projects - The company is focused on acquiring high-quality lithium resources both domestically and internationally [2]. - The Hunan lithium project has a processing capacity of 20 million tons per year, with an annual output of 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate [6]. - The Sichuan project is planned to have a processing capacity of 2.6 million tons per year, with ongoing exploration showing good potential for resource increase [6]. Group 4: Cost Advantages - The Sichuan project benefits from high-grade lithium ore and significant future resource expansion potential, leading to economies of scale [4]. - The Hunan project utilizes an integrated mining and processing approach, significantly reducing costs and improving lithium recovery rates [4]. Group 5: Environmental and Technological Innovations - The company has developed a lithium slag harmless comprehensive extraction technology that reduces slag volume by 50% and meets Class I solid waste standards [3]. - The new sulfuric acid lithium extraction process enhances lithium recovery rates and allows for the simultaneous recovery of potassium and other valuable elements [4]. Group 6: Market Outlook and Strategy - The company anticipates that lithium prices will stabilize at reasonable levels due to supply-demand dynamics and high-cost producers exiting the market [5]. - The company plans to invest in new lithium battery materials based on market trends and will collaborate with quality downstream enterprises [7]. Group 7: Capital Expenditure and Financing - The total investment for the first phase of the Hunan project is approximately 176.22 million yuan, with an additional 130.43 million yuan for the lithium carbonate project [7]. - The company currently has stable operating cash flow to support project construction and does not have immediate financing needs [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recovery in lithium prices has significantly improved the performance of several lithium mining companies in the third quarter of 2025 [1] - Six lithium-related companies in the A-share market have disclosed their Q3 2025 reports, with notable profit recovery observed [1] - Companies such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Zhongkuang Resources, and Tibet Mining Development reported a turnaround in net profit compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - Sichuan New Energy Power achieved an operating income of 609 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.52%, and a net profit of 41.48 million yuan, up 1210.80% year-on-year, attributed to the production ramp-up of its lithium subsidiary [1] - The increase in lithium prices and the commencement of shipments from Indonesian factories contributed to Shengxin Lithium Energy's profitability in Q3 [1] - The lithium price rebounded significantly since mid-June, with futures contracts rising from a low of 58,500 yuan/ton to a high of 89,800 yuan/ton by August 18 [2] Group 3 - The recovery in lithium prices is primarily driven by reduced supply and improved downstream demand, along with declining lithium inventory [2] - Looking ahead, the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see lithium prices fluctuate between 68,000 yuan/ton and 75,000 yuan/ton, influenced by supply and demand dynamics [2] - Long-term projections suggest that lithium prices will remain in the range of 70,000 yuan/ton to 100,000 yuan/ton, supported by cost and demand factors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating between 78,000 and 83,000 yuan/ton in the short term [1][2] - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 80,000 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 81,620 yuan and a low of 79,580 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.03% [1] - Market inventory has decreased significantly, with total inventory down by 2,200 tons to 132,700 tons, and downstream inventory reduced by 2,000 tons to 58,000 tons, indicating a recovery in market trading [1] Group 2 - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the rebound in lithium prices is supported by high operating rates of leading cathode material manufacturers and a decrease in market inventory [1] - Jinrui Futures notes that the fundamental recovery and continuous inventory reduction are driving significant price increases, with expectations for prices to remain strong in the near term [1] - Nanhua Futures highlights that increased supply from salt lake production and potential recovery of "Jianxiawo" could lead to a weaker price trend, while demand from lithium battery material companies is expected to grow, providing support for prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the lithium carbonate futures market, including market data changes, supply - demand and inventory in the industrial chain, and provides price trend judgments. It notes that there are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, with supply increasing while demand is strong. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next one to two weeks, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and downstream acceptance [31][32]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes**: On October 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract rose 3.05% to 74,940 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened by 2,220 yuan/ton to - 2,040 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 5.61% to 178,000 lots, while trading volume increased by 19.38% to 269,000 lots [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: On the supply side, the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, and new production capacity was released, with the total lithium carbonate output expected to continue growing in October. On the demand side, the prices of ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate increased, and the cost transfer pressure grew. The retail sales of new energy vehicles from October 1 - 12 showed a slight year - on - year decline but a month - on - month increase. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, and the spot market trading was inactive [2]. - **Market Summary**: Attention should be paid to whether the new energy market can form a positive influence under the rumor of the establishment of a polysilicon platform company. The supply - side capacity release and the demand - side peak - season stocking offset each other. Although the price increase of ternary materials and energy - storage demand drive the demand for lithium carbonate, the downstream's acceptance of high prices is decreasing, and electrolyte enterprises have not fully transferred the cost pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 74,940 yuan/ton, up 3.05% from the previous day; the basis was - 2,040 yuan/ton, down 1,233.33%. The open interest of the main contract was 177,951 lots, down 5.61%, and the trading volume was 268,890 lots, up 19.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,900 yuan/ton, and the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates also remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose 1.35% to 75,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials rose 2.33% to 131,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotes**: On October 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,064 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, and the average price was 73,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, and the average price was 70,750 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated sharply, and the main contract was in the range of 72,800 - 75,000 yuan/ton. The downstream material factories were cautious, and the overall market trading was inactive. In October, the supply is expected to grow steadily, but the strong demand in the power and energy - storage fields will drive the market into a significant de - stocking stage, forming a stage of tight supply [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 367,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1% but a month - on - month increase of 1%. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 9.236 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles from October 1 - 12 was 328,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% but a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 60.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.775 million units, a year - on - year increase of 31% [7]. - **Industry News**: On October 16, the actual settlement discounts between precursor manufacturers and cathode material enterprises for quarterly orders or large - scale single orders increased significantly. On September 20, the electromechanical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base entered the site, marking the project's civil engineering entering a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will create about 1,000 jobs. On September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was completed and put into operation [8][9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [10][12][14][15][17][18][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak expectation logic may return, and lithium prices will fluctuate downward. Fundamentally, upstream production will remain high due to the lack of supply elasticity. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" end, the restocking demand before the terminal peak season may weaken, and the fundamental expectation is marginally bearish. From a market perspective, as Jiangxi lithium mining companies submit review materials, the risk of mica mine shutdown decreases, and the increase in positions and decline in the secondary main contract reflect the market's bet on the cooling expectation of resource disturbances. It is expected that lithium prices will operate weakly with fluctuations [3][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Market Performance**: In September, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated within a narrow range. At the beginning of the month, driven by the rumor of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Zhenxiawo lithium mine, the lithium price broke through the support level with a gap down. As the rumor was falsified, the price corrected upward. The market was uncertain about the continuous production of Jiangxi lithium mines after September 30th, resulting in a significant cooling of the long - short game and stable price trends. Fundamentally, the lithium carbonate market remained weak. The supply elasticity was absent, and weekly production reached new highs. Although spot inventory decreased significantly, the destocking was mainly due to cross - market transfers rather than industrial demand [8]. - **Price Spread**: In September, the electric - industrial price spread rebounded, rising from - 0.08 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 0.11 million yuan/ton at the end. The lithium carbonate - lithium hydroxide price spread was stable, dropping from - 0.38 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 0.65 million yuan/ton at the end, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities during the reporting period [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Resource Disturbance and Cost**: In September, lithium ore prices dropped significantly. The price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate (5.5% - 6%) fell from $881/ton at the beginning of the month to $812/ton at the end, a monthly decline of about 7.83%. The price of technical - grade lithium mica (2.5%) dropped from 1935 yuan/ton to 1760 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of about 9.04%. As Jiangxi lithium mining companies submitted approval materials and some obtained approvals, the market's expectation of mine shutdown decreased, and mica ore prices further declined after the holiday. It is expected that resource disturbance risks will decrease, and the cost center will move down [13]. - **Supply and Production**: In September, the production capacity of lithium carbonate increased. Many domestic and overseas projects were put into production. The total lithium salt production in September was about 95,442 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 3.31%. The operating rate was 50.28%, a slight increase of about 1.97 percentage points from August. There were structural differences in production, with a slight decrease in mica - extracted lithium production and an increase in spodumene and salt - lake - extracted lithium production [15][16]. - **Import and Export**: Affected by the rapid increase in domestic lithium salt supply, the filling effect of imported lithium salt weakened. Chile's lithium salt exports decreased significantly in August, which may lead to a significant decline in imported resources around October. With the gradual production increase of Argentine salt - lake projects, imported resources may show diversification characteristics. In Chile, Codelco may dominate the Atacama salt - lake mining business, and the salt - lake may face more policy controls [19]. - **Downstream Products**: - **Phosphoric Acid Ferrous Lithium**: In September, the production of phosphoric acid ferrous lithium was about 351,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.77%. The operating rate was 71.18%, a significant increase of about 4.58 percentage points from August. Inventory increased. The prices of power - type and energy - storage - type phosphoric acid ferrous lithium decreased. The supply increase was more significant, and the cost center decline dragged down the price [21]. - **Ternary Materials**: In September, the production of ternary materials was about 79,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.95%. The operating rate was about 47.59%, an increase of about 0.45 percentage points from August. Inventory decreased slightly. The prices of 6 - series and 8 - series ternary materials increased slightly. The fundamentals were stable, and the cost pressure was stronger than that of ferrous lithium [22]. - **Batteries**: In August, the production of power batteries was about 139.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of about 4.41%. Sales were about 98.9 GWh, a decrease of 3 GWh from the previous period. The production - sales ratio was about 70.89%, indicating a large imbalance between production and sales. The loading rate of ferrous lithium batteries was better than that of ternary batteries, and the supply - demand structure of ferrous lithium batteries improved marginally [24][25]. - **Power Terminal**: In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of monthly production and sales declined rapidly, dragging down the cumulative growth rate. The new energy commercial vehicle market remained hot, with high production and sales growth rates and a production - sales ratio close to 100%. The new energy vehicle market showed significant structural differentiation between passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States maintained a growth trend [27][28][29]. - **Inventory Transfer**: As of October 3rd, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Although the market inventory decreased significantly, the factory inventory increased. The decrease in spot inventory was similar to the increase in exchange warehouse receipts, indicating that most of the spot resources flowed to the exchange rather than being consumed by production and sales [30][32]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Due to the lack of supply elasticity, lithium salt production may remain high (neutral to slightly bearish). - **Consumption**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" period ends, the demand intensity shifts from raw material stocking in the middle reaches to the terminal consumption peak season. However, the peak season of the power terminal may be limited in intensity under the control of subsidy funds, which may drag down the resilience of raw material stocking in the middle reaches (neutral to slightly bearish). - **Resources**: Low - cost salt - lake production capacities are being put into operation one after another. Lithium mining companies involved have submitted license renewal materials, and there are no signs of mine shutdown in the market, so the resource disturbance risk decreases (neutral to slightly bearish). Overall, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate downward [33].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the cobalt and lithium industries, focusing on market dynamics, price trends, and supply chain issues related to cobalt and lithium production and consumption. Cobalt Industry Insights - **Congo's Cobalt Quota Policy**: The quota policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is likely to be postponed rather than implemented directly due to the new mining minister's short tenure and cobalt prices not meeting expectations. This has led to a 7-month restriction on domestic cobalt raw material imports, expected to continue until Q1 next year, resulting in tight domestic cobalt supply [1][2]. - **Cobalt Inventory**: Domestic cobalt raw material inventory is relatively sufficient at approximately 80,000 tons, but it is concentrated among a few leading companies, making it susceptible to price manipulation. The inventory of cobalt sulfate and cobalt tetroxide is decreasing, indicating strong demand from downstream ternary materials and consumer electronics, which may drive cobalt prices up [1][4]. - **Production Growth**: Domestic production of ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide has significantly increased, with year-on-year growth of 12% and 44%, respectively. The demand is expected to rise further due to consumer subsidy policies and the traditional peak season [1][5]. - **Price Dynamics**: The price of electric cobalt is expected to stabilize between 250,000 to 300,000 CNY per ton. If the DRC policy is postponed again, cobalt prices may rise above 300,000 CNY, with some companies predicting prices could reach 350,000 to 400,000 CNY [3][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The steel and hardware sectors have paused pricing, indicating a market sentiment of reluctance to sell and expectations of price increases. The price of electric cobalt has lagged, while cobalt sulfate and cobalt tetroxide prices continue to rise, reflecting differing market dynamics for various cobalt products [6]. Factors Influencing Cobalt Prices - **Key Drivers**: The speed of electric cobalt inventory digestion is a crucial driver for cobalt price increases in the short term. In the medium to long term, the DRC's implementation of a quota system is inevitable, which will support high cobalt prices. However, the quota must align with the growth rate of downstream demand [7]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources are expected to benefit from rising cobalt prices due to their wet-process nickel production capabilities in Indonesia, which includes abundant associated cobalt resources. Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt are also noteworthy, as they rely on DRC raw materials but have sufficient inventory to benefit from price increases in the short term [8][9]. Lithium Industry Challenges and Opportunities - **Supply Dependence**: The lithium industry faces challenges due to insufficient anti-involution logic, with China's lithium supply relying heavily on overseas sources. The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, with Australian lithium production capacity clearing slowly and South American salt lake production being released at a slow pace [10]. - **Price Trends**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen sharply from below 60,000 CNY to around 90,000 CNY but have since adjusted. Various factors, including high costs and production challenges in Australia and South America, are influencing these price movements [10]. - **Regional Developments**: In Sichuan, lithium project construction is slow, limiting supply growth in the near term. In Jiangxi, the market is affected by the recent suspension of production at a major lithium mine due to permit issues, which may disrupt supply and impact lithium prices [11][12]. Future Price Predictions - **Lithium Price Outlook**: Future lithium prices are expected to stabilize between 70,000 to 90,000 CNY, with 70,000 CNY seen as a potential bottom price. The market is unlikely to see prices drop significantly below this range due to the balance of supply and demand dynamics [16][17]. Recommended Stocks - **Investment Opportunities**: Key lithium stocks to watch include Zhongmin Resources, Yongxing Materials, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium. Zhongmin Resources, in particular, has undergone a detailed fundamental review and held a recent conference call for investors to gain insights [18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Last Week's Review**: Lithium prices opened significantly higher at the beginning of the week due to the expected expiration of the safety production license of a large lithium mine in Jiangxi. However, the high prices lacked policy and fundamental support, and bulls were conservative. Later in the week, a large salt factory announced复产, causing bulls to exit and prices to decline. Overall, lithium prices fluctuated greatly last week, driven by upstream events, and the fundamental logic did not apply [4]. - **Future Outlook**: As market sentiment cools, lithium prices may decline. High lithium prices have led to increased production and复产 by upstream lithium salt factories, and the weekly high - frequency supply is at a recent high. The supply disruption expectation may be gradually disproven. Technically, the sharp decline in lithium prices on Friday further confirms the cooling market sentiment. On the demand side, energy storage performance slightly exceeded expectations in August, while the power terminal weakened as expected. Policy continues to correct the market. Without new disturbances, lithium prices may decline [4][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Price Changes**: From August 15 to August 22, 2025, the prices of imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 5.92%, 10.43%, and 10.43% respectively. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 9.14%, while the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 4.90%. The prices of other related materials also had minor changes [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 22, 2025, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 106,055 tons, a decrease of 2,181 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreased by 591 tons, and exchange inventory increased by 1,505 tons [6][13]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last Week's Market Analysis** - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of August 22, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 24,990 tons, with a matching transaction price of 73,480 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 362,200 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 22, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 20,438 tons, an increase of 345 tons from the previous period. A large salt factory in Jiangxi announced复产, but the actual production in August was expected to be limited. High - frequency production was at a high level, and some smelters entered the market for high - level hedging. Supply intensity depends on price, and market sentiment cooling may not significantly reduce supply [8]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. Imports from Chile and Argentina decreased [9]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In July, the total import of lithium ore was about 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. Imports from Australia increased significantly, while imports from Zimbabwe decreased [10]. - **Demand Side** - **Positive Materials**: As of August 22, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased slightly, and their prices also rose. Energy storage orders in August improved, but the supply - driven force of the fundamentals for positive material prices was limited [11]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 502,000, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. However, the sales growth rate slowed down in the first and middle of August. The new - replacement subsidy policy needs further observation, and demand is expected to be stable but weak [12]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Market sentiment is cooling, and lithium prices may decline. High lithium prices have stimulated production and复产 by upstream factories, and supply has reached a high level. The supply disruption expectation may be disproven. Technically, market sentiment is cooling. On the demand side, energy storage is better, while the power terminal is weak. In the absence of new disturbances, lithium prices may decline [14]. Industry News - **Dazhong Mining**: The application for a mining license for a lithium mine in Hunan is in progress at the Ministry of Natural Resources [15]. - **Yichang Bangpu**: A 450,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate production capacity is about to be put into operation [15]. - **Jiangte Motor**: Yichun Yinli will resume production soon [15]. - **Chuanneng Power**: The Lijiagou lithium mine is in the production - ramping - up stage [15].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with lithium carbonate futures main contract closing at 87,540.0 yuan/ton, down 1.79% [1] - In the spot market, prices for various lithium-related materials increased, including a rise of 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan for electric carbon and 500 yuan for ternary materials [1] - Weekly lithium production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, while lithium mica production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment improved due to the upcoming expiration of a safety production license for a large mica mine in Jiangxi, leading to cautious upward movement in lithium prices [2] - The domestic demand for lithium is showing signs of recovery as downstream purchasing attitudes shift in response to the strong trend of lithium carbonate [1][2] - Short-term lithium prices may experience upward movement driven by market sentiment, but the extent of the increase is expected to be limited due to regulatory factors and local oversight [2]