Group 1 - The stock of Kemper (KMPR) closed at $63.29, showing a 1.3% gain over the past four weeks, with a mean price target of $82.2 indicating a potential upside of 29.9% [1] - The average price targets from analysts range from a low of $75.00 to a high of $90.00, with a standard deviation of $5.72, suggesting a variability in estimates; the lowest estimate indicates an 18.5% increase, while the highest points to a 42.2% upside [2] - Analysts show strong agreement on the company's ability to report better earnings than previously predicted, which supports the view of potential upside [4][11] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 1.2% over the past month, with one estimate going higher and no negative revisions [12] - Kemper currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of potential gains, the implied direction of price movement appears to be a good guide [14]

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) shows potential for upside with a mean price target of $54.8, indicating a 27.3% increase from the current price of $43.06 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $4.14, suggesting a consensus among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate is $50.00, indicating a 16.1% increase, while the highest estimate is $58.50, suggesting a 35.9% increase [2] - Analysts' price targets should be approached with caution, as their reliability has been questioned [3][7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Agreement - Strong agreement among analysts regarding QFIN's earnings prospects supports the potential for stock upside [4][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 2.3% over the past month, with two estimates revised upward [12] - QFIN holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Conclusion on Price Movement - While consensus price targets may not be entirely reliable, the direction they imply appears to be a good guide for potential price movement [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Teradyne (TER), and highlights the potential misalignment of interests between brokerage analysts and retail investors [1][5][10]. Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations for Teradyne - Teradyne has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.93, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, with 60% of recommendations being Strong Buy and 6.7% being Buy [2][4]. - The article suggests that relying solely on the ABR for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies indicate that brokerage recommendations often fail to guide investors effectively [5][10]. Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, resulting in a disproportionate number of favorable ratings compared to negative ones [6][10]. - The article emphasizes that the best use of brokerage recommendations is to validate independent research rather than as a primary decision-making tool [7][10]. Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - Zacks Rank is presented as a more reliable tool for predicting stock performance, based on earnings estimate revisions, and is categorized into five groups from Strong Buy to Strong Sell [8][11]. - Unlike ABR, which may not be up-to-date, Zacks Rank reflects timely changes in earnings estimates, making it a more effective indicator for future stock prices [12]. Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for Teradyne - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Teradyne remains unchanged at $3.16 for the current year, suggesting stable analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, Teradyne holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious approach despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect General Mills to report quarterly earnings of $0.71 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 29.7%, with revenues projected at $4.6 billion, down 2.4% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding stocks, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [2] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- North America Foodservice' at $593.35 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +0.7% [4] - 'Net Sales- International' is expected to reach $671.56 million, reflecting a +0.6% change from the year-ago quarter [4] - 'Net Sales- North America Pet' is projected at $646.14 million, showing a year-over-year increase of +7.3% [4] - 'Net Sales- North America Retail' is anticipated to be $2.71 billion, indicating a -5% change from the prior-year quarter [5] Operating Profit Estimates - 'Operating Profit- North America Retail' is expected to be $492.98 million, down from $670.10 million year-over-year [5] - 'Operating Profit- International' is projected at $32.83 million, compared to $22.40 million from the previous year [6] - 'Operating Profit- North America Pet' is estimated at $124.25 million, down from $143.90 million year-over-year [6] - 'Operating Profit- North America Foodservice' is expected to be $78.51 million, slightly down from $79.20 million year-ago [6] Stock Performance - Over the past month, General Mills shares have returned -0.8%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +0.6% [7] - General Mills currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance compared to the overall market in the near future [7]

Core Insights - Paychex (PAYX) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.19 per share, reflecting a 6.3% increase year over year, with revenues projected at $1.39 billion, a 7.3% increase compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.8% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between these revisions and short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Revenue- Management Solutions' at $1.01 billion, a 9% increase from the prior year [5] - 'Revenue- Interest on funds held for clients' is projected to reach $40.14 million, up 5.1% year over year [5] - 'Revenue- Total service revenue' is expected to be $1.36 billion, reflecting a 7.9% increase from the previous year [5] - 'Revenue- PEO and Insurance Services' is forecasted to be $341.79 million, a 4.7% increase year over year [6] Investment Balances - The 'Average investment Balance - Funds held for clients' is projected at $4.43 billion, down from $4.68 billion reported in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Average investment Balance - Corporate cash equivalents and investments' is expected to be $1.63 billion, compared to $1.65 billion a year ago [7] Interest Rates - Analysts expect 'Average interest rates earned - Funds held for clients' to be 3.4%, down from 3.5% in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Average interest rates earned - Corporate cash equivalents and investments' is projected to be 4.3%, compared to 5.3% a year ago [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Paychex shares have declined by 3.8%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 0.6% [9] - Paychex holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance will likely align with the overall market in the near term [9]

在6月18日举办的2025陆家嘴论坛上，中国证监会主席吴清发表主题演讲时指出，推出进一步深化科创 板改革的"1+6"政策措施，他强调，希望更大力度培育壮大耐心资本、长期资本，聚焦私募基金"募投管 退"各环节卡点堵点，精准发力、畅通循环。积极推动社保基金、保险资金、产业资本参与私募股权投 资，拓宽资金来源。 他指出，创新的不确定性、伟大的不可计划性，要求我们增强制度的包容性、提高市场的活力。一个包 容的、有强大财富效应的资本市场，对保护企业家精神、激励创新创业、推动科技发展具有至关重要的 作用。注册制的核心是调动全社会的创业和投资热情，进而改变全社会的融资结构。因此，实行注册 制，必然要完成一种底层逻辑的转换，即从更关注企业的当下价值、短期价值转向更关注企业的未来价 值、长期价值，而允许未盈利企业上市，就是这种底层逻辑的集中体现。 "硬科技企业具有长周期、大投入、高风险、高回报的特点，很多企业成立几年甚至十几年后都处于亏 损状态，然而在它们的高速成长期，却难以通过上市获取足够的发展资源。允许它们在未盈利时就上 市，可以帮助其更好地兑现其成长潜力，并让全社会共享其成长性。"张维补充说，"当前，A股未盈利 企业上市 ...

Group 1 - The recent suspension of the old-for-new national subsidy policy indicates its effectiveness, but it may also reflect concerns about potential exploitation by businesses [2] - The second-hand car market is struggling due to the attractiveness of new car discounts, which may limit the impact of the subsidy policy on second-hand sales [4] - Durable consumer goods, particularly home appliances like vacuum robots and water purifiers, are expected to see strong sales trends this year, especially during the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival [4] Group 2 - The decline of premium liquor brands like Moutai is attributed to the lingering effects of alcohol bans, while new consumer trends favor "self-indulgent" purchases [6] - The long-term viability of Moutai depends on its brand value perception among younger consumers, who may not share the same appreciation for its cultural significance [6] - The stock market's health relies on the presence of attractive stocks, with a significant portion of the market being less desirable, while unprofitable companies often capture investor interest [7] Group 3 - There is a need for a mechanism to ensure that market preferences are reflected in the IPO process, allowing for a more democratic selection of companies to go public [7] - The focus should be on investor demand rather than profitability when considering which companies should be listed [7]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the out-of-the-money option model provides a new approach to valuing unprofitable companies, addressing the challenges of traditional valuation methods and promoting more accurate assessments of their true value [1][3]. Group 1: Valuation Challenges - Valuing unprofitable companies is complex as traditional metrics like price-to-earnings ratio and net asset value are not applicable due to the absence of net profit [1]. - The limitations of traditional valuation methods often lead to confusion and misjudgment in the market regarding the value of unprofitable companies [1]. Group 2: Out-of-the-Money Option Model - The out-of-the-money option model offers a scientific method for valuing unprofitable companies by capturing their future growth potential, similar to how out-of-the-money options possess time value despite having no intrinsic value [1][2]. - This model emphasizes key factors such as industry prospects, technological innovation, and team strength, which are crucial for determining whether a company can achieve profitability and significant value growth [2]. Group 3: Practical Implications - The application of the out-of-the-money option model can optimize resource allocation in capital markets, attracting more venture capital and long-term investments to innovative but unprofitable companies [2]. - By providing a more objective and accurate valuation range, the model helps mitigate the risks of overvaluation or undervaluation in the market, contributing to a healthier and more stable capital market [2]. Group 4: Limitations and Considerations - While the out-of-the-money option model presents a promising approach, it has high data requirements and the predictions may carry uncertainties, necessitating the integration of other valuation methods and professional judgment for improved accuracy [2].

证券研究报告 公用环保 2Q25 业绩前瞻：火电利润高弹性，环 保关注现金流 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 2Q25 业绩前瞻：火电利润高弹性，环保关注现金流 5 月全国火电发电量由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降（考虑 1 个月库存）， 考虑煤炭结构差异，我们认为主要火电公司 2Q25 业绩或出现分化；4/5 月 全国水电发电量同比下滑，不同流域存在分化；核电机组稳健运行；1-4 月 装机增长支撑绿电运营商电量同比提升；4 月全国天然气表观消费量同比下 滑。展望 3Q25，火电关注电价 vs 煤价剪刀差；水电盈利主要取决于来水情 况；绿电关注机制电价细则和国补确权进展；燃气关注天然气需求是否改善； 环保公司主要关注现金流、水价调整、绿色和智慧潜能释放空间。 火电：5 月发电量由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降，业绩或出现分化 4 月全国火电发电量同比下滑，5 月由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降。据 国家统计局，2025 年 4/5 月全国火电发电量同比-2.3/+1.2%。考虑 1 个月 库存，2Q25 秦皇岛动力末煤平仓均价 654 元/吨（5500 大卡），同比下降 2 ...

Group 1: Electric Vehicles - The report anticipates a 22% year-on-year increase in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driven by policies such as trade-in incentives, new model releases, and price reductions [2][16][22] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is expected to grow by 22% in 2025, supported by carbon emission regulations and ongoing subsidies [2][18][22] - The global demand for power batteries is projected to grow at a rate of 25% in 2025, with a significant increase in battery capacity requirements due to enhanced vehicle range [22][24] Group 2: Wind Power - The domestic wind power market is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with new installations projected at 100 GW for land-based and 12 GW for offshore wind in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 23% and 114% respectively [3][4] - Internationally, the wind power market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increased policy support [3] - The report highlights opportunities in offshore wind and related supply chains, including wind turbines, piles, and submarine cables [3] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The report expects global photovoltaic installations to reach 530-560 GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0-6%, influenced by domestic demand and emerging markets [4] - Supply-side reforms are anticipated to play a crucial role in reshaping the industry, with a key window for these reforms expected between the second half of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [4] - New technologies such as bifacial cells and metallization processes are highlighted as areas of interest for future growth [4] Group 4: Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year in 2025, supported by strong bidding data and the advancement of market-oriented electricity pricing [5] - In the U.S., energy storage installations are expected to increase by 23% in 2025, despite concerns over subsidy reductions [5] - The European market is forecasted to see a 36% increase in energy storage installations in 2025, with significant contributions from large-scale commercial storage [5] Group 5: Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is experiencing a recovery, with growth expected in 2025 due to increased demand from traditional and new energy industries [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots and AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) technologies as key areas for investment [9] - Companies involved in high-value components and new technologies, such as PEEK materials and disc motors, are recommended for attention [9]