Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, signaling that interest rate cuts are not imminent and the policy remains in a vigilant "wait-and-see" mode [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Statement and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a recent slowdown in inflation data, which is seen as a preliminary recognition of potential easing inflation pressures, but emphasized that more positive evidence is needed to confirm a return to the 2% inflation target [3]. - Chairman Powell stated that it is not yet time to consider rate cuts, indicating that such decisions require "more time" and "more conclusive data" [3][5]. - The Fed noted that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, with inflation still too high [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, the US dollar index rose by 0.55%, reflecting its safe-haven appeal, while the US 10-year Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, leading to a significant increase in yields [4]. - Market speculation regarding the timing of the Fed's first rate cut has shifted towards December, indicating that the current high-interest-rate environment will persist for a considerable time, affecting corporate financing costs and consumer credit [5]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Powell highlighted the impact of trade policies, noting that higher tariff rates are beginning to affect the prices of certain goods, but the overall impact on economic activity and inflation requires further observation [5].

来源：第一财经 近期，美国总统特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁要解雇鲍威尔，并批评美联储"缺乏行动勇气"。30 日早些时候，特朗普再次喊话美联储应该降息，表示维持高利率正在伤害民众。 2025.08.01 据央视新闻，当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普评价鲍威尔，称他是一位糟糕的美联储主席，任命鲍威尔担任美 联储主席是一个错误。 美国联邦储备委员会30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间 不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 本文字数：368，阅读时长大约1分钟 ...

Group 1 - The resilient U.S. labor market is now the primary determinant of monetary policy, indicating that strong employment data in July could eliminate expectations for a rate cut in September and reduce the likelihood of further easing this year [1] - Powell emphasized that the next steps for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will depend on overall economic data, acknowledging reasons for easing but highlighting the importance of the unemployment rate [1][2] - The unemployment rate has remained stable between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year, suggesting the economy is at full employment, making it difficult to justify a rate cut [2] Group 2 - Following the FOMC decision, market reactions included a drop in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a strengthening dollar, reflecting investors' interpretation of Powell's signals [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now seen as a coin toss, indicating a shift in market expectations towards only one rate cut this year [2] - Powell's comments on inflation, with core CPI at 2.9% and core PCE at 2.8%, support a moderate tightening stance [2] Group 3 - Price risks remain due to the delayed effects of tariffs, with Powell suggesting that if tariffs continue to push prices higher, the Fed may need to wait until the impact subsides before easing, potentially delaying any rate cuts until next year [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly decreased, with projections dropping from over 130 basis points to around 35 basis points for the year [3][4] Group 4 - The futures curve indicates that by May next year, when Powell's term ends, only 65 basis points of rate cuts are priced in [4] - While it is unlikely that there will be no rate cuts during Powell's remaining term, it is not impossible [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him as a poor choice for the position and calling for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate public financial strain [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were held steady, aligning with market expectations [2]. - Trump's repeated calls for the Federal Reserve to implement substantial rate cuts reflect his belief that high rates are detrimental to the public [2]. Group 2: Political Commentary - Trump has publicly threatened to dismiss Powell and criticized the Federal Reserve for lacking the courage to take decisive action [2].

尽管周五（8月1日）国际原油价格波动有限，但市场仍深陷于美国最新关税政策与地缘政治风险的双重 影响中。截至收盘，布伦特原油期货微涨4美分至每桶71.74美元，涨幅0.06%；美国WTI原油期货仅上 浮1美分至69.27美元，几乎持平。 本周油价显著反弹，供应担忧主导情绪 尽管日内交投清淡，本周油价仍录得可观涨幅：布伦特原油累计上涨4.9%，WTI原油涨幅达6.4%。推 动涨势的核心因素在于美国政府本周早些时候释放的信号——威胁对继续采购俄罗斯原油的国家实施次 级制裁，尤其针对亚洲主要买家。这一表态直接引发市场对全球供应链稳定性的担忧，俄罗斯每日约 275万桶的海运石油出口可能面临冲击。 摩根大通在周四发布的报告中指出："与往届政府类似，特朗普政府或发现全面制裁全球第二大石油出 口国（俄罗斯）的可行性极低，否则油价可能因供应骤减而大幅飙升。" 新关税政策或压制需求，通胀与美联储政策成焦点 市场周五将更多注意力转向特朗普政府当日签署的关税行政令。该命令对加拿大、印度等贸易伙伴加征 10%至41%的关税，政策将于8月1日起生效。分析认为，若关税全面落地，进口商品成本上升或抑制消 费者支出与工业活动，进而削弱石油需求 ...

周五晚20:30，美国将公布7月非农就业报告。此前，就在周四凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在维持利率不变后表示，就业市场明显存在下行风险，需要密切关 注。 经济学家预测，此次数据将显示劳动力市场进一步降温，因为美国政府在关税与移民政策上的不确定性，企业招聘持续受到影响。 市场预计，美国7月非农新增人口将录得11万人，失业率将稍微上升至4.2%，平均时薪年率和月率料将录得3.8%和0.3%。 市场预期：非农11万+失业率4.2% 市场预期共识显示，7月新增非农就业人口预计为11万人，较6月的14.7万人略有放缓，但仍远高于大约8万人的"供需平衡"水平。市场预测区间依然很宽， 从零增长到17万人不等。此外，前两次非农数据的修正情况将受到密切关注，因为最近几个月修正值多为下调。 预计7月失业率将回升至4.2%，此前在6月降至4.1%，主要是因为6月劳动力参与率意外下滑。7月参与率可能略有回升，按四舍五入仍为62.3%，但这种回升 足以让失业率上升0.1个百分点。 4.2%的失业率并非令人担忧的水平，且距离美联储年底4.5%的预测仍有差距。随着不确定性持续存在，未来企业是削减工时还是裁员，将成为值得关注的 问题。 7月平均时 ...

Kitco Metals网站：短期看涨情绪可能掩盖了黄金市场潜在的结构性疲软 五矿期货：美国经济与通胀数据具备韧性贵金属价格持续承压 新湖期货：黄金总体呈现震荡局势继续等待美联储降息指引 光大期货：美元显现触底回升态势黄金表现继续弱化 Zaner Metals：避险情绪升温给金价带来支撑 【机构观点分析】 五矿期货表示，鲍威尔在议息会议中表态强硬，几乎拒绝透露任何关于九月议息会议货币政策路径的信 息，他认为后续的货币政策路径取决于经济数据，关键在于"把握时机"。议息会议后市场降低了对于联 储宽松政策的预期，CME利率观测器显示市场预计年内联储仅将在10月议息会议中进行25个基点的降 息操作，低于议息会议前定价的两次。联储货币政策表态转鹰派，贵金属价格短期将面临较强回调压 力，但基于后续就业数据以及关键票委表态所具备的不确定性，金银策略上建议暂时观望。 新湖期货表示，根据世界黄金协会最新公布的数据显示，全球央行二季度购金速度有所放缓，但购金量 仍高于过往平均，另外，二季度我国黄金ETF创下有史以来最强劲的季度表现，推动全球黄金投资需求 上行。近期，受累于美联储降息预期后移叠加关税给市场带来的不确定性整体回落，黄 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on July 31, with an opening price of $3290.42 per ounce, a peak of $3314.83, a low of $3268.02, and a closing price of $3295.49 [1] Economic Indicators - The Chicago PMI for July recorded at 47.1, surpassing market expectations of 42 and the previous value of 40.4 [2][4] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 26 were reported at 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000 and slightly above the previous week's 217,000 [2] - The core PCE price index for June showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.7% [2][5] - Personal spending in June rose by 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%, and improved from a previous decline of -0.1% [2] Trade Developments - The White House announced that President Trump will maintain the global minimum tariff rate at 10%, disregarding previous suggestions to raise it to 15% or higher [5] - An executive order was signed to increase tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, excluding goods covered by the USMCA agreement [5] Gold Market Insights - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a decrease in holdings by 0.86 tons, bringing the total to 954.51 tons [6] - Market expectations indicate a 61.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September, with a 38.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a rebound, maintaining a range around $3299 before reaching a high of $3315, followed by a slight decline [10] - Short-term indicators suggest a potential downward trend, with resistance levels identified at the 60-day moving average [10] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on maintaining a range-bound trading strategy [11]

美国联邦储备委员会30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员 杨子荣：通常情况下，美联储只有在美国就业市 场显著恶化或通胀压力明显缓解的情况下，才会考虑降息。而从近期的数据来看，一方面2025年6月， 美国失业率下降至4.1%，非农部门新增就业人数达到14.7万，就业市场依然保持了相对的稳健。另一方 面，美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，仍然高于美联储2%的长期目标。值得注意的是近期加征关税对美国部 分商品价格的影响已经开始显现，未来通胀压力很可能进一步上升。综合来看，当前美联储不具备降息 的紧迫性和必要性，而且在特朗普关税政策及其影响高度不确定的情况下，美联储选择继续观察是合理 的一个选择。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员 杨子荣：美联储坚持不降息，这很可能导致美联 储与白宫的紧张关系持续升级。接下来不排除特朗普可能进一步施压美联储，甚至通过人事安排等手段 影响其政策取向。如果美联储迫于政治压力提前降息，短期内可能刺激美国的消费和投资 ...

证券时报记者许孝如 随着热门品种持续回调，国内期货市场整体降温趋势明显。7月31日，玻璃、硅铁触及跌停，焦煤封跌 停板；三大光伏产业链品种也深度调整，此前较强势的多晶硅遭遇多头资金大撤退，主力合约一度逼近 跌停。 值得注意的是，文华商品板块资金流出147亿元，商品市场情绪迅速回落。有机构认为，多数商品的估 值或将重新回归基本面。 一品种以跌停收盘 两品种盘中一度跌停 在"反内卷"政策驱动下，从光伏产业链到黑色系，多个商品经历了一轮大涨行情后，开启高位震荡，等 待政策预期的进一步指引。7月30日，商品市场情绪迅速回落，前期涨势最猛的光伏产业链和黑色系品 种大面积调整。 当地时间7月30日，美联储议息会议决定，维持基准利率在4.25%～4.50%不变，此为第五次按兵不动。 值得注意的是，会议声明未修改通胀措辞，认为上半年经济增长放缓，前景不确定性仍然居高。在随后 的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，还没有就9月会议作出任何决定，无法在6周后根据6月点阵 图来作出决策。鲍威尔的发言使得投资者降低了9月降息预期，这对全球商品市场也带来了影响。 据上海有色网（SMM）数据，7月多晶硅排产规划并无较大改变，总体产量预计 ...