Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has dropped to a new low for the same period in 2023, supporting a positive outlook for copper prices as macroeconomic expectations improve [1]. - As of April 30, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,220 RMB/ton, down 0.9% from the previous week, while the LME copper closing price was 9,366 USD/ton, down 0.1% [1]. - The copper industry is currently experiencing a divergence between macroeconomic pressures and supply-demand tensions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory at a near five-year low providing price support [1][2]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 28.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.7% [2]. - As of April 30, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 836,000 tons, up 4.2% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 431,000 tons, the highest for the same period in nearly six years, down 4.5% week-on-week [2]. Supply - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and up 14.3% year-on-year [3]. - The copper concentrate production in China for December 2024 was 152,000 tons, up 9.5% month-on-month and up 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,371 RMB/ton as of April 30, 2025, down 285 RMB/ton from the previous week [2]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate was 89.45%, down 1.78 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to grow by 14.3% year-on-year in July 2025, indicating strong demand in the home appliance sector [3][97]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 54.4% in March 2025, up 14 percentage points month-on-month but down 8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Futures - As of April 30, 2025, the active SHFE copper contract had a holding of 169,000 lots, up 1.5% week-on-week [4]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 19,000 lots, down 21.8% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].

截至2025年4月30日当周，沪铜期货主力合约收于77220元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持2621 手。 上周（4月28日-4月30日）市场上看，沪铜期货周内开盘报77510元/吨，最高触及77990元/吨，最低下探 至77010元/吨，周度下跌0.28%。 节前，铜价一度表现坚挺，小幅上行，周三晚间国内休市，海外出现大跌，LME铜大跌3.4%，之后两 交易日，LME铜有所反弹，但未能完全收复周三跌幅，至收盘报于9356美元，周度基本持平，微跌 0.04%。交易建议：短期铜价虽大概率仍能维持坚挺，甚至小幅上行，但7.8万上方风险加大，不建议继 续大幅看多铜价交易，上方风险较高，可转为博弈利空对铜价的影响，可考虑适量买入看跌期权。 国信期货：沪铜预计震荡运行 宏观方面，据消息，美国世界大型企业研究会29日发布数据显示，受预期恶化影响，美国4月消费者信 心指数连续第五个月下降，跌至新冠疫情以来的最低水平，反映出对未来的普遍悲观看法。基本面仍对 铜价有支撑，国内铜库存持续去化，且持续低于去年同期水平。另一方面，市场也存有未来5月需求转 弱的担忧。整体而言，沪铜预计震荡，持续关注国内利好政策以及宏观情绪的变化 ...

期货热点追踪 沪铜早盘小幅走低，分析师称供应担忧已被定价？铜价窄幅震荡何时选择方向？ 相关链接 ...

来源：华龙期货 作者：华龙期货 研报正文 一、行情复盘 (一)期货价格 根据上海期货交易所数据统计，上周，沪铜期货主力合约AL2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格范围在 74920 元/吨附近至最高 76485 元/吨左右。 根据伦敦金属交易所数据统计，上周，LME 铜期货价格以震荡趋势运行，LME铜期货合约价格在 9033-9274 美元/吨附近运行。 二、现货分析 长江有色金属网数据显示，截止至 2025 年 4 月 18 日，上海物贸铜平均价为76,295元/吨，长江有色市 场 1#电解铜平均价为 76,400 元/吨，较上一交易日增加170 元/吨;上海、广东、重庆、天津四地现货价 格分别为 76,150 元/吨、76,200 元/吨、76,260 元/吨、76,230元/吨。截止至 2025 年 4 月 18 日，电解铜 升贴水维持在上升95 元/吨附近，较上一交易日上涨 75 元/吨。 三、供需情况 (一)精炼铜产量保持增长 (二)铜材月度产量环比下降明显 万得资讯数据显示，截止至 2025 年 3 月，铜材月度产量为212.52 万吨，环比下降14.76万吨。截止至 2025 年 3 月，中国汽车 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward trend of Shanghai copper has slowed down, and the rebound momentum since the bottom last week is weakening. Although the short - term Shanghai copper needs to pay attention to the pressure near 76,470, considering the widening of the COMEX spread again, it is expected that the copper price is also difficult to break the downward space [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper's upward trend slowed down and closed with a negative line. On the last trading day of the 04 contract, the total position decreased by 7,610 lots, and the price difference between the 05 - 06 contracts widened to 100. The macro situation lacks new positive factors, and the positive effect brought by the suspension of US counter - tariffs is almost over [9]. - On the spot market's delivery day, the premium rebounded, but the trading volume was mediocre. The Shanghai - London ratio slightly recovered, but the market trading was still mediocre. The premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained unchanged. The COMEX - LME price difference widened to $1,010/ton, and the COMEX inventory continued to increase. The logic of the US imposing tariffs on copper has returned to the market's focus [9]. - Both domestic and foreign copper prices are hovering near the multi - empty line. The domestic spot market's procurement has slowed down under the influence of rising copper prices. The short - term Shanghai copper needs to continue to pay attention to the pressure near 76,470, but considering the re - widening of the COMEX spread, it is difficult for the copper price to break the downward space [9]. 3.2 Industry News - Osisko Metals' preliminary drilling results of its Gaspé copper project in eastern Quebec exceeded expectations. The company is working to expand the resources of the Gaspé copper system, aiming to reopen the former Noranda mine in Murdochville. It plans to obtain a license and start construction in the early 2030s, with an estimated initial capital expenditure of about C$1.8 billion [10]. - Chile's state - owned mining company Enami is negotiating with manufacturers and trading companies interested in financing a smelting project worth over $1.4 billion. Although it seems to have no commercial significance to invest in smelting due to global supply glut, the project is considered feasible because it will use more efficient technology and produce by - products such as gold and sulfuric acid [10][11]. - Jintian Co., Ltd. reported that its operating income in 2024 was 124.161 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.36%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 462 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.29%. From 2021 to 2024, the company's copper product output had an annual compound growth rate of 8%. In 2024, its total output of copper and copper alloy materials was 1.9162 million tons, accounting for 9% of China's total copper processing materials output. Its overseas main business income was 12.161 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.75%, accounting for 10.76% of the company's main business income. The overseas sales volume of its copper products such as copper tubes, magnet wires, and copper strips was 169,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.58% [11].

期货热点追踪 分析师认为目前铜价格已反映大部分利空消息，且Comex铜期货对LME三个月期铜的溢价已经下降了 52%，未来铜价最有可能得路径是…… 相关链接 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sentiment surrounding trade conflicts has a greater impact than the actual effects, with expectations for copper prices to stabilize after sentiment dissipates [1][4]. - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tight balance in 2025, with supply constraints expected to gradually materialize, supporting a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 78,860 CNY/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week, while LME copper closed at 8,780 USD/ton, down 10.4% week-on-week [1][17]. - The report notes a significant drop in copper prices due to the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners [1]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 6.2%, while LME copper inventory fell by 1.0% [2][25]. - As of April 3, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 648,000 tons, down 18.3% week-on-week [2][46]. Supply - In March 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached 1,122,100 tons, up 6.0% month-on-month and 12.3% year-on-year [3][65]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 917 CNY/ton as of April 3, 2025, down 1,528 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][54]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 8.2 percentage points to 81.06% as of April 3, 2025 [3][75]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, is expected to see production increases of 9.1%, 13.0%, and 15.9% in April, May, and June 2025, respectively [3][94]. Futures Market - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions also fell by 12.0% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices in 2025, recommending stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Minmetals Resources [4][5].