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首席论势|连平:未来十年,民间投资年均增速将达5%~7%
Guang Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-08-01 08:53
"《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》的实施,将对民营经济的持续高质量发展产生不可估量的动 力。"广开首席产业研究院院长连平表示,未来,民营经济将为我国经济高质量发展作出新的贡献,成 为推动中国经济行稳致远的关键力量之一。 连平关注到,近年来,在人工智能、机器人、低空经济、生物医药等前沿领域,民营企业的身影随处可 见,已经涌现出一批耀眼的明星企业。目前,部分民营企业已经具备高技术含量和高附加值的特征,国 家高新技术企业中民营企业占比扩大至92%以上。此外,在政策的大力扶持下,民营企业牵头承担国家 重大技术攻关任务的数量呈现出显著增加的趋势,所涉及的范围也在不断扩展。 "未来更多民营企业有望乘着新一轮科技革命浪潮,在关键核心技术领域开展攻关,在科技创新中发挥 更大作用。"连平预计,到2035年民营企业研发投入占全社会比重将突破60%,技术创新成果贡献率达 80%以上,为全球科技创新贡献"中国方案"。 连平提到,民间投资将成为拉动投资增长的重要新生力量。一系列政策"组合拳"的实施带动民间投资信 心稳步修复。今年上半年,扣除房地产开发投资后,民间投资增长达6.6%;分行业看,制造业民间投 资增长11.5%,增速比全部制 ...
解读:年中政治局会议的经济信号
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-01 06:51
本刊记者 王红茹 7月30日,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势,并部署下半年经济工作。上半年经济数据刚刚发布,此次会议备受国内外关注。 《中国经济周刊》记者专访了全国政协委员、中国财政科学研究院原院长刘尚希,解读会议内涵。 这种政策取向既保持了连续性,又为应对不确定性预留了空间。 2 《中国经济周刊》:会议指出,宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。如何理解? 刘尚希:去年年底中央经济工作会议和今年政府工作报告均强调要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策",此次会议提出的"持续发力",正是对这一政策基调的 延续和坚持。 需要特别注意的是,这些政策表述都具有特定的时代背景和政策语境,必须结合具体形势理解。自去年9月26日中央政治局会议部署一揽子增量政策以 来,直至今年上半年两会期间,宏观政策始终保持积极有为的基调,这正是"持续发力"的实质内涵。 而"适时加力"则是本次会议提出的新要求,意味着要根据形势变化灵活调整政策力度,必要时出台新的政策措施。这体现了相机抉择的宏观调控策略,因 为面对诸多难以预见的变量因素,必须保持政策灵活性和应变能力。 《中国经济周刊》:会议着重强调要"有效释放内需潜力",与中央经济工作会议提 ...
加大扩投资力度 激活民间投资活力 下半年经济工作部署→
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 23:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of investment in expanding domestic demand and the need for high-quality promotion of "two重" construction to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment [1][3] - The annual budget for "two重" construction projects has been fully allocated at 800 billion yuan, which is expected to support investment in the second half of the year as these projects are implemented [3] - There is an expectation for increased policy support in major infrastructure construction, industrial transformation, high-tech applications, and urban renewal in the second half of the year [5] Group 2 - The focus will be on cultivating internationally competitive emerging pillar industries, particularly in advanced manufacturing and new-generation information technology, with policies aimed at transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency improvement" [9] - The initiative to deepen the construction of a unified national market aims to optimize market competition order and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises, which is significant for current economic development [11] - The emphasis will shift towards technological innovation and product quality improvement, with a focus on optimizing capacity in key industries to enhance overall technological innovation, green development, and international competitiveness [14][16]
深圳上半年GDP同比增长5.1% 多个主要指标增速较一季度加快
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-30 12:47
Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shenzhen's GDP reached 1.83 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% at constant prices [1] - Major economic indicators showed accelerated growth compared to the first quarter, indicating a stable and improving economic trend [1] Industrial and Service Sector - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a slight acceleration of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - The service sector's added value was 1.18 trillion yuan, growing by 6.1% year-on-year, also up by 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 494.868 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in real estate development investment, which fell by 15.1% [1] - Excluding real estate, private investment grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with private industrial investment increasing by 10.6% [1] - Infrastructure investment rose by 7.7% year-on-year, while industrial technological transformation investment surged by 47.1% [1] Foreign Trade - In the first half of 2025, Shenzhen's total import and export volume was 2.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 1.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Exports amounted to 1.31 trillion yuan, down by 7.0% year-on-year, while imports increased by 9.5% to 858.864 billion yuan [2] - The decline in exports was attributed to a high base from the previous year when foreign trade growth was rapid [2]
陕西上半年房地产领域稳定恢复,房地产开发投资同比增长0.9%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 15:55
Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, Shaanxi Province achieved a GDP of 1,682.801 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 78.227 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.9% [1] - The secondary industry added value was 680.707 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 923.867 billion yuan, increasing by 5.1% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the province grew by 5.6% year-on-year [1] - Investment in the primary industry increased by 16.1%, while the secondary industry saw a growth of 19.2% [1] - The tertiary industry experienced a decline of 1.2% in investment [1] - Industrial investment maintained rapid growth at 19.8%, with manufacturing investment rising by 26.3% and industrial technological transformation investment increasing by 22.4% [1] - Private investment showed enhanced vitality, growing by 13.8%, particularly in transportation, storage, and postal services, which saw a 37.2% increase [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is stabilizing, with real estate development investment increasing by 0.9% year-on-year [1] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing grew by 3.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]
激发民间投资活力 促进民营经济高质量发展——全国工商联开展二〇二五年度重点考察调研(调查研究 凝聚共识)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-07-21 21:57
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law is expected to significantly enhance the development prospects of the private economy, encouraging private enterprises and entrepreneurs to leverage policy dividends to stimulate private investment and expand domestic demand [1]. Group 1: Insights from Company Visits - The research team visited Hengyin Financial Technology Co., Ltd., where the company expressed that the Private Economy Promotion Law has strengthened their confidence and will focus on technological innovation to support the domestic transformation of financial self-service equipment [2]. - Tianjin Rongcheng Group showcased its diversified business model, evolving from a single focus on steel waste recycling to a multi-faceted approach that integrates traditional manufacturing with intelligent manufacturing and cultural elements [2]. - The research team emphasized the need for traditional industries to upgrade by targeting new productive forces and accelerating the transition from old to new growth drivers [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - The research team engaged with companies to understand the challenges faced in innovation and industrial upgrading, gathering suggestions on policy guidance and mechanism innovation to stimulate private investment [3]. - At Shanxi Zhonggang Stainless Steel Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., the team inquired about R&D progress, while at Shanxi Baixin Information Technology Co., Ltd., they encouraged a focus on key areas for independent innovation and increased investment in technological innovation [3]. Group 3: Creating a Supportive Environment - The research team noted a positive trend in private investment, particularly in emerging and future industries, and plans to conduct activities aimed at resolving issues faced by private enterprises and improving the business environment [4]. - The Tianjin Tiankai Higher Education Science and Technology Innovation Park was highlighted for its strong innovation atmosphere and support for startups, with a focus on addressing the pain points of enterprises through comprehensive service systems [4]. Group 4: Strategic Insights from Industry Leaders - Leaders from companies like Reap Bio Co., Ltd. emphasized the importance of confidence in the Chinese economy and the need for bold innovation and cross-industry collaboration to achieve industrial transformation [5]. Group 5: Data-Driven Decision Making - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce conducted extensive surveys and discussions with over 126,000 private enterprises to understand the current state and challenges of private investment, encouraging entrepreneurs to adapt to the changing economic landscape [6]. - The research team recognized that the vibrancy of private investment is crucial for high-quality development and innovation, and they aim to incorporate the feedback from private entrepreneurs into their reports for informed decision-making by central authorities [6].
我国高质量发展投资有较大潜力
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-07-21 02:42
Investment Growth Overview - In the first half of the year, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, showing a decline compared to earlier months [1] - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a cautious investment sentiment among private enterprises [1][3] - The nominal growth rate of investment has slowed, but the actual growth rate, adjusted for price factors, remained stable at 5.3% [2] Sector-Specific Insights - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall investment growth and contributing 1.8 percentage points to total investment growth [4] - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as aerospace and computer equipment, experienced double-digit growth rates [1] - High-tech service industry investment rose by 8.6%, with information services seeing a remarkable increase of 37.4% [4] Policy and Structural Changes - The "Two New" and "Two Heavy" policies have positively impacted investment structure, leading to a 17.3% increase in equipment and tool purchases [4] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% year-on-year, contributing 1.0 percentage points to total investment growth, with water transportation and water management investments increasing by 21.8% and 15.4%, respectively [4] Challenges and Future Outlook - External uncertainties and weak domestic demand have affected investment performance, particularly in the second quarter [5][7] - The average collection period for accounts receivable among large private enterprises exceeded 70 days, indicating liquidity issues [7] - To stimulate private investment, the government is reducing market entry barriers and introducing over 3,200 new projects worth more than 3 trillion yuan, focusing on key sectors like transportation and energy [7][8]
连平:当下亟需出台更有力度的针对性举措
和讯· 2025-07-18 09:47
Group 1 - The overall economic performance in China is stable with improvements in exports and consumption growth, while facing challenges from the real estate market and external uncertainties [1][2] - The real estate market remains a significant negative factor for economic performance, with sales declining over 10% year-on-year in major cities and liquidity pressures on developers [3][4][5] - Real estate investment is expected to fluctuate around -10%, contributing to a decline in nominal GDP growth by 0.75 percentage points [5][6] Group 2 - Private investment growth is weak, with a continuous decline in fixed asset investment since 2023, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate market [6][7] - Structural issues, including market access restrictions and increased regulatory scrutiny, are contributing to the low enthusiasm for private investment [6][7] - Consumer spending may face challenges due to potential resource shortages in policy support and a conservative consumption attitude among residents [7][8] Group 3 - Export performance is under pressure from U.S. tariffs and trade barriers, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries [8][9] - Domestic demand remains weak, leading to structural deflationary pressures, with CPI and PPI showing declines [10][11] - Local government finances are strained due to declining land sales and high debt repayment pressures, limiting infrastructure investment capabilities [11][12] Group 4 - Monetary policy needs to improve coordination with fiscal policy to effectively support economic growth [12][13] - There is a need for targeted measures to support the real estate sector and enhance liquidity for developers [14][15] - Increased support for private enterprises and consumer spending is essential to stimulate economic activity [16][17] Group 5 - Recommendations include expanding fiscal support for trade enterprises and enhancing capital market stability through various financial tools [20][21][22] - The government should implement measures to alleviate the financial burden on local governments and improve their investment capabilities [23][24] - A proactive monetary policy approach is necessary to address deflationary pressures and stabilize the economy [24][25]
国家统计局:现阶段固定资产投资潜力仍然非常大
news flash· 2025-07-15 03:02
国家统计局副局长盛来运今日在新闻发布会上表示:"现阶段固定资产投资潜力仍然非常大,要注重调 动民间投资的积极性。投资增速放缓不意味着投资空间收缩,现阶段高质量发展投资潜力非常大,比如 新质生产力领域,还有城市更新改造、民生"补短板"方面,都需要有效投资。所以,我们要更好地按照 高质量发展要求,优化投资布局,改善投资环境,充分调动民间投资积极性,持续推动投资健康发 展。"(人民财讯) ...
【省发展改革委】陕西征集2025年第二批全国重点民间投资项目
Shan Xi Ri Bao· 2025-07-08 23:57
Core Viewpoint - The provincial development and reform commission has issued a notice to solicit the second batch of key private investment projects for 2025, focusing on projects that are scientific, demonstrative, and require financing, environmental assessment, and land coordination support [1][2]. Group 1: Project Selection Criteria - The selected projects will prioritize major national engineering and shortfall projects in transportation, water conservancy, and logistics, as well as strategic emerging industries and future industry projects [1]. - Projects that promote regional coordinated development strategies, achieve "dual carbon" goals, and contribute to the construction of a beautiful China will be favored [1]. - New infrastructure projects and those in the fields of education, health, culture, sports, elderly care, and childcare will also be prioritized [1]. Group 2: Application Requirements - Applications must comply with the National Key Private Investment Project Library Management Measures and be classified as private fixed asset investment projects [2]. - Projects should align with national major strategies, macro-control policies, and relevant planning requirements, with a total investment scale of at least 1 billion yuan (approximately 150 million USD) [2]. - The project unit and its controlling shareholders must not have significant violations or accidents in the past three years and must be controlled by individuals with Chinese nationality [2].