美国经济的未来走向似乎正被两股力量拉扯。一方面，通胀预期的上升引发了市场的关注；另一方面， 就业市场的不确定性又为经济增长蒙上了阴影。纽约联储发布的最新月度调查揭示了这一复杂局面：美 国消费者的中期通胀预期在4月攀升至近三年的高点，而对就业市场的看法却出现了明显的恶化。 调查显示，消费者对未来三年通胀的预估中值在4月升至3.2%，这是自2022年7月以来的最高水平。这 一数据的变化可能暗示着消费者对未来物价上涨的担忧正在加剧。然而，这种担忧并非全面性的，因为 对未来一年通胀率的预期保持稳定，而对长期通胀率的预期甚至小幅降至2.7%。这种短期与中期通胀 预期的分化，反映出消费者对当前经济形势的复杂认知：他们既担心近期物价的快速上涨，又对长期经 济的稳定性保持一定的信心。 美联储官员正在密切关注这一趋势。他们试图通过消费者对未来物价压力的预期来评估政策变化，尤其 是贸易政策调整，是否会引发持续的通胀。关税政策的不确定性无疑是当前经济中的一个重要变量。关 税的范围和持续时间尚不明确，这可能导致消费者对未来通胀的不确定性加剧。贸易政策的变化不仅影 响到企业的生产成本和供应链布局，也可能通过进口商品价格的上涨传导至消费 ...

数据显示，美国家庭对当前及未来经济状况的评估急转直下，收入增长预期放缓，就业前景悲观情绪升 温，但消费支出预期却逆势增长，形成"收入悲观、消费顽强"的矛盾格局。 财务信心受挫，收入与就业预期双降 新华财经北京5月9日电 纽约联邦储备银行周四发布的消费者预期调查报告显示，美国总统特朗普4月发 起的全球贸易战已对美国民众财务信心造成显著冲击。 4月调查结果显示，美国民众对财务状况的乐观度较3月明显下滑。 受访者对未来收入和工资增长的预期普遍下调，失业率上升预期增强，求职难度加大的担忧亦同步攀 升。尽管经济不确定性增加，消费者短期支出预期却意外增长，折射出市场对即期消费的依赖与长期收 入信心不足的背离。 通胀预期分化，多领域价格压力持续 通胀预期呈现结构性差异：1年期通胀预期持平于3.6%，3年期预期升至3.2%（为2022年7月以来最 高），5年期预期微降至2.7%。公众对房租、汽油价格及大学学费的涨价预期显著升温，房价年度涨幅 预期从3%提至3.3%，显示通胀压力仍广泛存在于民生关键领域。 美联储维稳利率，政策应对存挑战 美联储周四宣布维持短期利率不变。尽管决策者认为经济总体健康，但特朗普政府的关税政策被视作潜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market closed higher, driven by multiple factors including AI chip policies and trade negotiations, with Nvidia's strong performance highlighting the impact of AI technology on market dynamics [2][3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones index rose by 0.70% to close at 41,113.97 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.43% to 5,631.28 points, and the Nasdaq index saw a slight increase of 0.27% to 17,738.16 points [3]. - The market's upward movement was influenced by positive news regarding U.S.-China trade talks, a temporary pullback following the Federal Reserve's statement on rising unemployment and inflation risks, and a late surge due to news of potential AI chip export restrictions being lifted [3]. Technology Sector Dynamics - Nvidia's stock surged over 3%, with its market capitalization surpassing $3 trillion, reflecting its leading position in the AI chip sector and the anticipated policy changes [3]. - In contrast, Alphabet, Google's parent company, experienced a significant drop of over 7%, losing more than $137.4 billion in market value due to concerns over Apple's plans to launch an AI search engine and potentially end its default search partnership with Google [3]. Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 2.34%, with major Chinese companies like Alibaba and JD.com facing declines, attributed to uncertainties in trade policies despite positive signals from U.S.-China talks [4]. - However, companies like Li Auto and Zeekr showed resilience, with Li Auto's stock rising over 2% and Zeekr's stock increasing by 11.5%, indicating market recognition of the global expansion of Chinese new energy brands [4]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes, while emphasizing the increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [5]. - The Fed's statement was interpreted as a balanced assessment of the current economic situation, suggesting that any policy adjustments would require careful consideration of growth and inflation targets [5]. Conclusion - The recent market movements reflect a complex interplay of technological advancements, trade policy uncertainties, and monetary policy stability, with AI technology reshaping valuation logic in the tech sector and presenting new investment opportunities [6].

美国商务部长卢特尼克：已允许罗尔斯·罗伊斯发动机及飞机零部件免关税进口。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue was $936 million, up 8% year over year and at the high end of guidance [14][7] - Gross margin for the first quarter was 47.4%, also at the high end of guidance [18] - Net earnings per diluted share were $1.71, exceeding the high end of guidance [20] - Free cash flow for the first quarter was strong at $123 million, over 100% of net earnings [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor revenue was $413 million, up 3% sequentially and 18% year over year [16] - Electronics and packaging revenue was $253 million, similar to the previous quarter and up 22% year over year [17] - Specialty industrial revenue was $270 million, down 4% sequentially and down 13% year over year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor market showed modest increases in demand, particularly for NAND products [9] - Electronics and packaging market saw strong orders for flexible PCB drilling equipment and chemistry equipment [10] - Specialty industrial market faced softness, particularly in automotive applications [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Company is focused on managing through uncertainties related to trade policies while capitalizing on market recovery [13] - Emphasis on maintaining strong customer relationships and leveraging a broad portfolio of technologies [13] - Long-term capital allocation priorities include investing in organic growth and reducing leverage [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted early signs of improvement in demand across end markets despite trade policy uncertainties [7] - Anticipated near-term impacts on margins due to supply chain optimization in response to geopolitical dynamics [8] - Confidence in the ability to manage through uncertainties and maintain strong financial performance [13] Other Important Information - Company closed the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion in liquidity [21] - Voluntary principal prepayment of $100 million was made to reduce credit spreads [21] - Dividend of $0.22 per share was paid during the quarter [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Momentum in NAND upgrades - Management indicated that inventory normalization in the NAND market is a factor driving upgrades, with expectations for continued upgrades [28][29] Question: Impact of tariffs on gross margins - Management discussed ongoing engagement with customers and suppliers to mitigate tariff impacts, noting no current top-line impact from tariffs [38][39] Question: Outlook for the second half of the year - Management expressed optimism for stable demand and potential growth in semiconductor and electronics markets, but acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties [42] Question: Specialty industrial market trends - Management highlighted softness in automotive and general industrial markets, attributing it to macroeconomic factors and tariffs [88] Question: Growth rate expectations for chemistry business - Management expects the PCB industry to grow at GDP plus 300 basis points, with AI driving incremental growth [92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue was $936 million, up 8% year over year and at the high end of guidance [13][6] - Gross margin for the first quarter was 47.4%, also at the high end of guidance [17] - Net earnings per diluted share were $1.71, exceeding the high end of guidance [19] - Free cash flow for the first quarter was strong at $123 million, over 100% of net earnings [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor revenue was $413 million, up 3% sequentially and 18% year over year [14] - Electronics and packaging revenue was $253 million, similar to the previous quarter and up 22% year over year [15] - Specialty industrial revenue was $270 million, down 4% sequentially and 13% year over year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor market showed modest increases in demand, particularly for NAND products [8] - Electronics and packaging market saw increased sales driven by flexible PCB drilling equipment and chemistry equipment [9] - Specialty industrial market faced softness, particularly in automotive applications [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Company is focused on managing through uncertainties related to trade policies while capitalizing on market recovery [12] - Emphasis on maintaining strong customer relationships and leveraging a broad portfolio of technologies [12] - Continued investment in organic growth opportunities and debt reduction strategies [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted early signs of improvement in demand across end markets despite trade policy uncertainties [6] - Anticipated near-term impact on margins due to supply chain optimization in response to geopolitical changes [7] - Confidence in the ability to outperform as market recovery gains momentum [9] Other Important Information - Company closed the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion in liquidity [20] - Plans for a voluntary prepayment on term loans in the current quarter [20] - Dividend of $0.22 per share was paid during the quarter [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: System upgrades for memory tools - Management indicated that inventory burn for the NAND market has normalized, leading to increased upgrades [27][28] Question: Impact of tariffs on gross margins - Management stated that tariffs could impact gross margins by up to 100 basis points, but no top-line impact has been observed yet [36][38] Question: Outlook for the second half of the year - Management expressed optimism for stable demand and potential growth, but noted macroeconomic uncertainties due to tariffs [40][41] Question: Strength in NAND upgrades - Management clarified that upgrades are the primary driver of strength in the NAND market, with inventory normalization contributing positively [45][46] Question: Specialty industrial market trends - Management highlighted that the automotive sector remains muted, with uncertainty due to tariffs affecting customer behavior [90][91] Question: Growth rate expectations for chemistry business - Management indicated that the PCB industry is expected to grow at GDP plus 300 basis points, with AI driving incremental growth [93][94]

英国央行副行长隆巴尔代利：目前尚不清楚贸易政策是否具有抑制通胀的作用。 ...

交易策略： 现货黄金 反弹至3400.00企稳做空，目标3360.00 5月8日凌晨，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布了5月议息会议决定，维持联邦基金目标利率区间 4.25%-4.50%不变，缩表节奏保持不变。会后鲍威尔发言，对当前经济有信心，GDP和目前接近充分就业状态 肯定当前经济表现，但也指出经济前景的不确定性上升，这在很大程度上反映了对贸易政策的担忧。贸易政策 变化让潜在经济健康状况无法真实反映，如何影响未来消费和投资还有待观察。认为关税对通胀的影响可能是 一次性的，但如果关税持续大幅增加，其对通胀的影响可能会更持久，持续时长取决于关税的规模、传导时滞 以及通胀预期的锚定。 同时指出，新政府的"贸易、移民、财政、监管"四大政策变革对货币政策路径产生影响，这些政策仍在演变 中，对经济的影响高度不确定。降息的必要条件是不确定性消除，关税通胀有更准确的预估，充分条件则是就 业风险增加和通胀预期稳定。他还在答记者问时暗示6月大概率不会降息，在贸易谈判有进一步明确结果之 前，美联储的最优做法是观望等待、数据依赖。 总体而言，本次美联储5月议息会议表态偏鹰。会议强调了经济前景的不确定性和通胀风险，美联储将继 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，在贸易政策的方向更加确定之前，他不会急于降低借 贷成本，而贸易政策的方向必须由白宫来确定。鲍威尔和他的同事们周三维持利率不变，并在美国总统 特朗普上月宣布全面征收关税以来的首次会议上表示，通胀和失业率上升的风险已经增加。 鲍威尔说，这种情况将迫使美联储在降低借贷成本以支持就业市场和维持借贷成本以遏制物价压力之间 做出艰难选择。与此同时，他表示，关税范围和规模的不确定性——以及即将到来的贸易谈判的结果 ——将使政策制定者暂时搁置行动。周三，美联储利率制定委员会一致投票决定，将基准联邦基金利率 维持在去年12月以来的4.25%至4.5%的区间。 法国巴黎银行首席美国经济学家James Egelhof表示："在美国经济数据没有出现决定性转变的情况下， 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)似乎愿意无限期维持利率不变。FOMC正在等待确定，下一步行动是基于 经济走向衰退而降息，还是由于高通胀在经济中根深蒂固而采取更严格的政策。" New Century Advisors首席经济学家Claudia Sahm表示："我认为，总的来说，当我们观察美联储时，他 们现在的'宇宙主宰'氛围要 ...