Core Viewpoint - The article argues that international trade, particularly the Sino-American trade relationship, is based on mutual cooperation rather than a zero-sum game, and that the U.S. trade deficit with China is a result of its own economic structure rather than a failure of Chinese trade practices [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to U.S. Trade Deficit - The U.S. has a low savings rate, with personal savings at 3.8% as of December 2024, while consumption accounts for about 70% of GDP, leading to a demand for imports that exceeds domestic production capacity [2]. - The hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing has seen the sector's contribution to GDP drop from approximately 25% in 1960 to around 10% currently, with manufacturing jobs decreasing from nearly 20 million in 1979 to just over 12 million today [2]. - The U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency necessitates maintaining a trade deficit to provide international liquidity, which contributes to the long-term existence of the trade deficit [2]. Group 2: Misconceptions About Trade Deficit - Viewing the trade deficit as a loss is misleading; trade should be assessed based on overall economic benefits, including profits and value added, rather than just trade balances [3]. - Although China has a trade surplus with the U.S., it still relies on imports of key components from the U.S. and other developed countries, and it purchases significant services from the U.S., indicating a more complex economic relationship [3]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs and Policy Recommendations - Imposing tariffs is unlikely to resolve the trade deficit and may harm the U.S. economy by increasing import costs, raising inflation, and ultimately burdening consumers and businesses [4]. - A study predicts that a broad 20% tariff could cost the average American household up to $4,200 annually [4]. - To address issues like manufacturing decline and wealth distribution, the U.S. should focus on internal reforms in education, manufacturing competitiveness, and infrastructure rather than blaming other countries [4].

Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold of 50[1] - The production and demand indices have risen into the expansion zone, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing activity[5] - The purchasing volume index showed the largest month-on-month improvement, followed by finished goods inventory and price indices[5] - The new orders index rose to 50.2, up by 0.4 from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased to 47.7, up by 0.2[10] - The price index remains at historical lows, which continues to squeeze future profit margins for companies[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with the service sector at 50.1 and the construction sector at 52.8, indicating mixed performance across sectors[12] - The service sector PMI saw a slight decline due to seasonal adjustments post-holiday, but is expected to rebound with the upcoming summer consumption peak[12] - The construction sector PMI showed a recovery, with the business activity index for housing construction rising above 51%, signaling positive changes in housing activity[13] - The investment in construction remains low year-on-year, primarily due to insufficient real estate investment demand[13]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China is showing signs of expansion, with key indices such as the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all experiencing a rebound in June, indicating a positive trend in economic activity [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, continuing a two-month upward trend despite remaining below the critical 50% threshold [3]. - The production index for enterprises was at 51%, indicating stable expansion, while the new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The easing of external disturbances due to a temporary thaw in US-China trade relations has allowed the manufacturing sector to stabilize, with market demand showing signs of recovery [5][6]. Construction Sector - The construction industry business activity index reached 52.8% in June, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rise in investment-related construction activities [7]. - The rapid progress in infrastructure project construction is highlighted by the ongoing implementation of special bonds for land acquisition and government investment funds, which are expected to stimulate further demand for infrastructure [9]. Financial Sector - The financial industry business activity index and new orders index both increased to over 60%, reflecting heightened supply and demand activities as the quarter ends, with financial support for the real economy continuing to strengthen [10]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5% in June, showing a slight increase, although sectors related to consumer travel experienced a decline in activity [11]. - Despite some short-term pullbacks, there is optimism regarding the upcoming summer consumption peak, with financial policies aimed at supporting service sectors expected to provide new momentum for growth [13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic evolution of the US tariff policy towards China in 2025, highlighting a shift from a dual-track system of "benchmark tariffs + differentiated rates" to a full upgrade to 125% "reciprocal tariffs" and selective exemptions for semiconductor-related products [1] - The article emphasizes that the fluctuations in tariff policy reflect the US's "maximum pressure" strategy and the deep-seated contradictions within its domestic political and economic landscape, indicating a critical turning point in Sino-US economic relations [1] - The adjustments in policy and market dynamics are profoundly impacting the global economic landscape, suggesting a need for strategic responses from China [1] Group 2 - The upcoming public lecture will explore economic trends and the construction of financial defense systems under the context of Sino-US competition, led by Professor Li Nan [2] - The agenda includes a discussion on the underlying logic of tariff negotiations, focusing on how US inflation, debt, and electoral politics drive policy fluctuations, and how China can enhance resilience through countermeasures and internal circulation [4] - The lecture will also analyze paths for industrial breakthroughs in key sectors such as semiconductors and new energy, as well as the feasibility of transshipment trade in the face of technological blockades [4] Group 3 - The investment strategy adjustments will focus on identifying long-term value anchors amid A-share market volatility and how companies can optimize their global layout by leveraging policy windows [4] - Professor Li Nan's expertise includes financial economics, econometrics, and macro asset pricing, with a focus on economic policy and investment decisions under uncertainty [6] - The collaboration with Nobel laureate Lars Peter Hansen and John C. Heaton on long-run risk measurement highlights the academic credibility and research depth of Professor Li Nan [6]

今年5月，马斯克、黄仁勋等数十名高管陪同特朗普访问沙特 美媒 当地时间26日，特朗普宣布已与中国进一步达成贸易共识，但未透露具体细节。 【文/观察者网 齐倩】 据日媒《日经亚洲》6月28日消息，美国官员正在为美国总统特朗普的访华行程制定计划，今年晚些时 候，特朗普或将率领由数十名首席执政官（CEO）组成的代表团访问中国。 报道称，此次访问预计将与特朗普5月份的中东之行类似。 当时，30多名美国商界领袖陪同特朗普访问沙特，达成了超过2万亿美元的交易。代表团中包括特斯拉 CEO马斯克、黑石CEO史蒂芬·施瓦茨曼、贝莱德CEO拉里·芬克、OpenAI公司CEO萨姆·奥特曼、英伟达 CEO黄仁勋、Palantir公司CEO亚历克斯·卡普，以及亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西。 6月5日晚，中美元首通话，引发国际社会广泛关注。 商务部新闻发言人27日回应表示，在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举 行经贸会谈，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的框架达成原则一致。伦 敦会谈后，中美双方团队保持着密切沟通。 发言人称，近日，经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节。中方将依法审批符合条件的 ...

来源：新华社 答：在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举行经贸会谈，就落实两国元首 6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的框架达成原则一致。伦敦会谈后，中美双方团队保持 着密切沟通。近日，经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节。中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申 请。美方将相应取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。期望美方与中方相向而行，按照两国元首6月5日通 话重要共识和要求，进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作，共同 推动中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展。 商务部新闻发言人就中美伦敦框架有关情况答记者问 有记者问：近日，美方有关官员和媒体称，中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅解，中国将加 快向美国出口稀土，美方相应取消对华有关限制措施。请问商务部对此有何评论？ ...

商务部新闻发言人就中美伦敦框架有关情况答记者问。 有记者问：近日，美方有关官员和媒体称，中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅解，中国将加快 向美国出口稀土，美方相应取消对华有关限制措施。请问商务部对此有何评论？ 此前，商务部在例行新闻发布会上多次回应稀土相关问题。 在6月12日的例行新闻发布会上，CGTN记者提问：我们注意到，美国总统特朗普在社交平台发文称，中 美已达成协议，美国将对华征收55%的关税，中国将对美征收10%的关税，并且中国将和之前一样向美 国出口磁体和稀土材料，请问发言人有何评论？ 对此，商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，据了解，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议讨论并达成落实两国元首6月5 日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识框架，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。中方反对单边加征关税措施 的立场是一贯的，敦促美方恪守世贸组织规则，与中方按照相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，共同 推动中美经贸关系稳定、可持续发展。 此外，对于稀土出口管制相关问题，何亚东多次表示，中国一贯高度重视维护全球产供链的稳定与安全， 依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的审查，已经依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续加强合 规申请的 ...

商务部新闻发言人就中美伦敦框架有关情况答记者问。 本期编辑 金珊 来源 | 央视新闻 SFC 有记者问：近日，美方有关官员和媒体称，中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅 解，中国将加快向美国出口稀土，美方相应取消对华有关限制措施。请问商务部对此有何评 论？ 答：在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举行经贸会谈，就落 实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的框架达成原则一致。 伦敦会谈 后，中美双方团队保持着密切沟通。近日，经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节。中方将依 法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请。美方将相应取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施 。期望 美方与中方相向而行，按照两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和要求，进一步发挥好中美经贸磋 商机制作用，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作，共同推动中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可 持续发展。 ...

百万用户都在看 突然！特朗普，释放重磅信号！ 刚刚，升破40000点！ 深圳，突发重磅！这个板块，集体飙升！"辐射效应"也在酝酿？ 重大变数！半导体，突发！ 中央明确公职人员违规吃喝认定标准 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 责编：王璐璐 校对：高源 答：在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举行经贸会谈，就落实两国元首6月5 日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的框架达成原则一致。伦敦会谈后，中美双方团队保持着密切沟 通。近日，经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节。中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请。美方将相应 取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。期望美方与中方相向而行，按照两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和要求， 进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作，共同推动中美经贸关系健康、稳 定、可持续发展。 来源：央视新闻 6月27日，商务部新闻发言人就中美伦敦框架有关情况答记者问。 有记者问：近日，美方有关官员和媒体称，中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅解，中国将加快向美 国出口稀土，美方相应取消对华有关限制 ...

有记者问：近日，美方有关官员和媒体称，中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅解，中国将加快 向美国出口稀土，美方相应取消对华有关限制措施。请问商务部对此有何评论？ 答：在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举行经贸会谈，就落实两国元首6 月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的框架达成原则一致。伦敦会谈后，中美双方团队保持着 密切沟通。近日，经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节。中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请。 美方将相应取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。期望美方与中方相向而行，按照两国元首6月5日通话重 要共识和要求，进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作，共同推动中 美经贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展。 ...