贵金属日报 2026-01-26 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.66 %，报 1121.16 元/克，沪银涨 6.32 %，报 25650.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5023.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 104.73 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.24%，美元指数报 97.17 ； 美国三季度 PCE 物价指数季度环比年化值为 2.8%，低于预期的 3.5%，三季度核心 PCE 物价指 数季度环比年化值为 2.9%，符合预期及前值。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比值为 2.8%，符 合预期。美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 为 51.9，低于预期的 52，1 月标普全球服务业 PMI 为 52.5，低于预期的 52.8，综合 PMI 为 52.8，低于预期的 53。当前 CME 利率观测器显示，当前 市场定价联储今年分别在 6 月以及 10 月进行 25 个基点的降息操作。 【策略观点】 金银价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of gold and silver were extremely strong, hitting new all - time highs. The price increase is driven by concerns about the stability of the US dollar credit and the Fed's monetary policy, and the upward trend has a solid macro - driving force. It is recommended to go long on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Summary**: This week, domestic markets saw Shanghai Gold rise 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram and Shanghai Silver rise 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram by Friday's daytime close. COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.24%, and the US dollar index fell 1.88% to 97.51 [11]. - **Dollar Credit Impact**: The "island - grabbing storm" of the US regarding Greenland has severely damaged the US dollar's credit. European pension funds and a Canadian teacher retirement fund announced the reduction of US Treasury holdings. The long - term US Treasury demand has weakened, and gold, as a substitute for US Treasury bonds, has increased in allocation value. Poland's central bank approved a 150 - ton gold purchase plan [11]. - **Inflation and Economic Data**: The US Q3 PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%. The core PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.9%, in line with expectations. The US January S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52, and the service PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected 52.8. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and October [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The strong performance of gold and silver prices reflects concerns about the US dollar's credit and the Fed's monetary policy stability. The tightness of the silver spot market cannot be alleviated by the outflow of COMEX inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the Shanghai Gold main contract's reference range at 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram and the Shanghai Silver main contract's at 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Changes**: This week, Shanghai Gold rose 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce [30]. - **Position Changes**: Shanghai Gold's total open interest rose 4.9% to 366,300 lots, and COMEX Gold's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.1% to 528,000 lots. Shanghai Silver's total open interest fell 0.36% to 708,800 lots, and COMEX Silver's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.33% to 152,000 lots [33][36]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of January 23, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the LSEG statistical scope were 2377.2 tons, and the total holdings of foreign - market silver ETFs were 29634.5 tons [41]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yields**: The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds are presented in the figures. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is also shown in relation to the real interest rate and inflation expectations [52][55]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's balance sheet shows changes in assets and liabilities. For example, the Fed's holdings of securities increased by 19.77 billion US dollars, and the total liabilities increased by 28.79 billion US dollars [56]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: The US December CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, in line with expectations, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The core CPI year - on - year value was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [64]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending January 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [67]. - **PMI and PPI**: The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [70]. - **New Home Data**: The annualized value of new home starts in the US in October was 1.246 million units, lower than the expected 1.325 million units and the previous value of 1.291 million units. The annualized value of building permits was 1.412 million units, higher than the expected 1.35 million units [73]. 5. Precious Metals Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The outer - market gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) and the inner - market gold basis (AuT+D - SHFE gold) are presented, showing their respective changes [12]. - **Silver Basis**: The outer - market silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) and the inner - market silver basis (AgT+D - SHFE silver) show their changes [12]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: The internal - external spreads of gold (Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold) and silver (Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver) are presented in the figures [83][85]. 6. Precious Metals Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The combined silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, are presented in the figures. The COMEX and LBMA silver inventories also show their trends [90][93]. - **Gold Inventories**: The COMEX and LBMA gold inventories are presented in the figures, showing their trends [95][97].

Market Overview - On January 23, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.58% at 49,098.71 points, the S&P 500 up 0.03% at 6,915.61 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.28% at 23,501.24 points. For the week, the Dow Jones fell 0.53%, the S&P 500 fell 0.35%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.06% [2] - European major indices also showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX up 0.18% at 24,900.71 points, France's CAC40 down 0.07% at 8,143.05 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.07% at 10,143.44 points. For the week, the DAX fell 1.57%, the CAC40 fell 1.4%, and the FTSE 100 fell 0.9% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.26%, with notable movements in popular Chinese stocks: Tencent Music rose over 4%, Yamafin Sports rose over 3%, and New Oriental rose over 2% [3] Intel Performance - Intel's stock plummeted over 17% following a disappointing earnings forecast, with a post-market decline exceeding 1%. The company reported a full-year revenue of $52.9 billion for 2025, unchanged from the previous year, and a fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, with a 9% year-over-year growth in data center and AI business [5] - CEO Pat Gelsinger expressed confidence in the role of CPUs in the AI era and highlighted the launch of products based on Intel's most advanced semiconductor process technology, Intel 18A. The company aims to enhance supply to meet strong customer demand [5] - Intel expects first-quarter 2026 revenue to be between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with CFO David Zinsner noting that despite industry-wide supply shortages, the fourth-quarter revenue, gross margin, and earnings per share exceeded expectations [5] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a new high, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.42% to $4,983.10 per ounce, marking an 8.44% increase for the week. COMEX silver futures rose 7.15% to $103.26 per ounce, also reaching a historical peak with a weekly increase of 16.63% [7] - Analysts from Huaxi Securities noted that gold prices have been on a significant upward trend over the past three years, driven by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical conflicts, and concerns over U.S. dollar credit. Central banks' continued gold purchases provide strong support for gold prices [7] - Shenwan Hongyuan's analysis suggests that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue, with short-term focus on geopolitical events that could affect market sentiment [7] Oil Market - The main U.S. oil contract rose 3.23% to $61.28 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 3.27%. The Brent oil contract increased by 3.17% to $65.35 per barrel, with a weekly rise of 2.94% [8] - According to Xinda Futures, the core issue in oil price trends revolves around the divergence between OPEC+ policy and expectations from authoritative institutions. OPEC+ maintains an optimistic outlook, anticipating a tightening market in 2026, while the IEA warns of significant oversupply [8] - Demand concerns persist, with the IEA indicating weak demand from major economies and low consumer confidence, despite marginal benefits from China's economic growth. The first quarter is traditionally a low-demand season, leading to significant inventory pressure [9]

转自：智通财经 当地时间周四（22日），美国总统特朗普表示，他已经完成了对下一任美联储主席候选人的所有面试， 并重申他心中已有了人选。 "我很快就会告诉你们。我有一个我认为非常合适的人选，但我不会透露是谁。他是一位备受尊敬、非 常有名的人，我认为他会做得非常好。"他周四告诉记者。 众所周知，最终入围"决赛圈"的有：前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、国家经济委 员会主席凯文·哈西特以及贝莱德固定收益主管里克·里德。 哈西特一度被视为领跑者，但特朗普后来表示，他可能更倾向于让哈西特继续担任白宫要职。他在前一 日采访中表示，最后一位接受采访的里德"令人印象深刻"，并对所有候选人都给予了高度评价。 鲍威尔将于2026年5月结束美联储主席任期。自特朗普去年上任以来，一直对鲍威尔持强烈批评态度， 多次抨击他降息速度太慢。 前一日，特朗普在达沃斯接受采访时，对目前还有多少候选人在考虑之列给出了模棱两可的信息。负责 遴选工作的财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，目前有四位候选人入围，特朗普可能会在本月底前宣布最终 人选。 "我们得看看会发生什么，"特朗普说："他总是太迟了，总是太迟了，尽管利率一直在下降。" 特朗普还 ...

Group 1 - The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data from the US aligns with market expectations, indicating no substantial impact on the current monetary policy framework [1] - The overall PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, with core PCE also at 2.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, consistent with market forecasts [1] - Energy prices have temporarily increased, pushing short-term inflation readings higher, while food prices remain stable, indicating a lack of substantial change in the inflation structure [1] Group 2 - The third quarter GDP final value shows an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, the fastest in nearly two years, with initial jobless claims remaining low, reinforcing the view that the economy has not significantly cooled [2] - There is a notable imbalance in growth dynamics, with high-income groups and large enterprises being the main support for consumption and investment, while middle and low-income households face more significant constraints [2] - Market pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path is stabilizing, with investors generally accepting the view of maintaining high short-term interest rates while continuing to digest potential rate cut space in the medium term [2] Group 3 - Uncertainty in policy due to Trump's fluctuating statements on trade, fiscal issues, and central bank independence has become a variable that the market cannot ignore, increasing volatility and interest in non-dollar assets [3] - Recent volatility in the Japanese bond market has brought the "widow trade" back into focus, with discussions around yen financing arbitrage and global interest rate linkage risks [3] - The November PCE inflation data has not shaken the Federal Reserve's short-term policy anchor, with economic resilience and persistent inflation leading to a continued wait-and-see approach in monetary policy [3]

Group 1 - The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data shows a slight increase in inflation levels, but overall trends remain within market expectations, not significantly impacting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [1] - The PCE price index for November rose by 2.8% year-on-year, with core PCE also recording a 2.8% increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - Despite a slowdown in personal income growth, consumer spending recorded a 0.5% month-on-month increase, indicating resilience in demand [1] Group 2 - The third quarter GDP final value indicates an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, the highest in nearly two years, while initial jobless claims remain low, reinforcing the view that the economy has not significantly cooled [2] - There is an uneven growth performance, with high-income groups and large enterprises being the main support for consumption and investment, while middle and low-income households face more significant adjustment challenges [2] - Market pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path is stabilizing, with investors generally accepting the baseline assumption of a "high plateau" for short-term policy [2] Group 3 - Trump's fluctuating statements on trade policy, fiscal direction, and central bank independence have reintroduced policy uncertainty as a risk variable that needs reassessment [3] - The recent volatility in the Japanese bond market has brought the "widow trade" back into institutional focus, with yen financing arbitrage and global interest rate linkage risks becoming discussion points [3] - Overall, the November PCE inflation data has not shaken the Federal Reserve's short-term policy anchoring, with economic resilience and inflation persistence coexisting, keeping monetary policy in a wait-and-see mode [3]

Group 1: U.S. and Greenland Island Dispute - The U.S. President Trump expressed intentions to negotiate the purchase of Greenland, emphasizing its strategic importance to U.S. national security [3][8] - Trump criticized Denmark for its perceived ingratitude regarding Greenland and stated that no other country could ensure its security [3] - The international response included strong opposition from European leaders, particularly the UK, asserting that the future of Greenland should be determined by its people and Denmark [8] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 418 points and the Nasdaq index increasing by over 1% [5] - Notable increases in Chinese concept stocks were observed, with Baidu rising by 7.12% and iQIYI by 7.03% [5][8] - The market reacted to Trump's comments, with gold prices initially dropping by $40 before stabilizing at $4849.49 per ounce [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Trump announced plans to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair, indicating dissatisfaction with current Chair Powell's timing on interest rate adjustments [7] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged during the January meeting, contrary to previous expectations of potential rate cuts [7] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, with Trump criticizing its failure to lower rates and the Justice Department threatening investigations into the Fed [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Performance - Precious metals continue to rise, with silver experiencing a four-day increase, and Hunan Silver rising over 8% [1] - Gold prices reached a record high of $4,967.37 per ounce, while silver surpassed $96 per ounce, marking significant gains [3] - The China Securities Company suggests that continued interest rate cuts by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, could support gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Historical patterns indicate that a substantial shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a comprehensive improvement in the U.S. economy are critical signals for market direction [6] - The company recommends maintaining an overweight position in gold and Chinese stocks while considering increased commodity allocations to hedge against potential economic overheating [6] Group 3: Industrial Metals Outlook - Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions are expected to enhance the reliability of physical assets like industrial metals, leading to potential valuation increases [7] - Copper's long-term supply constraints are driven by insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades, which may lead to a structural shortage in the global copper market [10] - The aluminum market is also expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic production facing constraints and positive demand factors emerging [10] Group 4: Performance of Non-Ferrous Mining Index - The non-ferrous mining ETF has shown a nearly 15% annualized growth over the past decade, reflecting strong price elasticity in response to rising metal prices [11] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry saw a 41.43% year-on-year increase in net profit, with a significant rise in the third quarter [11][12] - The non-ferrous mining index has outperformed other indices, with a one-year increase of 128.68%, indicating a strong correlation with commodity price cycles [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and consumption shows a "K-shaped" characteristic [14]. - In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, with service retail sales growing faster. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - In the short term, risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium term, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, non - ferrous metals, gold, and silver [14]. Summary by Directory Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 22, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4719.4, down 0.26; the SSE 50 futures price was 3061.2, down 0.61; the CSI 500 futures price was 8400, up 0.25; the CSI 1000 futures price was 8292.6, up 0.56 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.408, down 0.02; the 5 - year was 105.835, down 0.04; the 10 - year was 108.15, down 0.04; the 30 - year was 112.17, down 0.03 [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 98.7693, up 0.23; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9646, down 57 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4952%, up 0.04%; the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.8312%, down 0.14 bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, down 4 bp [3]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily increases, while industries such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking had declines [6]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 21, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $59.52, up 0.3%; ICE Brent crude was at $64.62, up 0.67%; NYMEX natural gas was at $3.891, up 25.39%; ICE UK natural gas was at $105.29, up 12.07% [9]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at $4769.1, up 3.78%; COMEX silver was at $94.46, up 6.69% [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was at $12810, up 0.44%; LME aluminum was at $3115, up 0.24%; LME zinc was at $3175, up 0.06% [9]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at $1053, down 0.45%; CBOT soybean oil was at $54.05, up 2.83%; CBOT corn was at $424, down 0.18% [9]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodities rose. Chemicals, new energy materials, non - metal building materials, energy products, etc. all had increases, while precious metals had declines [14]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, and consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic. Attention should be paid to upcoming GDP and inflation data [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, and in 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - **Asset Views**: The scenario of no interest rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may adjust, while in the medium - term, it is recommended to go long on certain assets [14]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock markets continue to wait for the main line, and bond markets still have disturbing factors. The short - term judgments for stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are oscillatory rise, oscillation, and oscillation respectively [15]. - **Precious Metals**: After oscillatory adjustment, they maintain an upward trend. Gold and silver are expected to rise oscillatory [15]. - **Shipping**: Pay attention to the resumption of voyages in the far - month. The short - term judgment for the container shipping European line is oscillation [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Fundamentals are lackluster. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - situation to become clearer. Base metals are oscillating and consolidating. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade tension eases slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Agriculture**: Sentiment warms up but trends diverge. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate or decline oscillatory [17].

Core Insights - The core PCE price index for November 2025 in the U.S. is reported at an annual rate of 2.8% and a monthly rate of 0.2%, both meeting expectations [2] - The PCE data indicates that inflation in the U.S. economy has not significantly rebounded, providing sufficient room for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on monetary policy suggests that the interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in the January meeting [2] Monetary Policy Implications - Despite pressure from the U.S. government, Powell is determined to uphold the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that interest rates may remain stable until at least May when he is expected to step down [2] - The potential for sustained interest rates implies that negative pressures on the U.S. economy from interest rates will not be alleviated in the short term, complicating the maintenance of current economic growth [2] Economic Outlook - The Trump administration is expected to strive to maintain economic growth trends despite the pressures of the midterm elections, but this does not eliminate the negative pressures facing the U.S. economy [2] - Investors are advised to approach the situation with caution due to the possibility of unusual economic conditions arising [2]