证券研究报告 房地产 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 楼市迎复苏新章，价值沐重估春风 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——香港楼市跟踪专题报告 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 年初至今中国香港（以下简称"香港"）楼市回暖趋势延续。1）成交规模稳步回升： 2025 年 1-9 月，香港一手/二手私人住宅成交量分别同比+25%/+19%，成交量分别 创 2020/2022 年以来的同期新高。2）房价出现企稳信号：9 月，香港私人住宅售价 指数同比+1.81%，房价同比结束了连续 43 个月的下跌。同时，中原城市领先指数 在 10 月继续上行，显示量价复苏趋势仍在延续。3）库存去化压力边际改善：截至 2025 年 Q2 末，一手私人住宅已完工未售及在建库存较 2024Q3 末的历史峰值下降 7%，对应 MA12 个月的销售去化周期为 65.3 个月， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a resurgence after years of adjustment, with new property sales showing strong demand and rapid sales [1][2] Group 1: Market Activity - Numerous new property projects in Hong Kong are witnessing explosive sales, with some projects selling out on the same day they are launched [1] - For instance, the second round of sales for the Hong Kong Kai Tak project by Sun Hung Kai Properties sold all 56 units on November 19, receiving approximately 2,176 subscription registrations, resulting in an oversubscription rate of 37 times [1] - The Yau Tong Pak King Fung project is set to launch its first round of sales, with subscription numbers exceeding 18 times the available units as of the evening of November 17 [1] - In October, the number of transactions for new homes in Hong Kong surpassed 1,700, marking the ninth consecutive month of sales exceeding 1,000, matching the longest record from March to November 2019 [1] Group 2: Buyer Behavior - Local buyers in Hong Kong are increasingly shifting from renting to buying due to rising rental prices and decreasing bank deposit interest rates, prompting them to invest in properties [2] - Mainland clients continue to be attracted to Hong Kong real estate for its rental yield, with one buyer reporting a rental return of approximately 3.8%, significantly higher than similar-priced properties in Shenzhen [2] - The overall atmosphere in the Hong Kong real estate market is improving, leading banks to become more proactive in increasing mortgage loans [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Major international banks, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, predict that the Hong Kong real estate market will recover and enter an upward cycle after hitting a low point in 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a resurgence after a four-year adjustment period, with significant sales activity and a return of foreign buyers [1][2][3] - Recent government policies, including tax reductions and mortgage rate adjustments, have stimulated demand and improved buyer confidence [5][6][7] - The rental market is also showing strong performance, with rising rental yields attracting investors [10][11] Market Performance - In October, over 1,700 new property transactions were recorded, marking the ninth consecutive month of sales exceeding 1,000 units, matching the longest streak since 2019 [1] - High-value transactions have surged, with at least 64 sales exceeding 50 million HKD in October alone, totaling over 6.8 billion HKD [1] - The new property market has seen a total of 15,900 transactions by the end of October, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [3] Buyer Behavior - There is a notable trend of large buyers purchasing entire floors or multiple units, indicating strong demand from professional buyers [2][3] - The influx of mainland buyers is significant, with projections suggesting over 12,000 transactions from this group for the year, setting a new record [3] Government Policies - The Hong Kong government has implemented measures to reduce property transaction taxes, significantly lowering costs for local and mainland buyers [5][7] - Recent policy changes have also included adjustments to mortgage limits and investment immigration policies, further stimulating the market [6] Rental Market Dynamics - The rental yield in Hong Kong has stabilized around 4%, making property investment more attractive compared to traditional savings [10][11] - The rental market is experiencing increased demand due to a rise in non-local students and skilled professionals, pushing rental prices higher [9][10] Future Outlook - Analysts from major financial institutions predict a continued recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market, with expectations of a sustained upward trend in property prices post-2025 [1][11] - The combination of suppressed demand being released, favorable mortgage conditions, and rising rents is expected to support the market's recovery [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is gradually recovering, with rental prices increasing despite a slight recent dip in October [2][6]. Rental Market Analysis - The average rent for private residential properties in Hong Kong was approximately 38.71 HKD per square foot in October, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of about 0.18% after eight months of continuous growth [2]. - Year-to-date, Hong Kong rental prices have increased by 2.76%, surpassing the previous record high of 38.33 HKD per square foot in July 2019 [2]. - Analysts predict that due to rising local housing demand and government initiatives to attract talent, rental prices are expected to remain high in the short term and may continue to rise next year [2]. Housing Price Trends - Recent data from Centaline Property indicates that the price of second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong has continued to rebound, with the CCL index rising by 1% week-on-week to 141.72, marking two consecutive weeks of increase [6]. - Morgan Stanley reports that since March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded over 4%, with an expected further increase of about 5% by the end of 2026 [6]. - Factors contributing to the recovery include resilient stock market performance, release of pent-up demand, banks raising property valuations, declining listings in the secondary market, potential interest rate decreases, rising rents, stable interest from mainland buyers, and recovery in the financial sector [6]. Commuting Trends - Many individuals, referred to as "Shenzhen-Hong Kong commuters," are opting to live in Shenzhen due to high rental costs in Hong Kong, with some reporting significant savings despite commuting expenses [5][7]. - The choice to commute is influenced by the changing real estate landscape in both cities, with some buyers accelerating their market entry decisions due to relaxed housing policies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a significant recovery after three years of decline, driven by pent-up demand from both local and mainland buyers, as well as supportive government policies and favorable macroeconomic conditions [4][11][21]. Market Recovery - The recovery in the Hong Kong property market has been evident since early this year, with the number of transactions for new residential properties exceeding 1,000 for eight consecutive months from February to September, the longest streak since 2019 [4][9]. - In October, the market is expected to maintain this momentum, with new residential transactions projected to exceed 2,000 [4]. - The secondary housing market is also showing signs of recovery, with expectations of over 4,000 transactions in October [4][9]. Price Trends - The private residential price index has risen for five consecutive months as of August, indicating a recovery from a prolonged downturn [4][9]. - Rental prices have increased for nine months straight, reaching a six-year high, with average rents for units under 40 square meters in various districts showing strong upward trends [7][8]. Buyer Demographics - The proportion of mainland buyers in the Hong Kong secondary residential market has been steadily increasing, nearing 20% over the past five years, particularly in the luxury segment [12]. - Many mainland buyers are attracted by Hong Kong's talent and investment policies, which aim to draw professionals and high-net-worth individuals [12][15]. Government Policies - The Hong Kong government has implemented various talent input programs, receiving over 190,000 applications since last year, with nearly 140,000 approved, contributing to the demand for housing [14]. - Recent government initiatives, including adjustments to investment immigration thresholds and educational policy changes, are expected to provide additional support to the real estate market [21]. Macroeconomic Factors - The linkage of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar means that local interest rates are closely tied to US Federal Reserve policies. Recent rate cuts by the Fed have led to lower mortgage rates in Hong Kong, enhancing buyer confidence [17]. - The anticipated continuation of a low-interest-rate environment is expected to further stimulate demand in the housing market [17]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is positive, with significant interest from buyers, particularly in prime locations, and a notable increase in the number of applications for new developments [19][21]. - The competitive nature of the market is highlighted by high subscription rates for new property launches, indicating strong demand [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong private residential market experienced a seasonal adjustment in August, with transaction volumes declining month-on-month, but showing significant year-on-year growth, indicating an improving market sentiment [1][2]. - Property prices have shown signs of stabilization, with a continuous increase for five months, reflecting a gradual recovery in the market [3]. - The report anticipates that the market will continue to improve due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are expected to lower local interest rates in Hong Kong, alleviating mortgage pressures and stimulating demand for property transactions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In August, the number of new residential transactions was 1,775, down 5% month-on-month, while the total transactions from January to August reached 12,924, up 13.4% year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2020 [2]. - The secondary market saw 3,131 transactions, a 10% decrease month-on-month, but maintained above 3,000 transactions for five consecutive months, with a year-to-date increase of 14.9% [2]. Price Trends - The Hong Kong private residential price index reached 288.5 in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14%, marking a cumulative increase of 4.62% over five months [3]. - Rental prices have also risen, with the rental index increasing by 1.85% year-on-year and 1.12% month-on-month, reaching the highest level since August 2019 [3]. Interest Rates and Mortgage Market - The one-month HIBOR average rose to 3.29% in September, up 0.25 percentage points month-on-month, continuing a three-month upward trend [4]. - The rental yield for Class A private residential properties in Hong Kong remained at 3.7%, exceeding the mortgage cap rate of 3.5%, indicating a persistent "renting over buying" phenomenon [4]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies with substantial land reserves and quality commercial assets, specifically: - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 HKD and a "Buy" rating [9][22]. - Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) with a target price of 111.51 HKD and a "Buy" rating [9][23]. - MTR Corporation (66 HK) with a target price of 29.90 HKD and an "Overweight" rating [9][25].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that the Hong Kong property market has begun to recover, predicting a rebound in residential property prices from 2027 to the second half of 2026, with an expected increase of approximately 3% and a further 5% rise in 2027 [1] Summary by Category Market Outlook - The forecast for residential property price rebound has been advanced to the second half of 2026 from 2027, with an anticipated increase of about 3% in 2026 and an additional 5% in 2027 [1] - The recovery in property prices is expected to lead to a resurgence in profitability and dividends for local property developers by 2027 [1] Company Ratings and Target Prices - Average target prices for local property stocks have been raised by 3%, with earnings forecasts adjusted upwards by up to 4% from this year to 2027 [1] - Longfor Group (01113) and Sino Land (00083) are favored among developers, with Longfor's rating upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy" and target price increased from HKD 39 to HKD 42 [1] - Sino Land is also given a "Buy" rating, with its target price raised from HKD 9.8 to HKD 10.8 [1] Rental Stocks - The report expresses a positive outlook on Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), both receiving "Buy" ratings, with target prices adjusted to HKD 10 and HKD 24.5 respectively [1] - The rating for MTR Corporation (00066) is maintained at "Underperform" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's real estate market is beginning to recover, prompting a revision of residential price rebound forecasts from 2027 to the second half of 2026, with an expected increase of approximately 3% and a further 5% rise in 2027 [1] Summary by Category Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in property developers' profits and dividends by 2027, leading to an average target price increase of 3% for real estate stocks [1] - Earnings forecasts for the period from this year to 2027 have been raised by up to 4% [1] Stock Recommendations - The company favors Longfor Properties and Sino Land among developers, upgrading Longfor's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raising its target price from HKD 39 to HKD 42 [1] - Sino Land is also given a "Buy" rating with a target price increase from HKD 9.8 to HKD 10.8 [1] Rental Stocks - The report expresses a positive outlook on Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties, both receiving "Buy" ratings with target prices raised to HKD 10 and HKD 24.5, respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development sector and an "Overweight" rating for real estate services [1][6]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong private residential market experienced a rise in both transaction volume and prices in June, with private residential prices increasing for three consecutive months [1][2]. - The report highlights that the market is expected to improve due to factors such as potential appreciation of the Renminbi, spillover effects from the Hong Kong stock market, and a rebound in population [1][2]. - The report suggests that the local developers and commercial operators in Hong Kong are likely to see valuation recovery, particularly companies with ample land reserves and quality commercial assets along the MTR lines [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In June, the number of new private residential transactions reached 2,140, up 28% month-on-month, while second-hand transactions totaled 3,605, up 11% month-on-month [1]. - For the first half of the year, new private residential transactions totaled 9,280, down 1.4% year-on-year, while second-hand transactions increased by 8.3% year-on-year to 18,452 [1][2]. Price Trends - The Hong Kong private residential price index stood at 286.7 in June, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.03%, marking three consecutive months of price increases [2]. - Rental prices also showed an upward trend, with the rental index rising by 0.31% month-on-month in June, continuing a seven-month streak of increases [2]. Interest Rates and Market Conditions - The one-month HIBOR averaged 0.68% in June, down 78 basis points from May, indicating a significant easing of the high-interest rate pressure that previously suppressed market demand [3]. - The report notes that the "supply exceeds demand" phenomenon continues, creating favorable conditions for first-time homebuyers [3]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on MTR Corporation (66 HK) and Link REIT (823 HK), with target prices of HKD 31.90 and HKD 50.59 respectively, both rated as "Overweight" and "Buy" [6][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant increase in Hong Kong's property market activity expected around March-April 2025, with a slight rise in the property price index observed in April-May 2025, leading banks to adopt a more positive stance on mortgage business [1] - The property price index from Midland Realty hit a low of 126.3 points in March and slightly rebounded to 127.5 points by the last week reported [1] - Factors contributing to the rebound in property prices include a "super rebound" from previous rapid declines, optimistic expectations regarding economic recovery, and a decrease in mortgage interest rates encouraging buyers to enter the market [1] Group 2 - Recent market activity shows that small and medium-sized unit buyers, along with first-time buyers, dominate the market, with popular unit prices ranging from 6 million to 7 million HKD, while units priced over 10 million HKD are experiencing lower liquidity [2] - The Hong Kong government's changes to the stamp duty policy, raising the threshold from 3 million HKD to 4 million HKD, have significantly impacted transaction volumes, with over 1,000 registrations for second-hand residential properties priced between 3 million and 4 million HKD in April, marking a new high since November 2016 [2] - The talent recruitment initiatives by the Hong Kong government have led to a reversal in the declining trend of the labor population since 2020, with 196,000 individuals arriving in Hong Kong as part of these measures [2] Group 3 - The company expresses a cautiously optimistic outlook for Hong Kong's property prices, predicting 45,000 new residential mortgage applications in 2025, ending a three-year decline since 2021, with existing home mortgages expected to rise by 10% to 55,500 applications [3] - The forecast for pre-sale mortgages is set at 6,500, representing a 55% increase compared to 2024, potentially reaching a five-year high [3] - However, uncertainties in geopolitical conditions and a high supply of new units, with approximately 24,000 units expected to be completed this year and nearly 100,000 over the next four years, may influence future price trends [3]