人民日报12月15日刊发评论员文章，题目为《着眼全局，把握明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向—— 论学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神》。全文如下： 会议明确明年经济工作的政策取向，指出"坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，这将有力引导经济社会发展预期，有助于充分释放和提升宏观政 策效能。对明年财政政策和货币政策定调，要求继续实施更加积极的财政政策，继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，这与今年的政策取向一以贯之，体现了宏观政策的连续性、稳定性，是不断巩固拓展经济稳中 向好势头的重大决策部署。 今年以来，从安排1.3万亿元超长期特别国债加力支持"两重""两新"，到创设和实施多项结构性货币政 策工具为科技创新、提振消费等提供助力，再到强化宏观政策民生导向、使更多资金资源"投资于 人"……一项项政策因时酝酿、因势推出、协同发力，激发出经济高质量发展的强劲动能。实践充分证 明，有效的宏观政策、精准的宏观调控，对于促进我国经济平稳健康发展至关重要。 把握明年经济工作的政策取向，一个重要方面就是"提质增效"。既坚持积极务实的目标导向，把握好政 策实施的力度、节奏和时机，发挥"集成效应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a pragmatic and positive approach to economic work for 2026, focusing on stabilizing growth, optimizing structure, and prioritizing people's livelihoods while addressing existing challenges and risks in the economy [2][3][4]. Economic Situation Assessment - The conference acknowledges both achievements and ongoing challenges in the economy, recognizing that many issues are solvable through effort [3][4]. - China's economy demonstrated resilience in 2025, with exports exceeding expectations and capital markets performing well, contributing to a projected GDP growth of around 5% for the year [4][5]. Policy Orientation - The conference continues the previous macroeconomic policy direction of being "more proactive and effective," with an emphasis on fiscal policy being more active and monetary policy remaining moderately loose [3][7]. - There is a shift in focus from external shocks to strengthening domestic economic coordination and managing expectations [8][9]. Structural and Institutional Arrangements - The conference highlights the importance of structural and institutional arrangements, including the establishment of a unified national market and improvements in the local tax system [9][10]. - Emphasis is placed on creating a fair competitive environment and reducing local government interference in market operations [10][11]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on increasing spending intensity and optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures to address local government debt risks [14][15]. - The conference suggests maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% and increasing the scale of new debt to support economic stability [16][17]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [21][22]. - Structural tools will be enhanced to support key sectors such as consumption, technology, and elderly care [21][22]. Domestic Demand and Investment - The conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, with plans to implement a "rural residents' income increase plan" to boost consumption [23][24]. - Investment policies will shift from merely improving efficiency to stabilizing investment levels, with a focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage [26][27]. Capital Market Reforms - The conference calls for deepening capital market reforms to enhance its functions and support national strategies, including improving inclusivity for innovative enterprises [28][29]. - There is a focus on increasing the quality of listed companies and promoting long-term investment to stabilize the market [31][32]. Real Estate Market Stability - The conference aims to stabilize the real estate market through targeted measures, including controlling new land supply and promoting the conversion of unsold properties into affordable housing [33][34]. - Emphasis is placed on high-quality housing construction and the establishment of a new development model for the real estate sector [35][36]. Innovation and Industry Development - The conference stresses the importance of innovation, with a focus on strengthening the role of enterprises in driving technological advancements and fostering new growth drivers [37][38]. - Specific industries will be targeted for high-quality development, including traditional sectors transitioning to higher standards and emerging industries expanding their scale [38]. Public Services and Livelihood - The conference reiterates the principle of prioritizing people's livelihoods, with specific measures to enhance employment, education, healthcare, and social security systems [39][40]. - Policies will be introduced to support flexible employment and improve social insurance coverage for new employment forms [39].

Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and related meetings, focusing on economic and social development for the upcoming year [2] Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The government aims to stimulate domestic demand, promote consumption and investment, and ensure a positive interaction between supply and demand [2] - There is a commitment to integrate and serve the national unified market, fostering innovation and deepening the integration of technology and industry [2] - The plan includes the development of a modern industrial cluster known as "965" and the promotion of new productive forces tailored to local conditions [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Logistics - The meeting highlighted the need to leverage Wuhan's advantages as a comprehensive transportation hub to develop a global international postal and express delivery hub [3] - The strategy includes the coordinated development of Tianhe Airport and Huahu Airport as dual hubs for international air cargo and passenger transport [3] Group 3: Food and Drug Safety - There is a strong emphasis on implementing stringent safety regulations across the food and drug supply chain, enhancing collaborative efforts, and improving smart regulatory efficiency [3] - The initiative aims to establish a comprehensive traceability system for food and drugs to ensure public safety [3] Group 4: Environmental Management - The meeting called for the establishment of a non-site regulatory enforcement system focused on automatic monitoring of pollution sources to enhance ecological governance [3]

行业周报 | 有色金属 2026 经济开局定调+美联储降息扩表，看好有色景气上行 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.12.8 -2025.12.14） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：政治局会议定调明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策 2026 年经济工作的政策基调已经明确，会议指出，做好明年经济 工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协 同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜 发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接 影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点 解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精准有效的政策组合拳， 激发经济增长新动能。 本周核心关注二：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表 12 月 11 日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25 个百分点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。其中声明新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for deep reforms to address "involution" competition in the steel industry, with the central government advocating for a unified national market and stricter export management [2]. - The introduction of export licenses for certain steel products is expected to limit the export of low-value-added products, encouraging steel companies to upgrade to higher-end products [2]. - In the short term, low-value-added products may face adjustments, while the long-term trend will see an increase in the export proportion of high-end products, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 12, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,250 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week [7][16]. - The report notes a decline in production and inventory levels, with total steel production at 8.06 million tons, a decrease of 227,300 tons week-on-week [7][16]. International Steel Market - The report highlights stable price increases in the U.S. and European steel markets, with U.S. hot-rolled coil prices at 985 USD/ton, up 10 USD from the previous week [28][30]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices have shown a mixed trend, with some prices remaining stable while others have decreased slightly [33]. - The report indicates a decline in scrap steel prices, with the current price at 2,080 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY from the previous week [33]. Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024 and a PE ratio of 18 [3].

五是民生保障更加有力。育儿补贴、学前一年免费教育等政策相继落地实施，社会保障水平持续提高， 粮食产量连续两年突破1.4万亿斤，社会大局保持和谐稳定。 ——权威人士解读中央经济工作会议精神 中国发展改革报社记者 付朝欢 12月13日，在以"贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，以高质量发展为'十五五'开好局"为主题的2025-2026 中国经济年会上，多位权威人士对刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议精神进行了解读。 中央财经委员会办公室分管日常工作的副主任、中央农村工作领导小组办公室主任韩文秀表示，今年是 中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，是很不平凡的一年。全年经济社会发展主要预期目标将顺利 实现，"十四五"即将圆满收官。 机构预测：2025年中国经济增长5%左右 "一年来，我国经济顶压前行，向新向优发展，展现出了强大的韧性和活力。"韩文秀表示，一是主要经 济指标表现好于预期。许多机构预测，今年全年经济增长5%左右，我国仍然是全球经济增长的最大引 擎。就业形势总体稳定，外贸较快增长，出口多元化成效明显。 二是现代化产业体系建设加快推进。新质生产力稳步发展，人工智能、生物医药、机器人等研发和应用 处在全球第一梯队。 三是改革 ...

人民日报北京12月13日电 12月12日至13日，全国发展和改革工作会议在北京召开。会议强调，要深刻 领会习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上提出的"五个必须"的重要内涵，准确把握明年经济工作的总体 要求，扎扎实实做好明年发展改革重点工作。 统筹谋划推动人口高质量发展，加快完善适应人口变化的公共资源配置机制，加强教育资源前瞻布局。 综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能。完善重点行业产能治理和重大基础设施调控，大力培育壮大 新兴产业和未来产业，培育壮大若干新兴支柱产业，深化拓展"人工智能+"行动，补齐科技服务业短 板，完善低空经济产业生态，深入推进数字经济高质量发展。 进一步全面深化改革。研究制定全国统一大市场建设条例，协同推进"准入、场景、要素"一体化改革。 持续抓好招商引资、招标投标等方面重点问题整治，坚决破除各类壁垒障碍。更大力度发展民营经济， 大力推动民营经济促进法配套制度建设。 深入扩大高水平对外开放。稳步扩大制度型开放，统筹做好"引进来"和"走出去"，推动共建"一带一 路"高质量发展。 以"双碳"为引领加快推动全面绿色转型。稳步实施碳排放总量和强度双控制度，完善配套制度，强化评 价考核，严控新增"两高 ...

一切伟大成就都是接续奋斗的结果，一切伟大事业都需要在继往开来中推进。 2025年，中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年。 今年以来，国际环境变乱交织，我国发展经历转型调整的挑战，经济稳定运行压力有所上升。 面对国内外形势深刻复杂的变化，全党全国勠力同心、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动 高质量发展，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 "我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活力。"10日第一次全体会议上，习近平总书 记对今年经济工作作出全面总结。 这是一份难能可贵、成色十足的成绩单—— 运行总体平稳，稳中有进，预计全年经济总量将达到140万亿元左右，就业总体稳定，外贸较快增 长，出口多元化成效明显； "十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"正待开启序幕之际，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举 行。 习近平总书记在会上发表重要讲话，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工 作，驾驭中国经济航船破浪前行。 锚定"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步，以习近平同志为核心的 党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、勇往直前，奋力书写中国经济的崭新篇章。 ...

12 月 13 日，中国国际经济交流中心举办 2025 — 2026 中国经济年会。 国家发展改革委副秘书长肖渭明在年会上发表《贯彻落实中央经济工作会议部署 扎实做好明年经济发展重点 工作》的主旨演讲。肖渭明表示， 明年要全方位扩大国内需求 ，持续破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设的卡点堵 点等。在优化营商环境部分，他谈到，清理政府欠款是目前改进提升营商环境的最大动作。单个合同或单个项 目欠款 50 万元以下的，到 2025 年底要全部清理完毕。全面推进加快加力清理拖欠企业账款的行动也是今后 几年我国持续优化营商环境的重要举措之一。 中央经济工作会议指出，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。肖渭明表示，这两个周期各 有所指，"逆周期"表明现在经济有下行压力，所以要采取有效的手段，"跨周期"说明现在一些结构性的矛盾问 题，不是短期内能够有效解决的。因此，要短长结合，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 强化政策预期管理，加强宏观政策和重大改革举措的协同配合，扎实开展各类经济政策和非经济政策、存量政 策和增量政策的宏观政策取向一致性评估。 "改进提升营商环境，现在最大的一个动作是清理地方政府的欠 ...

"中央经济工作会议将'坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场'置于明年重点任务首位。"华泰期货董事长赵 昌涛表示，期货行业将以此为导向，充分发挥期货市场在资源配置和风险管理中的专业功能，聚焦现代 化产业体系的风险管理需求，推动业务模式创新与服务升级，助力企业提升经营韧性、稳定市场供应， 为增强国内大循环内生动力提供扎实的金融工具支撑。 中信建投期货董事长王广学表示，将坚定融入国家战略，聚焦主责主业，更好发挥期货市场功能，丰富 产品与服务供给，帮助实体企业管理风险，成为实体企业和金融机构风险管理最可靠的合作伙伴和专业 管家。 中央经济工作会议于12月10日至11日在北京举行，会议全面总结了当前经济工作，深刻分析了国内外形 势，强调要更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，因地制宜发展新质生产力， 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，为明年我国经济发展指明了方向、明确了要求。 多家期货公司高管表示，期货行业将深刻把握会议确定的工作总基调，立足期货和衍生品专业优势，将 政策导向转化为"服务实体、创新发展、守牢底线"的务实行动，为经济社会高质量发展贡献坚实的期货 力量。 服务全国统一大市场建设，筑牢实体经济风险"防火 ...