Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a range between 4% and 4.25% due to a softening labor market [3][4] - Payroll job gains have slowed significantly to an average of 29,000 per month over the past three months, indicating a weaker job market [3][4] - The Fed forecasts two more quarter-point cuts in interest rates this year, with a projected federal funds rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025 [4] Group 2 - The Conference Board predicts GDP growth will be 1.6% this year, impacted by high tariffs and a decline in new orders and consumer expectations [5][6] - Unemployment is expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.5% by the end of this year, before easing slightly in the following years [5] - The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, is projected to decrease from 3.1% this year to 2.6% next year, reaching the Fed's 2% target by 2028 [5]

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 and released policymakers' quarterly forecast of economic conditions that shows the potential outlook for further rate cuts, as well as inflation and the labor market. The 25-basis-point cut lowered the benchmark federal funds rate to a new range of 4% to 4.25%, after rates were held steady at the first five meetings of this year amid economic uncertainty regarding the labor market and inflation amid tariff shifts and immigration ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 4-4.25% while continuing quantitative tightening (QT) [4] - The Fed's economic growth forecast for 2023 was slightly raised to 1.6% from 1.4% in June, with a 2024 forecast of 1.8% [6] - The median policy rate projection was adjusted down to 3.6%, down from 3.9% in March and June [6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - U.S. GDP growth slowed from 2.5% last year to 1.5% in the first half of 2023, primarily due to a decline in consumer spending [6] - Inflation expectations remained stable, with PCE inflation at 3.0% in June and September, compared to 2.7% in March [6] - The unemployment rate forecast remained unchanged at 4.5% for June and September, indicating a slight increase but still at historical lows [6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The proposal for a 50 basis point rate cut did not gain widespread support, reflecting caution among committee members regarding inflation risks [8] - The Fed's current policy shift is seen as a response to softening labor market data, with a focus on managing risks rather than responding to an economic downturn [8] - There is a perceived risk of the Fed being slow to cut rates further, with two more rate cuts expected within the year [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "dot plot" indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, lowering the policy rate range to 4.00%-4.25%, which is more dovish than previous expectations, suggesting a relief from stagflation risks [1] - The latest economic forecast shows a year-end inflation rate median of 3%, above the 2% target but unchanged from the previous quarter; the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.5%, and economic growth is slightly increased from 1.4% to 1.6% [1] - The Federal Reserve is shifting its view on the temporary impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, prioritizing the prevention of economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which provides a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - On the day of reporting, the Shanghai gold price fell by 1.78%, closing at 824.1 yuan per gram [3] - According to GF Futures, the market interpreted the Federal Reserve's rate decision as neutral, with the dollar index rebounding after a decline; since September, precious metal prices have rapidly surged and reached new highs, indicating overbought conditions [4] - The outlook suggests that with increasing risks in the U.S. job market, the Federal Reserve's policy path exhibits dual characteristics of "strengthened expectations and compromised independence," which continues to suppress the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [4]

（文章来源：新华财经） 反之，他们补充称，若失业率突然飙升，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）或采取更激进的降息措施。 巴克莱预计，在2026年FOMC将维持利率不变，直到出现月度通胀数据放缓的迹象，并确信通胀正回归 2%目标的轨道。 新华财经北京9月18日电巴克莱经济学家指出，美联储利率路径的风险正倾向于推迟降息。他们在研究 报告中表示，若2026年初通胀数据持续显示价格强劲上涨，或关税政策在失业率温和上升背景下推动非 商品领域价格上涨，则可能出现这种情况。 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision comes amid signs of slowing economic activity, job growth, and rising inflation, indicating a challenging balance between inflation and employment [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the labor market, stating that lowering rates could assist those struggling to find jobs [1] Economic Forecasts - Federal Reserve officials predict a median real GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and an inflation rate of 3% [2] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, the dollar index fell before rebounding, and gold prices experienced fluctuations [3] - Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year and an additional 125 basis points next year [3] - Economic risks are highlighted, with concerns about the U.S. government's credit reliability rather than private debt being the primary issue [3]

新华财经纽约9月17日电（记者徐静）美国联邦储备委员会17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继 2024年三次降息后再次降息。 当记者质疑美联储的独立性，鲍威尔表示："我们根据即将公布的数据开展工作，从不考虑其他任何事 情。我们现在的工作和以往一模一样。" 鲍威尔坦言，对于政策制定者来说，在不断上升的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场之间取得平衡，是一个截然 不同的困境。 至于下一步行动，鲍威尔表示，美联储将继续根据公布的数据、不断变化的经济前景和风险平衡来确定 适当的货币政策立场。"我们处于一会一议阶段……我们没有预设的路径。"鲍威尔强调，美联储"等 待"降息是正确的，不需要"迅速采取行动"。 美联储宣布降息后，当天美国股市收盘涨跌互现；美元指数跌至2022年2月以来的新低96.22；金价震荡 下跌。 富国银行投资研究所高级全球市场策略师斯科特·雷恩表示："联邦公开市场委员会的降息恰到好处，几 乎完全符合市场的预期。" 美联储货币政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在会后发表的声明中表示："近期指标显示， 上半 ...

本文字数：2787，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（18日）凌晨，美联储公布9月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以11-1的方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至4.00%-4.25%， 暗示年内可能继续降息两次。这也是去年12月以来，FOMC重启宽松周期，周二刚刚进入美联储的新任理事米兰投出反对票，希望降息50个基点。 2025.09. 18 美联储主席鲍威尔亮相新闻发布会（来源：美联储官网直播画面） 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示："在某种程度上，你可以将此次降息视为一次风险管理性质的降息。"他进一步补充称，"短期内，通胀面临上 行风险，就业面临下行风险，这对货币政策制定者而言是一个具有挑战性的局面。" 最新公布的经济预期概要（SEP）中，美联储上调了今年经济增速预期0.2个百分点至1.6%，2026年上修0.2个百分点至1.8%，2027年上修0.1个百分 点至1.9%。 通胀压力从明年开始有所上升。美联储预计2025年核心PCE增速3.1%，与6月预测持平，2026年上修0.2个百分点至2.6%，2027年维持在2.1%。整 体PCE调整类似，今年维持在3.0%，2 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year [1][2] - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, with job growth weakening and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][8] - Powell described the rate cut as a risk management measure, highlighting upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [5][12] Group 2 - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%, with similar upward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [5][6] - Inflation pressures are expected to rise starting next year, with core PCE inflation projected at 3.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 [5][6] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% in 2025, with slight downward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [7][8] Group 3 - The updated dot plot shows significant internal divisions within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for aggressive cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [10][13] - Powell emphasized that the Fed is committed to maintaining its independence from political influence, despite external pressures for more aggressive actions [12][14] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where further discussions on monetary policy will take place [14]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision reflects concerns about the risks in the U.S. labor market and the challenges posed by rising inflation [3] - Recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity growth during the first half of the year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [3] Economic Projections - The median projections from the dot plot indicate that FOMC officials expect two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025 [4][7] - Economic growth expectations have been slightly raised, with GDP growth projected at 1.6% for 2025 and 1.8% for 2026, compared to previous estimates [9] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upward, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2026 raised to 2.6% [9][10]