Core Viewpoint - Brazilian Finance Ministry official Melo indicated that there is room for negotiation with the United States following Trump's announcement of tariffs, suggesting potential diplomatic engagement despite the tensions [1] Group 1 - Brazil may consider imposing tariffs on imports as a retaliatory measure, although this action has not yet been confirmed [1]

[Table_Author] 杨见一 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320525050001 证书:S1320523020004 核心观点： 证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 11 日 短评：特朗普关税谈判延期，新一轮关税威胁再起 事件：7 月 7 日，特朗普延长原本于 7 月 9 日到期的对等关税暂停命令； 陆续通过"关税信函"方式通知 8 月 1 日起对日、韩等 21 个国家征收 20%到 40%不等的关税。7 月 7 日，特朗普向 14 国发送第一批"关税信 函"；7 月 9 日，特朗普又发出了 7 封关税信函。目前已经发出的 21 封关 税信函主要针对亚洲和非洲国家，包括日本（25%），韩国（25%），老挝 （40%），缅甸（40%），柬埔寨（36%），泰国（36%）、孟加拉国 （35%），印尼（32%）等。对比 4 月 2 日对等关税名单，仍有 36 个国家 未收到信函，预计 8 月 1 日前其他国家将陆续收到特朗普新拟定的关税。 信函威胁的关税税率与 4 月 2 日对等关税差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, stated that negotiations with the United States regarding tariffs have not yielded any results, and the EU does not wish to take retaliatory measures [1] Group 1 - The EU is currently engaged in tariff negotiations with the United States [1] - No progress has been made in the ongoing discussions about tariffs [1] - The EU aims to avoid implementing any retaliatory actions in response to the tariff negotiations [1]

克里姆林宫：我们期待乌克兰就继续谈判的日期提出建议。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by a situation of increasing supply and demand. Although industrial inventories are accumulating, they remain at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly line, with a weekly change of - 1.62% and an amplitude of 2.52%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 78,430 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on interest - rate cuts, with three main camps: cutting rates this year but excluding July (the mainstream), keeping rates unchanged throughout the year, and advocating immediate action at the next meeting [4] - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Commerce responded that the US Commerce Secretary might meet with Chinese negotiators in early August, and the two sides are maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels [4] - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to operate in the negative range, and port inventories decreased. The supply of concentrates is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the cost - side support for copper prices remains. On the supply side, the price of by - product sulfuric acid is favorable, and the resumption of some smelters after environmental inspections and the ramping - up of new production capacity have increased production willingness and actual output. On the demand side, the US plan to impose large - scale tariffs on copper has adjusted the international trade flow of copper. The decline in copper prices has stimulated downstream inventory building in China, and domestic macro - policies have strengthened consumption expectations [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 515 yuan/ton. The main contract was priced at 78,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 178,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 37,056 lots. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [10][13] - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,075 yuan/ton [13] - **Options Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the Shanghai copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.5950, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0954 [27] - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 1,607 lots, a decrease of 10,625 lots from last week [22] 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - **Prices and Fees**: The quotes of upstream copper mines weakened, and the processing fees of blister copper remained flat [28] - **Imports and Spreads**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.3952 million tons, a decrease of 0.5098 million tons from April, a decline of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.59%. The spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,022.99 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 693.43 yuan/ton [34] - **Production and Inventory**: As of April 2025, the monthly global output of copper concentrates was 1,909 thousand tons, a decrease of 59 thousand tons from March, a decline of 3%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79.2%, unchanged from March. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous period [39] Supply - Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of May 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, unchanged from April and a year - on - year increase of 15.15%. As of April 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,365 thousand tons, a decrease of 55 thousand tons from March, a decline of 2.27%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.3%, an increase of 0.3% from March [41] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline of 15.64%. The import profit and loss was - 219.98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 231.23 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total inventory of LME increased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the total inventory of COMEX increased by 9,687 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [53] Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of May 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.096 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from April, an increase of 0.72%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 15.69% [59] - **Applications**: As of May 2025, the cumulative investment completion in power grids and power sources increased by 19.8% and 0.39% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 1.6%, 1.6%, - 3.3%, 0.6%, and - 9.2% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative investment in real estate development was 362.3384 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% and a month - on - month increase of 30.67%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 193.46 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 28.21% [65][71] Overall - **Global Supply - Demand**: As of April 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global refined copper market had a supply gap of - 50 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 193,600 tons [76]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is showing a predominantly positive trend, with rapeseed meal futures experiencing a price increase of 1.46% [1][2] - The main rapeseed meal futures contract opened at 2610.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 2646.00 CNY and a low of 2610.00 CNY during the trading session [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor compared to alternatives [2] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with some expecting price pressure due to the influx of Brazilian soybeans and tight supply of old-season rapeseed [2] - The low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal are contributing to short-term price fluctuations [2] - The market is currently observing a wait-and-see approach regarding the outcomes of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere [2]

股指早报 反内卷主题持续，A 股仍需反复 2025 年 7 月 11 日 股指期货早报 2025.7.11 报告摘要： 海外方面，美上周初请失业金人数录得 22.7 万人，低于预期 23.5 和前值 23.2 万人，数据指向美劳动力市场的韧性。在美联储货币政 策方面，摩根大通 CEO 戴蒙表示美联储加息概率高于市场预估。圣路 易斯联储主穆萨勒姆表示通胀面临上行风险，但目前尚不清楚关税是 否会对价格产生持久影响，暗示支持美联储不降息。而旧金山联储主 席戴利则支持今年降息两次。目前市场都是定价美联储降息，需要关 注美联储降息方面短期反复折腾与变数。在关税方面，越南表示与美 关税谈判遭被刺，11%水平变为 20%。美与越南关税谈判存在的反复 会对与其他国家谈判产生负面影响。隔夜外围市场走势来看，美元指 数微涨，美债收益率短端有所反弹，黄金收涨，原油下跌，美三大股 指小幅收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，离岸人民币汇率小幅升值。 美联储鹰派与关税方面影响隔夜市场。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘低开震荡上涨 0.48%，深成指上涨 0.47%，创业板指上涨 0.22%，市场呈现指数震荡反弹但个股两极分 化走势。银行板块上涨是贡 ...

加拿大总理卡尼当地时间10日深夜就美国总统特朗普当天早些时候宣布将向加拿大加征35%关税回应说，加方将坚定维护本国从业者和产业的利 益，将把与美国的贸易谈判期限延长至8月1日，即美方关税起征日。他同时强调，将继续加强同其他贸易伙伴的关系。 加拿大总理卡尼在社交媒体上回应美国对加拿大加征关税的截图。 加拿大：维护利益，继续谈判 卡尼在社交媒体上说，在当前与美国的贸易谈判中，加拿大政府一直坚定地维护本国工人和企业的利益。"我们将继续这样做，并朝着8月1日这一 修订后的最后期限而努力。" 加拿大外交部长阿妮塔·阿南德10日在马来西亚出席东盟地区论坛外长会后表示，加方仍希望与美方达成一项建设性且互利的协议，同时"最大限 度地维护加拿大的国家利益"。她未透露双方贸易谈判的具体进展。 当天早些时候，特朗普宣布，美国将自8月1日起对从加拿大输入美国的商品加征35%关税，且该关税将区别于所有已宣布的行业关税单独执行。 特朗普在信中称，若加拿大决定提高对美关税水平，无论增加税额是多少，美国将在上述35％关税基础上对等增加。 特朗普当天是在致加拿大总理卡尼的信函中宣布上述举措的。这封信同时公布在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上。 美国 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 当日行情： 银行间流动性边际收敛、A 股走强以及监管指导压降银行投债比例传闻压制 债市，国债期货震荡走低、全线下跌。 利率现券： 银行间各主要期限利率现券收益率全面上行，至下午 16：30，10 年国债活跃 券 250011 收益率报 1.659%上行 1.4bp。 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月10日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The ceasefire negotiations regarding Gaza have reached a deadlock due to fundamental disagreements among the parties involved, particularly concerning the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Negotiation Status - A Palestinian official indicated that the new round of ceasefire talks in Doha, Qatar, has not made any breakthroughs [1] - The current pace of negotiations is described as "two steps forward, one step back" [1] Key Disagreements - The main point of contention in the negotiations is the issue of Israeli troop withdrawal [1] - Israel demands to retain military presence in certain areas of Gaza, controlling approximately 35% of the territory, which Hamas strongly opposes [1] Humanitarian Aid - Although progress has been made in discussions regarding humanitarian aid in recent days, this issue remains unresolved [1]