Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration in the approval of virtual asset trading licenses for brokerages, suggesting a positive impact on sales momentum driven by adjustments in preset interest rates [5]. - The implementation of long-term performance evaluations for state-owned insurance companies is expected to guide long-term capital into the market, enhancing the stability and growth of insurance funds [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for insurance companies to shift from a trading-oriented approach to a more allocation-focused strategy, driven by new accounting standards and regulatory changes [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on July 11, 2025, to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, emphasizing the importance of long-term performance evaluations [5]. - The new evaluation framework includes a 70% weight on long-term performance metrics, reducing the impact of short-term market fluctuations [5]. - As of Q1 2025, the balance of funds utilized in the insurance industry was 37.84 trillion yuan, with equity asset allocation at only 20.1%, indicating room for growth in this area [5][7]. Regulatory Policies - A series of regulatory documents have been issued to promote long-term capital market participation, including guidelines for three-year performance evaluations for various funds [6]. - The adjustments in performance evaluation criteria aim to enhance the focus on long-term capital preservation and growth for state-owned insurance companies [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued attention to the life insurance sector's capacity improvement and the release of demand following increased awareness of insurance needs [5]. - It is recommended to focus on large listed insurance companies with strong competitive advantages, as the sector is currently undervalued [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 11, the capital market showed a complex situation. The capital side slightly tightened, the bond market was weakly volatile, the convertible bond market had mixed performance, and the yields of U.S. and European government bonds generally increased. There were also significant events in domestic and international policies, as well as price changes in commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned insurance companies to implement long - cycle assessment from 2025, adjusting ROE and capital preservation and appreciation rate to "annual + three - year + five - year" indicators [3]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Measures for the Suitability Management of Financial Institution Products", which will take effect on February 1, 2026 [4]. - The NAFMII launched a self - regulatory investigation into 6 lead underwriters [4]. - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs raised a total of 289.88 billion yuan and will be listed on July 17. Fund companies are preparing for the second batch [5]. - **International News** - Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [6]. - **Commodities** - On July 11, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and natural gas prices continued to rise. WTI August crude oil futures rose 2.8%, Brent September crude oil futures rose 2.5%, COMEX gold futures rose 1.41%, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.24% [7]. 3.2 Capital Side - **Open Market Operations** - On July 11, the central bank conducted 847 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 507 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On July 11, the capital side slightly tightened. DR001 rose 2.00bp to 1.343%, and DR007 fell 2.27bp to 1.472% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 11, the bond market was weakly volatile. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.65bp to 1.6660%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 0.50bp to 1.7430% [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of 25 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 12 (re - issuance) and 25 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 10 (second re - issuance) is provided [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities**: On July 11, the transaction prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "19 Baolong MTN002" fell more than 67%, "H0 Baolong 04" rose more than 122%, and "H1 Bidi 02" rose more than 192% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies such as Gome Electric Appliance, Orient Fashion, and Jiaoda Angli announced significant events including new enforcement information, pre - reorganization, and being investigated by the CSRC [16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 11, the three major A - share indexes rose. The convertible bond market was divided, with the CSI Convertible Bond and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indexes rising 0.03% and 0.20% respectively, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond index falling 0.08% [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Information on the listing, conversion price adjustment, and early redemption of multiple convertible bonds is provided [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 11, the yields of U.S. bonds across all maturities generally increased, and the yield spreads of some maturities widened. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury bond (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose 3bp to 2.37% [20][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 11, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally increased [23]. - **Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of July 11 are presented, including the price changes of bonds of companies such as Ideal Auto and CNOOC [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [1][8]. Core Insights - The recent adjustment in the evaluation method for insurance funds' net asset return and capital preservation rate emphasizes long-term performance, with a weight distribution of 30% for the current year, 50% for a three-year cycle, and 20% for a five-year cycle, effective from 2025 [3][5]. - The report highlights that the allocation of insurance capital to equity assets needs to be increased, as the current investment in A-shares is only about 11% of the total insurance fund utilization balance of approximately 33 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, which is significantly below the 25% policy cap [4][5]. - The shift towards long-term assessments is expected to encourage insurance companies to increase their equity investments, aligning with their long-term, stable investment characteristics and improving their investment strategies [5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance's new guidelines aim to guide insurance funds towards long-term, stable investments, addressing the current short-term focus that has hindered the sector's growth [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the lack of mid-to-long-term funds is a significant constraint on the healthy development of the capital market, and the adjustment in evaluation metrics is a step towards alleviating this issue [4][5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on stable companies such as China Pacific Insurance (601601), Ping An Insurance (601318), and New China Life Insurance (601336) as potential investment opportunities due to their robust operational performance and asset flexibility [6].

文字早评 2025/07/14 星期一 宏观金融类 4、英伟达：英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋将于 7 月 16 日在北京召开新闻发布会。 5、财政部近日印发《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通知》 提出：国有险企今年起全面落地三年以上长周期考核，增加五年周期指标。引导其更好发挥长期机构投 资者的作用。 6、近日，中国移动采购与招标网显示，智元和宇树中标机器人大单。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.37%/-0.53%/-1.23%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.89%/-1.77%/-3.87%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.13%/-1.12%/-2.19%/-5.03%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.08%/-0.21%/-0.19%/-0.15%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。近期防内卷及稳定币等题材带动市场风偏提升，相关权重带动股指出现反弹。 策略上，关注市场风格转换的机会，建议逢低做多 IF 股指期货。 股指 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has issued a notice to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, emphasizing a three-year long-cycle assessment mechanism with increased weight on net asset return and capital preservation metrics [1] - The long-cycle assessment aims to reduce anxiety over short-term performance fluctuations, encouraging insurance funds to focus on long-term investments, which historically yield higher returns [2] - The recent surge in insurance capital's stake acquisitions, nearly 40 instances, reflects a response to regulatory calls for insurance capital to act as patient capital and a stabilizing force in the market [3] Group 2 - The current low interest rate environment is driving insurance companies to seek high-dividend stocks as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with interest rate and fee losses [3] - The shift towards long-term investment strategies is indicative of a broader market and policy transformation, influenced by factors such as low interest rates and the need to boost capital markets [4] - The global landscape is undergoing significant changes, necessitating a supportive environment for long-term investments to counteract rising uncertainties and market volatility [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance issued a notification to guide insurance funds towards long-term and stable investments, enhancing the long-cycle assessment of state-owned commercial insurance companies, effective immediately and applicable for the 2025 performance evaluation [1] Group 1: Long-term Investment Strategy - The notification encourages insurance funds to act as a stabilizing force in the market, promoting long-term capital and patient capital strategies [1][3] - It aims to increase the tolerance of insurance companies towards short-term market fluctuations, thereby enhancing their equity and long-term investment capabilities [1][2] Group 2: Performance Evaluation Adjustments - The performance evaluation metrics for state-owned insurance companies have been revised to include a combination of annual, 3-year, and 5-year indicators, with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [2] - This adjustment is expected to significantly reduce the impact of short-term market volatility on the performance evaluations of state-owned insurance companies [2][4] Group 3: Asset-Liability Management - The notification emphasizes the need for improved asset-liability management among insurance companies, advocating for stable, long-term, and value-based investment approaches [5] - Companies are encouraged to align their investment strategies with their liabilities, thereby increasing the supply of medium- and long-term funds in the capital market [4][5] Group 4: Regulatory Context - The notification is part of a broader regulatory trend aimed at promoting medium- and long-term capital market participation, following several initiatives earlier in the year [6] - Recent regulatory changes have included raising the investment cap for equity assets and reducing risk factors for stock investments, indicating a supportive environment for long-term investments [6]

进一步拉长周期考核，显然能够让险资这样的长期资本真正成为更耐心的资本。 随着考核周期的再次拉长，近35万亿元保险资金迎来了更贴合其"长钱"属性的考核指挥棒。在这一政策 导向下，险资投资又将走向哪里？ "进一步拉长周期考核，显然能够让我们这样的长期资本真正成为更耐心的资本，这种耐心也表现在能 够更为坚定和持久地贯彻我们的中长期投资战略战术。"一名保险资管负责人对第一财经表示。 业内人士分析称，拉长考核周期无疑有助于险资长钱长投，进一步增加权益投资的配置。而在新会计准 则的施行叠加低利率环境下的"资产荒"背景，险资在权益投资方面预计将提升FVOCI策略（即将更多权 益资产分入"以公允价值计量且变动计入其他综合收益"类资产中），银行股等高股息红利板块是实践这 一策略的重要载体。此外，长周期考核也将强化险资对科技、先进制造等新兴产业的配置能力。 FVOCI策略将提升 7月11日，财政部发布的《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的 通知》（下称《通知》），将国有商业保险公司净资产收益率（ROE）和资本保值增值率的考核进一步 拉长至"当年度指标+三年周期指标+五年周期指标"，这较两年前净资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has announced a new regulation to enhance the long-term assessment of state-owned commercial insurance companies, increasing the weight of three and five-year assessments to 70%, effective from the 2025 performance evaluation [2][3]. Group 1: Long-term Assessment Mechanism - The new long-term assessment scheme adjusts the weight of net asset return rates to 30% for the current year, 50% for three years, and 20% for five years [3]. - The capital preservation and appreciation rate for state-owned insurance companies will also follow a similar adjustment in weight distribution [3]. - The regulation aims to improve asset-liability management and enhance the matching of investment returns and risks [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Market and Investment - The establishment of a long-term assessment mechanism is expected to smooth out the impact of short-term market fluctuations on performance, encouraging long-term capital investment in the market [2][4]. - Insurance funds, which currently have about 33 trillion yuan in investment balance, have significant room to increase their equity investment from the current 11% towards the 25% policy cap [5]. - The new policy is projected to bring substantial incremental funds into the market, with estimates suggesting that a 1% increase in equity allocation could lead to over 300 billion yuan in additional market funds [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Experts believe that the long-term assessment will help insurance companies focus on value and stable investments, thereby increasing their equity investment ratio [4][6]. - The policy is seen as a critical step in addressing the barriers to long-term capital entering the market, allowing for a more stable investment environment [4][5]. - The anticipated recovery in economic expectations and market confidence is expected to sustain the performance of insurance stocks, benefiting from the influx of long-term capital [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance recently, with all sub-sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index in the last five trading days [9] - The report highlights the significant increase in trading volume in the securities sector, with a year-on-year increase of 120% in daily average stock trading volume as of July 11, 2025 [15] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from long-term capital advantages due to new assessment criteria for state-owned insurance companies [23] - The multi-financial sector is entering a stable transition period, with trust assets continuing to grow but profits declining significantly [31] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the last five trading days (July 7-11, 2025), the multi-financial sector rose by 11.89%, the securities sector by 4.58%, and the insurance sector by 1.72%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 3.94% compared to a 0.82% rise in the CSI 300 index [9][11] 2. Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Insights 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with a daily average stock trading amount of CNY 16,688 billion, up 120% year-on-year as of July 11, 2025 [15] - The China Securities Association has implemented measures to strengthen self-regulation and promote high-quality development in the securities industry [19] 2.2 Insurance - New long-term assessment criteria for state-owned insurance companies have been introduced, focusing on net asset return and capital preservation over a five-year period [23] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.62-0.95 times the 2025E P/EV, which is considered historically low, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [28] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach CNY 29.56 trillion in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 23.58%, but profits dropped significantly by 45.5% [31] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 740 million contracts in June 2025, with a transaction value of CNY 52.79 trillion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 28.91% and 17.40%, respectively [34] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the insurance sector highest, followed by securities and other multi-financial sectors, recommending companies such as China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Tonghuashun [44]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has adjusted the trading halt arrangements, indicating a significant long-term positive impact on the A-share market, especially regarding quantitative trading regulations [1] - The A-share market has shown a clear upward trend, with the index rising from 3040 points to 3510 points in just three months, an increase of nearly 500 points, exceeding many expectations [1] - The securities sector has played a crucial role in the recent market rally, and there is still potential for further growth in this sector next week [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance is enhancing long-term assessments for insurance companies, addressing the short-term focus previously seen in the A-share market, which often led to market volatility [3] - The upcoming opportunities in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) are significant, as it has lagged in performance and now has strong demand for a rebound [3] - The long-term assessment aligns well with the cyclical nature of the domestic technology industry, which typically operates on a 3 to 5-year cycle [3] Group 3 - A majority of market participants (over 70%) do not believe that the index has peaked, indicating growing optimism about the ongoing bull market [5] - The current market phase is characterized by skepticism, suggesting that the bull market is still in its growth stage [5] Group 4 - The index has reached around 3550 points, with expectations that it could target the 3600-point mark soon, despite some market manipulation observed [6] - While the index has risen, many investors are experiencing a disconnect, as the gains are primarily driven by the financial sector, particularly banks, leaving many retail investors behind [6] Group 5 - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% [7]