美国滥施关税打击全球多国贸易和经济。当前，中国和东盟国家正开展全方位的合作，寻求缓解关税压 力的方法。 "由于亚洲各国的生产结构不同，因此美国所谓的'对等关税'可能会对它们造成不同程度的影响。"4月 26日，马来西亚双威大学杰弗里·谢东南亚研究所教授兼所长、杰弗里·萨克斯可持续发展中心高级研究 员Shandre Mugan THANGAVELU在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示，人们往往以为只有商品贸易 才会受到关税的影响，但全球价值链早已将各国联系起来。就在美国滥施关税的同时，世界各国的服务 贸易、物流仓储、运输和港口服务等都遭受破坏，所以像新加坡这样以服务业为基础的国家也会受到影 响。他认为，美国所谓的"对等关税"会对跨领域贸易的国家造成更加严重的影响。 在此背景下，建立中国-东盟共同市场被认为是良方之一。Shandre解释称，共同市场是指没有贸易壁垒 的市场，各个国家都要推动物资、投资、人员的自由流动，目前，中国和东盟正朝着建立共同市场的方 向在努力。 当前，中国和东盟之间不仅有自由贸易协定，还都在《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的框架 内。展望未来中国-东盟共同市场的发展方向，Shandre ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 厦门国贸（600755）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 公司提高分红比例延续高股息回报，一季度 实现小幅增长 ❖ 风险提示：经济出现下滑、大宗商品价格剧烈波动。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 354,440 | 314,548 | 324,229 | 343,048 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | -11.3% | 3.1% | 5.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 626 | 1,278 | 1,509 | 1,656 | | 同比增速(%) | -67.3% | 104.3% | 18.0% | 9.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.04 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 0.51 | | 市盈率(倍) | 173 | 18 | 14 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 注：每股盈利扣除了永续债利息 ...

Policy Dynamics - Domestic policies focus on the synergy between capital markets and the real economy, with a significant emphasis on stabilizing the stock market, as evidenced by a 60.6% year-on-year increase in securities transaction stamp duty in Q1 2025 [2] - The central government is promoting high-quality development in technology finance, with over 230 billion yuan in long-term special treasury bonds driving approximately 2.1 trillion yuan in social capital investment [2] - International policy divergence is increasing market volatility, with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's contrasting policies affecting global capital flows [2] Trade Tensions - The escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to a 34% tariff imposed by China on the US, causing significant market disruptions, including a drop of over 1500 points in US stock index futures and an 8% decline in international oil prices [3] - The demand for gold as a safe haven surged, pushing spot gold prices to a historic high of over 3440 USD per ounce [3] Technological Innovation - Financial technology is reshaping industry boundaries, with AI and big data driving product innovation, achieving over 60% penetration in risk control and customer profiling [5] - The market for carbon financial derivatives and ESG investment products is expanding rapidly, with a 30% year-on-year growth in data market trading volume expected to exceed 160 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The digital currency and cross-border payment systems are evolving, with the digital yuan app enhancing user experience and expanding cross-border settlement trials [5][6] Globalization and Risk Mitigation - Financial cooperation under initiatives like the Belt and Road and RCEP is enhancing cross-border payment networks, potentially reducing cross-border financing costs by over 30% [7] - Companies are diversifying supply chains and reducing reliance on US oil imports by 90%, shifting to alternative sources to mitigate geopolitical risks [7][8] - Businesses are adopting foreign exchange derivatives and supply chain diversification strategies to hedge against currency risks and regulatory compliance challenges [8] Structural Opportunities - Short-term risks include geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions, with investors advised to focus on safe-haven assets like gold and agricultural sectors while avoiding export-dependent industries [10] - Long-term opportunities lie in policy incentives and technological advancements, particularly in sectors like food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and green finance, with significant growth in green credit and inclusive small loans [12] - The financial sector is expected to increasingly direct resources towards technology innovation and green transformation, which are seen as core drivers of high-quality economic development [13]

Economic Overview - The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region achieved a GDP of 80,388.66 billion yuan in Q1, accounting for 25.22% of the national GDP, with an increase of 6,839.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - By province, Jiangsu's GDP was 33,088.6 billion yuan (5.9% growth), Zhejiang's was 22,300 billion yuan (6.0% growth), Shanghai's was 12,735.06 billion yuan (5.1% growth), and Anhui's was 12,265 billion yuan (6.2% growth) [1] Industrial Growth - High-tech manufacturing is a key driver of economic growth in the YRD, with Anhui leading in industrial value-added growth at 9.2%, followed by Zhejiang (8.9%), Jiangsu (8.2%), and Shanghai (3.7%) [5] - In Q1, the high-tech manufacturing sector in Jiangsu saw a significant increase, with high-tech industries accounting for 51.4% of the province's industrial output [6] - Anhui's high-tech manufacturing value-added grew by 20.1%, with notable growth in the automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles [8] Foreign Trade Performance - The YRD's total import and export volume reached 38.7 trillion yuan in Q1, representing 37.6% of the national total, with Zhejiang contributing 12.9 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 7.3% [4] - Export growth rates for Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu were 17.3%, 12.6%, 11.1%, and 9.6%, respectively [4] Consumption Trends - Consumption growth varied across provinces, with Anhui (5.8%) and Jiangsu (5.6%) showing positive growth, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 1.1% in retail sales [10] - The YRD is focusing on boosting consumption in Q2, with various provinces implementing specific measures to stimulate consumer spending [12][13] Strategic Development - Experts suggest that the YRD should leverage its integrated development strategy to enhance regional cooperation and optimize the industrial structure, particularly in high-tech sectors [3][7] - There is a call for strengthening links with RCEP countries and enhancing the domestic unified market to drive further economic growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Beibu Gulf Port (000582) [1][10] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in throughput, with a notable contribution from ASEAN exports, which increased by 27.15% year-on-year, leading to a total throughput of 328 million tons, up 5.61% year-on-year [5] - The company expanded its shipping routes, adding 8 new routes in 2024, bringing the total to 80, which enhances its operational capacity [6] - Short-term demand is supported by policy easing in 2025, while long-term growth is expected from initiatives like the Western Land-Sea New Corridor and the Pinglu Canal [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.77%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.219 billion yuan, up 8.18% year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 32.07%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points year-on-year, while the fourth quarter gross margin improved to 34.34% [5] - The report forecasts revenue growth to 7.361 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.203 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1% year-on-year [8][9] Market Performance - The stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 12-month performance of 13.8% compared to the index's 5.5% [3] - The current stock price is 8.84 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 20.56 billion yuan [3]

据最新报道，中国人民银行及其他相关部门共同发布了《上海国际金融中心加强跨境金融服务便利化实施 方案》。该方案强调，需增强人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）的功能以及其全球网络范围的拓展。 据证券分析报告显示，"对等关税"政策有可能促使全球跨境支付从全球性转向区域性，这将有助于支付体 系的多样化，并在一定程度上加快人民币跨境支付系统的发展步伐。 与此同时，广东省经济工作会议提出，必须竭尽全力保持外贸稳定，全力协助外贸企业争取订单，推动中 间产品和服务的贸易，并促进跨境电商的稳健增长。 在"对等关税"的政策环境下，外贸和跨境行业一方面需应对美国市场下滑带来的挑战，另一方面需积极拓 展其他市场。得益于政策的支持，跨境电商、物流和支付等基础设施行业正迎来新的发展机遇。 本期我们将深入探讨跨境支付、跨境电商、跨境物流三大领域，详细分析其发展现状，并基于业务间的关 联性，挑选出各领域内的代表性企业，以供大家深入研究与参考。素材来源，关注郑说市，拱众号，给您 带来更多资讯！ 领域一：跨境支付 随着人民币国际化的加速和"一带一路"倡议的深入实施，数字人民币跨境试点项目不断推进，第三方支付 机构也在积极开拓国际市场。 通过优化外汇 ...

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 广州报道 "柬埔寨和中国之间的政治互信得到了进一步巩固和深化，这向世界表明，像柬埔寨这样的小国和像中 国这样的大国、经济强国可以携手合作，促进区域共同发展，共享繁荣。"4月18日，柬埔寨亚洲愿景研 究院院长成金珑在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示，在美"对等关税"的挑战下，中国周边外交的意 义和重要性越发凸显。 美国"对等关税"重棒打击东南亚多国，东南亚国家正积极寻求对策缓解关税压力。与此同时，中国正与 东南亚国家积极开展全方位的合作。成金珑表示，从长远来看，美国政府这种不公平的保护性关税制 度，将重塑全球供应链格局，在许多区域可能会出现贸易转移。这还将导致国家之间的贸易网络结构发 生变化并远离美国。 在外部风险加剧的情况下，柬埔寨应该加强与中国之间的关系，东盟也要作为一个整体，加强与中国之 间的经贸、投资以及文化交流，以促进货物和服务贸易的自由流通，通过购买彼此的货物和服务，抵御 美国的"不公平关税"，以应对全球经济、贸易和投资供应链面临中断带来的风险和挑战。 因此，他认为，不仅是柬埔寨，东盟要作为一个整体来加强与中国之间的经贸和投资关系，促进货物和 服务贸易的自由流通，通过购 ...

Group 1 - In the first quarter, Yichun's total import and export reached 5.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [1] - Exports amounted to 4.46 billion yuan, growing by 30.3%, while imports were 690 million yuan, increasing by 4.3% [1] - Production-oriented enterprises dominated the foreign trade, accounting for 81.7% of the total foreign trade value [1] Group 2 - Private enterprises played a significant role as a "stabilizer" in foreign trade, with imports and exports reaching 3.36 billion yuan, a growth of 36.9% [1] - Foreign-invested enterprises had imports and exports of 1.7 billion yuan, growing by 9%, while state-owned enterprises accounted for 97.37 million yuan, increasing by 27.2% [1] Group 3 - Trade with major partners showed overall growth, with ASEAN, EU, Japan, and the US seeing respective trade values of 1.27 billion yuan, 810 million yuan, 700 million yuan, and 630 million yuan [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 2.62 billion yuan, growing by 38.7%, while trade with other RCEP members was 2.2 billion yuan, increasing by 47.1% [2] Group 4 - Processing trade continued to rise, with imports and exports totaling 1.25 billion yuan, a growth of 89.8%, accounting for 24.3% of the total [2] - Mechanical and electrical products maintained a rapid growth rate, with exports of 2.01 billion yuan, increasing by 67.7% [2] Group 5 - The demand for intermediate goods remained stable, with imports totaling 620 million yuan, a growth of 5.2%, making up 90.7% of total imports [3] - Integrated circuits and inorganic chemicals saw imports of 220 million yuan and 100 million yuan, growing by 5.7% and 34.7% respectively [3]

Group 1 - Chengdu aims to expand its foreign trade market, maintaining traditional markets like the EU and ASEAN while encouraging enterprises to explore emerging markets, promoting local products to go abroad [1][2] - In 2024, Chengdu's total foreign trade import and export volume is projected to reach 839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, ranking first among central and western cities in China [1] - Chengdu's imports and exports to ASEAN and the EU grew by 26.9% and 12.9% respectively, with trade with Belt and Road countries and RCEP countries increasing by 13.5% and 13.9% [1] Group 2 - Chengdu will leverage high-profile domestic and international exhibitions to facilitate precise supply-demand matching for local products going abroad, and support enterprises in forming alliances to explore overseas markets [2] - The city plans to cultivate new growth drivers in foreign trade, such as expanding the export scale of digital sectors like online gaming and software services, and enhancing the "green" competitiveness of electric vehicle-related enterprises [2] - As of January this year, the China-Europe Railway Express (Chengdu-Chongqing) has surpassed 36,000 trips, maintaining the highest operational scale in the country [2]

未来5年至10年的世界，大国博弈、地缘竞争加剧，使得不确定性的程度和范围不断加大；与此同时， 《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）合作推进、中国快速发展，将为世界注入更多宝贵的确定 性。 近年来，全球自由贸易的不确定性明显加大，具体表现在四个方面： 与此同时，合力建设高水平全球最大自由贸易区的积极影响值得重视。今年，中国与东盟有望签署中国 —东盟自贸区3.0版，这将显著提升中国—东盟自贸区的规制水平；中日韩自贸协定的谈判也可能于今 年有所突破，这将助力达成"RCEP+"水平的中日韩自贸协定。此外，如果2025年中国香港、智利、斯里 兰卡加入RCEP，那么RCEP将成为一个跨区域组织。由此，RCEP不仅将拓展亚洲经济一体化空间，也 将在应对美国挑战全球自由贸易体系以及引领包容公平的全球经贸规则等方面发挥重要作用。 作为RCEP最大经济体，中国有序扩大自主开放和单边开放，为全球自由贸易提供重要动力。 中国以单边开放拓展了全球和区域自由贸易空间。预计到2030年，中国服务型消费比重有望从2024年的 46.11%上升到50%，中国将进入服务型社会。这不仅将深刻改变中国的经济发展方式，而且将对全球经 济带来深远影 ...