Group 1: Employment and Economic Indicators - The latest non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Labor Department shows a significant decline, with July's unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, and only 73,000 new jobs added, below the expected 110,000 [1] - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, with stagnating consumer spending and shrinking construction and manufacturing sectors, indicating potential job market weakness [2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly dropped to 48, marking a nine-month low, primarily due to decreasing orders and worsening employment conditions [3] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Policies - A report from Yale University indicates that the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934, as U.S. tariff policies continue to evolve [1] - The OPEC statement reveals that eight major oil-producing countries will increase production by an average of 547,000 barrels per day in September [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Resilience - The European Banking Authority (EBA) reports that EU banks are sufficiently resilient to withstand economic shocks from geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, with no banks violating core capital requirements [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. is likely to maintain the recently imposed tariffs on multiple countries, including a 35% tariff on most Canadian goods, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India, and 39% on Switzerland, as stated by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer [1] - The Swiss government is willing to modify its concessions in response to the high tariffs, with concerns that the 39% tariff could lead to an economic recession in Switzerland [1][2] - The Swiss economy is heavily export-oriented, and the imposition of tariffs could significantly impact its economic output, potentially reducing GDP by over 1% if long-term export disruptions occur [2] Group 2 - The Swiss government is exploring options to address the trade deficit with the U.S., which reached 38.5 billion Swiss francs (approximately 48 billion USD) last year, including increasing investments in the U.S. and purchasing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) [2] - The Swiss stock market is expected to be impacted by the tariff news, with predictions of a potential interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank in September due to weakened economic growth and increased deflationary pressures [3]

Market Overview - Major stock indices in the US and Europe experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones down by 1.23% and the Nasdaq down by 2.24% [1] - The European Stoxx 50 fell by 2.90%, while the German DAX decreased by 2.66% [1] - Asian markets also showed negative trends, with the Hang Seng Index down by 1.07% and the Nikkei 225 down by 0.66% [1] Economic Indicators - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that the US economy is on the brink of recession, citing stagnation in consumer spending and contraction in construction and manufacturing sectors [2] - High inflation complicates potential policy support from the Federal Reserve, with a noted decrease in labor force growth and a drop in labor participation rate [2] - The job market is showing signs of tightening, with increased hiring freezes and reduced average working hours [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is at 89.1%, with only a 10.9% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - There is a 52.8% probability of a total rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year [3] OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, marking an early exit from the current supply reduction plan [4][5] - This shift indicates a strategic change from defending oil prices to increasing production capacity, raising expectations of a global supply surplus in the latter half of the year [5] UK Economic Policy - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% due to economic challenges stemming from tax increases and cautious consumer behavior [5] - There is speculation regarding the Bank's stance on quantitative tightening, particularly in light of rising tensions in long-term UK bond yields [5] Indian Manufacturing Advocacy - Indian Prime Minister Modi urged citizens to purchase domestically manufactured goods to support the economy amid global uncertainties [8][9] - Modi emphasized the importance of domestic manufacturing and consumption for the welfare of farmers, small industries, and youth employment [9] Technological Developments - Elon Musk announced the launch of Grok Imagine, an AI text-to-video generator, which is currently in testing and allows users to create videos from text descriptions [10] - OpenAI's GPT-5 is nearing release, with expectations of enhanced coding and commercialization capabilities [10] Market Trends in Alcohol Industry - The wholesale price of Moutai's zodiac snake liquor has dropped below 2000 yuan per bottle for the first time, indicating a significant decline from its market guidance price of 2499 yuan [10]

Market Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively fell over 2% this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 2.36%, 2.92%, and 2.17% respectively[11] - The German DAX, London FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Korea Composite Index also experienced declines of 3.27%, 0.57%, 1.58%, and 2.40% respectively[11] Economic Data - Non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, with a downward revision of 258,000 jobs in the previous two months, leading to increased concerns about economic momentum[5] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, consistent with expectations, primarily influenced by immigration effects[5] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, with a cautious stance on potential rate cuts in September, dropping the probability of a cut below 40% initially[29] - Following the disappointing non-farm data, market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September surged to 80.3%, with predictions for three rate cuts in total this year[29] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.04% over the week, while the euro and Chinese yuan fell by 1.32% and 0.11% respectively[11] - U.S. Treasury yields saw significant declines, with the 2-year yield down 22 basis points and the 10-year yield down 17 basis points by August 1[12] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.93% amid rising inflation concerns due to tariffs, while copper prices plummeted by 23.88% following a 50% tariff announcement on certain copper products[13] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.37% during the week[13] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various imports, with a 40% transit tax on transshipped goods, effective August 7[34] - Tariff concerns have heightened market volatility and investor caution, impacting overall market sentiment[11]

| 20:30 | ■ 美国7月失业率 | 0 ***** | 4.10% | 4.20% | 4.2% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ■ 美国7月季调后非农就业人口(万人) | 0 0 ***** | 1.4 | 11 | 7.3 | | | 您せ您工程不够好片可回来 ■ | 8 ***** | 3.8% | 3.80% | 3.9% | | | ■ 美国7月平均每小时工资月率 | @ ***** | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.3% | 其实本周，不仅仅是A股，全球股市都陷入调整当中。尤其是周五的非农数据公布之后，美股陷入大跌，除了黄金之外，其他资产价格最终都收绿。 | 道琼斯工业平均指数 | 43588.58 | -542.40 | -1.23% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 迷你道琼斯连续 | 43705.00 | -600.00 | -1.35% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 20650.13 | -472.32 | -2.24% | | 标准普尔500指数 | 6238.01 | -101.38 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is experiencing unprecedented turmoil driven by unexpected economic data and political maneuvers, particularly from the Trump administration, which is influencing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][7]. Economic Data Impact - The July non-farm payroll report showed a surprising drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000, triggering a global market reaction [3]. - Following the report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.23%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 2.24%, Brent crude oil prices plummeted by 3%, and the dollar index experienced a flash crash of 1.3% before closing down by 0.83% [3]. Political Reactions - President Trump reacted strongly to the disappointing employment data, accusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics of data manipulation and subsequently firing its director, which sparked widespread criticism from both Democrats and some conservatives [3][4]. - The political intervention raised concerns about the integrity of economic data, with professional organizations warning that it could undermine public trust [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor, nominated by President Biden, has shifted the balance of power within the Fed, potentially favoring a dovish stance as Trump seeks to appoint allies to fill the vacancy [4]. - The current composition of the Federal Reserve Board may lead to a solidified dovish voting bloc, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [4]. Market Expectations - Following the weak employment data, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to 90% in the futures market, indicating strong market sentiment towards easing monetary policy [7]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic reports, including the August non-farm payroll and inflation data, which will influence the Fed's decision-making process [9]. Investor Sentiment - A recent Wall Street Journal poll indicated that 79% of investors believe that the Federal Reserve's independence is being compromised by political factors, reflecting growing concerns about the influence of the Trump administration on monetary policy [9].

Economic Overview - The overall state of the U.S. economy is perceived as good, although some experts predict a recession due to rising tariffs impacting businesses and consumers [1][2] - The unemployment rate remains low, but significant signs of a fractured job market are emerging, with a notable decline in job creation [7][9] Trade and Tariffs - Recent trade agreements have set tariffs at 15% with the EU, but ongoing negotiations with China have not yielded a formal agreement, maintaining uncertainty in trade relations [2][4] - The Trump administration's new tariffs, including over 15% on various trade partners, have created shockwaves in global markets, with record tariff revenues exceeding $29 billion reported [6][12] Corporate Performance - Major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta have reported strong earnings, contributing to a surge in stock market performance, with Microsoft briefly surpassing a market capitalization of $4 trillion [5] - However, UPS has declined to provide financial forecasts for the remainder of the year, raising concerns about the impact of the trade war on corporate performance [5] Employment Data - The revised employment report indicates a significant drop in job creation, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, leading to an average of just 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months [7] - Despite the low job creation numbers, the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, attributed in part to immigration policies affecting the labor force [7][8] Political and Economic Implications - The White House has welcomed the decline in foreign-born workers, suggesting a shift towards a more stable domestic workforce [8] - The political influence on statistical agencies and the Federal Reserve is raising concerns among economists, with potential implications for economic credibility and policy decisions [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in average effective tariff rates in the U.S., reaching 18.3%, the highest in 91 years, and its potential impact on consumer prices and the economy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Rates and Economic Impact - As of July 31, the average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is 18.3%, marking the highest level since 1934 [2]. - The tariff policy is projected to reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [2]. - Consumers may face a 40% increase in shoe prices and a 38% increase in clothing prices in the short term, with long-term projections of a 19% increase for shoes and a 17% increase for clothing [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion, attributed to rising tariff concerns and poor employment reports [1][5]. - Analysts predict that the additional tariffs, combined with weak employment data, may lead to further declines in the S&P 500 index in August [3]. Group 3: Export License Delays - The U.S. export licensing agency is reportedly near paralysis due to internal chaos, resulting in thousands of export license applications being stalled, the worst backlog in over 30 years [6]. - Delays in license approvals are putting U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage globally and raising concerns among businesses seeking overseas sales opportunities [6]. Group 4: International Trade Relations - The U.S. has imposed new tariffs on 69 trading partners, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, affecting various countries differently [4][5]. - Despite threats from the U.S. regarding oil imports from Russia, India has not altered its purchasing strategy, continuing to buy Russian oil [7].

美国关税政策持续冲击全球经济。美国专家认为，这是一项荒谬的经济政策，将给美国消费者和企业带来压力，并拖累全球经济。 美国彼得森国际经济研究所研究员 加里·赫夫鲍尔：我认为美国经济在放缓，因为许多家庭已负债累累。今年上半年，企业投资情况并不好，许多公司根本 不知道接下来会发生什么，所以它们推迟了投资。因此，我认为我们正走向一个经济增长放缓的时期，甚至可能出现一定下滑，乃至轻微衰退。 专家认为，美国关税政策不仅仅对美国的经济情况造成影响，更会为全球经济带来额外的压力。 专家表示，美国关税政策再加上疲软的就业情况，或将导致美国股市再次下跌；普通家庭不堪重负、企业无所适从。 美国金融研究与分析公司首席投资策略师 萨姆·斯托瓦尔：由于额外的关税，叠加比预期差得多的就业报告。8月份标准普尔500种股票指数可能会再次下 跌。 美国彼得森国际经济研究所研究员 加里·赫夫鲍尔：这完全是一项荒谬的经济政策，美国消费者将为此付出代价。不出意外的是，到10月、11月，我们会看 到这将反映在消费者价格指数上。 美国金融研究与分析公司首席投资策略师 萨姆·斯托瓦尔：这些关税可能导致全球贸易放缓，给个人消费支出约占美国经济70%的美国消费 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.23%, the S&P 500 down by 1.60%, and the Nasdaq dropping by 2.24% on Friday [1] - European markets also faced losses, with Germany's DAX index down by 2.66%, France's CAC40 down by 2.91%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.70% [2][3] Economic Data - Recent U.S. labor market data indicates a slowdown, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% [6] - Revisions to previous months' data showed a significant downward adjustment, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [6] - The labor market's rapid deceleration raises concerns about a potential recession, as indicated by the weak employment figures [6] Federal Reserve Response - The disappointing labor market data has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, especially among dissenting members of the FOMC [7] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains that the labor market remains robust but acknowledges the need to monitor inflation risks, particularly in light of new tariffs imposed by President Trump [6][7] Tariff Developments - President Trump signed an executive order to raise tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, and introduced a new "reciprocal tariff" framework for several countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41% [7][8] - This move has heightened market anxiety and contributed to the overall decline in stock prices [7] Commodity Market Impact - International oil prices fell sharply, with U.S. crude oil down by 2.89% to $67.26 per barrel and Brent crude down by 3.00% to $69.55 per barrel, driven by concerns over a potential recession and increased production from OPEC+ [9][10] - Precious metals saw gains, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.01% to $3,416.00 per ounce and silver up by 1.07% to $37.11 per ounce [11]