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政策高频 | 2025陆家嘴论坛召开(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-06-24 14:17
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial needs to drive transformation and upgrade in various sectors, particularly in engineering machinery [3] - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures aimed at enhancing Shanghai's international financial center status, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and improvements in cross-border payment systems [4][5] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration highlighted the need for open cooperation in financial reform, supporting foreign investment in green finance, and enhancing the multi-tiered pension insurance system [6][7] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation, introducing measures to enhance the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board as a testing ground for reforms [8][9] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to establish a more convenient and open foreign exchange management system, focusing on enhancing the service quality for the real economy and deepening reforms in direct investment foreign exchange management [10][11] - The Central Financial Committee and the Shanghai Municipal Government issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, focusing on financial market development and enhancing service quality for the real economy [12][13] Group 3 - The signing of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan" aims to enhance cooperation between the two regions in areas such as cross-border clearing and digital RMB applications [14][15]
一项衡量货币需求的关键指标正引起华尔街的关注
news flash· 2025-06-24 14:15
Core Insights - A key indicator measuring currency demand, known as "cross-currency basis swaps," is gaining attention on Wall Street [1] - This indicator reflects the cost of exchanging two currencies beyond the implied levels of cash market borrowing costs, influencing the long-term foreign exchange hedging costs for global companies and investors [1] - Recent trends in cross-currency basis suggest a decline in interest for dollar-denominated assets, while interest in euro and yen-denominated assets is increasing [1] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies appears to have triggered a temporary withdrawal from dollar assets, posing a challenge to the dollar amid growing skepticism about its global financial dominance [1]
7.5万亿外汇市场异常亮起“去美元化”指标:美元遭嫌,欧元受捧
智通财经网· 2025-06-24 13:57
智通财经APP获悉,在日交易额高达 7.5 万亿美元的外汇市场中,一项有关需求的指标引起了华尔街的 关注。这一指标表明,即便在市场动荡时期,投资者对美元的兴趣也有所减弱,而通常在这种情况下投 资者会蜂拥买入美元以避险。 包括摩根士丹利和高盛在内的几家银行的分析师均指出,近期所谓的"交叉货币基差互换"出现了变化。 这种互换是衡量将一种货币兑换成另一种货币所需额外成本的指标,该成本超出了现金市场借贷成本所 反映的范畴。当对某种特定货币的需求增加时,这种额外成本或溢价就会上升;而当需求不那么旺盛时, 这种溢价则会下降,甚至可能出现负值。 这些分析师指出,当美国总统特朗普在 4 月宣布"解放日"关税政策导致市场崩溃时,以基差掉期衡量的 对美元的偏好程度相对较低且持续时间较短;与此同时,对欧元和日元等其他货币的需求有所增长。这 与过去二十年中因安全需求而引发的抢购美元热潮形成了鲜明对比,比如疫情爆发时,美元在全球融资 市场中一直占据着溢价地位,这种现象持续了一段时间。 但华尔街的分析师们更关注的是全球资本流动在更长时期内所发生的持久性变化。 法国巴黎银行美国利率策略主管Guneet Dhingra在一次采访中说道:"通 ...
外汇展业改革参与银行增至18家 江苏银行和摩根大通入列
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-06-24 13:09
Core Viewpoint - The recent reforms in bank foreign exchange operations in China have led to increased participation from banks, enhancing efficiency and convenience for enterprises while maintaining risk control [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Progress - The number of banks participating in foreign exchange operations has increased from 4 to 18, covering a nationwide scope [1]. - The participating banks include 3 large banks, 9 joint-stock banks, 3 city commercial banks, and 3 foreign banks [1]. - New additions to the participating banks this year include Jiangsu Bank and JPMorgan Chase [1]. Group 2: Operational Changes - The reform emphasizes the identification of clients and risk monitoring, allowing high-quality clients to process foreign exchange transactions without document review [2]. - The pilot departments for foreign exchange operations in banks are typically the International Business Department and Transaction Banking Department [2]. - The reforms have significantly reduced the operational costs and improved efficiency in processing foreign exchange transactions [2]. Group 3: Policy Framework - The foreign exchange operation reform is a key component of the "more integrity, more convenience" policy framework [2]. - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance foreign exchange services for the real economy and has outlined three key areas of focus [3]. - The focus areas include supporting innovation and small enterprises, optimizing the management framework for foreign exchange operations, and establishing evaluation mechanisms for foreign exchange management policies [3].
DLS MARKETS:为何越来越多央行减持美元并转向黄金和人民币?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 10:06
Group 1 - The global central banks are increasingly planning to increase their gold exposure, with over one-third of 75 central banks managing approximately $5 trillion in assets indicating such intentions, marking the highest proportion in at least five years [1] - The shift towards gold is driven by the need for asset safety and yield considerations, reflecting a reassessment of the US dollar's dominance in the international financial system and a rising awareness of geopolitical risks [1][3] - Approximately 70% of central banks express reluctance to increase their US dollar asset allocation due to concerns over the unpredictability of the US political environment, a figure that has doubled from the previous year [3][4] Group 2 - There is a growing preference for the Chinese yuan and the euro among central banks, with 16% planning to increase their euro exposure in the next two years, a significant rise from the previous year [3] - The yuan's internationalization is steadily increasing, gaining a more significant role in global trade and foreign exchange reserves, despite its current limited share [3] - The changes in central bank asset allocation behavior are seen as a forward-looking signal of market trends, indicating a response to the evolving geopolitical landscape and international financial order [5]
金十图示:北京时间6月24日22:00将有欧元、日元、瑞郎、欧元兑瑞郎、英镑、欧元兑英镑、澳元、加元等外汇期权大单到期,1个行权价10亿以上大单,敬请管理风险。
news flash· 2025-06-24 06:56
Core Insights - A significant number of foreign exchange options are set to expire on June 24, with notable large orders exceeding 1 billion in various currency pairs [1] Group 1: Currency Pairs and Values - The Euro to US Dollar has a total value of 1.5 billion euros at strike prices ranging from 1.1545 to 1.1680 [3] - The Euro to Swiss Franc has a value of 2.5 billion euros at a strike price of 0.9505 [4] - The British Pound to US Dollar has a total value of 8.5 billion pounds at strike prices between 1.3465 and 1.3475 [4] Group 2: Additional Currency Options - The Australian Dollar to US Dollar has a total value of 3.21 billion Australian dollars at a strike price of 0.6450 [5] - The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar has a value of 7.24 billion dollars at a strike price of 1.3775 [5] - The Euro to British Pound has a value of 2.91 billion euros at a strike price of 0.8500 [4]
澳元兑美元AUD/USD向上触及0.65,日内涨0.63%
news flash· 2025-06-24 06:06
Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has risen against the US dollar (USD), reaching a level of 0.65, with an intraday increase of 0.63% [1] Group 1 - The AUD/USD exchange rate has touched 0.65, indicating a strengthening of the Australian dollar [1] - The intraday increase of 0.63% reflects positive market sentiment towards the Australian dollar [1]
中东局势和能源担忧拖累日元
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-24 03:35
Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a recent drop to 145.4460, reflecting a 0.48% decrease, primarily due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and energy concerns [1] - The USD/JPY rate rose from 146.00 to 147.21, surpassing the declining 100-day moving average at 146.80, indicating a strong upward trend since reaching a high of 147.66 on May 14 [1] - Traders are holding a significant long position in JPY amounting to $12.5 billion, and a close above the Ichimoku cloud could trigger short covering, with the 200-day moving average at 149.66 [1] Group 2 - Bank of America strategists recommend buying USD/JPY to hedge against escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, as Japan heavily relies on oil imports from the region [2] - The target price for USD/JPY is set at 152.0, with a stop-loss at 142, considering Japan's dependence on oil imports and potential fiscal risks ahead of the July 20 Senate elections [2] - The USD/JPY rate has fluctuated between 145.70 and 146.16, with support levels provided by the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 145.71 and 144.96, respectively [2]
日本财务省:日本财务官三村淳将连任第二年,继续担任对外汇事务的主要外交代表。
news flash· 2025-06-24 02:14
日本财务省:日本财务官三村淳将连任第二年,继续担任对外汇事务的主要外交代表。 ...
2025年6月24日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价
news flash· 2025-06-24 01:17
Core Points - The central bank's foreign exchange market has reported the RMB exchange rate against various currencies, indicating fluctuations in the value of the RMB [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Changes - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1656, showing a depreciation of 54 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.3106, reflecting an increase of 597 points [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is at 0.91283, down by 6.9 points [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is at 9.7018, up by 585 points [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.6426, increasing by 150 points [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is at 5.2194, down by 56 points [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.9137, up by 24 points [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is at 10.9442, increasing by 151 points [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.2938, up by 111 points [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.59761, increasing by 47.6 points [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is at 8.8174, up by 392 points [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is at 5.5877, increasing by 150 points [1]