智通财经APP获悉，比预期温和的通胀数据和中美贸易战显著缓和的态势，正在缓解市场对未来数月美国家庭和企业将遭受严重冲击的担忧。这促使华尔街 机构下调经济衰退预期，并为美联储维持当前利率水平提供了政策空间。 摩根大通和巴克莱等机构周二纷纷调整经济预测，以反映中美上周末达成协议后的良性经济前景。根据协议，双方将降低自4月初以来实施的最严厉惩罚性 关税。 摩根大通经济学家现在认为经济衰退概率已低于50%；巴克莱经济学家则完全移除了衰退预测。两家机构此前均预期高关税将重创消费者和企业，抑制支出 和经济活动。 中美协议也促使金融市场重新定价，大幅削减了对美联储需在7月前降息以缓冲经济下滑的押注。交易员目前预计年内仅会有两次降息，最早9月启动。 美国劳工部周二数据显示，4月消费者物价指数同比上涨2.3%，创四年多来最小涨幅。这强化了市场预期，即美联储决策者将在下半年逐步降息，而非采取 更早更激进的行动。 "市场一直担忧关税会推高通胀，这种风险仍然存在。但今日数据至少让投资者松了口气，通胀仍在朝正确方向发展。"Longbow资产管理公司CEO杰克·多拉 海德表示。 不过，Raymond James经济学家指出："贸易政策的 ...

亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型预测，在一季度经济意外下滑后，二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）增速 有望回升至2.3%。华尔街也进一步看好美国经济前景，摩根大通认为，因贸易谈判取得了进一步的实 质性进展，衰退的概率已经明显下降（市场定价为35%）。 就在上月，摩根大通将经济衰退的可能性提高到60%，理由是特朗普的激进关税立场。"关税的进一步 降级、贸易谈判的积极势头、强劲的（第一季度）收益和有弹性的宏观数据导致了跨资产的广泛机遇。 在美国和中国同意在贸易谈判同时降低关税90天后，这一势头正在增强。" 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发出后，全球市场迎来狂欢。不过，在美元上涨和金价重挫的背后，避险 情绪降温意味着美联储又有了一个等待降息的理由。 中美双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识。双方认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性，认识 到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性，本着相互开放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精 神，继续推进相关工作。 作为经济的重要风向标，5月12日美国银行板块走强。美银、富国银行、花旗、高盛涨幅均超过3%。标 普银行ETF盘中突破了4月2日的收盘价，这意味着该行业现在已经收复了特朗普公布 ...

从世界末日到狂欢：一个月内策略师完全转向，华尔街大型投行集体"认错"。 随着特朗普关税政策的戏剧性转向，华尔街分析师被迫快速修改其股市和经济预测，呈现出前所未有的 频繁变动。 摩根大通、高盛双双回撤衰退预测 摩根大通的首席经济学家Michael Feroli昨日宣布，他正在放弃一个月前做出的经济衰退预测。 在中美在经贸领域达成重要共识后，Feroli连夜"改报告"，将全年GDP增长预期从0.2%上调至0.6%， 并将衰退风险评估下调至"远低于50%"，同时将2025年首次降息预期从9月推迟至12月。 短短一个月前，由于特朗普对全球发起关税战并引发了股市抛售潮，华尔街策略师们以疯狂的速度下调 了对标普500指数和美国经济的预测。 但本周"画风突变"——特朗普政府改变方向，最近甚至与中国达成了暂时降低双方关税的协议。这迫使 同一批策略师不得不对其预测进行180度大转弯。 华尔街资深专家、Yardeni Research创始人Ed Yardeni对此表示： "这确实是一次疯狂的旅程，我很少改变我的预测，但这次我告诉客户，我保留根据总统改 变主意的频率来改变我的预测的权利。" 讽刺的是，这不是Feroli第一次"错判 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 269.67 points, closing at 42140.43 points, a decline of 0.64% [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 42.36 points, closing at 5886.55 points, an increase of 0.72%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 301.74 points, closing at 19010.08 points, a rise of 1.61% [1] - The S&P 500 index's eleven sectors had six gainers and five losers, with the technology and consumer discretionary sectors leading gains at 2.25% and 1.41% respectively, while the healthcare and real estate sectors led losses at 2.97% and 1.3% respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, below the market expectation of 0.3%, while the year-on-year increase was 2.3%, also below the expected 2.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching the market expectation, and had a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - Concerns about economic recession and persistent inflation have significantly eased, with market expectations for further stock market gains [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5900 to 6100 due to reduced trade tensions, while Yardeni Research increased its target to 6500 based on lowered concerns about significant economic slowdown [2] - The chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs noted that the increase in the S&P 500 target reflects lower tariffs, better economic growth, and reduced recession risks [2] - Fitch Ratings remains cautious about the current trade situation, emphasizing that the effective tariff levels in the U.S. are still significantly higher than those expected in 2024 [3] Group 4 - UnitedHealth Group Inc. announced the immediate resignation of its CEO Andrew Witty and suspended its full-year earnings guidance, resulting in a significant stock price drop of 17.79% [3] - Nvidia's stock rose by 5.63% following news of selling 18,000 advanced AI chips to Saudi Arabia [3]

金十数据5月14日讯，据路透社/益普索民调：特朗普的支持率上升至44%，比四月末的民调高出2个百 分点。59%的受访者认为今年的经济衰退将归咎于特朗普，而37%的受访者则将责任归咎于美国前总统 拜登。 特朗普民调支持率上升 ...

美联储发布最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（俗称"褐皮书"）。这份报告汇总了美联储12家地区银行在过去几周收集到的美国各地经济现状和 前景信息，将作为美联储5月召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议的重要决策参考。报告指出，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变 化，但国际贸易政策的不确定性普遍存在。 据北京日报报道，美国副总统万斯5月在接受采访时称，美联储主席鲍威尔"这个人不错"，但他同时表示鲍威尔"几乎在所有事情上都错了"。 "好吧，首先，我认为总统对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的看法是正确的。杰罗姆·鲍威尔，他这个人不错，但他几乎在所有事情上都错了。"万斯在接受福 克斯新闻网采访时表示。他随后称，鲍威尔在应对美国前总统拜登造成的通胀问题时行动迟缓，现在协助特朗普政府反击贸易协议时也反应太 迟。"因此，我认为杰罗姆·鲍威尔在这一点上就是错了。"他补充说。 美联储（资料图） 美国经济（资料图） 20世纪50年代起，美国制造业"空心化"态势就已经显现。如今，制造业在美国经济总量当中占比仅一成左右，经济结构的转变推动了美国企业 将更多制造环节向效率更高、成本更低的地方迁移。而包括中国在内的其他国家承接美国企业的部分生产环节，则是基 ...

MidCap Financial Investment (MFIC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 13, 2025 08:30 AM ET Speaker0 morning and welcome to the Earnings Conference Call for the period ended 03/31/2025 for MidCap Financial Investment Corporation. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode. The call will be opened for a question and answer session following the speakers' prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to Elizabeth Beeson, Investor Relations Manager for MidCap Financial Investment Corporation ...

摩根大通：美国经济衰退的风险目前低于50%。 预计美联储将于12月降息，此前预计为9月。 ...

智通财经5月13日电，巴克莱预计2025年下半年美国不会陷入衰退，之前预测为温和衰退；仍预计未来 几个季度美国经济增长将放缓。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that while the external environment is favorable for bond futures, caution is advised due to the relatively low bond yields and the potential impact of tariffs. For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended. In the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of gold is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised. For commodities, different strategies are proposed based on the supply - demand, valuation, and technical analysis of each product [6][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bond futures closed significantly lower. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.31%, 0.46%, 0.2%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but the current bond yields are relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and the Sino - US trade agreement has made progress. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 1.23%, 0.77%, 1.48%, and 1.56% respectively [8][9]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks are a positive sign, but the structural contradictions and deep - seated differences between the two countries still exist. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 772.28 with a decline of 2.05%, and the main silver contract closed at 8,232 with an increase of 0.78% [12]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, the increased risk of global economic recession due to tariff disturbances, and the potential passive easing of monetary policies around the world are expected to drive up the price of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised [12][13]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil are 2,940 yuan/ton, 3,040 - 3,170 yuan/ton, and 3,230 - 3,250 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder are 760 yuan/ton and 626 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore has decreased but is still the highest among black - series products. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the previous low is broken [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. The demand for coke from some steel mills has decreased, and the second - round price increase is difficult to implement. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have reached new lows, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered [19]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract rose 1.80% to 5,866 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 1.55% to 5,636 yuan/ton [21]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The inventory of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron is high. For manganese - silicon, call option opportunities at low levels can be considered; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [23]. Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the cooling of Sino - US tariff tensions [24]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: OPEC+ will increase production in May - June, and the market is worried about oversupply. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil, but $65 per barrel of Brent crude is an important resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose significantly. Singapore's land - based fuel oil inventory has dropped to a seven - week low [27]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the reduction of tariff friction and the decrease in inventory are positive. A long - biased operation for the main fuel oil contract is recommended [27][28]. Rubber (including Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber) - **Synthetic Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose 3.28%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was raised to 11,750 yuan/ton [29]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply pressure continues, but the demand is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost has rebounded. It is short - term bullish, but the upward space is limited [29][30][31]. - **Natural Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main natural rubber contract rose 2.18%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 2.40%. The Shanghai spot price was raised to 14,900 yuan/ton [32]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the overall situation, it may show a weak - side fluctuation [32][33]. Chemical Products (including PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Lithium Carbonate) - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.27%, and the spot price remained stable [34]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [34][35][37]. - **Urea** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 0.26%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was raised to 1,970 yuan/ton [38]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent agricultural demand will start. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [38][39]. - **PX** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 3.23%, and the PXN spread rose to $210/ton [40]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term crude oil price is expected to rebound, and PX is expected to follow the cost - side rebound. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [40][41]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 3.11% [42]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the cost is expected to turn better. The price may have upward repair space. Buying in the low - range is recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 1.97% [43]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is less than expected, the supply increase is not obvious, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is expected to rise. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policies [43][44]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose 2.71% [45]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost - side. Short - term long positions on dips are recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [45]. - **Bottle Chip** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose 2.12% [46]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The raw material price has strengthened, and the supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have improved. The price is expected to rebound following the cost - side. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices [46]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [47]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the prices of raw materials are falling. The inventory has increased slightly. In May, there will be concentrated device maintenance, which may cause short - term market adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [49]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The production line is at a low level, and the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The tariff adjustment may affect downstream products, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [49][50]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,545 yuan/ton, up 2.58% [51]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for caustic soda from alumina and non - aluminum downstream industries is limited. Some plants will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have a certain driving force. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise plants and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [52][53]. - **Pulp** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed at 5,256 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [54]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic and international supply of pulp is abundant, but the downstream consumption is weak. The market is in a weak pattern. Attention should be paid to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [55][56]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 64,040 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [57]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still in excess, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to run weakly [57]. Metals (including Copper, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon) - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, closing above the 60 - day moving average. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,260 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day line of Shanghai copper has been suppressing the price. The Sino - US talks have achieved important results, and the copper tariff may not be implemented. The copper price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for the main Shanghai copper contract [58][59]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose 1.33% to 264,570 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, but the current supply is tight. The downstream demand has phased support, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate weakly [61]. - **Nickel** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell 1.26% to 124,180 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost is supported. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is not high, and the demand may weaken in the off - season. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main industrial silicon contract closed at 8,320 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, and the main polysilicon contract closed at 38,450 yuan/ton, up 2.49% [63]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for the industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. The price is affected by delivery factors and production - cut news, and the fluctuation is intensified. It is still in the capacity - clearing cycle, and a bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [63][64]. Agricultural Products (including Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract fell 0.17% to 2,908 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose 0.03% to 7,814 yuan/ton [65]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. The upward pressure on the main soybean meal contract is large, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is enhanced, and call option opportunities at the bottom support range can be considered [65][66]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 1.9% year - on - year [67]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil** - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed contracts showed mixed results. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has increased, the inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has slightly decreased [70]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [71]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly, and the overnight external cotton market closed slightly higher [72]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US negotiation is favorable for cotton, but the USDA's supply - demand report is negative. The domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to the S