美国商务部长卢特尼克表示，美欧贸易协议仍有许多问题尚待协商，并称“接下来还有不少商讨的空间”。“当然，他们今天早上还打电话来讨论其他议题，比如数字服务、税收以及欧盟对美国科技公司的攻击——这些都会被摆上谈判桌。”卢特尼克补充说：“还有一些是他们希望纳入协议的，比如钢铁和铝产品，这次并未被包括在内，也将成为接下来的谈判内容。” ...

南非表示仍致力于与美国就一项贸易协议进行谈判。 ...

IMF：英国经济增长将连续两年快于欧洲其他国家 金十数据7月29日讯，根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，英国今明两年的经济增速将超过欧洲其 他主要经济体，但在七国集团中仍落后于美国和加拿大。《世界经济展望》显示，IMF上调了全球经济 增长预期，以反映贸易背景的改善和特朗普总统的《大而美法案》带来的财政刺激。英国、欧盟、日本 等多国已与美国达成贸易协议，国际货币基金组织表示，其最新预测中使用的美国实际关税税率为 17.3%，低于4月份的24.4%，而世界其他地区的实际关税税率为3.5%，低于此前的4.1%。 ...

IMF首席经济学家古兰沙：将不得不看看这些贸易协议是否能坚持下去，或者它们是否会被破坏。 ...

IMF首席经济学家古兰沙：我们正在仔细研究美国与日本、欧盟的贸易协议细节。 ...

印度预计将在9月或10月与美国达成贸易协议。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-India trade negotiations is the significant differences in trade policies, particularly in sectors like automobiles, steel, and agriculture [1][4] - The US Trade Representative, Jamison Greer, emphasized the need for more negotiations to assess India's willingness to lower trade barriers and open markets [1][3] - The US aims to secure greater market access for its agricultural products in India, while India is concerned about the impact on its farmers and seeks to maintain protective tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - The bilateral trade volume between India and the US is projected to be approximately $129 billion in 2024, with a trade deficit of $45.7 billion for the US [3] - India's exports to the US increased by 23.53% to $8.3 billion in June, while imports decreased by 10.61% to around $4 billion [3] - India is pushing for the removal of additional tariffs and seeking concessions in labor-intensive sectors, aiming for competitive tariff levels compared to other Asian countries [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite reaching a trade agreement with the US, the euro has significantly depreciated, dropping by 1.3% due to criticism from European officials who believe the agreement heavily favors the US [1][2] - The sentiment in the European market is complex, with European stock markets and the euro weakening despite the avoidance of large-scale tariffs, driven by concerns over growth prospects and an imbalanced trade structure [2] - The EuroStoxx50 index fell by over 1%, while the UK FTSE 100 index ended an eight-day rising streak, reflecting a cautious market risk sentiment [2] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the US-EU trade agreement, the euro initially rebounded from a key support level of 1.1600 to 1.1750, but the gains quickly faded due to increasing political resistance and renewed economic concerns in the eurozone [3] - Technical analysis indicates strong resistance in the 1.1780 – 1.1800 range, with a critical support level at 1.1600; a break below this level could signal deeper retracement [5] - Future market focus will be on two key developments: the resumption of US-China trade negotiations in Stockholm and the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, where signals regarding inflation, labor market, and monetary policy outlook will be closely monitored [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading agreements are reached in batches, the risk - aversion demand continues to decline, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases. Strong employment and inflation suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and slightly weaker. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.33% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements reduce risk - aversion demand, and the US economic stagflation risk and strong employment and inflation suppress interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: Sino - US trade talks and US - EU agreement reduce trade risks [1]. - **Monetary**: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under upward pressure [1]. - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the weak RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Data**: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex gold main contract closed at $3314.00 per ounce, down 0.73% from the previous day [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai gold among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. - **Data**: Various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex silver main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous day [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai silver among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **US Monetary Policy**: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, reserve balance interest rate, etc. have changed. The Fed's total assets are $67089.39 billion, down $16.72 billion from the previous period [7]. - **Inflation Data**: US inflation data such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. show certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Economic Growth**: US economic growth data such as GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, etc. are presented. GDP's annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Other Data**: Data on various aspects such as international trade, central bank gold reserves, and risk - aversion and commodity - related indexes are provided [9][10]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The latest Fed interest rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool are given, showing the probability distribution of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 [11].

市场对美欧协议的冷淡反应，标志着特朗普贸易政策激发市场剧烈波动的能力持续衰减。4月2日宣布加 征关税计划引发的抛售过后，市场逐渐意识到最初税率只是谈判筹码，15%的关税水平才是现状，后续 波动随之减弱。 智通财经APP注意到，尽管特朗普称之为"史上最重磅协议"，但这份美欧贸易协定未能提振市场风险偏 好，反映出每份新协议带来的边际效应正在递减。 周一的全球市场反应平淡：欧洲股市与欧元小幅下跌，美股基本持平。相比之下，上周美日贸易协定公 布时，日美股市均大幅上涨。 虽然投资者的注意力正在从特朗普的贸易协议转移，但仍有能搅动市场的协议——美中贸易协定。美国 商务部长卢特尼克表示，延长现行贸易休战90天是两国斯德哥尔摩会谈最可能的结果。 Global X Management投资策略师Billy Leung指出，"市场有些审美疲劳了，""别忘了我们正面临多重不 确定性：美中谈判进入第二天、更多贸易协议待公布、美联储决议在即、还有美股巨头财报。" 富达国际香港投资组合经理Taosha Wang在接受采访时表示，"贸易头条真正撼动市场的可能性已显著降 低，""我认为与关税相关的尾部风险已大幅减弱。" 美欧协议未能刺激风险 ...