Economic Outlook - The overall tone of the Central Economic Work Conference indicates a return to normalcy, with no extraordinary stimulus expected in the baseline scenario[3] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at around 5% or slightly below, requiring an average annual growth of 4.17% over the next decade to achieve the goal of reaching the GDP per capita of moderately developed countries by 2035[3] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on "flexibility and efficiency"[3] - It is anticipated that there will be 1-2 instances of both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on structural monetary policy tools[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with an emphasis on "optimizing expenditure structure" and maintaining a deficit rate around 4% for 2026[4] - The scale of special government bonds is expected to be less than the previous year's 1.8 trillion yuan, shifting focus from scale to structural optimization[4] Domestic Demand Policy - The policy emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver," with a combination of measures to optimize supply and stimulate consumption[4] - The expected scale of subsidies for replacing old products in 2026 is projected to remain at 300 billion yuan, the same as in 2025[4] Technology and Innovation - There is a strong emphasis on cultivating new growth drivers and expanding artificial intelligence initiatives, highlighting the urgency of technological innovation[8] - The government aims to establish a matching talent system, industrial chain, institutional framework, and financial system to support high-quality development actions in key industries[8] Risk Management - The risks associated with real estate and local government debt are considered controllable, with a shift in focus from risk prevention to other priorities in the current year's agenda[8] - The emphasis on risk management has been downgraded from fifth to eighth in priority, indicating improved control over these sectors[8] Asset Strategy - The focus on A-share market performance is driven by earnings recovery, with a correlation between A-share trends and fundamental economic conditions expected to increase in 2026[9] - If the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive in the second half of 2026, it could support a recovery in earnings and a potential upward trend in A-shares[9] Overall Economic Strategy - The strategy includes a focus on high-quality development, optimizing existing resources, and enhancing the quality of growth rather than merely expanding quantity[3] - The government aims to balance domestic economic work with international trade dynamics, ensuring stability in employment, prices, and overall economic growth[19]

改革攻坚方面，此次会议就改革攻坚重点展开了四个方面的内容：其一仍然是统一大市场建设，并再次 强调了深入整治"内卷式"竞争，同时明确要"规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策"，从根源治理新兴产业"内 卷式"竞争问题。其二是激发各类经营主体活力，针对国有企业，我们认为重心或仍在国有经济布局优 化和结构调整，切实发挥国有企业科技创新、产业控制和安全支撑作用；针对民营企业，一方面放宽准 入，支持民企参与"两重"、"两新"，另一方面着力解决拖欠民企账款，持续优化民营企业发展环境。其 三是税制改革，会议再提"健全地方税体系"，指向地方财政困难的现实问题，预计后续将推进消费税征 收环节后移并稳步下划地方，同时研究把城市维护建设税、教育费附加、地方教育附加合并为地方附加 税等。其四是与金融相关的改革措施，一方面，深入推进中小金融机构减量提质，继续做好中小银行的 合并重组，推进中小金融机构风险处置和转型发展；另一方面，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革，推 动资本市场为科技创新、产业升级注入金融活水。 民生方面，本次会议围绕就业、教育、医疗、社会保障等关键民生问题提出一揽子解决新方案。就业上 新增"鼓励支持灵活就业人员、新就业形态人员参加职 ...

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of "high-quality development" over "steady progress," indicating a shift in priorities for 2026[4] - The growth target for 2026 is likely set around "around 5%," with internal control targets between 4.8% and 5.0%[5] Policy Focus - Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority, with a balanced emphasis on both consumption and investment[5] - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels, with a projected deficit rate of 4.0% for 2026 and an increase in special government bonds to approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[9][8] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will adopt a "moderately loose" stance, with flexibility in implementing rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[11] - Expected interest rate cuts in 2026 are projected to be in the range of 10-20 basis points, with a reserve requirement ratio reduction of 50 basis points[11] Structural Reforms - The conference highlighted the need to address "involution" in competition, with plans to establish a unified national market and regulate tax incentives and subsidies[4][15] - Emphasis on innovation and technology, including the establishment of three major international innovation centers and a focus on service industry enhancements[15] Risk Management - The priority for risk management has shifted, with a decreased focus on the real estate sector, indicating a more stable approach to market stabilization[22] - Local government debt management remains a high priority, reflecting ongoing concerns about financial stability[22]

Group 1: Capital Market Development - The capital market will support high-quality development and technological innovation through a multi-layered, inclusive, and resilient market structure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period[3] - A fair and robust regulatory system will help broaden channels for residents' property income, promoting domestic demand and consumption[3] - Enhancing the quality of listed companies is essential for stabilizing the macroeconomic foundation and boosting confidence in economic development[5] Group 2: Economic Impact and Consumer Behavior - The decline in net income growth for residents since 2022 has negatively impacted consumer willingness, influenced by the downturn in the real estate market and capital market volatility[4] - Expanding channels for residents' property income is crucial for effective income growth and stimulating consumption, which is a key direction for the capital market[4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a more equitable and effective regulatory system to ensure reasonable and stable returns for investors[17] Group 3: Risk Management - The complex external environment and internal pressures from the real estate cycle necessitate effective risk prevention and resolution in the capital market[6] - Emphasis on risk prevention and addressing major risk hazards is critical for maintaining a stable and healthy capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period[22] - Historical financial crises highlight the importance of being prepared for potential risks in a highly market-oriented capital market[22]

Core Insights - The total issuance of local government bonds in China for 2025 has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, marking the first time this annual scale has crossed the 10 trillion yuan threshold [1][3] - The increase in local bond issuance is seen as a necessary measure for stabilizing growth and managing long-term debt risks, emphasizing the need to balance growth and risk prevention [1][3] Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - As of December 2, 2025, the net financing amount of local government bonds is approximately 7.1 trillion yuan, with total issuance around 10.1 trillion yuan, including 2.55 trillion yuan in general bonds and 7.56 trillion yuan in special bonds [1] - The issuance scale for local government bonds has been notably high in 2025, with approximately 2.8 trillion yuan, 2.6 trillion yuan, and 3 trillion yuan issued in the first three quarters respectively [1] Group 2: Special Bonds and Project Financing - The issuance of new special bonds is accelerating, which is expected to facilitate the advancement of major local projects and increase tangible work output [3] - The planned issuance of local government bonds for December 2025 totals 1.05 billion yuan, with 213 million yuan allocated for new special bonds, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [3] - The new special bond issuance is expected to reach a record high, taking into account the "negative list" management of fund allocation and the saturation of traditional infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Future Projections - For 2026, the limit for new local government special bonds is anticipated to reach 5 trillion yuan, with specific allocations for debt repayment, land acquisition, and project construction [4] - The special bond quota for debt repayment is projected at 1.6 trillion yuan, while the quota for project construction is expected to increase by 1 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [4]

Report Title Localized Debt Resolution Series IV: Usage Characteristics and Outlook of New Local Bond Quotas in 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Report Core View - The risk prevention function of new local bonds is strengthening, weakening the negative impact of government bond supply on the bond market. This is reflected in the highest proportion of new local bond quotas allocated to self - reviewed and self - issued provinces, slower issuance progress of new local bonds, and a significant decline in the proportion of project construction bonds [2]. - In 2025, the government may not advance the use of the 2026 hidden debt replacement quota. The net financing of local bonds in November and December may be roughly equal. In 2026, fiscal policy may emphasize sustainability, leading to a stable decline in government debt increments, with a more significant decline in local debt increments. The issuance of new local bonds may accelerate compared to 2025, potentially increasing government bond supply in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory PART1: 2025 New Local Bond Regional Allocation and Issuance Progress 1.1 Limit Allocation - In the past two years, more new local bond quotas have been allocated to self - reviewed and self - issued provinces, reducing the impact of government bond supply on the bond market. The decline in the supply of new bonds in key provinces reduces the supply of high - coupon assets [9]. - The average growth rate of new local bond quotas in self - reviewed and self - issued provinces in the past two years has exceeded the national average. Key provinces have seen a restorative increase in quotas this year, but their average growth rate in the past two years remains negative. Ten provinces have experienced negative growth in new local bond quotas in the past two years, mostly key provinces [12]. 1.2 Issuance Progress - This year, the issuance of new local bonds has been slow, while the issuance of special refinancing bonds has been fast, aiming to strengthen risk prevention. The slow issuance of new local bonds may be due to staggered issuance with national bonds and special refinancing bonds, and a decrease in the pressure to stabilize growth [13]. - The issuance of non - project construction new local bonds has been fast, while that of project construction new local bonds has been slow, also strengthening the risk prevention function of new bonds [19]. - This year, the issuance progress of new local bonds in self - reviewed and self - issued provinces has been faster than that in other provinces and has accelerated compared to 2024. The issuance speed of new local bonds in key and other provinces has decreased compared to 2024, possibly due to an increase in their risk prevention tasks [22]. PART2: 2025 New Features of New Local Bond Usage 2.1 Two Major Categories - This year, many provinces have divided new special bonds into three uses, corresponding to two major categories: non - project construction (including supplementing fund financial resources and clearing arrears) and project construction. The proportions of these three uses are 24.6%, 16.7%, and 58.7% respectively. The proportion of project construction limits in key provinces is significantly lower [28]. - From January to October this year, the proportion of project construction bonds in the issuance of new local bonds was only 73%, a continuous decline for three years, indicating a weakening of the growth - stabilizing function of new local bonds. The proportion of project construction bonds in key provinces is the lowest, and the proportions in all three types of provinces are on a downward trend [33]. - The new or restarted sub - uses of project construction bonds this year are mainly land reserves, indicating a decline in the growth - stabilizing function of project construction special bonds. Non - project construction bonds have a new use of solving government arrears to enterprises [35]. 2.2.1 Project Construction Category - Compared with the whole year of 2024, the proportion of land reserves in project construction special bonds in the first 10 months of this year has increased by 14 percentage points, the proportion of infrastructure has decreased by 15 percentage points, the proportion of affordable housing has remained stable, government investment funds have emerged from scratch, and the proportion of new infrastructure has increased slightly [39]. 2.2.2 Project Construction Category - The restart of land reserve bonds in 2025 was originally intended to recover existing land, but in reality, they are mostly used for new land reserves. As of October 22, only 33% of the special bonds issued this year for land reserves were used for existing land reserves [43][47]. - Self - reviewed and self - issued provinces are the main issuers of land reserve bonds this year. Non - pilot provinces started issuing land reserve bonds in October, possibly due to the impact of central government approval speed [43]. 2.2.3 Project Construction Category - The scale of special bonds used for the acquisition of existing housing in 2025 is only 101 billion yuan. The scale of special bonds for the acquisition of existing housing and land is low, and they mostly target local state - owned enterprises, so their effect on reducing inventory and protecting real estate enterprises is weak [48]. 2.2.4 Project Construction Category - Using special bonds for government investment funds is beneficial for supporting science and technology innovation. This year, the scale of such special bonds may be about 125 billion yuan. Their impact on the bond market is limited [52][57]. 2.3.1 Non - Project Construction Category - The uses of debt - repayment new special bonds have expanded this year, and the scale has increased. "Solving government arrears to enterprises" and "supplementing government fund financial resources" are essentially debt - repayment, but the types of debts repaid are different [58]. - It is estimated that 567.9 billion yuan of arrears - clearing special bonds will be issued this year. From 2026 to 2028, 1367.9 billion, 1083.9 billion, and 800 billion yuan of new special bonds may be used for debt - repayment respectively [64]. 2.3.2 Non - Project Construction Category - Only 26 billion yuan of special bonds for capital replenishment of small and medium - sized banks were issued in the first 10 months of this year, and there is still a remaining quota of 20 billion yuan. Such bonds may be issued again by the end of this year [65]. PART3: In - Year and 2026 Outlook 3.1 In - Year Outlook - The progress of using the remaining quota is slow, so it is unlikely that the government will advance the use of the 2026 hidden debt replacement quota this year. Considering the remaining quota, the net financing of local bonds in November and December may be roughly equal, about 516.4 billion and 516.7 billion yuan respectively [75]. 3.2 2026 Outlook - The first year of the Five - Year Plan does not necessarily correspond to fiscal stimulus. It mainly depends on the pressure to stabilize growth. From a historical perspective, the first year of the Five - Year Plan does not always see fiscal stimulus [76]. - In 2026, fiscal policy may emphasize sustainability, leading to a stable decline in government debt increments. The proportion of local debt in incremental government debt may decline [84]. - The government debt increment in 2026 may be 14 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.3 trillion yuan compared to 2025. The local debt increment may be 7.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [87]. - The issuance of new local bonds in 2026 may accelerate compared to this year, and the issuance of debt - repayment new bonds may be more front - loaded, potentially increasing government bond supply in the first quarter of 2026 [88]. - The proportion of new local bonds used for project construction in 2026 may decline slightly compared to 2025, weakening the growth - stabilizing function. The scale of project construction special bonds used for new infrastructure and government investment funds may increase, but their impact on economic growth may be limited [94].

Core Viewpoint - The training program for chief risk officers of futures companies emphasizes the importance of risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the futures market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Focus - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is committed to penetrating regulation to ensure early detection of abnormal trading behaviors, thereby maintaining market stability [1]. - ZCE has conducted annual on-site inspections for 19 members and special checks for 22 members regarding fee reductions, while also enhancing the responsibility of members for auditing internet platform content [1]. - From January to October this year, ZCE completed 316 on-site warehouse inspections with the support of member units [1]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - The chief risk officers are encouraged to shift from passive responses to proactive frameworks, transforming compliance from a cost burden to a value-creating process [2]. - Key areas of focus for risk management include internal control mechanisms, handling customer complaints, and preventing abnormal trading by clients [2][3]. - A comprehensive risk management system covering all operational aspects is essential for the development of futures companies [2]. Group 3: Training Outcomes - The training provided a platform for chief risk officers to exchange ideas and establish consensus on risk prevention and compliance management [3][4]. - Participants agreed that under stringent regulatory conditions, futures companies must accelerate their transformation to ensure sustainable high-quality development [4]. - The training not only served as a policy interpretation and business learning opportunity but also aimed to reconstruct ideas and mobilize actions for chief risk officers [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hebei Securities Regulatory Bureau emphasizes the importance of strong regulation, risk prevention, and promoting high-quality development in building a resilient capital market tailored to the needs of Hebei and Xiong'an New Area [1] Regulatory Approach - The bureau adheres to a strict regulatory philosophy, enhancing the effectiveness and deterrence of on-site supervision to combat various illegal activities [1] - It implements a proactive risk prevention strategy focusing on early identification, warning, exposure, and resolution, particularly in key areas to maintain systemic financial stability [1] Support for Development - The bureau prioritizes serving the Xiong'an New Area by organizing meetings for newly guided enterprises, clarifying regulatory requirements, and addressing capital market concerns [1] - It conducts specialized activities to empower industrial clusters in Hebei, providing professional services for companies seeking to go public [1] - The bureau encourages enterprises to expand direct financing channels through IPOs, refinancing, and bond issuance, while guiding capital elements towards Xiong'an New Area to foster a virtuous cycle of capital and industry development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's decision to resume the trading of government bonds signals a commitment to balancing economic growth and risk management, with expectations for more flexible operations compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Response - The bond market sentiment has notably improved, with long-term interest rates showing signs of technical stabilization [2][8]. - Institutions believe that the current expectations for a loose monetary policy are yet to be validated, and the medium to long-term trajectory of bond yields will depend on the evolution of fundamentals and policy coordination [2][3]. Group 2: Operational Flexibility - The central bank's approach to bond trading is expected to be more flexible in terms of pace, scale, and maturity structure, reflecting a nuanced policy response to market conditions [3][4]. - The anticipated operations may involve targeted liquidity injections by purchasing government bonds from major banks, aiming to maintain market stability while avoiding excessive volatility [3][5]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy - The resumption of bond trading is viewed as a long-term tool for optimizing the central bank's asset structure, increasing the proportion of "internal assets" on its balance sheet [5][6]. - This strategy aims to reduce reliance on external asset fluctuations and improve operational efficiency by gradually extending the maturity of bond purchases [5][6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context - The decision to restart bond trading is seen as a response to current liquidity fluctuations and a proactive measure to create policy space for the future [6][7]. - The central bank's actions are expected to help stabilize market sentiment and smooth out seasonal funding fluctuations, while also serving as a regular policy tool alongside other measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts [6][7]. Group 5: Market Expectations - The market has reacted positively to the policy signals, with a restoration of investor confidence and a potential stabilization of long-term interest rates [8][9]. - However, there are differing opinions on whether this operation will lead to a sustained bullish trend in the bond market, with some institutions cautioning against overestimating its long-term impact [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizes the importance of high-quality financial development and risk prevention during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to contribute significantly to the modernization of socialism in China [1] Group 1: Financial Development Goals - The Financial Regulatory Administration aims to enhance economic and financial adaptability to promote sustainable and healthy economic development [1] - There is a commitment to deepen reforms and expand openness in the financial sector to boost development momentum and vitality [2] - A new financial service model will be established, focusing on the synergy between direct and indirect financing, and balancing investments in goods and people [1][2] Group 2: Support for Industries - Financial resources will be directed towards optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries, with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [2] - Policies will be improved to support long-term capital investment in hard technology, ensuring comprehensive financial support throughout the innovation cycle [2] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Management - The Financial Regulatory Administration will prioritize risk prevention, aiming to maintain a solid bottom line against systemic financial risks [2][3] - Efforts will be made to enhance financial regulatory efficiency and establish a clear, effective regulatory framework [3] - There will be a focus on improving the financing system to address local government debt risks and enhance the overall stability of the financial system [3]