Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ningbo Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 28.09 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 23.36 CNY [5]. Core Views - Ningbo Bank's 2024 revenue showed a steady growth of 8.19% year-on-year, with pre-provision profit increasing by 13.92% and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 6.23% [1][11]. - The bank's net interest margin demonstrated resilience, with a slight decrease of only 2 basis points compared to 2023, outperforming peers [8][10]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan generation rate gradually declining, benefiting from controlled consumer credit expansion [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Ningbo Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 3.78% year-on-year, driven by scale expansion, widening net interest margin, and cost savings, despite a slowdown in non-interest income growth and increased taxes [1]. - The average daily balance of interest-earning assets grew by 16.01% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 5.64 percentage points compared to Q3 2024 [1][8]. - The bank's non-interest income decreased by 12.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decline in other non-interest income [8]. Credit and Asset Quality - New loans in Q4 2024 totaled 214 billion CNY, a decrease of 153 billion CNY year-on-year, with both corporate and retail credit growth lagging behind 2023 levels [2][10]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with improvements in corporate loan asset quality [9][32]. - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 389.35%, indicating strong risk resistance capabilities [9][32]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 6.50% and a net profit growth of 5.48% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet while controlling risk [11][12]. - The dividend payout ratio has significantly increased to 22.77%, reflecting a stronger commitment to shareholder returns [10][11].

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the combined revenue of 23 listed banks in 2024 is expected to decline by 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 1.8%, showing a marginal improvement in performance [1] Group 1: Overall Review - The revenue and net profit growth rates continue to show improvement but remain under pressure [1] - The net interest margin contraction is still the main drag on performance, although the decline has narrowed by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The net interest margin contraction is expected to negatively impact performance by approximately 11.1%, while scale expansion will contribute to performance growth by about 8.7% [2] - Net interest income is projected to decline by approximately 2.3%, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points [2] - Fee-based income is expected to negatively impact performance by about 1.1%, while other non-interest income will contribute to performance growth by approximately 2.8% [2] - A decrease in asset impairment losses is anticipated to contribute to performance growth of 2.9% [2] Group 3: Asset Quality Outlook - The non-performing loan generation rate for retail loans is expected to remain high in 2025, with a potential turning point in 2026 [3] - The new non-performing loan balance in 2024 is primarily expected to come from retail loans, while corporate loans are projected to see a decline in non-performing loans [3] - Economic downturn is leading to decreased repayment capacity, particularly in retail loans, due to insufficient risk screening and post-loan management [3] Group 4: Performance Outlook - For 2025, the revenue growth rate for listed banks is expected to be around -1%, with net profit growth projected at approximately 1% [4] - The net interest margin is expected to contract by about 12 basis points in 2025 [4] - The asset expansion rate is anticipated to slow to around 7.0%, leading to a near-zero decline in net interest income [4] - Retail loan non-performing loan generation is expected to remain high, but banks will continue to release profits by reducing provisions, resulting in a slight positive growth in net profit [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking industry [4][70]. Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the banking sector shows improvement, with a slight increase in net profit despite revenue decline [11][69]. - Retail loan non-performing loans (NPLs) are expected to remain high in 2025, but a turning point is anticipated in 2026 [2][49]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is projected to narrow by approximately 12 basis points in 2025, with net interest income expected to stabilize near zero [55][69]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the banking sector due to external uncertainties, recommending high-dividend stocks in the short term, while favoring high-growth quality stocks for the year [70]. Summary by Sections Overall Review - In 2024, 23 listed banks reported a revenue decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 1.8%, indicating a slight improvement in performance [11][69]. - The main factors affecting net profit growth include a 11.1% decline due to narrowing NIM and an 8.7% increase from scale expansion [14][69]. Asset Quality Outlook - The NPL generation rate for retail loans is expected to remain volatile at high levels in 2025, with a potential turning point in 2026 [2][49]. - The overall NPL ratio for the 23 listed banks was 1.25% at the end of 2024, showing a slight improvement [16][23]. Performance Outlook - The report predicts a revenue growth rate of approximately -1% and a net profit growth rate of about 1% for 2025, marking the end of the current performance downturn cycle [69][70]. - The NIM is expected to narrow by 12 basis points, while net interest income is projected to stabilize near zero [55][69]. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, high-dividend stocks such as China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank are recommended due to the lack of clear positive changes in the macroeconomic environment [70]. - For the entire year, high-growth quality stocks like China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Changshu Bank are favored [70].

Core Insights - The six major state-owned banks in China have shown steady growth in their financial performance, with total assets nearing 200 trillion yuan and a slight increase in profitability despite challenges such as narrowing interest margins and asset-liability issues [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the six banks collectively achieved an operating income of approximately 3.52 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with four banks reporting positive growth [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the six banks reached 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 245 billion yuan or 1.8% compared to the previous year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Interest income for the six banks decreased by 1.58%, with three banks reporting increases and three reporting declines [4]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 34.1% year-on-year, driven by factors such as a favorable bond market [4]. Asset and Loan Growth - Total assets of the six banks reached 199.68 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 15 trillion yuan or 7.87% from the beginning of the year [7][8]. - The total amount of loans and advances exceeded 118 trillion yuan, with an increase of 9.55 trillion yuan or 8.85% year-on-year [7][8]. Credit Allocation - The banks have maintained strong support for key sectors, with significant loan growth in manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, and green development [9][10]. - Despite a slowdown in new credit issuance, the banks continue to support the real economy, particularly in critical areas [9]. Liability Management - Total liabilities for the six banks were approximately 184 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.01% from the beginning of the year [10]. - The total deposits reached about 142 trillion yuan, with a growth of 6.66 trillion yuan or 4.91% year-on-year, although there was a noticeable outflow of corporate deposits [10][11]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality has improved, with most banks reporting a stable or declining non-performing loan (NPL) ratio [13][14]. - However, there is a rising trend in NPLs within retail sectors such as personal housing loans and credit cards [13][15]. Support for Private Enterprises - The banks have committed to supporting private enterprises, with significant loan balances reported, particularly by Agricultural Bank and Construction Bank [16][17]. - The focus on financing for private enterprises is expected to continue, with plans for substantial credit support in the coming years [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Hangzhou Bank [2][6][12] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank's revenue in Q1 2025 grew by 2.2% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 7.4 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year. Despite challenges such as a slowdown in net interest income growth and fluctuations in the bond market affecting non-interest income, the company managed to maintain positive revenue growth [6][7] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76%, stable compared to the end of the previous year. The provision coverage ratio decreased to 530.07%, but overall, the asset quality is still considered excellent [9][10] - The bank's loan balance increased by 57.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3%. Deposits also saw a significant increase, growing by 76.22 billion yuan in the same period, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.1% [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 32,927 million yuan, with projections of 35,010 million yuan for 2023, 38,379 million yuan for 2024, 41,900 million yuan for 2025, and 45,665 million yuan for 2026. The year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 12.2%, 6.3%, 9.6%, 9.2%, and 9.0% respectively [2][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11,679 million yuan in 2022, projected to grow to 14,383 million yuan in 2023, 16,982 million yuan in 2024, 19,643 million yuan in 2025, and 22,651 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.1%, 23.2%, 18.1%, 15.7%, and 15.3% respectively [2][12] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for Q1 2025 is 0.76%, remaining stable compared to the previous year. The provision coverage ratio is at 530.07%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [10][11] - The bank's loan-to-asset ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points to 44.8% in Q1 2025, reflecting a solid lending position [9] Market Position and Strategy - Hangzhou Bank has a significant regional advantage, with a strong presence in Zhejiang Province and strategic branches in developed economic zones such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, which enhances its growth potential [6][12] - The bank's retail financial services are expected to grow, driven by consumer credit and wealth management initiatives [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.13 CNY / 7.91 HKD [6][10]. Core Views - The bank's net interest margin has increased against the trend, and retail loan growth has shown marginal improvement. The bank reported a total operating income of 750.15 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.88% to 335.58 billion CNY [2][10]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.34%, and the provision coverage ratio declining by 3.4 percentage points to 233.6% [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financial Indicators**: - Total operating income: 750,151 million CNY, down 2.54% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 335,577 million CNY, up 0.88% year-on-year - Earnings per share: 1.29 CNY - Price-to-earnings ratio: 6.82 [5][10]. - **Future Projections**: - Revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.3%, 4.2%, and 5.6% respectively, with net profit growth forecasted at 1.1%, 2.0%, and 3.8% [10][11]. Asset Quality and Loan Growth - The bank's asset quality is on an improving trend, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.34% and a net generation rate of non-performing loans at 0.41% [10][11]. - Retail loan growth has improved marginally, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in Q4 2024, while corporate loan growth has slowed [10][11]. Interest Margin and Cost Management - The net interest margin increased by 4 basis points to 1.49% in Q4 2024, primarily due to a reduction in funding costs [10][11]. - The bank's cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 14 basis points to 1.72% [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's foreign currency asset hedging has mitigated the decline in interest margins, while its asset quality continues to improve [2][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 630.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 237.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.56% increase [5][7]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.25%, with a provision coverage ratio rising to 200.60%, indicating robust asset quality [5][7]. - The net interest margin for 2024 was reported at 1.40%, with a slight reduction of 1 basis point, showing signs of stabilization [7][8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.24 yuan per share for 2024, representing a 2.54% increase from the previous year [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total assets reached 35.06 trillion yuan, growing by 8.11% year-on-year, while total loans amounted to 21.54 trillion yuan, up by 8.22% [5][8]. - Deposits totaled 24.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.66% [5][8]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 625.51 billion, 650.33 billion, and 683.35 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -0.73%, 3.97%, and 5.08% [8][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 238.85 billion, 243.84 billion, and 249.12 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 0.42%, 2.09%, and 2.17% respectively [8][17]. Dividend Information - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 30%, with a projected dividend yield of 4.34% based on the current share price [9][17].

Core Insights - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) is addressing two main concerns: the long-term "tight balance" of its core Tier 1 capital and the unique adjustment mechanism of its "self-operated + agency" model [1][2] - The bank is set to receive an injection of 130 billion yuan from special government bonds, which is expected to increase its core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio by 1.5 percentage points [1][2] - The bank's proactive adjustment of agency fees aims to enhance its ability to serve the real economy and improve profitability [1][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, PSBC reported operating income of 348.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.83%, and a total profit of 94.592 billion yuan, up 3.27% [2] - The total assets of the bank exceeded 17 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.64% year-on-year growth [2] Capital Increase and Shareholder Support - The bank's capital increase of 130 billion yuan is the largest since its establishment, with the Ministry of Finance planning to subscribe for 117.58 billion yuan, becoming the second-largest shareholder [2] - Major shareholders, including China Mobile and China Shipbuilding, are also increasing their stakes, which will provide a solid backing for the bank's future operations [2] Pricing and Impact on Shareholders - PSBC is employing a "locked price + premium issuance" strategy for its capital increase, which aligns with regulatory requirements and benefits both new and existing shareholders [3] - The estimated dilution impact on the bank's weighted average net assets is around 6%, with expected dividend yields for A-shares and H-shares remaining above 4% and 4.5%, respectively [3] Agency Fee Adjustment Strategy - The bank's agency fee was adjusted from 1.23% to 1.08% in 2023, a reduction of 15 basis points, with a 2.51% increase in agency fee income compared to the previous year [3][4] - The current adjustment is proactive, aimed at optimizing the liability structure and reducing interest costs [4] Interest Margin and Asset Quality - In 2024, PSBC's net interest income grew by 1.53%, with a net interest margin of 1.87%, amidst ongoing pressure on interest margins in the banking sector [5] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.90%, with personal loans identified as a primary pressure point for asset quality [6][7] Personal Loan Quality Analysis - The NPL ratio for personal loans showed mixed trends, with increases in housing and business loans, while non-housing consumer loans and credit card loans saw declines [7] - The bank's personal loan portfolio is characterized by a large number of clients with relatively small average loan amounts, which mitigates systemic risk [7]

Core Viewpoint - Minsheng Bank aims to support private enterprises, with loans to this sector exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of total loans in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the group's total assets reached 7.8 trillion yuan, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with loans amounting to 4.45 trillion yuan, up 1.5% [2] - The group's operating income was 136.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% from the previous year, while net profit fell by 9.8% due to increased risk provisions and technology investments [2][3] - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.39%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but the decline was less than the industry average [4] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.47%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the previous year, and the NPL generation rate was 1.49%, down 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The bank recovered 67.4 billion yuan in non-performing assets in 2024, with cash recovery of 10.2 billion yuan from written-off assets [6] Real Estate and Financing Platform - The NPL ratio for the real estate sector was 5.01%, with a slight decrease in NPL generation and overall asset quality remaining stable [7] - The financing platform business balance was 98.257 billion yuan, a 26% decrease from the previous year, indicating manageable risk levels [7] Specific Loan Cases - The loan balance for Dongfang Group was 7.694 billion yuan, down approximately 1.9 billion yuan year-on-year, with provisions made based on risk assessments [8] - The loan balance for Fan Hai Group was 18.484 billion yuan, with provisions also made considering the risk status [8] - The loan balance for Evergrande Group was 9.1 billion yuan, primarily for real estate projects, with provisions made to mitigate potential impacts on the bank's operations [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) with a target price of 7.56 CNY / 5.99 HKD [2][8]. Core Views - ICBC demonstrated strong resilience in net interest margin and stable asset quality, with a slight decrease in non-performing loan ratio to 1.34% and a provision coverage ratio of 214.9% [2][8]. - The bank's total operating income for 2024 was 821.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 365.9 billion CNY, up 0.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights improvements in loan structure, particularly in retail loans, which saw a growth rate of 3.5% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total operating income (million CNY): 2024: 821,803; 2025E: 828,128; 2026E: 844,278; 2027E: 883,234 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million CNY): 2024: 365,863; 2025E: 368,388; 2026E: 379,648; 2027E: 392,481 [3]. - Earnings per share (CNY): 2024: 1.01; 2025E: 1.02; 2026E: 1.05; 2027E: 1.09 [3]. - Price-to-earnings ratio: 2024: 6.72; 2025E: 6.67; 2026E: 6.47; 2027E: 6.25 [3]. Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - Non-performing loan ratio: 2024: 1.34%; 2025E: 1.33%; 2026E: 1.31%; 2027E: 1.31% [11]. - Provision coverage ratio: 2024: 215%; 2025E: 212%; 2026E: 208%; 2027E: 205% [11]. - The report notes a decrease in asset impairment losses by 16% year-on-year, contributing positively to profits [8]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.8%, 2.0%, and 4.6% respectively, and net profit growth forecasts to 0.7%, 3.1%, and 3.4% respectively [8]. - The bank's valuation is considered undervalued at 0.63x 2025 PB, with a target PB of 0.7x for 2025E [8].